« Putin, Erdogan Agree On New Cease Fire In Idlib | Main | Judge Lamberth + Judicial Watch = trouble for Hillary »

06 March 2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Fred

Blue,

Our "career professionals" know best. Just look at the jack#@@ who let the folks fly back from Japan did on his owm "executive authority"; just like LTC Vindman, they know best.

Stephen Wiggins

Casey

"One question: Isn't a three-species jump -- bats to pangolin to human -- in such short a time highly improbable, to put it mildly, perhaps unprecedented?"

Hendra virus - Flying foxes to horses to humans, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henipavirus

Antoinetta III

I have an old US Navy Mark-IV gas-mask lying somewhere about. Would this be any protection against the virus?

Antoinetta III

JJackson

Blue peacock
US pandemic plan https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=2ahUKEwjn1uTTsojoAhXRVsAKHSryDfEQFjABegQIDBAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fpandemic-resources%2Fpdf%2Fpan-flu-report-2017v2.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2F8rwLZ6fLnsWrBqVTY3mw
Once community transmission starts it is normal to have an epidemic growth phase. This is due to the virus circulating below the radar prior to identification of the first case. The second gen cases will start appearing after one incubation cycle (3-14 days) and so on for gen 3,4 etc.
It takes time get your contact tracing up to speed and start isolating carriers before they become infectious. Up to this point it is nothing the authorities can really be blamed for. Too slow on the containment and the clusters just burn out of control and now you can start questioning why your government failed to achieve what the Chinese managed. Italy, S Korea, the US and host of European countries are all in this phase. All the Chinese provinces have been through it but none are in it now. Again see the post which I will re link below as the it covers much of the the epidemiology and testing regime and how they operate to produce the R(0), CFR and CAR.

Brendan & Dr. Alonso
See link below as it looks at the Spike protein in some detail including models of the SARS, MERS and COVID S(Spike) proteins
and a complete table of all the SL bat AA sequences and COVID across S's RBD (receptor binding domain). There is also a graph plotting the bat sequences and COVID across their entire 30,000 nucleotides so you can see where they vary. In the text I try and explain their significance. It also discusses the ACE2 receptor binding which is in Brendan's Nature paper. For those of you who who are happy working with sequence data and phylogenetic analysis try the Nextstrain link which is a tool for displaying the GISAID sequence data. it is intuitive. If you are a clinician and happy with drug protein interactions then follow the first link and a few posts down you will find a link to a 80 page pdf which covers the off label use of the drugs currently in trials and how, and where, they interact with their target proteins and how the functionally equivalent COVID domains differ at the sequence and tertiary protein structure level as the Spike undergoes conformational change.

EO
I have been push gloves for years in the flu season. They do not need to be surgical, leather gloves will do. The problem is virus picked up from hard surfaces are then transferred to the eyes, nose and mouth by your hands. Scratching an itch or rubbing your eyes are subconscious actions and very difficult to train yourself not to do. If you have gloves on then it will become a conscious action as your brain tells you sticking a glove in your eye is not a good idea.

j casey
The short time between bats (or pangolins) to COVID, one of this beta CoV's human versions with SARS and MERS being the others, is 30ish years. For an RNA virus this is plenty of time to make those changes. Sequences from wild animals are rare and take a lot of effort to collect so it is no great surprise that we do not have these missing links. Again discussed in more detail at the link. It is only because they went looking for the source after SARS that we have the bat sequences at all.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=2ahUKEwjn1uTTsojoAhXRVsAKHSryDfEQFjABegQIDBAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fpandemic-resources%2Fpdf%2Fpan-flu-report-2017v2.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2F8rwLZ6fLnsWrBqVTY3mw

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?branchLabel=aa&c=country&m=div&p=full

different clue

JJackson,

After wearing gloves as a reminder to not touch one's face, is there a powerful on-contact virus killer one can "wash and scrub" the gloves with when getting ready to take them off and put them down somewhere that is KNOWN to be virus-free?

Charlotte Danan,

"Thus, it seems that, in the end, behaves like a neuro-chemical agent, isn´t it...?

No, it isn't. In fact, to my purely layman's amateur science buff mind, it is actually very clear that it ISN'T
and it DOESN'T.

Also, it seems both obvious and apparent to me that nobody here ever claimed it WAS a "simple flu" because everybody here knows better than to confuse "influenza" with "coronavirus" to begin with. Everybody except you,
perhaps? Though if you can offer written proof that somebody here on these threads sought to foster a confusion between coronavirus and a "simple flu", I will read any written proof that you can show.

turcopolier

DC

The whole "Danan" operation is just a troll factory. I post their thing occasionally for the purpose pf providing foils for you all.

Jack

“Up to this point it is nothing the authorities can really be blamed for.”

JJackson,

Could the government have done more to test and quarantine those that traveled to China when it was evident there was a problem in China? I’ve heard of several people who have traveled from China, Korea and Italy recently who were neither tested nor quarantined.

Could CDC have done more to inform the public on precautionary measures when the outbreak was first reported in Wuhan?

I get my healthcare through Kaiser. As of today I have not received any communication from them on precautionary measures.

We have the most expensive healthcare system in the world, yet we can’t test at scale. South Korea has tested 160,000 people. We have tested less than 1,500. As I noted earlier, my grandson is a physician at a VA facility. They have zero test kits. Yesterday they were informed that they can’t see any patients unless they test negative. With no testing available at their facility, he can’t see any of his patients.

To me it looks like a major SNAFU. Massive incompetence. And all kinds of excuses being proffered.

The Twisted Genius

Jack,

I was wondering what the VA was doing since I have to go to the VA hospital in Richmond in two weeks. I got this email today. Since none of my appointments have been cancelled, I gather the Central Virginia VA system is not stopping patient treatment without the COVID-19 test.

"Beginning Tuesday, March 9, 2020, at 6:00 a.m., the Central Virginia VA Health Care System will begin screening all guests and employees at select entrances across the facility and our community clinics. All patients coming to the facility for an appointment should plan to arrive approximately one hour early, as we expect some delays in entry to the facility. Additionally, the valet service at our main entrance will cease operation to help mitigate any potential coronavirus transmissions among our Veteran population.
Please know that our Veterans’ health will remain our top priority as we work to limit the spread of viruses."

I imagine the screening will consist of a series of health and travel questions and nothing beyond that unless this initial screening warrants further action. Without the test kits, I don't know what this further action would entail. I'm going to the Fredericksburg VA clinic on Monday so I'll let everyone know how the screening goes.

walrus

The current Coronavirus tests produce a lot of false negatives. In addition infected people can be almost asymptomatic. We have a case here today, a doctor (GP) returned from the USA last week with a minor cold that was already resolving.

He has treated 70+ patients and for curiosity had the test on Thursday even though he did not meet testing criteria - it is positive.

It’s therefore difficult to see what mass testing would have achieved and in any case I guess it’s now academic.

JJackson

dc re the gloves. Mine are leather and absorbent so I do not use anything. I place them on a window sill by the front door when I come home in the vain hope that the sunshine UV will help (fat chance in the north of England in winter). If they can be wiped then anything with 65%+ alcohol will work. I am not trying to achieve BSL lab conditions just minimizing a common infection route.

Jack The US is going to get a large spike of cases shortly as until the 28th Feb the CDC had only tested 500 cases. In the UK we used 2500 tests to find 9 positive cases. In a chat between a NY infectious disease specialist to a 1000 MD practice in the NY area, with a virologist, they discussed the current feed back he was getting from Doctors and most of the cases they are fairly sure are going to be CoV are not getting tested due to lack of capacity. NY (and other states) have been allowed to develop their own tests (slight relaxation of the rules) due to the problems CDC have had in getting them a working test. Could the US have done more, I am sure we all could have done better but this is the biggest public heath problem the world has suffered for over a century and it is going to be a steep learning curve for all. It was relatively easy to check everyone coming from Wuhan at the outset but China has a far lower disease burden per cap then most other countries today and is no longer a place you need worry about. Today Italy and Egypt seem to be coming up as the countries exporting cases, tomorrow who knows.

JJackson

All - my apologies the link I provide yesterday was to the 80 page pdf not my 2000 word post which can be found here.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/826486-covid-ncov-preliminary-thoughts-jjackson-personal-opinion

JJackson

TTG re your hospital visit there has been a confirmed case today in a marine from Fort Belvoir with a second presumptive positive in Fairfax. He has been hospitalised but I do not know where. Updates will probably be posted here https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/virginia-covid-19/834810-1st-case-in-va-confirmed

Walrus the Dr. in the interview I referenced above also says they are having great difficulty developing an algorithm for doctors to use to decide who to prioritise for testing. The symptoms set matches their normal case load at this time of year. It is only later in disease progression that it begins to diverge by which point they have been shedding virus for days.
Interview podcast. http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

The Twisted Genius

JJackson,

SWMBO heard that on the 11 o'clock news last night and hollered/relayed it to me since I was already upstairs. Our oldest son lives in Alexandria and works on Belvoir. Happily he's spending the long weekend alone in a cabin in a West Virginia State Park taking part in a HAM competition. He revels in the solitude. The Marine recently returned from overseas and is being treated at the hospital at Belvoir. I don't know if he will be transferred elsewhere. The Fairfax case is in his 80s and recently returned from a Nile cruise.

I received an email from my alumni group this morning about "social distancing protocols" being implemented on campus.

There are no confirmed or suspected cases on campus at this time. In an abundance of caution, the following social distancing protocols were implemented:
- All public events with 50 or more attendees that include participation of outside individuals are cancelled.
- All internal seminars with external speakers will be considered on a case-by-case basis with input from an occupational physician and/or the Student Health Center.
- All Rensselaer community members are asked not to attend large external events in the local area.
These protocols will remain in place until they are rescinded by the Institute. All classes will continue on a normal schedule."

I think a wider use of such social distancing and quarantine procedures would be good way of getting a handle on the spread of COVID-19. I see Italy is starting a drastic and far reaching quarantine. Perhaps we could do something similar. The temporary closure of international air travel might be a good start. Trump could do that in conjunction with closing the northern and southern borders. Of course this would cause economic disruption especially in the travel, hotel and entertainment industries. And that's the rub. I bet the "powers that be" are perfectly willing to accept thousands of deaths for continued profits. The political and corporate will for risking profits or doing the right thing is very weak. It's too bad. I think our society would greatly benefit from a little enforced solitude.

Finally, thanks JJackson and Walrus for your information and comments on this subject.

Jack

Are you more or less confident?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1236674396867170305?s=21

J

Colonel,

COVID19 has killed the 'Butcher of Tehran' Mohammad Haj Abolghasemi, 71, leader of the Basji forces affiliate of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Abolghasemi was an intelligence officer and battalion commander in the Basij. Abolghasemi died Tuesday.

J

China’s COVID19 recovery is ‘all fake,’ whistleblowers and residents claim.

walrus

Thank you to JJackson for his continuing advice. I am now out of my depth technically.

I am trying to work with some more experienced neighbours and friends to develop and implement our own local “pandemic plan”. Our town council should take the lead but for various good reasons that appears unlikely.

blue peacock

South Korea is the model. They tested aggressively and isolated people. Over 160,000 people tested, identified 7,300 people infected with 50 fatalities.

Our numbers will be much higher because we haven't yet started testing large numbers of people. We are not going to be able to start containment until we start testing at scale and isolating those infected even if they're asymptomatic.

CDC should have acted the first week of January. In the US politics and media relations play a bigger role than actually getting the job done.

J

Colonel,

Another note of interest, it seems that 'Sister Mary' Masoumeh Ebtekar has tested positive with COVID19. Ebtekar first achieved her infamy as "Mary", the mouthpiece of those who took American hostages and occupied our Embassy in 1979.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

My Photo

November 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30          
Blog powered by Typepad