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21 February 2020

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Serge

I have very low hopes for this peace deal to bear fruit in the form of US withdrawal, but if it does I will wait on the edge of my seat to see if predictions of a decentralized Taliban collapse into warring pro-ISIS and pro-Al Qaeda factions occurs.

james

Pat - stupid question..

when has the usa withdrawn it's troops from a country in the last 20 years? can it even happen?

Bob Saccamanno

I fear we'll be back in within a decade. The Taliban will turn their sights toppling the corrupt regime in Islamabad - transforming history into tragic irony. Then they would have access to the nuclear program. Please explain why I'm wrong. I'm not an expert on that region beyond a CP Kushner sized library on it but it seems to me the roads of influence and power projection paved by the ISI decades ago can run in both directions.

The Beaver

Isn't Sharuddin Haqqani on the FBI's most wanted list?
Who is his messenger to get the Gray Lady as a platform?

turcopolier

The Beaver

Khalilzad?

turcopolier

James

Obama withdrew our troops from Iraq. The rise of IS came afterward causing us to re-enter the country. I suppose "Can it happen" is MIC bullshit.

Andrei Martyanov

I fear we'll be back in within a decade. The Taliban will turn their sights toppling the corrupt regime in Islamabad - transforming history into tragic irony.

It may be corrupt but if it cooperates with China and Russia it could be propped up. No one wants to see Pakistan's nukes getting into Taliban's hands. India is also a player there. It is complicated. In the end, the North is primarily Uzbek and Tajik and who knows what that means under new Eurasian arrangements.

Richard Morchoe

"I fear we'll be back in within a decade. "

Maybe, but I remember all the post-Vietnam predictions about dominos.

We left no forwarding address and they disconnected the phone and we all lived happily ever after.

If we go, as dumb as Congress is, I doubt they will ever vote another authorization for an adventure in the graveyard of empires.

Peter AU1

A number of countries have been reduced to geographical expressions in the last two decades.
Six out of seven.. and Trump fully focused on Wesley Clark's number seven.

robt willmann

In an article printed in the International Herald Tribune newspaper in 2004, former CIA officer Milt Bearden wrote about the Pashtuns and Jalaluddin Haqqani, the father of Sirajuddin Haqqani--

"As the CIA officer overseeing the final years of the war against the Soviet occupiers of Afghanistan, I served as a 20th century American version of the British East India Company political agent and quartermaster to these same Waziri Ahmadzai tribesmen as they stymied all Soviet efforts to 'exert a little authority.' Their leader then was Jalaluddin Haqqani, a man of uncommon personal courage, and a deeply nuanced understanding of guerilla tactics. Though his current whereabouts are unknown –- some say he died of wounds from a U.S. air attack -– Haqqani has transitioned from America’s best friend during the anti-Soviet war to its worst enemy in the current undertaking in Afghanistan. He is at the top of the list of America’s most wanted, and it is his spirit and the Pashtun code of honor that continue to drive the Ahmadzai tribesmen against whom both the Pakistani Army and American forces are lined up."

https://www.counterpunch.org/2004/03/31/mired-in-the-tracks-of-alexander-the-great/

https://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/31/opinion/the-pashtuns-of-afghanistan-alexander-the-great-also-got-in-trouble.html

A couple who had been around the State Department gave me a book for Christmas in 2003 by Milt Bearden and James Risen entitled, "The Main Enemy, The Inside Story of the CIA's Final Showdown with the KGB". The epilogue to the book says: "Jalaluddin Haqqani, the fierce mujahideen commander of Paktia Province, reached an accord with the Taliban after their 1994 victory. By the time the United States attacked Afghanistan in 2001, Haqqani was on the U.S. wanted list".

Morongobill

The Talibs have been on the scene since the time of Churchill, if not longer. I never read about them invading other countries through conquest. Maybe they just want the foreigners out and for the Great Game do be played somewhere else. Afghanistan for the Afghans.

A simplistic take on things but sometime simple is best.

We need to get the Hell out of that "Graveyard of Empires."

turcopolier

PeterAU1

Afghanistan was always just a "geographical expression." What other countries are you referring to? I will discuss them one by one.

J

Afghanistan
The most 'forgotten' war in Soviet history.
https://youtu.be/aMh1ViEILFM

Peter AU1

Libya - Haftar is slowly putting it back together, but for a long time it has been a geographical area rather than a nation.
Syria - Syrian government control approx half the land mass, Turkey and US via proxies and presence controlling the rest.
Yemen - A lead from behind war for the US, Houthi movement uniting some to common cause, the rest of the country controlled by Saudi and UAE.
Iraq - on and off as a nation. Divided on US since Soleimani killing, weak and or toothless leadership both political and religious.
Saleh of Yemen I think termed it 'dancing on the heads of snakes'.
So many different religious, ethnic and political or ideologic groups in some of the areas marked on a map as countries, that once broken it ius very difficult to put them back together as a nation.

turcopolier

PeterAU1

Not a bad list but I would argue that none of these places were ever nation states. they were artificially created states that were multinational nd now they have fallen apart. Surprise!

elaine

Is it of any coincidence that the countries being mentioned are
Muslim? Nigeria, Africa currently is experiencing a violent schism between the north & south based in great part by religious
differences, radicalization & general intolerance.

Presently the U.S. is constructing drone posts in parts of central Africa; to what extent these posts will be staffed is unknown to me.

Peter AU1

My impression is that most borders in the region a lines on a map delineating territories held by Britain and European powers of the day.
Russian federation is multi ethnic and multi religion yet can pull together as a nation under the right leadership.
Middle east MENA seems more susceptible to divide and conquer Saddam in Iraq, Gaddafi in Libya, the Assads in Syria, and for a short time Saleh in Yemen were able to pull their countries into something of a nation state.
As I see it, Putins biggest asset in putting Russia back together is his ability as a mediator between differing groups.
Similar in Mena but perhaps more as Saleh termed it 'dancing on the heads of snakes'.

Serge

Very interesting Taliban media photos of two separate training camps released this month:'

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/02/taliban-fighters-train-at-mullah-mansoor-military-camp.php

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/02/taliban-promotes-mujahideen-graduates-from-one-of-its-military-training-camps.php

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