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01 March 2020

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John Merryman

Add to that the corona virus, the imploding market bubble, Turkey's desire to draw Nato into a Mid-East war.... And it's only March 1!
The only prediction I'd make for this year, is that it will be "interesting."

Serge

My father, a Democrat, voted for Trump in the 2016 NH primary with the intention of sowing some chaos.

Deap

If Bernie is not really a Democrat (flag of convenience only), how many of his rabid supporters are even registered to vote in any party?. Not something anarchists typically do.

Jim Henely

Sanders' constituency is disproportionately 45 and under, many of whom voted in the 2016 primary. The memory of the last primary theft by the DNC, added onto another convention coup will have transformative consequences for the party.

Will the party insiders allow a Sander's nomination, or will they follow the instructions of the deep-pocketed financial backers who view Sandes as a threat to their incomes. Nancy Pelosi recently remarked that she would be okay with a Sander's nomination. Was she expressing a party platform, or was that the wine talking? If Sanders shows up at the convention as the leading delegate winner, but is denied the nomination, does that spawn a third party?

We are, indeed, living in very interesting times.

Deap

LA Times Sunday this morning has a big ad splashed across half a page - "A Conversation with Michelle Obama" in an LA Convention Center.

What a coincidence in timing. Right before Super Tuesday. People will pay money to listen to her? Or will Bloomberg buy up all the seats for the sheer value of sassy photo ops.

When will Mrs. Obama-Soetoro officially become the dark horse at the upcoming brokered DNC convention?

Who is staying in the race right now to be her unofficial stalking horse. Nobly rising to the moment during the brokered convention to release his/her delegates in favor of former FLOTUS Michelle Obama. My money is on Buttigeig.

Deap

PS: Now why would Obama's former body man Reggie Love come out for Pete Buttgieg - is he Michelle Obama's DNC stalking horse? https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/01/obamas-body-man-reggie-love-rallies-pete-buttigieg-supporters-after-losing-south-carolina/

different clue

@Serge,

So your father voted for Trump in the 2016 NH primary to sow some chaos? " How is that working out for him" . . . as Doctor Phil might say?

ambrit

All;
I have been flying a fabulous CT over on another site concerning Hillary Clinton as the eventual "Unity Candidate." Add in Michelle Obama and we have not one, but two ex first ladies on the ticket!
"America Needs Two Mommies!" "Hillary/Michelle 2020!"
(I cannot ever see Hillary Clinton taking second place to anyone. Her ambition rivals that of Lady MacBeth; with similar outcomes, to boot. If I were a candidate who offers Hillary the Veep slot, I would certainly avoid going up in small aircraft.)
Agreed that this is the beginning of the end for the legacy Democrat Party. A reading of the history of the American Whig Party will be instructive.

Deap

Michelle Obama hates Hillary Clinton. They will not be able to pull this ticket off. More like a Michelle and Preachy Pete ticket. Demorcrats are convinced only Michelle "can bring us together".

Timothy Hagios

I see the DNC selecting a Biden/Warren ticket. Biden brings in the old guard and Warren checks the diversity box without carrying Clinton's baggage.

IMO this is the worst possible ticket, since both strike me as people with serious mental disorders who would happily get us stuck in another war just for the fun of it.

Upstate NY'er

D:
What's a bigger loser?
An anti-American Marxist or a ticket of a (polarizing) black female and a gay midget?
Or how about a short, divorced, Jewish billionaire from NYC, with the personality of an undertaker, who promises to take away your guns and your soda drink?

Jack

Larry,

IMO, Super Tuesday is a big deal with 40% of the population voting. It seems under the banner of the “moderates” the party establishment (Clinton-Obama faction) and the Wall St neocon faction are now coalescing around Biden and possibly Bloomberg. Pete has dropped out. Likely Amy and Warren will drop out too after this coming week.

Can a dementia laden Biden revive his candidacy with a Harris or Abrams VP pick? Can Mike remain competitive with his billions on tap to spend?

How will Democrat primary voters align as the field narrows? Super Tuesday should be instructive.

Peter VE

Regardless of how we get there, on Sunday November 8th, I expect to collect on my bet that Trump will be re-elected. I doubled down the day the House impeached him.

Jane

It's about the numbers and superdelegates. The "reforms" in the DNC system following 2016 include a new rule that superdelegates, all 93 of them, cannot take part in the first round of voting. If there is no outright plurality, these 93 delegates, all of whom have stated no intention to give their votes to Bernie, will rule the day. The only candidate that might help Bernie is Warren if/if the math shows that whatever number of delegates she gets would give Bernie his plurality in the first round. Those superdelegates tell us a lot about our two-party system. At least one wealthy delegate is a major donor to Republican candidates. They largely represent the same corporate interests that ensure that neither party does anything dramatic to harm Wall Street or big industries. A look at the actual voting records of Democratic senators and house members reveals a lot that public posturing does not.

Democratic leaders have said that they would rather lose the election to Trump than to have the party taken over by progressives. The mainstream corporate Democrats may well get their way, but what happens to the party afterwards is the question.

J

Buttigieg dropped out this evening.

Deap

Watch what Buttigeig now does with his earned delegates?

1. Releases them to follow their own conscience.
2. Recommend they now support candidate XYZ
3. Hordes them until the DNC and uses them as bargaining chips

4. Coalesces them with other also-rans into a draft Michelle Obama movement - she will bring us together.

Was it just me but did Buttigieg sound refreshing at first, but very quickly became totally annoying. His imperious sneer now haunts this campaign experience.

Am Expat in Mindanao

@ Jane

If I may, Wikipedia puts the number of Superdelegates 775, not 93.

Just saying.

Terence Gore

Who the blank drops out while in 3rd 2 days before Super Tuesday?
Any self interested politician would at least let the vote happen and negotiate something out of it

Keith Harbaugh

sundance offers a forecast for future developments from the Democratic establishment and the media
that is entirely consistent with Larry's:
"Biden -vs- Bernie, The Race Begins…", 2020-02-29
Note it was written on Saturday, before Buttigeig called it quits.

Jack

Terence,

Pete reportedly had call with Obama and Biden and deal was struck. Watch him endorse Biden soon.

The Beaver

So Pete and Klobuchar are out. The elites are manning that chess board.

Jack

Amy now endorsing Biden. Pete will follow. Obama begins these moves to back Biden. What will Mini Mike do after tomorrow?

The Obama-Clinton faction moving to upend Bernie. Watch North Carolina tomorrow. And of course the actual delegate count from California and Texas.

Fred

Jack,

If the democrats were serious about the national popular vote bs they would have a national primary rather that one in every state. As to VP's I'm looking forward to Biden-Hilary.

blue peacock

Fred,

My bet would be on Biden/Harris. Biden for the black votes and Harris for the white votes :-) They're the perfect Obama choice setting the stage for Michelle 2024.

What would be the price for Bernie to back this ticket after he gets shafted at the convention?

Deap

Public pension funds were taking a huge hit since they are heavily invested in "corporate America. No, the stock market drop was not because of the corona virus. It was the growing threat of the Sander's socialism virus.

CalPERS - the largest public pension fund in the world lost $15 billion dollars and they were already badly underfunded. Time for the Democrat party to close ranks, because public employee unions are their life blood and they don't take kindly to these levels of their own pension fund losses.

Hence the squeeze on the also-rans to drop out, and coalesce behind Biden. They had no other choice after South Carolina.

How Warren intends to play out her final card remains to be seen. Assuming she wants to pick up a few more Super Tuesday delegates and act as a last minute power broker if she gets enough votes to make a difference.

Democrats now are obviously desperate to get within striking distance in case there is a SuperTuesday Bernie surge. Tomorrow will be very, very interesting to see how it lays and how it plays.

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