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18 March 2020

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Deap

Why italy? Prestogiacomo makes some very good point - 5 things you should know about Italy.

Most curiously, the only EU country to get on board with OBOR -One Belt One Road - with China getting access to Italian ports once they move goods out of Western China via Pakistan and the KKH to the port of Karachi - actually a new port constructed near Karachi for the OBOR. Chinese wanted to spare no expense to make the KKH linking their countries an all weather highway.
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Mestre, Trieste, and Genoa major Italian commercial ports in Northern Italy. Naples and Bari-Brindisi in Southern Italy not so much. Thus enters Greta Thunberg's corona virus with a vengeance to Italy? Plus their high illegal immigration impacts coming in bu boat from the Mediterranean.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/03/18/southern-california-cities-sound-alarm-over-coming-financial-hit-from-coronavirus/

Fred

Jack,

You did not answer my question about where all the margin positions are coming from but answered with more inuendo and anti-Americanism.

"You know that Schumpetrian creative destruction is a fact of life among small business entrepreneurs who don’t have access to the government trough when they go belly up. The collapse of the Soviet Union is analogous?"

The "creative destruction" Schumpeter was calling for is not a fact of life for small business entrepreneurs at all - risk is. The main risk right now is government. Please see the governments in California and other states creatively destroying an almost $1,000,000 industry:
https://www.restaurant.org/research/restaurant-statistics/restaurant-industry-facts-at-a-glance

The collapse of the USSR is analougous to what is happening to the US economy right now and it is going to much of the private ownership of businesses in the US and shift to foreign control much of the larger publicly traded companies. All with the aid of the anti-Trump left. Governor Comrade Newsome in California is, as of this writing, about to shut down even more of the US economy.
https://abc7.com/6022634/
That provides a great incentive to initiate the economic proposals of the Green New Deal, which is all about transforming the capitalist economy of the US. I'm sure it will all be run for our own interests, as determined by the career professionals of the left. Would anyone like to bet on how far the Dow falls Friday?

Barbara Ann

A Reuters report on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) availability in the US. Some reports have suggested HCQ is effective in mitigating the symptoms of the virus:

"Novartis has 50 million doses in stock, and hopes to produce another 80 million by the end of May for donation. The donations may be sufficient to treat several million patients, depending on the dosing regimen, Novartis said."
The Dutch are developing an aerosol delivery HCQ treatment which is reportedly even more effective than HCQ in oral from (in Dutch). A chink of light from the approaching dawn?

https://www.rtvnoord.nl/nieuws/220259/RUG-onderzoekt-effect-malariamedicijn-op-corona

J

Colonel,

Seems that a few Members of Congress may have used their positions for 'insider trading' dumping their stocks and preventing a massive ding in their personal pocketbooks. Sen. Burr head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Loeffler, Sen. Feinstein, etc..

There are calls now for their resignations and prosecutions claiming they committed insider trading.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/03/20/senators-accused-of-insider-trading-dumping-stocks-after-coronavirus-briefings/#7c5168bf4a45

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/finance/other/us-senators-accused-of-coronavirus-insider-trading-are-a-symbol-of-moral-bankruptcy/ar-BB11vuPF

different clue

Deap,

I am just an amateur science buff, but I don't think that an extended corona recession or corona depression would start any global cooling.

First off, before anything else, I would prefer to not even have a corona recession or a corona depression. The scientific data and understanding gained would not be worth the social, personal, human and economic loss. If we are going to hope for an "accidental experiment" that clarifies the year-to-year workings of climate and helps separate the correct predictors from the incorrect ones, I would prefer it to come in the form of 2-3 years of measurable increase in solar light output, or 2-3 years of measurable decrease in solar light output, or 2-3 years of successive Mt. Pinatubo-type sulfur-rich eruptions to keep the earth in partial shade from incoming sunlight, or some other such accidental experiment.

All that being said, I guess we are going to get a corona recession. I hope it is just a REE-cession and not a DEE-pression. And that it lasts for 6 months or less.

But it will do what it does. And so if it lasts for two years what will happen with weather and climate? I think there will not be any general whole-earth-surface-on-average cooling. The reason I think that is because the global greenhouse gases which have been recently released will stay in the atmosphere from between quite a few years ( nitrogen oxides, methane) to many years ( carbon dioxide). Whereas the particulate pollution will more rapidly settle out back down to the surface. So once all the micro-particles have settled out and if they are not replaced with fresh ones over the next two years, the amount of sunlight getting through to the surface will be increased by 2 or so percent due to the sudden lack of micro-particle shading.

This 2 or so percent increase in unshaded incoming sunlight will eventually break down into 2 or so percent more heat. The remaining-in-place higher loads of greenhouse gases will partially impede the re-radiation of certain infra-red wavelengths back into space. The heat which can't escape via infra-red re-radiation into space will manifest as greater heat buildup at the surface. Some of it will play out in bigger better storms and storm systems here and there, some in bigger better heat waves. A lot will go into melting the Arctic ice faster and some will go into melting the edges of the Antarctic ice faster. And some will go into a faster meltdown and thaw-out of the permafrost.

If the corona slowdown lasts for two years, then I think that by 18 months from now, we will be seeing these expressions of faster heat retention and buildup. If that is what happens, I will feel vindicated in my understanding of current climate processes. If that does NOT happen under such an economic scenario, then I will have to think about why. If everything else remains equal . . . no solar output reduction, no Pinatubo volcanoes, no world-scale forest fires big enough to restore the missing earth-shading micro-particles . . . and still no warming in 1.5 to 2 years, then I will start rethinking my understanding of climate change theory.

If the new coronavid !9 virus doesn't kill me first.

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