Provoking a War with Russia? by Larry C Johnson

The anti-Russian insanity that dominates the politics of America is dangerous, stupid and detached from facts. Two news items from Wednesday (December 18th) should scare the hell out of you.

The first concerns Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which is nearing completion and will deliver gas to Europe. According to Reuters:

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday passed legislation to slap sanctions on companies building a massive underwater pipeline to bring Russian natural gas to Germany, but it was uncertain whether the measures would slow completion of the project. 

Senator Jim Risch, a Republican and the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the sanctions will prevent the project’s completion and are an “important tool to counter Russia’s malign influence and to protect the integrity of Europe’s energy sector.”

Nord Stream 2, led by state-owned Gazprom, would allow Russia to bypass Poland and Ukraine to deliver gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany. U.S. lawmakers say Ukraine could lose billions of dollars in transit fees if it is built.

This is not the fault of the Democrats. This is being driven by Republicans, with Senator Ted Cruz leading the charge.

The Trump administration should use sanctions to halt the construction of a pipeline that would allow Russia to transport natural gas directly to Europe, potentially generating cash to fuel President Vladimir Putin's military aggression, says Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline “would make Europe even more dependent on Russian energy," Cruz told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo on Wednesday. "And that makes Europe susceptible to economic blackmail, because Putin has already demonstrated he's perfectly willing to cut off the gas in the dead of winter to try to force people to do what he wants.”

Russia's "military aggression?" Did Russia invade Iraq twice in the last 29 years? Did Russia launch a war in Libya? Did Russia arm and train insurgents in Syria? I think Ted Cruz has not been paying attention to world events over the last thirty years. The number one country engaged in foreign military aggression is the United States. Hands down.

Here are the actual military facts about Russia:

• Russia’s 2018 GDP of $1.66 trillion, which is just 8% of America’s total GDP of $21.5 trillion.
• Russia’s annual manufacturing value added is currently about $200 billion compared to $2.2 trillion for the US economy.
• Russia’s working age population of about 85 million is already just a fraction of the US working age population of 255 million.
• Russia’s $61 billion of military outlays in 2018 amounted to less than 32 days of Washington’s current $750 billion of expenditures for defense.
• During the Cold War Russia armed itself to the teeth via a forced-draft and allocated upwards of 40% of the GDP of the Soviet empire to the military. Today the Russian defense budget amounts to less than 4% of the country’s anemic economy.
• The US has eleven such carrier strike groups. Russia has zero modern carrier strike groups and one beat-up, smoky old (diesel) aircraft carrier. A carrier based strike group is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, at least one cruiser, a squadron of destroyers and/or frigates, and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. 
• The United States dwarfs Russia’s ability to project force via air power-- the US has 6,100 helicopters to Russia’s 1,200 and 6,000 fixed wing fighter and attack aircraft versus Russia’s 2,100. More importantly, the US has 5,700 transport and airlift aircraft compared to just 1,100 for Russia.
• The only military category where Russia enjoys a decisive edge is tanks—22,710 versus 8750 for the United States. This is a legacy of WW II, where Russian tanks played the critical role in pushing the Nazis back to Germany.
• As recently as 2017, the Russian fleet operated 61 submarines. “Historically the backbone of the Russian navy, 75 percent of the 61 operational submarines are over 20 years old and are slowly being replaced." The United States has 75 and is building two new ones each year at a cost of $5 billion.

So why is this pipeline now a redline in the sand that Russia dare not cross? Apparently because it will give Russia a way to make more money to finance its massive military buildup (hopefully you understand sarcasm) and, more importantly, will cost Ukraine lost income. Can't afford to have Ukrainian oligarchs running out of money that they are sending to Democrat and Republican consulting firms and candidates. 

While it is unlikely that the sanctions will prevent the pipeline from being completed, largely because they come too little, too late, this is not going to hinder efforts to punish Russia:

A new Bloomberg headline reads “U.S. Concedes Defeat on Gas Pipeline It Sees as Russian Threat” just following new sanctions included in the House and Senate passed 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) this week.

But two administration officials tell Bloomberg it's too little too late, despite Trump's heightened rhetoric of calling Germany “a captive to Russia” and charging Berlin with essentially giving “billions” of dollars to Russia:

Senior U.S. administration officials, who asked not to be identified discussing the administration’s take on the project, said sanctions that passed Congress on Tuesday as part of a defense bill are too late to have any effect. The U.S. instead will try to impose costs on other Russian energy projects, one of the officials added.

Seriously, that United States has no right to threaten Russia in this way. It is reminiscent of the sanctions that the United States imposed on Japan prior to World War II that blocked Japan's access to critical oil and rubber supplies. That was a precipitating factor in Japan's decision to attack us on December 7, 1941.

If you think I am just being chicken little, I suspect you did not read the recent comment of Deputy Chief of General Staff of Russia, Valery Gerasimov:

NATO exercises near the border with Russia reflect the alliance’s preparations for a large-scale military conflict, Russia’s chief military officer said in remarks published Wednesday.

The chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, said at Tuesday’s meeting with foreign military attaches that NATO’s activities have heightened tensions and reduced security along the Russian border.

Asked if the Russian military sees a potential threat of war, Gerasimov said that Moscow doesn’t see “any preconditions for a large-scale war.”

He added, however, that Western pressure on Russia could trigger “crisis situations” that may spin out of control and provoke a military conflict.

The anti-Russia hysteria in the United States is tying the hands of Donald Trump to act responsibly to protect America. If he vetoes the bill put forward by the Congress he will be accused, as he has been for more than two years, of catering to Putin. 

The fanatics and frauds waving the Russian threat ignore the fact that the United States and Russia work closely and productively on the Space Station. Our astronauts and their cosmonauts co-exist peacefully in space and we rely on the Russians to haul our folks to and from the Space Station. In Syria, the Combined Air Operations Center (i.e., CAOC) communicates daily with Russian counterparts to ensure that their respective air assets do not fire on each other or inadvertently wander into a combat space. This has been going on for more than three years.

Russia still has nuclear weapons. It is their ultimate deterrent against another invasion. The memory of losing more than 12 million soldiers in World War II remains vivid and painful. The U.S. public can barely remember that we lost less than 500,000 soldiers, marines and sailors in World War II. Our inability to remember coupled with unjustified belligerence is pushing us towards a war with Russia that would be beyond catastrophic.

Comments

[scott s.]

I don't suppose Texas being the major US LNG exporter has anything to do with Cruz's opposition to a Russian pipeline?

[Lyttennburgh]

>"Michael Kofman seems to be reading my books".

That would charitably imply that he reads ANY books at all ;)

After all, this THEMichael Kofman, who'd been Nostradamizing through 2015 that:

1) Russia won't get involved in Syria. "Russia suck in Ukraine" (c) anyway ;

https://warontherocks.com/2015/08/is-russias-power-to-annoy-changing-the-game/

2) Oh... it's already here? In that case all of its planes won't last even couple of months there! "The narrative of Russia being stuck in Ukraine is also breaking down" (c)

https://warontherocks.com/2015/10/the-russian-intervention-in-syria-policy-options-and-exit-strategies/

In a year, he got through the rest of "5 Stages of Grief". Now Koffman is very, very respectable "Russia hand" and gets invited into... places.

[confusedponderer]

scott s.
re I don't suppose Texas being the major US LNG exporter has anything to do with Cruz's opposition to a Russian pipeline?

You're so suspicious (and likely correct) but don't read too much into that.

Likely Cruz would happily take ... campaign contributions ... from oil people in DC, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Florida, Utah, Arizona or California too. I don't think in these cases he is picky as long as there is enough bling.

In my area such people like to showdrive their Mercedes, BWM, Ferrari, Maserati or Humvees with golden weels, flat tires (especially sensible with a Humvee), big sunglasses, a few ounces of gelee in the hair and a pound of gold on the chest. Kings of the road on the road!

And then, while Cruz officially is a politician, there are classic professions with a long tradition where people are ready to be rented for services of many kinds. And some people just have two jobs.

As for the Northstream 1 and 2 pipelines - the only folks crazy about that are ...

#1#
The Poles and Ukies, mostly because the pipeline would deny them the possibility to hassle and more or less blackmail Germany and/or the EU and/or Russia not to mention the money for gas transiting their countries and ...

#2#
Trump and his Trumpists who likely want to urgently sell more expensive and thus economically unattractive US frack gas to Europe, and for that purpose tells a lot of nonsense of "Germany slaving itself to Russia" by buying their gas eagerly repeated by here rather unpopular Grenell, the so called "ambassador who only says what the whitehouse says" (well, we can read Trump's tweets solo too).

And then inevitably with a one trick pony comes the penal tax and sanction blackmailing game by arbitrary tweets, a formulation Trump fiercely doesn't accept because it has way too many syllables.

I don't buy oil or gas to make Putin, murder prince MBS or Trump happy. I for my part just really like it to be warm in my place in the winter. If the oil or gas for that comes from the north sea or Russia I don't really care. As for the Gulfies or imposed frack oil I do care.

[ISL]

one thing has changed, nukes - of which, none that you mention, had, and which our Dr. Strangelovian-congress forgets.

[Diana C]

I have often thought that this abhorrence of anything Russia related comes from people younger than my generation--many of them now working in government.

They must have heard too many stories from their elders about duck and cover drills and bomb shelters in the back yard. And who can forget the ticking clock?

I, too, heard horrible stories about "Bolsheviks" from my grandparents' generation who fled from Russia as the Communists were taking over, but I did get a good education in the American system before the NEA took it over. I know that Russia is different now, and we should realize that things change all the time.

I also know that many Americans are so complacent in their safe and secure lifestyles that they simply are stupid about national and international news. I have one close relative who brags about not following the news because she thinks it's unnecessary and thinks everything doesn't matter unless it affects her immediately and personally. The problem is that she doesn't realize that often it does affect her life, but in such a way that she is not immediately aware of it.

Does Ted Cruz simply not want us to have any competition in regard to our own sales of gas?

[JoeKowalski98]

"Russia’s 2018 GDP of $1.66 trillion, which is just 8% of America’s total GDP of $21.5 trillion."

The correct methodology for comparing economies is by the Purchasing Power Parity system. The IMF reports on this basis. For 2018, China was first with 18.7% of global GDP. U.S. second with 15.2%. Third, India with 7.69%. Fourth, Japan with 4.16%. Fifth, Germany with 3.24%. Sixth, Russia with 3.09%.

Simple arithmetic tells us that Russia's economy is 20% of the U.S.

[J]

The Hidden Military Use of 5G Technology

https://www.globalresearch.ca/hidden-military-use-5g-technology/5697848

[J]

My question regarding 5G technology. While it is frying the troops that use it (US & NATO) on the ground [infantry and artillery, spec ops, C&C], what are its odds as survivable communications in an EMP environment?

5G uses the band ranges that your microwave uses [with a little tweak].

5G bandwidths and TSA body scanners go hand in hand. Those TSA personnel who are in constant contact with the body scanners are coming up with cancers that they wouldn't have had otherwise.

So while 5G is endangering those on the ground who will use it in a battlefield environment, my question is what good is it for?

While mom an pop America and the world at large use it to fry their innards, the Rough Men who stand guard, sadly won't be doing much better [except those in EMP shielded Van's and Aircrafts].

[Robin Rusch]

So this is a hit list to trash Pres. Trump. It amazes me how people think they can come on these venues, to trash Americans, and thing you won't be held accountable. Everyone has opinions... I can say this, I haven't heard any real facts on this page. Your self aggrandizing is sickening. I am a big Gurl, you don't need to tell me what is going on, and don't assume Americans fall into your diatribe. Shame on you. How about some real dialogue instead of a hit list. oh yeh, and I use my own name on here. Robin Rusch

[Turcopolier]

Rusch

This is directed at Larry Johnson? You don't sound like an American. You are a big gun? What the hell does that mean? Your comment is a threat against the freedom of speech and expression that we still have in the US. I don't like threats and if you do it again I will deal with you as i have with others who made such threats.

[J]

Larry, Colonel,

Phil Giraldi made some good points in his latest article regarding the stupidity of the Administration and the Congress in their end-of-year stupid session sweepstakes. Particularly in regards to the authorization for Kiev in the NDAA that gives them additional funds for lethal assistance push-back against Russia in the Black Sea which will provoke the Russian Bear even more.

I don't which is worse, the additional lethal assistance funding, or the push to get Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO. I agree with Phil that their inclusion in NATO, Russia will regard as an existential threat.

Do I need to hire contractors to build me a bomb shelter on my little piece of heaven here on the prarie, especially the way it's heading with the White House and Congress going stupid regarding Russia? Frankly, I don't think a contractor can did me a fox-hole deep enough, unless he's planning on digging me a fox-hole half-way to China.

[vig]

confusedponder, it no doubt would be interesting to see how the ICC, the International Court of Arbitration would deal with matters. Are there experts in the field already speculating one way or the other?

Seems the Swiss building experts decided to surrender. Would take to long ...? They wouldn't be able to get an ICC decision?

Other then, who really would want to face a well funded US State?
But yes, it gets pretty curious as far as US continunity is concerned.

*******
Otherwise beyond the ones building, how does the law target dilivery, sale longterm? And how gains? Or who gains, considering US law. Law wise.

Did you look it up?

[vig]

I don't [know] which is worse, the additional lethal assistance funding, or the push to get Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO.

As European I start to wonder to what extend the US has been involved in the larger EU/NATO enlargement process. More arbitrarily: To what extend can presidential, vice-presidential, secretary of state travels tell us what our US state competitor as interested party is up to? Old vs New Europe?

Concerning the US or its present empeachment affair. Admittedly from a rather superficial perspective to pick up on 'don't know which is worse'

I don't know which is the worse in basing an empeachment on: non-dilivery of weapons or on possible Biden corruption. ...

Good luck, but it doesn't feel you have to prepare for a better version of "duck and cover". Not yet. ...

[J]

Stephen Cohen is right on point when he says that the last thing Putin wants is a Cold War with the west. Putin wants stable good relations with the west. Putin is not the big bad monster.

Cohen: How Impeachment Is Escalating The New US-Russian Cold War

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cohen-how-impeachment-escalating-new-us-russian-cold-war

[J]

Durham Investigation Puts CIA Director Gina Haspel On Notice

https://www.oann.com/durham-investigation-puts-cia-director-gina-haspel-on-notice/

"CIA Director Gina Haspel is the latest Intelligence official to reportedly be dragged into John Durham’s investigation of the Russia probe. On Friday, Politico reported Haspel may have information on former CIA Director John Brennan, who served under the Obama administration.

That information could help Durham learn whether the CIA used unauthorized surveillance on 2016 Trump campaign officials."

[Keith Harbaugh]

The Politico article about Haspel, et al., by Natasha Bertrand,
was extensively discussed, from a somewhat different perspective, by sundance:
"Dirty Spooks Concerned About Barr and Durham…", sundance, 2019-12-27

sundance has been, and still is, quite critical of the SSCI and those that who receive its approval:

At this point anyone who was or is confirmed by
a corrupt Senate Intelligence Committee
[chaired by] Chairman Richard Burr [R-NC] and Vice-Chair Mark Warner [D-VA]
should be considered dirty and compromised.
This includes both CIA Director Gina Haspel and ICIG Michael Atkinson.