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13 December 2019

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Jack

Sir

This was a stunning election result for Boris. Constituencies that have always voted Labor for more than 50 years went to the Conservatives. I speculate that it was a repudiation of those that fought the Brexit referendum results for years. I assume many voted to “get Brexit done”, which was Boris’s mantra during the campaign.

Let’s see what kind of Brexit he achieves. In any case all the fearmongers have been proven wrong as the pound strengthened as the exit polls came out. The fx markets are clearly acting bullish, which is a huge negative for the Brussels crew. I can see Merkel wanting to do a deal for the sake of German industry.

guidoamm

The geographic maps of recent Western elections, look remarkably similar across the world.

Brexit, Kurz, Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, Khan, Salvini & Di Maio as well as the rise of the AfD in Germany all evidence a strikingly similar pattern.

Urban centers are trying to hold on to the status quo for dear life.

The rest of the country that could be defined as the (usually) silent majority, has had enough.

This vote was no surprise.

We have reached one of those historical junctures that are brought about by the same old political tactics.

A centralized monetary system that is coopted for political power.

Fiscal deficits have a very well defined, if not understood, life cycle. The end of the cycle has been the same across the ages.

Many more "surprising" political outcomes to come in the following months.

Terry

It will be interesting to watch Ireland.

Will Northern Ireland and the Republic join and stay in the EU? Northern Ireland had strong pro-EU support.

Or could the prospects of a hard border improve the 44% of Irish that were pro-Irexit allowing some accommodation with the United Kingdom.

Perhaps the United Kingdom offers to support a united Ireland within a framework of Ireland rejoining the United Kingdom. Worse case is the hard border and the return of the "troubles"

Seems like an ideal situation for dealmaker Trump and his great trade deal offer to the UK.

Paco

Careful what you wish for, the Gods might grant it. Deep down inside there is a familial feeling towards your cousins similar to the Lend-Lease deal that ruined their empire, one has to fear the close ones, not the distant ones. The result might be the end of the UK and a rash of separatist movements in the rest of Europe, something that might be beneficial to you but not to us. And yes, a sign of the times, paramouring does not rime with empire, no matter how old is the beholder.

Charlie Wilson

Colonel

I know the Brits are a scorbutic lot but didn’t realize they sent out men in skirts to protect their supply.

Charlie

Factotum

Bring back a new, improved and enhanced Hanseatic League: UK, Nordics, Canada, US, Germany and Netherlands.

confusedponderer

Jack,
re Let’s see what kind of Brexit he achieves.

I don't expect much. Johnson's bold assertations that he'll "get the Brexit done" eventually, and easily, with a brexit post EU rules being "oven or whatever else ready" is simply bullshit unconvincing.

There are many many and complicated negotiations requiring an attention span longer than 2 minutes necessary for that and since Johnson replaced May about exactly none of such negotiations happened.

UK diplomats were really really busy and needed in London and Johnson really really busy watching a mirror.

There is not much left that the UK has to offer the EU what wasn't negotiated already by May, except for Johnson stepping 'outside of himself' and trying to not to be an an asshole unpleasant nuisance for a change.

One more guy who thinks feels that unpredictability and unrealiability are a strength and an advange (it is neither) ... while he hasn't discovered the penal taxxery tweet game yet ... just wait.

Dominic Raab (who stabbed May in the back by resigning) is back under Johnson and involuntary amused me by saying that only while negotiating and sort of thinking about Brexit he noticed that the channel as a border between the EU and the UK actually is sort of, say, important in the Brexittery.

Congrats! Didn't they teach that to him in the primary school or, say, Cambridge or later at Linklaters?

Ignoring the point of Johnson (whose honesty can somewhat be doubted given the fact that as a journalist he was fired three times for lying, eh, freely inventing articles) then there is Dominic Cummings, his so called "master mind".

Cummings once said that Brexit to him is the crowbar to finally wreck Westminster and who uses 'reign of terror' to get critics kicked out of the party, removed (at times illegally, in terms of administrative employment law from gvt jobs - the idea being apparently to ... express 'I can get you!') or to obey Johnson.

It wouldn't surprise me if these types end up quiet with a yellow hammer in their head (or, say, body crest).

I can see Merkel wanting to do a deal for the sake of German industry.

She would be insane if she didn't want to do a deal for German industry since North Rhine-Westphalia, the state I live in, is iirc for the UK's one of the three or seven largest "import from, collaborate with and export to" entities in the world (iirc before China) that the UK does business with.

It is already so that people from the UK applying for a job in the EU are being rejected since Johnson's/Farage's/Cumming's/Rees-Mogg's etc pp Brexitery is seen having very practical risks - mobility, reliability, availability - will the brits be able to travel without having to plan for a travel a month in advance or being flewn in by the RAF?

Johnson is on his ego tour en passant wrecking UK economy IMO.

Example #1 "Big Money":
Airbus wings are built by iirc BAe. After the "Brexit Or Die-ry" there would be some 25% tax on these wings so that Airbus aircraft would get more expensive (or the profit lower). Neither is acceptable or likely to be accepted.

It would take for Airbus just as long time to say bye bye as it takes to build a new factory and train the new employees elsewhere, probably preferrably with EU benefits and subsidies. That'll also mean a lot of highly skilled brits out of job, factories closed and areas economically harmed. Less taxes would come in too.

Example #2 "Small Money":
Brexit also will have consequences for the ... meals in the UK. Take Cheddar - most of the Holy British National Tradition cheddar eaten in the UK iirc comes from ... Ireland, which, for me fortunately, is in the EU. Add the 25% taxes then Brexit will also mean more expensive basic cheese.

Obviously, Ireland will adjust to that by changing their export areas. Bad for the brits, but I'll be able to buy cheddar 25% cheaper than a brit in the UK.

etc. pp.

Johnson's "MAGBGA" (MAke Great Britain Great Again" may end up ... making the UK in fact smaller.

What about a theoretical potential irish unification? On easter I saw IRA folks demonstrating in Dublin with all green Ireland flags. Will the troubles be revived by Johnson's ... incomparable skill and charm?

The welsh farmers will certainly miss the unreplaced EU subsidies (which even Cummings happily took - good enough for him but too good for the rest of the UK).

And the SNP currently want a somewhat late new 'Independence/ Anti-Brexit/ Let's Stay In The EU' referendum. That was already and almost naturally immediately opposed by Johnson. Enjoy the likely continuation in court.

It has to be expected that Johnson will let the dogs - Cummings, Farage and perhaps Bannon - loose in Scotland and on Scots. In the meanwhile, banks are running away from Edinburgh to places like Frankfurt, Berlin or Paris.

Brexit will be ugly for and in the UK. One can read the already published Yellowhammer document PDF if keen on vomiting.

English Outsider


Massive win, Colonel, that as far as I know nobody predicted. Not the polls, not the political blogs. But I didn't follow it that closely so that's just a general impression.

My man, Nigel Farage, got squeezed mercilessly. I was looking around the BBC site to find out how mercilessly when I came across a picture of the bete noir of my father's time, Harold Wilson. Wilson was convinced that MI something was out to get him - bugged his office, spread smear stories about him around the press, even a possible coup.

The odd rumour of all this had spread to my corner of the English provinces and I'd always wondered if there was anything in it. So I clicked on the BBC article -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-49939123

- and came across this -

" .. A 1987 inquiry concluded the allegations of a security service plot against Wilson were untrue. However, an inquiry by cabinet secretary Lord Hunt in 1996 concluded that "a few, a very few, malcontents in MI5" had "spread damaging malicious stories".

Well, if a cabinet secretary says that it must be true. MI5, not MI6 - I think MI5's the heavy mob - but I just wondered if our spooks had passed these tricks on to the lads who put the Steele dossier about.

On another security matter I note with concern above - "Those are Jacobite tribesmen at the top. Some of my ancestors were such as they." I thought so. '15 and '45 caused us a lot of trouble and just in case the tradition remained in your family I'm opening a file. We're very happy with our present Queen, thank you, and we don't want you replacing her with some Stuart relic you might happen to have dug up.

Though I suppose it would only be poetic justice. We've just had a go at toppling your President so why shouldn't you return the compliment and topple Her Majesty.

turcopolier

EO

Is there a Stuart pretender? My Scots ancestors left the west highlands in the last decade of the 17th Century . they did not want to take oath of allegiance to King William and they were a sept of Macdonald of Glencoe. with other Catholic Scots families they went to Meath where they lived a hundred+ years, not intermarrying with the Green Irish. In 1828 they went to America with the same group of familie. Stubborn.

turcopolier

Charlie Wilson
"The ladies from hell..."

turcopolier

EO

Maybe this fellow - "Jacobo Hernando Fitz-James Stuart, 16th Duke of Peñaranda de Duero"

JJackson

I voted Corbyn but to no avail. He, like Tulsi Gabbard in the States, was the only ones who seem willing to take on the Borg and advocate a reassessment of our relationship with the US/KSA/Israeli bloc and with the currently persona non grata Shias. I also voted remain which ruled out the Tories (even if I could have considered them - no chance).

Diana C

My late sister-in-law was a Stuart. She liked to tout her lineage from the Stuart royalty. She smoked herself to death. Her son is a nice, hard-working young man. However, having been raised by my brother, he is more likely to be an adherent of "the Squad of AOC."

Jack

Your arguments are exactly what the Remainers have used, yet Boris’s landslide victory shows the British people have rejected this fearmongering. The fx markets also don’t seem to be buying your arguments. In fact the minority view that a hard Brexit would benefit Britain more could be proven more accurate. Britain could have the flexibility to become significantly more competitive than the heavily bureaucratic EU just by lowering taxes substantially.

German industry is already weakening with industrial production down for over a year and continuing its downward slope. Britain imports more from Germany than it exports especially from the German auto industry which is already on the ropes. And now the Chinese threatening to stop buying a million German cars unless their Huawei spy gear is allowed in German 5G networks. What do you think a politically weak Merkel is gonna do? Boris clearly has the upper hand as he now has the majority to do a hard Brexit.

The problem for Brussels is that if Britain starts to do well because it becomes more competitive other countries with large eurosceptic movements will get emboldened.

Terry

Plus Russia and Greenland? The Arctic League.

confusedponderer

Terry,
re Seems like an ideal situation for dealmaker Trump and his great trade deal offer to the UK.

I have my doubts about Trump being the Grand Dealmaker he calls himself.

Looking at seven bankruptcies as a proof of that ... mythical skill I don't find much.

Trump's "great trade deal" offer will be what Johnson gets. What that is depends on what he has to offer, which isn't much.

I recall Trump suing the Deutsche Bank after the bank wanted a credit back. His lawyers in court referred to the bank crisis, called the Deutsche Bank as a bank responsible for that and said that thus they don't deserve repayment.

Impertinent, brazen, ridiculous and jackass dumb. For very obvious reasons Trump lost that case and did pay back. The point is: You get a reputation for trying stunts like that and likely also places in an asylum.

When Trunmp recently went on searching lawyers to work and sue for him he didn't find any. A big corp lawyer anonymously briefly explained why: "Doesn't pay. Doesn't listen.'

It's not that lawyers are exactly ... picky ... with clients - even Charles Manson or Harvey Weinstein found a lawyer.

The youthful (just 82 years old) Wilbur Ross, moniker "King of Bankruptcy" (which may explain Trump choosing him) said that Brexit is ... awesome ... and offers plenty opportunity (to get UK companies cheaply).

Boeing has some recent quality problems with the 737 MAX. They'll probably just love to buy BAe cheaply.

And if, whatever Johnson says or denies about that, the NHS in the UK is for offer or to be privatised ... wait for US companies taking the "low invest high profit" approach.

Being sick is to become much more expensive in Great Britain anyway. The UK needs to import a lot of medication, in the hard way Brexit with the 25% WHO tarrif "bonus". That would be Example #1b "Big Money".

Naturally the Grand Dealmaker presumably has a most simple solution for that - destroy the WHO by not paying US bills (as the US does right now) or quit the treaty right away - and then go play some more golf.

English Outsider


Oh dear. We're not falling for that one. "Is there a Stuart pretender" indeed!

I've been reading your site long enough, Colonel, to know a little about maskirovka. That innocent enquiry conceals the fact that you've fetched him over from Bavaria and have him holed up in Virginia waiting for the moment. Probably when it's time for Prince Charles to take over. It shall be so entered on the file.

We shall fight, you know. Charlie may be the Green Prince but he's our Green Prince. We haven't escaped Angie's clutches merely to be subject to some BMW driving Bavarian. Give me Saxe-Coburg or give me death!

turcopolier

EO

The fellow I mentioned is rumored to be running a Portugee restaurant in Fall Rivver, Massacghusetts, one of Emeril's cousin. reminds me of the old novel "Pepin" in which the French are forced to find the Merovingian pretender somewhere out in Burgundy.

turcopolier

confusedponderer

In the US business bankruptcies for re-organization are merely a tactic.

English Outsider

After a shaky start they did pretty well here -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_New_York_Volunteer_Infantry

They do pretty well everywhere. Tough lot.

English Outsider


Well, I do like the sound of that one, Colonel. Running a restaurant is a rough tough business so he'll do. He can stiffen Johnson's spine, Johnson already showing a tendency to crumble whenever Brussels says "Boo!"

Perhaps we could take him on approval. If he fails to find a spine to stiffen we can send him back.

Terry

Yes, my sarc was too light and should have included the /sarc tag. :-)

Terry

And now I've this whole science fiction plot in my head ... A greening north, the Arctic League and a war with the global south.

English Outsider


I feel your pain. Know all about it, in fact - the Outsider family is pretty well all remainers except me, so I got the job of advising them which way to vote to further their evil intent.

I did my best for them. Envied them rather. They wanted to vote remain and were able to do so. I wanted to vote leave but had no one to vote for, the Conservatives, as you know, probably only giving us a PR Brexit.

I was really keen on Corbyn once, for the same reasons as you. A rampant prog, of course, and an absolute dud on the economy, but with a rooted aversion to bombing foreigners that's rare at Westminster.

My Brexit guru, Richard North, says Johnson didn't win the election. Corbyn lost it. Serve him right. Three years sitting on the fence was three years too long.

vig

The same everywhere I would guess. An elegent way to avoid paying your debth or as little as possible.

It can be and is used quite creatively by a lot of economic fund re-organizers, no doubt.

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