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19 March 2020


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Two TA Corporals dead. Not what they expected from their 'friends'.


The Turks and the Russians have convergent interests in the long term, the Turks and the jihadists do not. Prolonging the Syrian civil war makes Bibi happy, but it doesn't help Erdogan in any way. The sooner the Syrian civil war ends the sooner all those Syrian refugees in Turkey can return home. Russia will sell Erdogan S-400 complexes - but the US will only sell Patriot batteries when they feel like it, and won't sell F-35s unless Turkey promises to be a compliant vassal ... which doesn't fit with how the Turks view themselves.

Erdogan has every reason to have a covert alliance with Russia. An overt alliance would just invite (more) sanctions.

The Twisted Genius


Erdogan has withdrawn his Army from Sarmin, between Idlib and Saraqib, and Binnish, between Idlib and Taftanaz, after the ambush. No word yet o whether the Turks are still in the airbase south of Taftanaz. Perhaps they're consolidating just like we are in Iraq. We can only hope they are truly pulling up stakes.


Any loss of Turkish military personnel in Syria is grist for the growing opposition to the Syria intervention, adding to the increasing "Erdo fatigue." Having ethnically cleansed traditionally Kurdish territory along the border, the rationale for playing footsies with Syria jihadis is harder to sell, especially given Turkey's increasing economic woes.

Should Turkey abandon these jihadis now, there will be nowhere for them to go except for Turkey and they will be even less welcome than the refugees. They have NO Europe option. If he does leave them to their fate, Erdo will face the wrath from two distinct corners, the ultra-nationalists who warned that Turkey could easily lose Hatay. For the various strains of Turkish Islamism, it will be seen as a betrayal by a supposedly pious ruler.


re Any loss of Turkish military personnel in Syria is grist for the growing opposition to the Syria intervention, adding to the increasing "Erdo fatigue."

As far as I go my fatigue with Erdo didn't start with his Syria adventure.

The absurd hysteria over the so called coup and protests, Erdo friends accusing the Lufthansa being part of that plot, his mass arrests and mass firing, his agressive behaviour against Greece, the still greekish rest of Syria, his blackmailing of the EU and Greece with refugee floods, arresting Gülenists on the overwhelming evidence that they own a dollar bill or keeping a writer arrested for one and a half year until the prosecutor eventually send him and his attorney an ill written and absurd accusation (of which he was acquitted only to be rearrested a day later) ... etc pp ... do it already for me.

Turkish troops are in Syria very much 'uninvited', that means they are an agreessive invasion force, Kurds or Schmurds - and Erdo is accusing Russia and Syria of daring to shoot back, and demands NATO support in his neo-osmanian or simply egomaniac adventures.


correction to "the still greekish rest of Syria":

I meant "the still greekish rest of Cyprus"

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