The ME may yet destroy Trump

President Trump will easily be acquitted in the senate trial.  This may occur this week and there will probably be no witnesses called.  That will be an additional victory for him and will add to the effect of his trade deal victories and the general state of the US economy.  These factors should point to a solid victory in November for him and the GOP in Congress.

Ah!  Not so fast the cognoscenti may cry out.  Not so fast.  The Middle East is a graveyard of dreams:

1.  Iraq.  Street demonstrations in Iraq against a US alliance are growing more intense.  There may well have been a million people in Muqtada al-Sadr's extravaganza.  Shia fury over the death of Soleimani is quite real.  Trump's belief that in a contest of the will he will prevail over the Iraqi Shia is a delusion, a delusion born of his narcissistic personality and his unwillingness to listen to people who do not share his delusions.  A hostile Iraqi government and street mobs would make life unbearable for US forces there. 

2.  Syria.  The handful of American troops east and north of the Euphrates "guarding" Syrian oil from the Syrian government are in a precarious position with the Shia Iraqis at their backs across the border and a  hostile array of SAA, Turks, jihadis and potentially Russians to their front and on their flanks.

3.  Palestine.  The "Deal of the Century" is approaching announcement.  From what is known of its contours, the deal will kill any remaining prospects for Palestinian statehood and will relegate all Palestinians (both Israeli citizens and the merely occupied) to the status of helots forever .  Look it up.  In return the deal will offer the helotry substantial bribes in economic aid money.  Trump evidently continues to believe that Palestinians are untermenschen .  He believe they will sell their freedom. The Palestinian Authority has already rejected this deal.  IMO their reaction to the imposition of this regime is likely to be another intifada.

Some combination of the disasters that may emerge from these ME factors might well turn Trump's base against him and this result would be entirely of his own making.  pl

Comments

[anon]

Where are the comments cosmo.

[b]

@Pat

something is wrong with the comments.

On the main page it shows 20+ comments on this thread.

But when I click on the thread I only see one comment (Elora Danan 26 January 2020 at 11:24 AM)

Only after I myself posted a comment did I see all the other ones.

This is the second time this happened after you reopened the comments.

I have no explanation for this.

(Feel free to delete this.)

[PeterVE]

It seems to me that Iran can exert more influence on the next election than the "Russians" did on the last one.
If they prefer Trump, they could attack the Saudi oil installations a few weeks before the November election, counting on a rally round the flag effect to redound to Trump.
If they decide they'd be better off with the Democratic nominee, they would attack the oil installations shortly, precipitating a run up in oil prices, and a recession biting as the election comes.

[Barbara Ann]

b

Whatever happened in Afghanistan, I am sure you are right about Iran's planned escalatory revenge in the wider region. However, I do not think that this will be the determinant of whether/when war with Iran will come.

Alastair Crooke's last piece makes that case that domestic political warring in the US is driving the US inexorably towards war, primarily because the neocons are able to use it to their advantage. As EEngineer says above, if they can't get their war with Trump, they'll be happy to try with Pence.

Crooke's main point is that irrational exceptionalists are driving this wagon to war:

"But the U.S. is not engaged in the kind of think-tank strategic analysis outlined above. It is playing to win its internal, dirty civil war – by any means. The military-security establishment wants Mid-East energy dominance; it will not tolerate any threat to its dollarised financial weaponry advantage that a Russian-led mini Belt and Road might imply – and it will not allow Israel to fold"

I fear he is right - unless the potential cost escalates all the way to Russia explicitly backing Iran in a defense pact. Absent that, the JCPOA will die and Iran hawks will have their binary choice; total Iranian capitulation - or a strike on her nuclear facilities.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/01/27/iran-becomes-the-prize-to-americas-warring-parties-rites-of-war/

[mohamad]

Thank you for returning the comments. I like my food with flavors, and the same applies with this site.

[turcopolier]

b et al

Click on "recent comments" rather than "posts." I am happy to bequeath Elora Danan to you.

[prawnik]

https://twitter.com/LongLiveYemen/status/1221205974347911168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1221612853225906177&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.middleeastmonitor.com%2F20200127-yemens-houthis-make-biggest-gains-against-hadi-forces%2F

If any of the above content is accurate, seems that the Saudis are having another bad day.

[frankie p]

Thank you for enabling the comments, Colonel Lang. I am continuously impressed by your ability to present Trump in a fair, nuanced light. So many analysts and commentators take such a black/white approach. Trump has had some good effects for the United States as a whole. As you said, the economy of the US has improved, and this is an extremely important outcome, especially as the job market has also improved. The Supreme Court decision yesterday that will enable the Trump Administration to make it more difficult for low-income, public assistance-dependent immigrants to come in and stay in the US could also go some distance in realizing some of the promises he made about this important issue. He has also done some crazy things, especially in foreign policy regarding the Middle East. Your comment about his ignorance is spot on, and your past observations about how he is greatly influenced by those whispering in his ear match my own. I sure wish you had his ear, Colonel. It would be a great benefit to the United States. I don't know how he allowed himself to become surrounded by neocon warmongers whose intention is the protection of Israel and Israeli interests, but there it is. This is especially confusing when one remembers Bannon as his earliest adviser, one who was willing to call out the financial industry and its crimes and influence. Trump certainly understands the financial and political power of organized Jewry in the US, and this regards both domestic but especially foreign policy in the Middle East. One can only hope that after his reelection he turns on these manipulators a la Stalin. This is their biggest fear, because Trump certainly is a maverick. I love how you say that he suffers from a life in which only money matters. I would extrapolate and say that much of US culture and society, certainly all of it in the blue circles representing election outcomes in large metropolitan areas, has fallen prey to this disease, the worship of mammon. I have some hope for the traditional red areas between the cities, as they still have some religious base that helps them avoid money worship. Finally, there is one fact that Trump should take into account; the Shia who make up the growing resistance cannot be bought, and the accumulation of money and wealth is low on their list of priorities.

[elkern]

US economy is over-heated from pro-cyclical Keynesian stimulus (tax cuts + increased military spending). The Fed is shoveling money to Wall Street to keep the party going (check out "Wall Street on Parade" blog). I'm expecting a stock market crash sometime this year, but they might be able to stave it off until after the election. Either way, whoever wins in November will have a tough job.

ME: I'm still hoping for the KSA to implode/explode. I'm willing to pay more for gas to get US out of supporting the worst despots on the planet.

Glad to see Comments back on. I won't (knowingly) abuse the privilege.

[Dennis Daulton]

Perhaps Trump would be wise to heed Putin’s offer for a summit of heads of state from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. If a new security architecture for the ME could be worked out it would be a great day and give Trump all the excuse he needs to finally pull the US troops out.

[Patrick Armstrong]

Looming Canada is just my little joke

[anon]

Looks like the mike d andrea of the cia was killed in a plane crash in afghanistan.

[Sid Finster]

Trump is not a dictator. He couldn't even get a Republican controlled Congress to repeal Obamacare, for Pete's sake.

That said, look at US federal budget deficits since 2008. That's your "great Obama/Trump economy" right there (depending on whether you are a Team D cultist or a Team R devotee).