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24 March 2020

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Keith Harbaugh

CNBC has published a nice, easy to understand, comparison of various pandemics in history:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

Deap

March 26 - the day a few notables are walking back their Zombie Apocalypse pronouncements - UK Imperial College and Stanford - ooops, looks like math turned out to be as hard for them as it was for the twits who claimed Bloomberg spent $1 million dollars per voter.

First error was relying on data from China, second was calling those dying with three underlying co-morbidities "corona virus deaths. Then falling in love with being in the spotlight and finally being 100% wooden headed about downstream consequences of not getting these projections 100% right - even in times of uncertainty.

Saving grace is to remember France always shuts down their whole country for the month of August -so we too shall survive our Miserable March. But only if we finally reject MSM and its rabid hounds from hell.

Fred

BillWade,

There are plenty of other businesses in SW Florida that don't rely on retirees, tourists or out of state snowbirds.The Corportate HQ for Hertz is Estero, just North of Naples as well as US Sugar. There'splenty of other agriculture including the very powerful A Duda & Sons (or whatever they are callled now). And of course don't for get real estate, lawyers and financial firms. The hourly staff in the restraunt business certainly need help, but I can't think of any doctors, lawyers or financial advisors that can't go a month without a paycheck. BTW let me know when AOC and the Squad get the Trump Bux out there 'cause what I saw in their bill was the same crap they put in the GND.

Robert Miles

Instead of fretting about the number of ventilators, maybe Cuomo should focus first on getting gowns for his hospital workers, so they won't be forced to wear trash bags:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-nurses-wear-trash-bags-as-protection-dies-from-coronavirus/

BillWade

Yep Fred, it did slip my mind, plenty of big ag going on in DeSoto county right next to me, although it's a 40 minute drive I enjoy going to Arcadia (you almost feel like you're in south Texas as you approach the town). You can get lots of fresh food there, meats as well for a good price.

Our restaurant folks in Charlotte county are hurting. Many restaurants are doing takeout but a few drop off everyday. The remaining ones should do well,though I suspect owners are just trying to get rid of inventory and won't re-order till this is over. Friend of mine works for a large food distributor and she relates that orders are way down.

Rumors are leaking out about growing riots in Wuhan, a dispute with a neighboring town and dissatisfaction with their govt's response to the virus. Police on the side of the rioters.

BillWade

For anyone in the USA feeling antsy:

www.CovidMedicalTest.com

I think it's legit,hope so.

Fred

Bill,

I'm sure orders for fresh perishables are way down, the rest probably just pushed back. There have been some restaurants putting together 'crisis kits' as a way to get multiple days of food for a family in one 'to go' order. Incuding - the TP or napkins. They get those by the pallet full so I'm sure they probably have some on hand. It won't replace table service but it does help both parties out.

optimax

PepeEscobar writing about hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in France, its efficacy and its strange disappearance from Frances' pharma. Doctors in the US to Trump instead of Fauci about using it earl and often. We can't wait for FDA approaval.

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/why-france-is-hiding-a-cheap-and-tested-virus-cure/

English Outsider


Eric - it's a bigger deal than is being made out, and that irrespective of what governments do.

Full testing and tracing and isolation Wuhan style, or more or less let it rip, which was the earlier approach of the European governments - that's under government control to an extent.

What isn't under government control is consumer reaction. With this virus going around a great number of those who could be killed by it aren't buying a whole lot of stuff they usually do - they're more interested in keeping out of the way of infection, whatever governments say.

That's a lot of the economy put on hold and it's entirely outside government control. That spoils business for those who aren't that vulnerable, so they order less stock or in some cases close down for the duration.

The shock this is going to give the economy is great - and there's not a lot Trump or Merkel or Johnson etc can do about it. Except pump money around and hope that doesn't finally put paid to our shaky financial system.

So we're in for trouble. You're seeing it from the point of view of the health professional and going by the stats. From that point of view it seems ridiculous that a disease that mainly kills the economically inactive and leaves the bulk of the workers unharmed should cause such economic damage.

But look at it from the point of view of the private businessman. If I were still running my small business I wouldn't be sending men out to site. Many customers are elderly and wouldn't want them around. Few small businesses can pay men who aren't working so some would have to be laid off. I'd be purchasing less.

All this would happen - and is happening with a great number of businesses in the UK - whatever HMG does. Is it not so in the States?

On the health side we're also on a loser whatever the governments do. Go for suppression Taiwan style and 1, it'll not be 100% and 2, the bulk of the population won't be immune so they'll be fighting new outbreaks until a vaccine or other treatment comes along.

Let it rip and isolate the vulnerable - 1, isolation is imperfect especially in the inner cities and 2, that has to be kept up for longer than just a few weeks.

There's also the effect on morale if a government isn't seen to be doing all it can. Not as if most of us are that fond of whatever government we're landed with anyway.

There is therefore no way of avoiding the disruption this virus will cause and that disruption will be severe.

Terence Gore

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30633-4/fulltext

"However, it is important to bear in mind that the current best estimate is that about 81% of people with COVID-19 have mild disease1 and never require hospitalisation."

"Their cohort had many characteristics in common with other reports3, 4, 5—a median age of 56·0 years (IQR 46·0–67·0), a high percentage (62%) of men, and nearly half (48%) of patients with comorbidities. In-hospital death was associated with, on admission, older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17; p=0·0043), a higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p<0·0001), and blood d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL (18·42, 2·64–128·55; p=0·0033), findings known to be associated with severe pneumonia.6, 7 The study also presents early data on changes in clinical and laboratory findings over time, which could help clinicians to identify patients who progress to more severe disease. In-hospital mortality was high (28%), much higher than in other reports that had incomplete follow-up data,3, 5, 8 and was very high among the 32 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, of whom 31 (97%) died. This might reflect a higher proportion of patients admitted with severe disease in the early stages of the outbreak. In another report from Wuhan, mortality was 62% among critically ill patients with COVID-19 and 81% among those requiring mechanical ventilation."

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