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27 March 2020

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walrus

There is an assumption underlying this comprehensive post that because Covid-19 is not "high consequence" then we are not facing a worldwide health emergency. I do not believe this is correct.

The HCID classification relates among other things to the lethality of the disease. Covid-19 is not lethal enough to be labelled as high consequence. Fair enough, but the danger from Covid-19 is not primarily caused by lethality but by timing.

Simply put, the forthcoming surge in Covid-19 patients will overwhelm all our health systems that is the source of its lethality. An overwhelmed healthcare system wont be able to treat any serious cases of Covid-19 or any other lethal conditions. According to epidemiologists, I'm told this is a matter of simple mathematics.

Then there is, as Col. Lang has reminded us, the added problem of consequential deaths if hysteria causes a breakdown in the delicate, fragile, supply chains that keep us fed, watered and warm caused by public disorder.

As for Britain, i have no faith in the British establishment whatsoever to do anything other than look after their own interests at the expense of everyone else.

In that respect the British upper class are not alone, the Greens, the millenials and various economists and similar have already made it quite plain that they see the accelerated demise of older people as a great benefit to themselves.

Mark Arnest

Between January 31, when the first COVID-19 case was diagnoseed in the UK, and March 19, when COVID-19 was "no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease" in the UK, there were 144 deaths due to the disease. Between March 19 and March 27, there were 875 deaths due to the disease. The highest number of deaths, so far, was March 27. You may decide for yourselves whether this declaration was actually "good news."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

Jack

Eric

Since we’ve not tested many it seems the only two metrics are number of deaths and number in ICUs. It would be interesting to see Wuhan virus compared to other flus. I have read flus kill over 20,000. So far the Wuhan virus has not killed many here in the US or anywhere else except Italy and China. Are there other extenuating circumstances there?

Whatever it may be we’ve shutdown large parts of the global economy. The real repercussions will only be felt in the second half of this year.

It reminds me of 9/11. Three thousand dead, American icons felled in our nation’s financial capital by a bunch of ragtag Saudis. Our collective ego bruised. The fear the elites and ambulance chasing media exploited. Consider the trillions that it caused us to spend, borrowed from future generations. Consider who generated wealth stateside notwithstanding the grifters in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. It turns out rather than focus on hurting Islamic jihadists we invaded and destroyed the social fabrics of a few unrelated countries. We even wound up backing these jihadists in Syria to overthrow a secular regime.

Will we look back at this in a few years and contemplate dispassionately who benefited or will our analysis remain muddled by our partisan lenses? As in 2008 the early signs are that the same financial, corporate and political elites are using this as an opportunity to continue to fleece not only the majority of the current generations but also future generations.

optimax

Fred

Guess I forgot to link to the Unz article. The small study in France of hydroxychloroquine and arithromycine show a complete cure of c-19 virus in all patients that took the drugs together. Here's the money-shot from the study.

"When comparing the effect of hydroxychloroquine treatment as a single drug and the effect of hydroxychloroquine and azithromyc in combination, the proportion of patients that had negative PCR results in nasopharyngeal samples was significantly different between the two groups at days 3-4-5 and 6 post-inclusion (Table 3). At day6 post-inclusion, 100% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin combination were virologicaly cured comparing with 57.1% in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine only, and 12.5% in the control group (p<0.001). These results are summarized in Figure 1, Figure 2. Drug effect was significantly higher in patients with symptoms of URTI and LRTI, as compared to asymptomatic patients with p<0.05 (data not show)."

Here's the study:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

While the press downplays the study and implies Trump is a buffoon for mentioning it as a possiblity, doctors and dentists have been been hoarding so much of the drugs that pharmacists are running short. Doctors and dentists aren't waiting for the CDC and FDA to give their approval to use the cocktail, even off-label and they know more about medicine and what's worth trying and what's not than journalists. The power to control o
the nation's healthcare in one or two centralized beuacracies kills people.

Walrus is right. Despite some thinking culling the herd to be socially desireable, we need to try and stop the number of infected from overwhelming the healthcare system. Doctors and nurses are dropping like old drunks off of bar stools. Even if they recover, the will be out for, what, 2,3 weeks a month or more.

Heard on the radio a study that claimed only 17% of men wash their hands after going to the bathroom. Hope that includes all restaurant workers.

Serge

Not so much the mortality rate of SARS 2 that worries me but rather the unknowns as regards potential permanent health effects, even in those suffering mild symptoms. For example this study that found that sufferers with mild symptoms have half the normal level of testosterone:

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection upon male gonadal function: A single centerbased study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.21.20037267v1.full.

>Theoretically, any cells expressing ACE2 may be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. According to the online database The Human
Protein Atlas portal, testes shows the highest expression level of ACE2 protein and mRNA in the body

Pundita

From Sputnik's Live Updates on the pandemic:

"UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will warn Brits in a letter in the coming week that the situation in the country will only get worse after the number of those who've perished from the coronavirus in the country spiked to over 1,000 in recent days.

He will urge 30 million households "to stay at home and save lives", and will say that further restrictions could be implemented if necessary."

https://sptnkne.ws/BQZy

The British government, as with every other, has been trying to analyze fairy-tale statistics about the virus.

See this report, "Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Is an ‘Almost Meaningless’ Metric" for some detail on how hard it's been to capture accurate statistics.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-almost-meaningless-123550415.html

In a perfect world, maybe in 2-3 weeks we'll start getting a reasonably accurate picture.

As to hysteria about the virus -- so is that the new term for people being completely unprepared to deal with a threat they knew very well was on the way?

Pardon my bitterness but governments, media, and the citizenry have had ten years -- since the Swine Flu pandemic -- to deal with the fact that a highly infectious lethal virus can now go from the outbreak stage to the pandemic stage within a week -- even hours, depending on the time of year; e.g, Spring Break. That's because of:
> the huge number of international airports built all over the world since the 1990s;
> dirt-cheap local and international airfares;
> virtually unrestricted jet airline travel to most parts of the world.
> the globalization of work and college attendance and mass tourism due to the above factors.

In short, the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic taught that the modern era of international jet travel imposes great responsibilities on travelers and governments and severe penalties on the human race if the responsibilities are ignored.

Nobody wanted to take the lesson. File under Human Nature.

Eric Newhill

Jack,
"Since we’ve not tested many it seems the only two metrics are number of deaths and number in ICUs. It would be interesting to see Wuhan virus compared to other flus. I have read flus kill over 20,000. So far the Wuhan virus has not killed many here in the US or anywhere else except Italy and China."

Right. That's one of my points. You can look at adjusted mortality rates and ICU rates. That's it.; unless massive *random* sample of the population is tested for the virus.

Another of my points is that just because you tested positive and are dead - or even in the ICU - doesn't mean the virus is what got you there. How many of those unfortunates would have ended up in that condition due to other conditions that they have? Anecdotally, a lot of them. Certainly the statistics from Italy suggest the majority.

walrus

Australian Government just announced maximum meeting size is two people. As a 70 year old I’m now quarantined for 6 months as well.

Jack

“The grave mistake of shutting down entire countries instead of testing and providing equipment, protocols, and tools for businesses to manage the crisis.”

https://twitter.com/dlacalle_ia/status/1244248762781970436?s=21

I agree with Daniel Lacalle that not aggressively testing and isolating allowed the media and the various “pundits” to fan the flames of catastrophe. Here in the US we should have quickly enabled our vast molecular biology industry and the medical diagnostic infrastructure to manage the scale of testing required. Testing at mass scale paid by the federal government would have been less expensive to taxpayers than the current Wall St bailout. And more importantly would have provided a counter to the understandable public fears and the momentum to shut everything down.

Keith Harbaugh

So why has the media so relentlessly and luridly flogged the threat from COVID?
I don't have the slightest doubt that the following article gives the largest part of the answer:
https://vdare.com/articles/jews-fear-they-re-prone-to-coronavirus-but-race-denying-ruling-class-suppresses-the-facts
Note that it uses articles from several rxplicitly Jewish news sources as documentation.

Fred

Optimax,

Thanks for the link. "we need to try and stop the number of infected from overwhelming the healthcare system" I agree, but we don't need to destroy the Republic and what's left of our economy while we do that. The 'we've always done it that way' attitude, much on display in our bureaucracies, is counter productive. For examples 'masks'. Aparently these are magical devices that work for doctors and nurses but if you wear one, well, it's not going to help.

"Doctors and nurses are dropping like old drunks off of bar stools. "
Where? None of my contacts working in hospitals in Michigan report that. I've seen the videos on Facebook but the one I looked into, which a nurse friend of my put on her FB page, was unsubstantiated and only available on a community page whose originator is a personal injury attorney in Dearborn. The hospital referenced has zero information about said report nor was there anything in the local press about it.

different clue

@artemisia,

If the corona pandemic fails to end in a few days, now that " the heist is a fait accompli" and " the distraction is no longer needed"; how will your theory explain the failure of the pandemic to end in a few days, and the failure of your theory to enable a correct prediction in that regard?

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