"Trump Gives Conditional Go Ahead on Peace Deal With Taliban" NY Times

" More than 18 years after the United States invaded Afghanistan, President Trump has conditionally approved a peace deal with the Taliban that would withdraw the last American troops from the country, potentially beginning the end of America’s longest war, according to Afghan and American officials.

But the deal will only be signed if the Taliban prove their commitment to a durable reduction of violence over a test period of about seven days later this month. If the Taliban do end hostilities and a deal is signed, the United States would then begin a gradual withdrawal of American troops, and direct negotiations would start between the Taliban and Afghan leaders over the future of their country.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo informed Afghanistan’s top leaders in separate phone calls on Tuesday that Mr. Trump had given tentative approval to this approach, according to a senior Afghan official briefed on one of the calls."  NY Times

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I told'em so 11 years ago.  See linked IQ2 debate from 2009.

https://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/america-cannot-and-will-not-succeed-afghanistanpakistan

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-peace-deal.html

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Comments

[Artemesia]

Your link called up something strange.

This one posted Pat Lang debating,
October 12, 2009
America Cannot And Will Not Succeed In Afghanistan/Pakistan
https://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/america-cannot-and-will-not-succeed-afghanistanpakistan

[Peter VE]

If this happens, I will vote for him. I have yet to vote for a Republican in 40 years, generally Libertarian.

[Les]

Meanwhile, there was an article on the CIA helping the government assassinate the political opposition.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/06/nds-afghanistan-intelligence-dissident-murder-cia-help/

The US is there for the long run.

[JamesT]

I fear this is a head fake. He has every incentive to promise a pull out, then renege after the election. It is a smart move politically however.

[anon]

Good news for afghanistan.bad news for iran.

[Richard Morchoe]

Is this not a fig leaf to get us out and then, after a decent or indecent interval, the Taliban walks into Kabul?

That more or less happened in Vietnam, but this time it is even more impossible to fool ourselves.

Even so, bugging out is saner than staying.

[anon]

Well in form
Did clap and salute
With hand and foot
A relation in uni form

The passing parade
Lead by a band that played
Music that danced and swayed
I watched in the shade

Soldiers home from the war
As they passed me by
Under a blue sky
Like waves rolling onto the shore.

[JM Gavin]

The Quetta Shura doesn't control local "Taliban" and never have. The vast majority of "Taliban" are thugs and warlords that call themselves "Taliban" to appear to have some legitimacy or justification for their actions. They are criminal and tribal organizations, not a political organization. If the "Big T Taliban" (the Quetta Shura, who are a political organization) ever gain control of the country, the local "Taliban" will start fighting them.

We have been negotiating with the Quetta Shura. Whether or not they intend to deliver is immaterial, as they can't deliver.

DOL

JM Gavin

[TedBuila]

Gradual, tentative, conditionally, proof test period = 7 days...IMO more gypse talk for the hard of hearing.

What are the odds that next year this time the combined troop and contractor numbers in Afghanistan will be in the multiple Ks?

[Sbin]

Withdrawal agreement seems more accurate.
Should have happened 18 years ago.
Such a sickening waste of life reputation and treasury.

[Rick Farmer]

A waiting period is just another opportunity for the Borg to drag their feet and come up with another excuse to stay.

[Diana Croissant]

Is a test period of seven days (one week) long enough to prove their commitment to the deal?

(I think a recalcitrant teenager could behave for seven days if he were promised the keys to a car. It wouldn't mean that he would use those keys with restraint after behaving for only a week.}

[Walrus]

“America generally does the right thing - after it has tried everything else” - Churchill.

[Serge]

I'm not inclined to conspiracy theories, but does anyone think that this has anything to do with the US plane downed two weeks ago or the American contractor kidnapped last week? Both stories got almost zero coverage, especially the kidnapping.

[Prawnik]

If Trump actually manages to get a peace deal close to inked, expect a torrent of "we're abandoning Muh Faithful Allies" in 5..4..3..2..1..

Also, expect a lot of people to suddenly morph from being internet experts on Russia, Crimean Tatars and also Kurds to being internet experts on Tajiks and Hazara.

Of course, let's also not kid ourselves - the writing is surely on the wall for the Afghan government.

[confusedponderer]

Richard Morchoe,
re Even so, bugging out is saner than staying.

Ain't it remarkable:

There you have the Grand Strategerist Trump, a sort of successfull showmaster and Krank Spieler who sucessfully avoided Vietnam with a nasty foot.

There is a man who has the gall and nerve to tell his Generals (who risked health and lives fighting for the country) that they are babies and losers for not winning the Afghanistan war in 11 years - and he now "wins that war" with his wildly successful Vietnam strategrey - bugging out?

If he had a Medal of Honor, Legion of Merit, Silver Star or Bronze Star, Purple Heart or just a Combat Action Badge they may perhaps accept that, but alas ... there was that nasty bone spur in the way of glory. Which is probably why he likes Golf so much - the golf buggys save his probably still ill foot, just like a crutch in platinum.

After all, the pesky wannabes like his generals certainly would have clearly WON BIG BIG BIG (WOBIBIBI?) if only they had Trump among their troops in actually rather dangerous and hard battles ... if only that nasty foot had been well, of course. He'd certainly have become a field marshal.

On the other hand cunning north vietnam officers may have tried to nastily distract him by deliberately dropping golf clubs on the battle field - nasty, cheaper and more enteraining than mines or artillery too. Is there a decoration for "OUCH" Severe soulder defect for playing hard golf in fierce battle"?

[Serge]

Prawnik,

Taliban in 2020 has wide influence in Tajik areas, unlike in 2001 and before.