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30 March 2020

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Vegetius

As Mark Blyth said

"The Hamptons is not a defensible position. People will come for you."


Patrick Armstrong

I'd sure like to know more about this:

"But about 100 million masks in the stockpile were deployed in 2009 in the fight against the H1N1 flu pandemic, and the government never bothered to replace them. This month, Alex Azar, secretary of health and human services, testified that there are only about 40 million masks in the stockpile — around 1 percent of the projected national need."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-face-mask.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&fbclid=IwAR2zFKXzjz5UcDpPK496mmX0rEWqNWJhBZwd0Q8BgrjrC6FKISPWJRf8FPU

And it's not just the USA. All Western countries seem to have inadequate stockpiles. Any suggestions why? Too much time spent being "diverse" and getting gender-neutral toilets?

confusedponderer

I have some friendly fools marching in at the moment, of course stricly stricly hygienic and contact avoiding:

My dear sister was buing fresh locally roasted good coffee today and was so friendly to buy a pack for me also.

Now, since she is a teacher she is also sentenced to home office though she is spared to be regularly visited by a hysterical horde of pupils at home. She has as a result also some time for really practical things beyond preparing teaching - she is en passant making herself face masks.

Apparently she has a little over poduction. I will get my fine java coffee but she has insisted that I would only get the coffee with a face mask. In a way that's kind, but I most certainly won't wear that mask while drinking that coffee.

turcopolier

walrus

The company commander is held responsible in the US Army for both property entered on the unit property book and consumables. COs often trade things like plywood, paint, housekeeping supplies that are consumables. OTOH unit property for which he/she is personally financially responsible on the property book is normally not traded because the CO will have to account for it in a change of command and either pay for it after depreciation is applied in a "report of survey" made by battalion or simply get blown away in an effectiveness report. This includes food in a unit where there is a field ration mess that feeds the troops with rations issued by a "ration break down point" at the installation level. This issues food with which to cook by the daily Army master menu world wide. Rations issued must balance rations consumed by headcount certified by the unit's mess OFFICER, not the mess sergeant. I once gave the mess sergeant of a mess that I had recently taken over the choice of paying for 1200 rations that he was short by headcount or facing court-martial for theft. He paid and then retired. In combat all that goes out the window and everything is basically considered expended when issued to troops in combat. There are exceptions; trucks in a motor pool for example. In VN a warrant officer motor officer there "sold" the unit's trucks to a VN company and then departed for CONUS to retire. This cleverness fell apart when the new "owners" showed up to take possession. He was recalled to active duty and returned under guard for trial. With regard to the troop messes, officers, warrant officers and sergeants not living in barracks can eat in these meals after signing a cash collection sheet and paying what is really a very reasonable charge. Their dependents get the same deal. I learned to love army food as a kid.

JJackson

pl
I remember vast quantities of US packaged food stuffs in the Marche Noir in Saigon, also great tools. We used to buy things like whole boned out turkeys and steaks. At what point were these likely to have been diverted from their route to the troops?

turcopolier

jjackson

Diverted from the troops or out the backdoor of the US Army Commissary store in Saigon (only for civilian employees of the government), from things like the larders of USAID employees and the USAID hotel kitchen. Should I continue?

Deap

The heavy US regulatory state (aka the deep state) with its own self-protective agenda has prevented quick action which is slowly getting broken down under this President.

Case in point, CDC (FDA?) prevented and then limited the re-use of masks because they had not officially approved a particularly mass sterilization process. Trump helped push past those restrictions, while other limited restrictions left over from prior administrations are revealed every day.

Some are valid and intended to protect; others are just plain regulatory dross built up over time and fundamentally meaningless except to officious paper pushers who avoid making any decisions that puts their own government employment at risk.

Lots of things are getting 'stress tested" right now -it will be one of the bright sides of this very curious election year "flu" mess.

There is (1) the actual corona virus which is showing itself not be be exeptionally deadly, deadly but not exceptionally so; (2)there is the intentional media semantic hyperbole about the corona virus; (3) there are various government reactions to corona; and (4) finally there is a very fertile public willingness to accept corona is Zombie Apocalypse.

The only wrinkle is the unwillingness of the Zombie Apocalypse believers to wash their hands, stop sticking their fingers into their noses, mouths and eyes, and to cover their own coughs and senses.

All of that would make them personally responsible for both the spread and protection of this disease. It would require them giving up blame and partisan martyrdom. That is our real sickness - blame and self-imposed martyrdom - I can see how this sickness developed in the US, but it does surprise me it is now also well established globally.

turcopolier

Deap

Most people are sheep driven by BS. This is universal.

different clue

A question for those with experience to answer . . .

Given the clearly severe penalties involved for getting caught stealing or diverting food or other things from their proper military supply and consumption and accounting-for channels, why would people take the risks to do it?

Could it really only be for personal free stuff or free pleasure?
Or did it also involve seeking the "thrill of getting away with it" or relief from boredom and tension?

different clue

Deap,

Here is a schematic "cutaway" view picture of someone getting a swab test taken for COVID or not. Here is a link to the picture.

https://twitter.com/DrPeckPNP/status/1244062665535864832/photo/1

Dr. Peck put it on her twitter thinking maybe it would look uncomfortable enough to the viewers that it would encourage them to
wash their hands. And No Touch Facee.

JJackson

Deap re.
"(1) the actual corona virus which is showing itself not be be exeptionally deadly, deadly but not exceptionally so"
Where would you rate it?
I am having difficulty of thinking of any other human pathogen which is as deadly? In history yes but we have eradicated or controlled all of these. There are much higher case fatality rates in pathogens like Ebola but their transmission method is not as efficient so they do not kill the same numbers.
The bigger problem is the time over which they do their killing. Their nearest rival, in terms of their ability to strain the health system, is seasonal flu. This is what the health system is set up to deal with, a winter flu serge. The US deaths for this flu season have already been surpassed by COVID deaths and most of these came from either Washington state or the areas around NY & LA. No State has this under control and the deaths today were from patients who became symptomatic two weeks ago, when the US was reporting under 2,000 new cases/day now it is 22,500 and all of these have to work through the system. Assuming they get the same level of care that is about 5000 deaths/day, if the level of care drops the numbers go up. The CDC data for flu deaths over the last 10 years varied between 12 and 61 thousand. So two weeks at those levels would be past the worst flu year in a decade.

Eric Newhill

JJackson,
How do you know the case fatality rate? The denominator (the number of cases) is unknown at this time. Only very sick people in the US have been tested.

My data says the flu has killed many more than COVID-19 this season. COVID has claimed 4K lives since Jan 19, when it was first identified in the US. So < 2K/month. The Flu has been killing an avg of approx. 4.5K a month this season. Even the CDC shows similar figures.

j. casey

Medical "experts" who would rather see people die than have their precious "protocols" ignored.

Also, HC and AZ both generic. No money to be made there for Big Pharma, thus the effort to sideline it. The big money will be in whatever vaccine is rolled out. Cheap and effective treatment that undermines vaccine price.

BTW, Li'l Greta on her Rothschild yacht called for a ban on international jet travel. Funny, here it is.

JJackson

Eric
I posted a link to my post on epidemiology and testing which you said you read. I am unclear where your question about the CFR came from as it played no part in the calculations I made. I did say that the CFR is lower than Ebola which I do not think anybody doubts. CFR is calculated as the number of patients who die from a disease divided by the number who develop a disease, it does not include asymptomatic cases. In the US we do not have a handle on the denominator at present due to not having the ability to test all suspect cases but we did at the outset and other countries like China, Singapore and S Korea can. This gives us a fairly clear picture which is roughly 80% self limiting, 20% requiring hospitalisation and oxygen support of whom a quarter go on to need invasive mechanical ventilation. My calculations are all based on CDC data either from their flu web site, in the MMWRs (Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Reports) or as provided by the CDC to WHO and published in their daily Sit-Reps. Your calculation of monthly deaths from flu make sense as they are based on a predictable and fairly steady influx of patients but 2k a month for COVID based on the beginning of an outbreak with exponential growth is meaningless. Take a look at this graph which plots MMWR death curves for influenza week by week going back years and the COVID deaths by week since the start of the outbreak. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/842586-comparing-flu-and-covid-19-deaths
All the US data is suspect at present not only are we not getting a full picture of the new mild cases, your denominator, but also the numerator as not all deaths due to COVID are being listed as such as not all of these have been tested and returned as positive at the time of death. To get a better handle on these numbers we will have to wait for the cause of death listed on death certificates which have a longer time lag. The UK is just beginning to add in the first batch of these which are deaths outside of NHS hospitals principally from nursing homes which are run privately or by local authorities.

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