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11 March 2020

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walrus

There goes your European holiday, and possibly mine. The President just shut down European travel.

Fred

Walrus,

Glad I made that last trip to Paris, though seeing Notre Dame on fire drove me to the edge. Still working on writing something about that worthy of SST.

Jack

Walrus

Fly to London and travel over. They’re not gonna test you since there’s not many test kits available.

I have first hand information of people who traveled over from China when there is purportedly a travel ban from China. They were not quarantined on arrival. In this case they arrived from a third country and it’s a-ok. There was no questioning or examination of their passport to determine if they’d been in the no-go zone recently.

It’s largely a sham. If the government was serious about preventing entry of infected persons they would test every passenger before they boarded all flights to the US.

Tidewater

Sir,

There's a headline glitch on "COVID-19". No big deal, but ...

The Twisted Genius

How do we quarantine a population like ours long enough to squash the spread of this virus? How do we prioritize physical health over economic health, at least temporarily? Once this pandemic dies down, one way or another, do we as a nation invest in the capacity to deal with future pandemics? It does seem our government doesn't know whether to sh*t or go blind on this one. I love that phrase too, Colonel Lang. I also learned it from my father who picked it up in the 45 to 47 Marine Corps.

I'm still watching the Everglades Challenge. It appears Rob Waddell and the Southern Cross were only a couple of nautical miles south of the Key Largo finish point a few hours ago.

Jack

This thread linked below and the video embedded of the South Korean press conference discussing their management plan is well worth the few minutes as it provides insight on what they did.

Rather than erecting and imposing physical and legal barriers, social barriers were created through social distancing.

New innovative ideas were taken seriously and enacted ASAP. World class IT programs were implemented

🚘 Drive thru testing

🛰 Utilization of GPS information for contact tracing.

🧳Travelers entering the country DL a self report app by KCDC to track symptoms and wherabouts.

https://twitter.com/hannahnammd/status/1237618148125409281?s=21

different clue

Since frequent hand-washing is going to be a part of circuit-breaking the fast spreading around of coronavirus, this little chart purporting to show frequently-missed areas of the hand during handwashing might be useful.

https://i.redd.it/twu6hs9fb4m41.jpg

Fred

Jack,

So rather the stopping all travel from china, even people purposely circumventing the ban like you describe, you do a test that may be negative due to the infected person being asymptomatic at that moment? The true question is how much of the spread of the virus is due to malicious actors circumventing the travel restrictions.

Eric Newhill

Via a friend (I agree with his thinking).

The outbreak in China, which was almost completely confined to the Hubei province, seems to be largely over, so it’s possible to look at the totals and draw tentative conclusions.

Overall, 80,796 infections were reported in China. Deaths numbered 3,169. This works out to a mortality rate of 3.9%. But this mortality rate applies only to cases severe enough to result in medical intervention. Many people recovered without seeing a doctor, so the actual mortality rate must be lower. It is estimated that up to 90% of patients will have mild (or no) symptoms, so the mortality rate of 3.9% could be too high by a factor of ten.

Hubei province's population is 57 million. Since 80,796 people got sick enough to be seen by doctors, we can say that severe infections occurred at a rate of 0.14%.

Wuhan, the largest city in the province and the epicenter of the outbreak, has a population of 11 million. If we make the unlikely assumption that all 80,796 reported infections occurred in Wuhan itself, this works out to a severe infection rate of 0.7%.

What do these figures mean for the US, with a population of 350 million? If we assume the same rate of severe infection and mortality as in Hubei province, then we could see about 490,000 Americans severely infected and about 19,509 fatalities.

Or if we look at a particular city - say, New York City, population 8 million - and compare it to the city of Wuhan, we could see 56,000 New Yorkers reporting a severe infection, and as many as 2,100 fatalities.

These numbers are probably too high, though. Most fatalities from the virus are attributable to complications like pneumonia and bronchitis, which are much less likely to prove lethal in First World countries.

The number of severe infections, if it reaches these levels, will surely strain our medical resources, especially if cases are concentrated in only a few localities. Still, it’s worth bearing in mind that this year's milder-than-usual flu season is already responsible for approximately 20,000 deaths in the US.

People with compromised immune systems should take special precautions, since they are at higher risk. For most Americans, the new coronavirus seems unlikely to prove much more hazardous than seasonal flu.

Jack

Fred,

I’m not suggesting not to have a ban. I’m suggesting do more than a sham ban. Check the passport of every passenger on arrival to determine if they’ve been in a banned area recently. What’s the point in a ban if there’s not gonna be any screening? While the tests are not 100% accurate and do provide some false negatives, testing all passengers to the US coupled with doing what the South Koreans did which was having every traveler’s contact information and tracking if they developed any symptoms will allow a proactive stance. Nothing is completely foolproof but testing at scale along with social distancing seem to at least bend the curve.

Taiwan with over a million visitors from China annually took an early and proactive stance. They learned from the SARS experience and didn’t just have a thousand page pandemic response plan collecting dust, they had staff who were competent who didn’t just say “it’s just the flu” and sat around. They acted proactively in December when it was not clear that it would be an epidemic. Their attitude was better to over-react than get caught with their pants down. They don’t have the downstream effects like we have now with colleges and conventions and business travel being voluntarily curtailed out of concern.

We seem to be good at lecturing the world about all kinds of things and hollering shining city on the hill but when it comes to actually delivering during a domestic emergency we find that we’re like the 3 Stooges.

BillWade

Different Clue mentioned hand-washing. If you, like me, are washing your hands more frequently and using wet-wipes, it's important to also use a hand moisturizer as well - once a day anyways.

Watch out for very stupid people, we knew there was an emergency event in Miami last night but didn't find out till this morning what it was: a man quite ill somehow got himself tested for coronavirus and then hopped on a plane from NY to Palm Beach. He received a call that he was positive for the virus while still on the ground in NY but didn't tell anyone till the plane landed.

Lawrence Kart

"I recall the days when AIDS was going to kill us all. But here we are."

Yes, here we are, minus approximately 32 million people.

Also, did anyone say, "AIDS was going to kill us all"? Didn't the list of those who died of AIDS consist almost exclusively of drug users who share needles and those who engage in unprotected gay sex or unprotected non-gay sex with those who already were HIV positive?

Jim S

https://knowledgeofhealth.com/trump-halts-cdc-fearmongering/

This is ten days old but I haven't seen it here: by Bill Sardi based on an interview with Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD. I'm not familiar with the Dr; Sardi may be considered an "alternative medicine" advocate by the MSM. I haven't seen the interview itself.

This discusses the hypothesis that the epidemic consists of novel flu + TB, making comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic (which originated in Kansas). TB is a going concern in China, less so in the US, but not unheard of.

My sense is that this line of discussion has been taken up to some degree by the medical community. Would any professional here be able to comment?

Eric Newhill

Larry Kart,
AIDS has killed around 700K people in the US since first recognized in 1981. And yes, most of those fatalities are drug users, homosexuals and assorted idiots and degenerates. If you take Africa and Haiti out of equation and stick to civilized countries, AIDS was never a big threat. I must remember the 80s differently than you do. I recall a hysteria over HIV/AIDS, how it was going to wipe out healthcare workers, first responders and lots and lots of normal people. Part of the hysteria was homosexual propaganda that anal sex is no different from normal heterosexual sex, but it was eventually proven that HIV doesn't spread very easily via normal heterosexual sex. You pretty much had to be an irresponsible idiot to contract HIV/AIDS. And thus the panic died out in civilized countries.

walrus

Eric Newhill. The epidemic is over in China because the government took immediate and drastic action to enforce quarantine in Hubei and surrounding provinces. People were locked, even welded, into their homes and businesses were closed. This was enforced by Police at gunpoint.

America is legally and ethically incapable of doing the same. We will have to come up with another plan.

English Outsider

Fred - it's mucky stats, this thing, and the epidemiologists must be having a hell of a difficult time modeling it.

OK, we all know it's flatten the curve, but go all out on that, close everything and do maximum self-isolating, and the economy crumbles. Even if one disregards that, such extreme measures to control the spread impact the health workers themselves; and also those making or distributing medical equipment. Not the sort of effect you want.

And of course one cannot in any case disregard the financial/economic impact. If that's not put into the model you could - to take an extreme case - save the maximum number of people but starve many more. Lesser versions of that extreme case do have to be factored in though. We're not seeing much recognition of that in the media. Snowflakes think the economy just happens somehow and will carry on doing so.

Then there's the argument that if dramatic control measures are put in place to control the spread, you're just postponing the evil hour. The virus comes roaring back later among the non-immune population. And the draconian measures we've seen in China aren't physically possible in the West in any case.

I'd hate to be the mathematician attempting to steer the best course through that lot.

I'm seeing a lot of criticism of Trump for not doing better. Over here the same - suggestions that the UK Prime Minister doesn't care, or even that he wishes to see some sort of cull. Complete rubbish, but many choose to believe it. No recognition that this is a difficult one and maybe impossible to get dead right.

And in both countries there's no sense of all sides pulling together - as with everything else, many in your country and many in mine are only looking for ammunition with which to pursue the usual violently partisan politics.

We may expect a fair few deaths and some serious economic damage. When we've got through that it'll maybe be time to look at the ridiculously long and complex supply lines we at present all accept as normal. And maybe to look at one or two other things. But I don't expect there'll be a lot of common sense around then either.

I liked your President's announcement. Good blend of realism and morale building. He, or his scriptwriters, doesn't matter here, do seem to be aware of those other difficult factors.

Eric Newhill

Walrus,
If people are going to insist on going crazy over a flu in America, then they will self isolate and take other self-directed measures. No need to weld them into their homes (yes I saw a video of the Chinese doing that).

BTW, IMO, the test is showing a lot of false positives that are other forms of coronavirus.

Deap

Too many people saw the Matt Damon movie "Contagion" and think life is imitating life right now - Corona flu has become the Great Zombie Apocalyspe that uber-Leftist Matt Damon in the movie warned us about.

Same thing happened after too many people thought One Flew Over the CooKoo's Nest was a documentary, a few decades ago - led to closing down all the mental hospitals in the US and exploded the crazy street people population.

No one can undo the ACLU-inspired legislation passed after that movie came out ,that makes it now virtually impossible to take clearly impaired people of the streets in California.

All because of life imitating art in a leftist agenda movie. Dump all these cases in Hollywood, where they belong.

Fred

Lawrence Kart,

In 1981 the US population was 230 million, now it's 330 million and 32 million Americans didn't die from aids. On a brighter note thanks to recent California legislation one does not even have to tell your sex partners you have it.

Fred

English,

As walrus pointed out we are not a police state. This virus though has given America's enemies, and Donald Trump's in particular, a unique opportunity to take advantage by engaging in world class IO operations and legislatively try to do what the democrats are doing in Virginia. When this blows over, which it will, Trump needs to turn a blowtorch on all of these people. He should start by putting a foot up Barry's rump and get some indictments going for"Russia, Russia, Russia.

Jack
Dr. Fauci tells House Oversight that the U.S. health system isn't set up to allow anyone who wants a test to get one: "The idea of anybody getting it, easily, the way people in other countries are doing it, we're not set up for that. Do I think we should be? Yes, but we're not."
Terence Gore

Japan - 1,337 cases, 23 deaths

Hong Kong - 126 cases, 3 deaths

Germany - 2,078 cases, 3 deaths

South Korea - 7,869 cases, 66 deaths

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/countries-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-200125070959786.html

Italy- 12,462 cases, 1,016 deaths


https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/heres-why-the-coronavirus-death-rate-is-so-high-in-italy/

Terence Gore

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/12/South-Korea-experts-recommend-anti-HIV-anti-malaria-drugs-for-COVID-19/6961584012321/

"South Korean experts are also recommending the use of hydroxychloroquine in combination with the anti-HIV medication. HCQ is sold under the brand name Plaquenil, among others, and is used for the prevention and treatment of malaria."

https://pj.jiho.jp/article/241682

"A patient with the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 saw symptoms improve after being treated with Sanofi’s immune modulator Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine sulfate), according to the latest report posted on the website of the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases."

My wife has lupus and is immune suppressed. She has been admitted to the hospital for several pneumonias in the past. She is on Plaquenil, so I found this somewhat encouraging.


JJackson

Re HIV
While it obeys all the laws of epidemics that also apply to COVID there are very important difference. The transmission method and generation time being key. It is a lot easier to control who you have sex with, or if you share needles, than whose breath you inhale or what you touch. The generation cycle for COVID is less than a week for HIV years. That time gives ample opportunity to contact trace and has allowed for the development of drugs that work and make the disease treatable. For COVID we have a current crude CAR (clinical attack rate) of 135k/7.8B which is 0.00% to two decimal place the CAR for seasonal flu is about 20% and in pandemic years this is 30-50% due to no existing immunity in the population. Epidemiologist who tend to be conservative in their estimates expect a CFR in the 30 to 50% range. In other words if we do not contain it the epidemic is in its infancy and every town and city should expect to have its Wuhan experience. Until serological testing is complete (and we do not even have any preliminary data yet) we will not know either how many sub-clinical cases there are or if post infection immunity is acquired or how long it might last. The major problem, that is not getting much attention, is if we do not stamp it out now it may just become another human endemic disease (like flu and HIV) which is permanently circulating in the population. It would be nice if the annual CDC butcher's bill did not read flu 35k deaths, COVID 350k deaths.

Eric what do you base your opinion that the test are picking up other CoVs? The probes in any of the PCR tests are picked specifically to not pick up MERS or SARS which are betaCoVs the only other human CoVs are not are far removed genetically and definitely not going to give a false positive.

Eric Newhill

JJackson,
Can you explain to me (sincerely asked) how, for example, S. Korea was able to have ubiquitous tests for this specific virus not only developed, but also distributed within a month or two (at the most) from the first cases being reported in China?

The SoKos are either super scientists and industrialists in a super organized society, or there is some degree of BS associated with the tests. Being a skeptic (in the scientific sense), I have to assume BS is the right answer. However, if you can explain it to me in a way I can understand, I will change my mind. Please include the genetic science aspect in your explanation. Thanks!

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