Rojava is dead. Long live the Syrian Arab Republic. The new Russia-Turkish agreement goes a long way in reestablishing Syria’s territorial integrity and foiling Erdogan’s dream of a new Ottoman Empire. It also provides the Rojava Kurds their best hope for a future whether they realize it or not. First, here’s the agreement.
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President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of The Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin agreed on the following points:
1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.
2. They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.
3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.
4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.
5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km, except Qamishli city.
6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.
7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements.
8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.
9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.
10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.
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Why do I think this is such a good deal for Syria and the Rojava Kurds? The key is in the first two points of the agreement. The current northern border is preserved. That is a huge win for Damascus. Turkey will be sending a substantial number of Syrian refugees back south of the border to areas not now populated by Kurds. This is a major plus for Erdogan. He can claim this as a victory and save face. Both sides agree to fight terrorists. Turkey won’t fight the jihadis, but the Russians in the joint patrols sure will. And the SAA won’t let them sleep either. The jihadis will not be able to prey on the Kurds living near the border.
The YPG/SDF will be away from the border which also can be claimed as a Turkish victory. However, remember that the SAA-SDF agreement of last week calls for incorporating the YPG/SDF into the SAA 5th Assault Corps. Armed Kurds will still be among the Kurds looking out for Kurdish interests under the auspices of the SAA. That’s where the Kurds win. The SAA and Russian patrols will be be no kinder to jihadis in Rojava than they are to the Idlib jihadis.
Speaking of Idlib, it appears the offensive to reduce that jihadi salient is about to kick off. SAA units are massed in northern Latakia where Syrian and Russian air assets have been pounding the living crap out of the jihadis. President Assad visited his front line troops today. I would say things are about to get real in northern Latakia and Idlib.
TTG
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-idlib-offensive-to-begin-at-any-moment/
No, they won't show common sense.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 23 October 2019 at 08:55 PM
That is my own thinking too.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 23 October 2019 at 08:56 PM
"And That is the rest of the story".
Posted by: jd hawkins | 24 October 2019 at 06:42 AM
DC,
Carter was a disaster in foreign affairs and a domestically. His pardoning of the draft dodgers was not a virtue signal like most of the left's current anti-war stance.
Posted by: Fred | 24 October 2019 at 07:56 AM
Fred, Here's my best greenhorn speculation to rebut the seemingly endless
Blood for Oil battle cry/siren song: The New Silk Road & Belt. If implemented properly there would be no need to kill each other over oil & gas...when this thing really gets going ppl like DJT will turn their focus
back to building hotels. That's just how developers think.
Posted by: elaine | 24 October 2019 at 05:09 PM
Carter did not start a new war.
His Camp David Accords offered the United States the opportunity to terminate the Arab-Israeli Wars, that Reagan, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, and Trump have rubber-stamped insensible Israeli escalation does not make his achievement worthless.
He did not muzzle NPR - those who followed him into US Presidency gutted independent journalism at NPR.
His successors, gradually eliminated scholarships - really investments in education - escalated against Iran and Russia to the strategic Never-Never Land, and sold US jobs to China and Mexico and India.
Carter's achievements were modest, I grant you that, but he did no harm.
His biggest mistake, in my view, was that initiated the process of state destruction in Afghanistan, but he had fellow travelers there: Iran, China, EU states, and Gulfies. On this, no one has escaped unscathed from the Blow-back in that unfortunate land.
You live in Michigan - only 4 Michigan counties have illegitimacy rates of less than 25%. Who is responsible for that? Carter?
Posted by: BABAK MAKKINEJAD | 24 October 2019 at 05:15 PM
TTG,
What's a person to think regarding the Wall Street Journal article about the Administration is considering leaving troops and battle tanks in Northern Syria.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-weighs-leaving-more-troops-sending-battle-tanks-to-syria-11571958019?
Posted by: J | 24 October 2019 at 09:57 PM
J, it leaves me wondering just who the hell is the Commander in Chief in this country. Hanging the Kurds out to dry the way we did was bad enough, but at least it was in line with an overall goal of extracting ourselves from the region. Adding combat troops to protect the oilfields is pure lunacy. If you want to see what a coup looks like, here it is. CENTCOM is complicit in this fiasco.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 24 October 2019 at 10:20 PM
TTG Yes. What is the plural of "coup?" Ah, yes it is "coups."
Posted by: turcopolier | 24 October 2019 at 11:19 PM
Babak;
The SDF in control of those oilfields has been and continues to be a supplier of crude oil to Assad's government. They've been doing this via a third party broker or brokers for over a year. The broker transports it by tanker-truck to refineries in Baniyas and Homs. The US has not stopped them from doing that. I suspect Trump is just blowing smoke in the media's face.
But he is clearly trying to screw up the SDF/SAG deal with his latest tweets.
Posted by: Leith | 24 October 2019 at 11:58 PM
If you are correct, and I hope you are not, but if you are . . . then its Darwin Award City here we come! for the Syrian Kurds.
Posted by: different clue | 25 October 2019 at 01:19 AM
Babak,
He did a great deal of harm by coddling the anti-American left. The Arab-israeli wars can never be ended by the US. Afghanistan as an effective state existed before Carter? I think not.
Scholarships? The never ending growth of academic bureaucracy, price gouging and degradation of quality go hand in hand with federal monies given without obligation or oversight. As an example, how many genders were there when you earned all those degrees? How many do you think the Obama's taught their children? Don't ask that of the local college professors, university presidents or school principals or Democratic elected officials anywhere. As to illegitimacy rates, what race and religion are you referring to, or is that to offensive to ask? Replacing fathers with the state started in earnest with LBJ's Great Society programs. They have destroyed the black family in the North and are doing the same elsewhere.
Posted by: Fred | 25 October 2019 at 02:32 AM
You responded in generalities while I was very specific.
Posted by: BABAK MAKKINEJAD | 25 October 2019 at 10:38 AM
That award has to be shared across 4 countries.
Posted by: BABAK MAKKINEJAD | 25 October 2019 at 10:39 AM
Babak,
Yes, 4 unnamed counties, the others you don't mention nor answer with the illegitimacy rate by race or religion, very specific that non-generality. Scholarships eliminated? You don't mention which specific ones, maybe I missed that too.
Posted by: Fred | 25 October 2019 at 12:24 PM
For the last 3 years I have been arguing with a friend about whether Trump is an idiot-vassal-of-the-neocons, or if "he is playing 3D chess". When Trump announced that the US was pulling out of Syria I texted my friend "You were right. Trump is smart and he has coordinated this with Putin.".
Then the announcement came out that US troops are staying in Syria to "protect the oil fields". Sigh.
In Trumps defense - he is currently facing impeachment, and R+6 have their work cut out for them securing Idlib and Rojava. If Trump really is coordinating with Putin to thwart the Borg, letting CENTCOM have the oil fields while R+6 consolidate their recent gains could make tactical sense. I wonder if even Bibi knows whose side Trump is on.
Posted by: JamesT | 25 October 2019 at 02:37 PM
TTG, Trump has said troops are being moved to other places and then coming home (though nothing said on what they will be doing in other places before they come home).
Secretary of defence has said a mechanized force will be moved in to protect the oilfields.
I take it green berets (from past pieces and comments here I take it the forces in Syria were GB's) being pulled out of Syria and mechanised forces moved in means the mission in Syria has changed somewhat.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | 25 October 2019 at 07:13 PM
Peter AU 1, US troops started with 50 Special Forces in early 2016 followed later that year by 250 more. Conventional troops came in March 2017 with 400 jarheads with a battery of artillery to help the SDF take Raqqa. Some time after that additional conventional forces came in, including at least a Ranger company, to provide a deterrent against Turkish attacks in Manbij and elsewhere. By the end of 2017, the number krept up to 2,000Throughout this time there were many airstrikes. The airstrikes actually started at the seige of Kobani. SOF raids also took place through this time. The makeup of the US forces changed over time. These mechanized forces are just another change in the makeup. I have no idea how many SF remain with the YPG/SDF.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 25 October 2019 at 08:42 PM
Google for the counties.
"The Left", "The Right", almost laughable when one asks: which of the two presided over the largest wealth transfer in human history?"
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 25 October 2019 at 09:32 PM
TTG, do you have any insight on this former Green Beret medic, Dave Eubank, who formed the Free Burma Rangers, and now has a medical detachment in Syria helping to evacuate SDF wounded by Turks and TFSA jihadis?
https://twitter.com/DaveEubankFBR/status/1188113080208650241
Posted by: Leith | 26 October 2019 at 12:55 PM
This is from Sputnik, claiming the opposite
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910261077154752-russian-military-releases-satellite-images-confirming-us-smuggling-of-syrian-oil/
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 26 October 2019 at 10:43 PM