Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi Does Not Sleep with the Fishes by Larry C Johnson

What does a radical Islamic mother say to another radical Islamic mother? Children, they blow up so fast.

What a contrast with the raid that killed Bin Laden in May 2011. The Obama Administration came out with conflicting accounts and required the SEALS who carried out the attack to sign non-disclosure agreements. Why? Because the raid was conducted with the cooperation and knowledge of the Pakistani government; the SEALS faced no guard force; Bin Laden was a cripple unable to get out of bed and was shot so many times by the SEALs his body was dumped in the ocean.

Al Baghdadi? It is now clear he was protected by someone in Turkey. The Turks knew where he was and, until yesterday, kept him safe. Trump's actions over the last three weeks with respect to U.S. forces in Syria set the table for this operation. A combination of pressure and incentives confronted Turkey's President Erdogan and he rolled over.

It is telling that there was not a huge fire fight going in. Where was the Baghdadi security team? This is a further indicator that Baghdadi was betrayed by folks he thought were protecting him. Baghdadi fled his house and jumped into a tunnel.

Baghdadi is reported to have blown himself up. Looks like the mission was carried out by Delta Force. They are accompanied by Malanois dogs (looks a little like a German shepherd). Based on what Trump briefed today the dog followed Baghdadi down into the tunnel. The dog can run faster than any soldier in such an environment. Once Baghdadi was trapped he detonated his suicide vest. Fortunately, the dog was not killed (but probably suffered some frag wounds.)

(Someone needs to re-write the Peter and Gordon lyrics on "I Go to Pieces" in honor of Baghdadi's passing.)

 

Don't believe the media reports that the U.S. forces launched from Iraq. Just look at a map. Al Baghdadi was hiding out in Idlib province, which is in northwest Syria. Flight time in helicopters from Iraq is three hours plus. Flight time from the U.S. Air Force base in Incirlik, Turkey is about one hour. This came out of Turkey. That is why the U.S. coordinated/deconflicted the flight path with Russia. Flying from Turkey into northwest Syria takes one directly over territory controlled by the Russians and Syrians.

Trump's press conference was amazing. He did not divulge key operational details and did a good job of obfuscating the intel sources that provided the break on Al Baghdadi's location. 

One thing is certain--most of the anti-Trump crowd will look for some reason to criticize Trump's victory. The anti-Trumper crowd looks pretty stupid now. They were predicting the resurgence of ISIS. Whoops!! There goes that narrative. The new status quo in Syria means the end of the U.S. policy of regime change and the beginning of the rehabilitation of Syria as a legitimate nation state. This is really going to piss off the Deep State. All their plans initiated by Obama and Hillary are being destroyed by the red haired road runner known as Trump. 

Comments

[Serge]

About the burn pits ,I read about it this morning coincidentally in an article on the rise of cancers in US veterans over past 20 years:
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/national-security/article236413328.html
These soldiers and some researchers/clinicians blame burn pits that were burning tons of assorted military refuse on a daily basis in both iraq and afghanistan, not uranium. But I do not buy this explanation

[turcopolier]

Serge

Why do you not "buy" it?

[Serge]

Colonel,

If the burn pits are responsible then teratogenicity would be pronounced in the veteran population like it was for Agent Orange, and it wouldn’t be circumscribed to specific urban areas that saw intense use of certain munitions.

[Babak Makkinejad]

All

Interview with Bashar al Assad - 10/31/2019

https://sana.sy/en/?p=177331

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

Informative essay on why Turkisk leaders have done what they have done:

https://warontherocks.com/2019/10/turkey-and-russia-a-remarkable-rapprochement/

[Vig]

CK, yes, we all may lean towards educational measures once in a while. Ideally after careful reflections ...

And yes: we are all blind temporarily, or dazzled, if you like. ...

[Vig]

That doesn't answer Lyttenbourg's question. Prison samples, family?

But I wish I would care. Other then maybe wondering that a T-shirt would have done the same job.

[David Habakkuk]

Babak Makkinejad,

Many thanks for that reference.

I see that the author, Michael A. Reynolds, links to a paper he produced in April last year, entitled ‘Outfoxed by the Bear? America’s Losing Game Against Russia in the Near East.’

(See https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Reynolds2018.pdf .)

The title is somewhat misleading, in that the paper actually deals with the whole history of conflict between West and Russia over the ‘southern rim’ of that country since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the rather radical misreadings common in Washington – as also London.

A paragraph from the opening I enjoyed:

‘For over three centuries, Westerners have likened Russia to a bear. The comparison is not generally flattering. Although bears are large and powerful, the metaphor is commonly deployed to suggest a lumbering and clumsy creature. Hunters and woodsmen who risk encountering bears, however, are rarely inclined to indulge in such smugness. They know bears are clever, agile, and fast.’

The author is apparently associate professor of Near Eastern Studies and Director of the Program in Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies in Princeton University.

A comparison with the – borderline illiterate – demonstrations of ignorance and bigotry produced by figures like Lieutenant-Colonel Vindman is sobering.

In the United States, as in Britain, there is still real ‘area studies’ expertise. It has simply been marginalised from policy-making, in both countries, in favour of a kind of neo-Brezhnevite simplistic ideological dogmatism.

[Harry]

The joke from "the History Boys".

"History? Its just one ffing thing after another"

[Babak Makkinejad]

For the first 2 decades of Iranian Revolution, I cringed often at the policy statements as well as policies promulgated by the Iranian government: experts and their knowledge were dismissed in favor of ideological fervor and commitment. All of that changed by War and the other great teachers in the School of Hard-knocks. I expect nothing less here.

[Serge]

All,

Translation of the ISIS Baghdadi death announcement and appointment of new Caliph, for those interested in such things:

http://www.aymennjawad.org/2019/10/islamic-state-appointment-of-new-leader

[J]

Russian FM Lavrov is saying that Al-Baghdadi's death is 'still an open question'.

https://www.rt.com/news/472431-lavrov-al-baghdadi-us-spawn/

Hmmm.....

[CK]

"Trust but verify." I heard that somewhere a long time ago.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Thank you.

But those passages do not support your original claim of " sacred bond". The Fifth Commandment is recapitulated in Quran: 46: 15-16.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Shia are devotees of the Household of Prophet, respecting religious Authority, religious scholarship and Reason in interpretation of Quran, firm believers in Justice, and the intercessionary powers of their saints. They have overlaps with Catholicism and thus, unsurprisingly, they have become political enemies of Protestants.

[J]

The same thing was said with Bin-Laden, the first reports of his death were in December 2001 from Marfan syndrome. And then every few years he died again, and again, and again. Till the world got bored with it.

[Charles Peterson]

I agree the radiation is a non-issue, or at least nearly so. But what about the toxic uranium oxides and other chemicals created and widely dispersed when the slug of depleted uranium burns with everything around it at very high temperatures (in actual use) ?

I am glad to hear that DU weapons are no longer used. (Thanks.) But if the toxic chemicals I mentioned are as highly toxic and persistent as I had heard they are, this may be of little comfort to those who live where it was used in the past, up to just a few years ago.

[JP Billen]

He was evil based on his championship of slavery and beheadings. The same should also be said of the Saudis.

[JP Billen]

I also thank you for the reference. Reynolds' knowledge of Turkish/Russian relations far surpasses anything comprehended by Pompeo.

Unfortunately Reynolds has little to zero understanding of the SDF. He pushes Erdogan's line that the SDF is identical to the Kurdish YPG. That is definitely untrue. As can be seen by the current fighting at Tel Tamir where Assyrian and Armenian Christians are fighting under SDF flag against Erdogan's takfiris. And by the long association of the Arab Shammar and Shai'tat tribes with the SDF, and many Arab Raqqawis also. Ditto for those Shia Turkmen in Syria whose Seljuk Brigade is part of the SDF. Yes, the commander of the SDF, Maslum Kobane, is Kudish. But senior leadership is mixed: Kino Gabriel is an Assyrian Christian, Rashid Abu Khawla &
Abdul Karim Obeid are both Arab.

Reynolds is either ignorant of those facts, or he is deliberately pushing the Erdogan propaganda in order to keep open his access to Turkish historical archives.

[Babak Makkinejad]

There was nothing that ISIS was doing that did not have precedence in Muslim History, if not Muslim Tradition.