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03 January 2020

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MC

Some tankers are going to the bottom of the Hormuz Staight. It will be closed. There are many indirect ways Iran can retaliate.

Vegetius

I think Trump is a man of the 80s, and the attack on the Green Zone probably recalled slides of Carter and the hostages.


Jimmy_W

voila. Iraq tells US to leave. US leaves. End of the Iraq adventure, and near-end of the war-with-Iran dream.

Patrick Armstrong

And there's a lot of "no more Benghazi" and "Trump's tough unlike that wimp Obama" in the Twittersphere.

Morongobill

I believe our general staff better increase their security. This wasn't just some perfumed prince they killed. There will truly be "Hell to pay."

Personally I voted for Trump- I did not vote for him to possibly start a third world war.

turcopolier

Elora Danan

"if there was someone like the Col exploiting the vacuum and shock waves certain to come in the wake of this. Ah! You think I am some sort of propagandist? Well, good! little pilgrim, think what you like.

Christian J Chuba

As expected the Neocons on FOX and their regular guests are grinning ear to ear, 'Iran won't dare respond militarily because they are too weak, the only thing they can do is more of the same, nothing we can't handle'.

I think the Irnanians will want to show that they can do more than light a few dumpster fires, they will also want to avoid causing Iraq more trouble and if possible, even try to drive a wedge between between the U.S. and the Gulf states.

Possibilites, an actual terrorist attack on U.S. infrastructure to show us they could have done this anytime but never have, a missile attack on a U.S. base in Syria to show that they have some good weapons, an assassination of a U.S. officer, or maybe try to pick off a U.S. naval boat. Something that we don't actually expect.

These are all terrible, awful, horrible things to do but so is bombing a civilian airport and both a local official and a visiting official who was coming to attend funerals.

prawnik

There is no eleven dimensional chess, no master plan here.

Trump appears weak, stupid, reckless and easily manipulated because he is in fact weak, stupid, reckless and easily manipulated.

This is not difficult, and has been obvious for a long time.

prawnik

Evidence, please.

Steve

The impeachment has Trump stressed out. Just like with the Russia investigation, Trump likes to throw Israel a bone when he's under pressure.

This is a major deal. No telling where this is gonna end.

prawnik

The script for this was laid out in the War on Iraq.

Americans, Team D and Team R, will be practically masturbatory at the prospect of another war, at least until the body bags start rolling in, gas prices skyrocket and stay there, and there's no end in sight.

At about that time, Team D will insist that they could have done it so much better, but are traditionally real light on the details. See: Kerry, J.

turcopolier

All

I would think that the footage of Iraqis celebrating in the streets is footage of Sunni Arabs. They have reason to celebrate.

Leith

It was a gift to his son-in-law, to Bibi, and to his neocon donors.

Fred

The risks to Iran for the neocon dream of regime change just went sky-high. The risk to Trump that if the one thing likely to prevent his re-election - assassination - just went sky high too. Not that Iran would do that; they are the last ones to do so now. However everyone with an axe to grind against Trump has a giant incentive to pin such a thing on Iran since that would keep the inevitable societal exposion from such an act from being directed at them.

The Beaver

Keep listening to the propaganda coming from Pompeo. Suleimani was in Iraq to attend the funeral of the 39 Iraqi soldiers/policemen killed by the US strikes on December 29th.

Bill H

You have a real talent for saying so much in so few words.

Artemesia

Patrick Armstrong, the Monsey event served to seal the deal that Jews in USA shall be protected, and that what ADL labeled "hate" -- speech and antisemitism, then "hate crimes" then "domestic terrorism" shall now be dealt with on the same plane as "international terrorism."

Adam Schiff introduced legislation several months ago.
https://schiff.house.gov/news/press-releases/schiff-introduces-legislation-to-create-a-federal-domestic-terrorism-crime

Dual citizens pre-positioned their protection in the USA.
All the same, I would not want to be Jewish in the USA: indeed, a few days ago a Jewish woman called C Span to voice the (seemingly) heartfelt belief that Israelis have been treating Palestinians and Muslims throughout the region horribly.
Too little Too late?

prawnik

Trump is already impeached. That cannot be taken back.

The Senate will not vote to convict or remove from office under almost any conceivable scenario.

Trump did this because he wanted to. Whether that was because he is easily manipulated or because he is really really stupid is academic.

Just as civilians killed in drone strikes are not less dead because Obama felt sad before he ordered their deaths.

prawnik

The United States is losing in Afghanistan. Can the Taliban project power all the way to the US? Seems that they do not have to do so in order to win.

For that matter, Iran can shut down the Straits of Hormuz, which will send oil prices skyrocketing. Think that will not affect anyone?

prawnik

Exactly. Trump owns this. Not his advisers, not Bibi. Yes, Trump is stupid. Yes, he is weak. Yes, he is ill-informed. Yes, he is reckless. Yes, he is easily manipulated.

All granted.

The buck still stops at the commander in chief's desk.

prawnik

Not so simple.

The United States will not leave, even if ordered to do so. "Make us". It's the logic of a robber, but it's the only language that Empire understands.

Moreover, the US will (with the help of its Saudi masters) try to forment Sunni discontent. That basically means the return of ISIS, but with different business cards this time.

Decameron

War on Iran has been a neo-conservative priority for decades. In 1996, they wrote "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for the Realm," (led by Richard Perle & David Wurmser), long before PNAC. They do not want an Israeli war on Iran -- for them, it has to be an American action. This may be their time, after having failed several times before.

I have been a neo-conservative tracker since Perle, Wolfowitz and the boys were somewhat lowly Congressional staffers with Scoop Jackson and Daniel Patrick Moynihan. They have been in and out of power circles many times, but somehow, almost miraculously, have stuck together pushing policies that sometimes take decades.

In 1999, largely "out of power" during the Clinton Administration, they used Congressional connections to engineer a resolution in Congress (the late Stephen Solarz was a key ally) to state that regime change in Iraq was the policy of the United States. The resolution was non-binding, couldn't pass on its own, and was passed as an amendment to a spending bill. After 9/11 that resolution became the propaganda underpinning for "Overthrowing Saddam Hussein IS the policy of the United States". In 2003, they got their invasion of Iraq -- the sowing of dragon teeth.

The neo-cons have waited a long time for war against Iran. In 2004, some of them hoped the quick overthrow of Saddam Hussein would lead to regime change in Iran. It did not, they continued to maneuver. In 2006, Dick Cheney made an end-run trip to Saudi Arabia to try to get the Saudis to join in supporting the war on Iran. Cheney was exposed, the backlash was enormous -- the bombing and war against Iran didn't happen. The neo-cons never lost faith or focus. Cumulatively, thousands of books, articles, talks, think-tank blather, videos and daily TV news diatribes have made it possible to see the war on Iran come to fruition.

I don't see anyone in the Trump administration who will stand up against this act of insanity in the Soleimani assassination, and prevent an escalation.

But I believe that this Committee of Correspondence can make a difference. Many of you in the committee know the costs of war first-hand unlike the neo-cons, chicken hawks, President Trump, and his #1 West Pointer. That matters.

Serge

Eric Newhill,

"Fighting ISIS" is used as a cheap propaganda term for every side in this conflict. ISIS was the only nonattached entity in this entire conflict, fighting Iran,Russia,USA,Turkey and allies at the same time, and partisans of either side will display selective amnesia to diminish/eliminate the role of other participants and to assuage the cognitive dissonance. They can not reconcile the fact that, for example, Qassem personally fought against IS in Tikrit in early 2015 under US aircover and no doubt with SOF aid. Or again in Homs a couple years later. The fact that the US airstrike campaign in Iraq/Syria was the most effective factor in the elimination of the group will be totally ignored or mocked by Russian, Syrian, and Iranian supporters alike. For Americans the fact that the Russian campaign was instrumental in eliminating the IS lifeline along the Iraqi/Syrian border and the pacification of Anbar(something the americans failed to attain over a decade) , and further allowing the Kurds to make any real gains in the MERV will be ignored. Jordanian, Syrian, Iraqi and Turkish, Iranian soldiers were burned alive and beheaded in the same manner, IS did not discriminate amongst the murtaddin. and the Russians/USA would have burned equally too if IS had ever had the opportunity.

confusedponderer

re: ... Iraq tells US to leave. US leaves. End of the Iraq adventure, and near-end of the war-with-Iran dream

... and then likely will immedialtely congratulate himself and tweet that it was a maga super and awefully awesome extremely gigantic VICTORY of himself and in Iraq - and that it was he ending the Iraq war and not George Bush II and especially Obama who utterly butterly stutterly failed failed failed to do that.

Then he'll likely have a gallon of icecream and a dozen burgers and play some golf, in the company of a handful of fawning courtiers (including his daughter and Kushner) telling him how wonderful and successful he is, and that non-arbitrariness or rationality are a sign of weakness.

fredw

"I think the Iranians will want to show that they can do more than light a few dumpster fires."

Agreed. The record for the Iranians so far is that they may be crazy but they are not incompetent. We shouldn't expect them to jump into a war they know they can't win. But they will do something. And based on their record we can be sure of one thing: It will hurt!

Whatever they do will be done done with skill and pushed hard. The balance of force may be very much on the US side, but a US "win" will not come cheap. Anyone who thinks it will has not thought very hard.

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