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02 February 2020

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JohninMK

There seems to be the prospect in the US of a repeat of our last UK election when Boris crushed the Labour Party.

Paul Damascene

Larry, what I particularly value in your contributions is your analysis of evidence. Certainly the DNC leaks issue is of interest here, as would be more on Clinton's private e-mail server, Uranium One, the bipartisan corruption of and in Ukraine--the Bidens, sedition and the security state, FBI and FISA malfeasance, the FISC's own misconduct in not responding the Nunez memo, implications of the Wray apology for the Durham investigation.

Political views on the wonders of Trump and foibles of Sanders are available elsewhere. I don't contest the validity of writing on these things, just telling you as a reader where I find your talents best employed.

Best wishes, and with thanks for your efforts to date.

Artemesia

I wouldn't beat the drums for the economy quite so loudly, the percussion might burst the bubble that is the stock market, inflated by Fed funny-money.

How many construction cranes will fall silent or be reclaimed by their rental agencies when the Fed tightens the spigot?

Maybe it's having been raised by parents who lived thru Depression: "Be saving in the time of plenty."
Or the academic study of Tulip bubbles and the real world experience of housing bubbles.

Be very careful with your finances, ladies & gentlemen.

---
Otherwise, well done, Larry Johnson: Dems are James Dean playing chicken -- Rebels without a cause.

Jane

I recall that following 2016 and Debbie W-S claim that yes it was a smoke filled room in which they decided on the candidate the DNC was going to choose, The reformists, outraged by this fame fought hard to revise the rules, winning some battles, but not others. So, for instance, the superdelegates will remain but may not participate in the first round. Perez is a hard-liner and is going to do everything in his power to stop Bernie, as is, of course, Hillary.

Ken

Trump’s mistake was taking ownership of the economy when it was starting to soar, then pumping cheap money into it and inflating bubbles. As a result, when it crashes as it surely will, the Democrats will tie it around his neck.

walrus

The Democrats have embraced identity politics which will destroy any chance of electoral success in my opinion. That is what happened to the British and Australian labor parties last elections and it is also the reason for HRCs failure in 2016.

Furthermore, first generation immigrants don’t want to replicate their culture, they want the American dream. Their grandchildren might want to “identify” as hispanic, etc., but not their parents or grandparents. Identity politics only plays in the white middle classes.

ambrit

Sir;
I guess I'll have to be the one to stand up and "take one" for Sanders.
We are in agreement that the present iteration of the Democrat Party is a freak show. However, the Democrat Party once ruled America with a semi-socialist program. This was after FDR saved unfettered capitalism from itself. Remember the Bonus March and all the outright violent strikes? On each wing were such luminaries as Father Coughlin and Huey Long. The New Deal and then WW-2 saved America from ruin.
That said, I'll state that Sanders is no Trotskyite. He does not call for the destruction of the government. Indeed, he seems to want to return the American governing system to that which ran America under such "Commies" as Eisenhower and Truman.
Bill Clinton and later Barak Obama sold the American working classes a bill of goods. Most policies that these two enacted mainly benefited the upper classes, not the formerly traditional Democrat base, the working classes. Despite the paper improvements to the American economy, most "average" people are seeing their standards of living fall. The anger at that, and the dawning realization of having been sold out by the Democrat Party can be credited with helping Trump win in 2016, that and the abysmal campaign run by the Clinton organization.
I'll end by mentioning a saying from antiquity: "Moderation in all things."
We live in interesting times.

Herman Young

Democrats are simply harvesting what they themselves have sown - several generations of teacher-union dominated public K-12 indoctrination - they are harvesting their own self-generated rabid Bernie Sanders supporters. Could they not see this was coming?

turcopolier

ambrit
There is noting moderate about Bernie. He can't even tell the media how much his stargazing would cost.

Fred

ambrit,

While I'm a fan of social security and the CCC I don't think FDR "saved" America from the Depression and there is some evidence that he might have made it last longer than it otherwise would have.

"Moderation in all things."?
None of the Democratic candidates, especially Bernie, promise that. Just look at current life in California or the recent legislative action in Virginia. Moderate is the last thing we can expect any of them to be.

johnf

According to Rolling Stone, Sanders leads in donations from the US Military:

"No other 2020 candidate for president, including Donald Trump, can come close to matching Bernie Sanders’ level of support among members of the U.S. military, to go by the most recent campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission.

Soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines have donated a total of $185,625 to Sen. Sanders’ 2020 campaign. By comparison, they have given $113,012 to Trump, $80,250 to Pete Buttigieg, $64,604 to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and a relatively paltry $33,045 to former Vice President Joe Biden, according to Doug Weber, a senior researcher at the Center for Responsive Politics."

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/bernie-sanders-leads-trump-all-2020-candidates-in-donations-from-active-duty-troops-946188/

This could change if, as I suspect, Trump pulls peace deals out of his hat before the election with Iran and N Korea.

Lawrence Foster

Larry - I thought congressman Smallball's interview on NBC w/PMS was the perfect metaphor for the impeachment hearings. Lots of noise and noxious gas, but over quickly.

Bill H

"The New Deal and then WW-2 saved America from ruin."

A popular meme which is wrong on both counts. When the New Deal programs ended due to sunset provisions just before WW2 the nation promptly plunged back into recession, and at the end of WW2 this nation's economy was a total train wreck, with grossly excessive debt and consumer goods all but totally unavailable.

What brought this nation to prosperity was the conversion from wartime to peacetime production, a vast supply of labor due to returning servicemen, and a world manufacturing capacity that was destroyed almost in its entirety by war, with our capacity alone able to produce the goods needed by the entire world.

Sid Finster

Crackpot conspiracy theories aside, Trump won in 2016 because he eked out a series of razor thin victories in three states (WI, MI and PA) that have gone for Team D in recent elections. I think his total margin of victory in all three of those states combined was something like 60,000 votes. That alone was the electoral equivalent of rolling snake eyes, and doing it three times in a row.

But there’s more – not only was Trump running as an outsider against the odious HRC, she didn’t bother to seriously campaign in any of those states. Obnoxious as she is, had she just made a little focused effort, she’d probably be president today.

And boy howdy, is she obnoxious! In Michigan alone, if the people who otherwise voted a straight Team D ticket but left the “president” section blank had voted a straight Team D ticket, HRC would have won Michigan. She’s that unlikable – people actually went out of their way not to vote for her. I have no idea whether she could have won Wisconsin or Pennsylvania similarly.

Furthermore, after getting elected, Trump hasn’t done a whole hell of a lot for the average frustrated working people in those states. The electorate were already seething with white hot incandescent rage in 2016. That is what made Trump a possibility in the first place. The public have only gotten madder since then.

In other words, a Trump victory is far from assured.

Flavius

The Republican Party has recovered reasonably well from the Trump shock; the Comey/Clapper/Brennan reaction to it has ruined the reputations of their respective institutions among people who are even minimally knowledgeable about how these institutions should operate; the reaction of the establishment fourth estate has left it in disgrace, reducing its stature from estate to partisan hack for the Evil Party; the Evil Party, attempting to find itself in a shattered mirror, is full blown in the midst of a nervous breakdown with too many identities to reconcile. Foaming at the mouth over Trump will not address its real problems, even less will deplorablizing half the country. Only time will tell how much damage it does to the national fabric thrashing about in its fury.

Larry Johnson

Sid,
Are you the Crackpot Pot calling the kettle black? Have you been asleep for the last three years? Your claim, "Trump hasn’t done a whole hell of a lot for the average frustrated working people in those states" is beyond ridiculous. If Democrat leaders embrace your kind of nonsense they are most certainly dead politically.
In Trump's last two rallies, held in state's in the grip of winter weather, had combined ticket requests totaling more than 300,000. Hell, the Washington Redskins could not draw 100,000 fans if they gave away tickets and offered free blow jobs from cheerleaders. We've never seen anything like the Trump appeal. Yet, people like you keep trying to pretend it is not real. Good luck with that.

divadab

@ambrit; Sid F:

Yes. The older conservatives who comment here don't get the appeal of Bernie Sanders. I mean, that he went to the Soviet Union back in the bronze age is the best criticism they can come up with? The Soviet Union was dissolved almost thirty years ago, for pete's sake. (Something the current corporatist Dems seem to have forgotten in their faked up Russia-Russia-Russia hysteria, but I digress). In a nation that is eating its young in so many ways, not least subjecting them to perpetual debt servitude (thx Joe Biden), Sanders' message of tangible benefits for ALL CITIZENS, especially wresting control of the medical system, a public good, out of the hands of the filthiest profiteers in the world to benefit everybody has a universal appeal.

Just wait - if the Democraps don't succeed in cheating Bernie out of the nomination like they did last time, he will be hard for Trump to beat. If they do cheat him in favor of Bloomberg or Klobuchar, Trump will get the largest majority ever.

I'd say even odds of either occurring.

Upstate NY'er

Trump is hated by academics, administrative state (the bureaucracy), media, Hollywood, career politicians and various hangers-on.
Add all of their votes up.
Maybe enough to elect a Congressman.
Ah, you say:
"It's the influence, not the votes."
All of these groups are pretty much loathed by the electorate,so their noise-making is an echo chamber.

Eric Newhill

Too funny that the Democrats starting drawing the Marxist super hero on the wall back in the Obama days and, now that it's jumped off the wall and is actively stomping around in the party and taking heads, they're in a panic trying to figure out how to make it 2D again. The Ds are experiencing well deserved karma. John Kerry says Bernie must not be allowed to win the nomination and might even run to stop him. A party in total disarray with nothing to offer but madness, hate and failed ideology.

BTW, the economy is not in a bubble and is not going to implode or anything like that, though I've noticed that such dire predictions are becoming the latest lefty talking points; just more negativity from the usual suspects.

turcopolier

divadab

How was YOUR Intourist visit to the USSR? You think a communist can be elected? There are that many college kids and professors?

divadab

Colonel - never went near the USSR other than its pavilion at Expo 67. I'm a capitalist, never had a govt job ever, run my own retirement money because I have no pension, having worked in the corporate world where I was part of the crew that replaced pensions with 401k's. Which works for me but not for most. Government pensions much better for most people, eh?

I think you have a too narrow view of who supports Sanders. Do you not think most people are disgusted by the corruption and self-dealing of our political elites? Say what you like about Bernie he's not in it for the money. Where every other candidate is devoted to weakening or destroying any federal program that benefits all citizens equally, he wants to extend universal programs. Just that makes him the only candidate worth voting for. Medicare for all is his idea and he's the only one who is serious about it. The rest are liars. And your man Trump is already packpedaling on his promise to protect social security, which the Republicans have been gunning for forever.

Sid Finster

@Larry Johnson: Look at income inequality statistics since 2008. For that matter, look at the number of Americans who cannot scrape together $400 without borrowing or selling something.

Trump is popular among a segment of Americans. Never said he wasn't. In my own state, there are plenty of people who view the man as a near-deity and treat the slightest criticism of the man as blasphemy.

But will that be enough to get Trump re-elected? Maybe, but it's not like people who wholeheartedly support a given candidate get two votes and people who are lukewarm only get one vote.

steve

Bill H- Depends upon how you define economic ruin. Link goes to US unemployment rate. It dropped from about 25% in about 1932 to 10% in 1941, then down around 2% in 44-45. So if you think an economy is bad if you cant find work, that problem was clearly made better. Kind of what you might expect with a wartime economy.

https://herb.ashp.cuny.edu/items/show/1510

Real GDP grew almost every year after 33, except for 38, until the war ended. 46 was a bad year then growth took off again. Agree that putting all of those returning soldiers to work was key to our prosperity and it helped that our industrial base was intact.

jerseycityjoan

ambrit,

I also want the Democratic Party to return to the days when it was the party of the working man.

I support some of what they want to do but the identity politics is a big turnoff for many people who would otherwise support them, as is their movement towards a virtual open borders policy.

What Sanders and Warren want will cost too much and never get through Congress yet its idealism is appealing. The more moderate candidates have their appeal but aren't doing so well; maybe they will do better as the race goes on. Trump has many faults and I criticize him every day yet I just might end up voting for him over immigration.

Both parties are far apart on some big issues. Obama and Trump were both stymied by their inability to get legislation passed and used executive orders too much. I expect a repeat of that in the next four years whoever gets elected.

Herman Young

Sid, I'll bite. Where does Bernie plan to get all this money he will be spending? Specific funding streams please, not vague generalities? Under what degree of mandate and/or voluntary confiscation. Can he do with by Executive Order or does he also need willing Congress.

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