« The Idlib cease-fire is already disintegrating. | Main | 2 questions for the Democrats about the debate on the 15th »

15 March 2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Fred

Deap,

"Everything" isn't closed, it's peak tourist season for most non-European visitors. A vacation period for French nationals is not a quarantine.

Envecon

Enlightning video of the scale if the effort needed to stop the disease once its starts getting out of control https://youtu.be/e3gCbkeARbY

John Lee

Should take a look here. Doctors, nurses and health care workers post here on their experiences and exchange notes on covid19.

https://np.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/fk69en/megathread_covid19sarscov2_march_17th_2020/

Constant themes I seen the last few days from reading this sub -
- Total shortage of PPE. Doctors/nurses being told to reuse N95 masks/PPE or are not even given them. Some are contemplating refusing to work unless they are issued adequate PPE.
- Shortage of labor - alot of talk of plans to pull in medical workers outside of their specialties to deal with ICU patients.
- Testing is still inadequate - lack of testing hinders treatment (ie droplet precaution required ? isolation required ? cannot know)
- Lack of facilities to handle covid19 cases - Most notably negative pressure rooms and ventilators.
- ICU Beds at some places are starting to fill up with suspected cases.

Give it a week and we will see whether this is all hysteria. I sincerely hope so because as these doctors/nurses do not have adequate PPE/masks they are going to get hit first and your healthcare capacity is just going to tank.

J

Looks like Defender 2020 NATO Exercise won't have U.S. involvement.

US halts deployment & recalls troops from NATO’s biggest drill ‘Defender Europe 2020’ due to coronavirus threat

https://www.rt.com/news/483231-us-nato-defender-drills-coronavirus/

Terence Gore

"PROCEDURE:
We reviewed a 5-year experience with mechanical ventilation in 383 men with acute respiratory failure and studied the impact of patient age, cause of acute respiratory failure, and duration of mechanical ventilation on survival. Survival rates were 66.6 percent to weaning, 61.1 percent to ICU discharge, 49.6 percent to hospital discharge, and 30.1 percent to 1 year after hospital discharge. When our data were combined with 10 previously reported series, mean survival rates were calculated to be 62 percent to ventilator weaning, 46 percent to ICU discharge, 43 percent to hospital discharge, and 30 percent to 1 year after discharge. Of 255 patients weaned from mechanical ventilation, 44 (17.3 percent) required an additional period of mechanical ventilation during the same hospitalization.

RESULTS:
Age had a significant influence on survival to hospital discharge and on that to 1 year after hospital discharge, and the cause of acute respiratory failure had a significant influence on survival only to weaning. Survival was best in younger patients and those with COPD or postoperative respiratory failure and worst in patients resuscitated after cardiac or respiratory arrest. Increased duration of mechanical ventilation significantly reduced survival only to hospital discharge. Overall survival was significantly affected by age and cause of acute respiratory failure, but not by duration of mechanical ventilation."

I've met several nurses who have said "you are not putting me on one of those things."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8404197

I'm not sure the push for more ventilators and respiratory therapists is a good use of our resources.

LondonBob

The great tragedy of the much more lethal Spanish flu was that it killed the young and healthy, pregnant women were the worst hit. Thankfully this is like any other flu, killing the old and poorly, whilst leaving children unaffected. Unfortunately we live in a more atheistic, materialistic world where the fear of death and desire to eke even just an extra year of life, no matter how it is lived is paramount. I fear the damage that has been done to the economy will have catastrophic effects.

https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic

LondonBob

We have destroyed our economy on the basis of Ferguson and his team at Imperial projecting eighty percent get infected, with 0.9% of those dying, almost all with severe underlying health conditions.

On the Diamond Princess cruise ship were 3711 people.

100% exposure to infection for 4 weeks.
83% uninfected about 400 left the ship after testing negative.
9% infected but no symptoms.
8% infected with mostly mild symptoms. The few severe cases needed 3 weeks to recover.
0.18% (1/500) of total died, all with 3 underlying health conditions. Death in 1st week of infection.

Ship population was heavily skewed to old people. Adjusting age for profile of general population this is a death rate of 1/1000 at most. Annualised, it could well be less, say 0.5/1000 because those with underlying conditions were due to die anyway.

UK annual death rate is about 9.3/1000. In social terms, this is not a big surge and is bringing forward the deaths of the already ill. The real problem is that they might all die at the same moment. Dying at home is no longer done so a lack of hospital capacity has political costs. Thus mitigation.

Suppress or mitigate. Suppression is a great way to fight the last war against SARS. However, CV19 may have a long incubation period and as we see above many asymptotic cases. CV19 can go underground for ages in a young population. Spanish Flu did that. It came back in a colossal 2nd wave. Places that had dealt with the first wave by suppressing it were the most vulnerable this time.

I am afraid we have made an enormous error, based on faulty modelling done by politically biased academics.

Deap

One sees massive marketing for OTC anti-malarial products in Central America, Africa, Pacific Islands and SEA.

Any connection to the relatively mild incidence in these same areas now that anti-malarial drugs are getting touted as a potential cure or preventive agent? (They come with serious side-effects so should not be treated like candy at all - just a curious connection here)

Plus the "hoax Stanford" corona memo -did tout zinc lozenges for their alleged anti-viral benefit too. As was the fad for cold prevention a few years back.

Have at it - just looking at some loose ends here.

Epidemiological research by our crack medical-industrial complex should give us answers soon since this newly touted "anti-malarial" prevention/cure has been lurking in plain site for decades in those countries were it has been marketed OTC (irresponsibly I might add, but it has been widely sold and consumed by large numbers of people in those countries)

Richard Morchoe

Using the tracker daily to see the situation in states I have relatives. Is it cumulative or just the daily figures.

E.g. for Mass. they had one recovery and now it shows none. Other figures seem to change as well. What's happening?

As this was posted almost a week ago, Nobody is probably going to look at this, but we live in hope.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

My Photo

December 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31    
Blog powered by Typepad