Killing Baghdadi - TTG

The first indications that something unusual was going on in Idlib was a series of tweets from @WithinSyriaBlog late last night. I saw this before I saw Trump’s tweet of “Something very big has just happened!”

————

@WithinSyriaBlog

Breaking: Several attack helicopters coming from Turkey reportedly attacked several Jihadists' targets in southern Idlib.

2:41 PM - 26 Oct 2019
At first locals said that the helicopters were only flying, later several sources confirmed that they carried out attacks. Some said they responded to AA fire. However, this was also denied by locals.
Locals are saying that the helicopters are of the Turkish military. However, there is a good chance the alleged attack was carried out by US-led coalition helicopters.
Now locals are saying that the helicopters were chasing a convoy of cars, claiming at least two actually landed ... Sounds like a well-planned raid.

@WithinSyriaBlog

Summary of what is going on west the town of Barisha in northern Idlib, this thread will be updated:

2:58 PM - 26 Oct 2019
1- Eight helicopters came from the direction of Turkish border, began conducting strikes on targets west of the town of Barisha. Warplanes and UAVs are covering the helicopters.
2-Local sources denied that the helicopters carried out the strikes in response to AA fire. The attack was apparently planned, well planned.
3-At least two of the eight helicopters landed west of Barisha. However, it is unclear if a some special operation is being carried out there now.
4-Additional 4 helicopters joined the force around 15 min into the attack. At least 12 helicopters are now operating west of Barisha.
5-Local sources are talking about an operation to capture or kill a senior Jihadi figure. Unconfirmed reports says that at least one TIP militants has been killed, so far.

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This morning President Trump addressed the nation and announced the killing of Abu Bakr al—Baghdadi by US Special Operations Forces. I’m sure most of us either watched this or heard of it by now. More details will surely come out over the next few days. Hopefully not a lot more. Here’s a few details that I find interesting.

1 - A Squadron, SFOD Delta was the primary assault force. A Delta squadron consists of two assault troops and one reconnaissance troop. This may sound like a lot but in my experience a special operations squadron often consists of less than fifty troops. The operation was probably supported by some number of Rangers. That’s a common method of operation. 

2 - Photos of 30mm HEDP shells from the raid area are now online. That indicates MH-60L helicopters from the 160th Special Operations Wing were providing support with their M230 chain guns.

3 - Time line for the operation was givens as one hour, ten minutes in, two hours on the ground and one hour, ten minutes out. They could have flown from Incirlik Air Force Base, but I think they flew from the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Battle Group in the Mediterranean. It would have been more secure and would account for more “nap-of-the-earth” flying time across the hills and mountains of Hatay Province.

4 - Barisha is located in Idlib Governorate north of Idlib and west of Aleppo very close to the the major crossing point into Turkey. What was Baghdadi doing there? Barisha is the headquarters of Huras Din. Huras Din was created last February, mainly from senior Non-Syrian members of Hayet Tahrir Sham, HTS (created from Al-Qaida in 2016). It was HTS that provided security for Turkey while setting up its twelve observation posts. This area is critical to both Turkey’s and the jihadi’s goal of retaining control of Idlib. Again, what was Baghdadi doing there?

5 - Vice President Pence said this morning that we had intelligence of Baghdadi’s location earlier last week and more a specific location only Saturday morning.   Did Turkey provide this information? I doubt it. Russia and the SAA have been running reconnaissance and spying missions throughout Idlib for quite a while. Between those missions and R+6 SIGINT, I think Russia provided critical information to USI in the lead up to this raid. The coordination between the US and Russia was probably a lot more that just informing them that we were coming in as Trump said in his address this morning.

This is a good day for America, a good day for President Trump and a good day for the R+6. I also think it's a bad day for the jihadis and Turkey. As I said, a lot more will come out in the coming days. Actually, a lot more is already out there. But this is enough for now. 

TTG  

Comments

[Leith]

Iraqi Intelligence claims that they were the ones that provided al-Baghdadi's location to the CIA.

https://news.yahoo.com/1-iraqi-intelligence-paved-way-112248196.html

And SDF commander Masloum Kobane (Abdi) said the Syrian Kurds have been participating for five months on a joint intel op that found al-Baghdadi.

https://www.pukmedia.com/EN/EN_Direje.aspx?Jimare=55568

[The Twisted Genius]

Leith, I have no doubt Iraqi Intelligence and the Syrian Kurds have both been looking for Baghdadi. They both wanted Baghdadi's ass... separated from his head. I know the Kurds have been looking for him since he fled the area around Deir Ezzor.

[Lurker]

https://tass.com/defense/1085522
"Russian defense ministry says has no proof of Islamic State leader’s extermination"

[The Beaver]

TTG

Check this Twitter account as far as how his trail was followed:

https://twitter.com/ImaraWaTijara/status/1188462068057411584

The story going around:
INIS managed to capture a relative of Al-Baghdadi, who cracked during interrogation and gave up high-value documents/belongings of Baghdadi’s in western Anbar and helped INIS to pick up his trail (to Barisha) and pass it onto the CIA.

[The Beaver]

Tonight ( in Syria):
Abu Al-Hassan Al-Muhajir, the Daesch spox & Abu Bakr’s deputy has been killed in the town of ‘Ayn Al-Baydha near Jarabulus in northern Syria.

[Leith]

Interesting that Barisha is just a few kilometers from the Turkish border - and in Turkish controlled Idlib. Seems to me that Turkish MIT has been hiding al-Baghdadi as LJ said. Did they finally consent to give him up?

I tend to believe that the Iraqis passed some leads. But my two cents is that the Syrian Kurds were the ones that pinpointed him. There are former Kurdish villages in NW Idlib, probably Arabized Kurds still live in that area hiding their ethnicity. Some of those villages are within a few kilometers of Barisha: Qalb Lawzah (Qalb Loze), Qurqanya, & Kafr Uruq.

http://umap.openstreetmap.fr/nl/map/ethnic-kurdish-villages-of-idlib-governorate-syria_75921#12/36.1570/36.7029

[Peter AU 1]

"What was Baghdadi doing there?"

Rhetoric aside, Erdogan's Turkey has always been on good terms with ISIS. On the Turkish border of Idlib under Turk protection may have looked safe. On the map, Barisha looks to be about five k's in from the Turk border.
Timing makes me think he was traded for the northeast border of Syria. US gets Baghdadi and Turkey gets the border.

[turcopolier]

PeterAU1
Ah, the terrible Turk!

[The Beaver]

If these reports are true of the oil tanker smuggling operation, then the Syrian Kurds do not have cleaned hands.

From that BBC guy who misled everyone about Raqqa:
https://twitter.com/Dalatrm/status/1188530187551547392

[Mina]

Interesting to note that the best way for an ethnic Kurd to pretend she's an Arab would be to wear the black abaya.

[Peter AU 1]

Erdogan's Islam veiw appears to be genuine. Rather than terrible Turk, Erdogan is strongly Islamic and taking Turkey from a secular state back to and Islamic state. Turkey put off as long as possible declaring AQ a terrorist organisation. AQ have no problems having the Turk bases through Idlib.
Turkey was buying oil from ISIS earlier in the piece. There was some fighting when Erdogan first moved his jihadis into Syria but large number of ISIS left Manbij once they had nutted out a deal.
Turk border in Idlib may well have been the safest place for Baghdadi to stay.

[walrus]

Who replaces Baghdadi? It will be interesting to see if there was succession planning or if ISIS now crumbles.

[scott s.]

All open source info says Lincoln BG is in the North Arabian Sea, not the Med.

[The Twisted Genius]

Scott, then it can't be the Lincoln. I don't know what else we have there. The Truman BG was headed to the region without the Truman as a surface action group. Don't know what that entails.

[The Beaver]

Walrus

Saw that on the Twitter account of a Syrian :

ISIS on today's statement by Donald Trump.

The militants' telegram channels express condolences and grief over the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announcing the appointment of Abu al-Suri as the new leader of the Islamic State group

[The Beaver]

TTG

I read that they came from Al Assad Base in Al Anbar Province, Iraq.

[The Twisted Genius]

The Beaver, I've seen that, too. I've also seen claims of launching from Kurdish territory. Eye witness accounts claim the helicopters came across the Turkish border. I think we're all guessing.

[Jack]

Thread by journalist Rukmini Callimachi on Baghdadi.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1188514608056811530.html

[Serge]

depending on how bad it is for Turkey it’s probably very good for jihadis on a short enough timescale

[The Twisted Genius]

Serge, please explain.

[JamesT]

A Canadian news channel is reporting that Turkey handed a key Baghdadi lieutenant over to Iraqi intelligence, who under interrogation gave up enough information to allow Baghdadi to be located.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6089814/baghdadi-aide-key-to-capture-iraq/

Kind of sounds to me like Erdogan and Trump made a deal.

[The Twisted Genius]

Baghdadi wasn't the jihadis' only loss today. Abu-Hassan al-Muhajir, the likely successor to Baghdadi, was blown away near Jarabulus in a US strike. Here's a couple of tweets about these events:

“So SDF and Iraq shared intel with US on position of ISIS leader Baghdadi - 3.5 miles from border with Turkey. And SDF shared intel with US on the position of ISIS spox Muhajir - just outside Turkish Euphrates Shield city of Jarablus. Doesn't look *great* for Turkey, have to say”

We believe ISIS spox. Al-Muhajir was in Jarablus to facilitate Baghdadi’s entry to Euphrates Shield area. The two US-led operations have effectively disabled top ISIS leadership who were hiding [in] NW Syria. More still remain hiding in the same area.”

The SAA did well at Kabani... if they can keep it this time. From Al Masdar:

"Led by the 4th Armored Division, the Syrian Arab Army began their attack around 10 A.M. on Saturday, when their troops began to storm the Zuwayqat Mountain and its corresponding hills. Following a heavy battle that lasted for several hours, the Syrian Arab Army was able to take hold of the Zuwayqat Mountain, giving their forces fire control over the remaining hills south of Kabani. The Syrian Arab Army is now trying to push their way into Kabani; however, they are facing heavy resistance from the jihadist rebels of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham and the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP)."

Maybe with Baghdadi's ass now far from his head, perhaps the HTS and TIP will loose some of their enthusiasm for defending Kabani. They have been tenacious.

[Donald]

Syria related news about the alleged chemical attack on Douma last year. There is a second whistleblower coming forward saying that the evidence didn’t support the claim of an attack.

I don’t know enough to analyze this, but it is huge if true.

https://timhayward.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/major-revelation-from-opcw-whistleblower-jonathan-steele-speaking-to-the-bbc/

[Unhinged Citizen]

This is amusing.

How does one now sell the Western dim-witted audience of the heroic Syrian pro-democracy opposition valiantly holding out against the onslaught of a dictator and the modern re-incarnation of Stalin, when primary ISIS actors hide in their midst?

I've always suspected that the distinction between the Nusra Front in Western Syria and ISIS was bogus and a means to distance these two groups from one another, when their ideology and methods are shared.

[Peter AU 1]

This video Apparently originating from Anadolu Agency is interesting. It shows a site of a destroyed building, supposedly one demolished in the strike. MSM carry pics of this rubble in Baghdadi stories.
The rubble has been freshly cleared. Earthmover tyre tracks can clearly be seen shortly into the vid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Fun9W0t_o

There is a site marked on wikimapia already as the site of the raid or strike. https://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.165865&lon=36.627407&z=19&m=w

Same place on google maps satellite veiw
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@36.1658315,36.6274893,104m/data=!3m1!1e3

I would guess the video and MSM pics would be of the site that was destroyed some time before the 2019 sat pics for google maps were taken.

Turkey's media seems to be controlled to a fair extent so the are putting out state or perhaps Erdogan's views.
Pics of a building destroyed some time ago being disseminated by Turkey... nothing from Turkey on helicopters overflight for the raid yet that seems the most likely way they would come from.
Russian statements are ambiguous, in that they do not deny a raid took place.
Turkeys involvement re pics and videos of a long destroyed building, acknowledging the raid took place yet nothing on helicopters ect, plus Baghdadi's vicinity to Turkey and the timing (US draw back and Turk move into Syria) makes me think the intel most likely came from Turkey.