What a war with Iran would be ...

Mr. President, I believe that the Iranians will fight us with everything they have if we go to war with them.

• You have several thousand soldiers in Iraq and Syria.  These countries have large proxy forces of Iran's allies in the form of Shia militias in Iraq and actual Iranian Quds Force troops in Syria.  These forces will be used to attack and kill our soldiers.
• The Iranians have significant numbers of ballistic missiles which they have already said will be used against our forces
• The US Navy has many ships in the Gulf and the Arabian Sea.  The Iranian Navy and the IRGC Navy will attack our naval vessels until the Iranian forces are utterly destroyed.  In that process the US Navy will loose men and ships.
• In direct air attacks on Iran we are bound to lose aircraft and air crew.
• The IRGC and its Quds Force will carry out terrorist attacks across the world.

Do you really want to be a one term president?

Pompeo can talk big now and then go back to Kansas to run for senator. 

Where will you be able to take refuge? 

Don't let the neocons like Pompeo sell you on war.

Make the intelligence people show you the evidence in detail.  Make your own judgments.  pl

Comments

[David Solomon]

Bullshit.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Ironic in that Iran has been opposed to Globalism as well.

[Jack]

It appears that Lieberman is the kingmaker. Both Bibi and Gantz likely can’t form a government on their own or with those aligned with them. Lieberman is calling for a national unity government with an initial goal of flattening Gaza.

[Amir]

Without wanting to insult you, would that be like the crushing that Vietnam received, with the difference that Iran shared borders with Russian Federation as well as defacto China?

[Amir]

And send Clown Prince MBS Muhammad Bone Saw a condolence card with image of Pentagon, WTO & crashed airliner in Pennsylvania: this would be an act of remembrance. And yes I am biased.

[Fred]

DC,

Quoting Lars' : "The US should have gotten out of that part of the world a long time ago,...."
JCPOA has nothing to do with us leaving Afghanistan nor would it have kept us from "getting in deeper". Please spare us all the Trump is a racist line from the left.

[turcopolier]

Amir

Be honest - you wish to insult me. In VN we fought a COIN war. We did not seek to "crush" VN, north or south. In Iran we would just seek to destroy, everything.

[charly]

Azerbaijan, if the Americans use Azerbaijan is i assume something else

[charly]

You retreat tactically, than decide a an offensive is not opportune at that moment in time and 6 months later the Beltway decides you are insane if you suggest to invade Afghanistan.

[charly]

That assumes Iran would fight a low intensity war. I think they will hit back with full force.

[charly]

Iran* would also do cyber attacks. Not even mildly successful but they would lead to countries in having an excuse to dump Windows/Android for their national systems. And that would really hurt financially.

Iran* or Russia, China, Brazil, Turkey claiming to be Iran, they could even do a fake hit that only hit them.

[Nuff Sed]

From the latest by Pepe Escobar.

Readers should pay close attention to this groundbreaking interview with General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force. The interview, in Farsi (with English subtitles), was conducted by US-sanctioned Iranian intellectual Nader Talebzadeh and includes questions forwarded by my US analyst friends Phil Giraldi and Michael Maloof and myself.

Explaining Iranian self-sufficiency in its defense capabilities, Hajizadeh sounds like a very rational actor. The bottom line: “Our view is that neither American politicians nor our officials want a war. If an incident like the one with the drone [the RQ-4N shot down by Iran in June] happens or a misunderstanding happens, and that develops into a larger war, that’s a different matter. Therefore we are always ready for a big war.”

In response to one of my questions, on what message the Revolutionary Guards want to convey, especially to the US, Hajizadeh does not mince his words: “In addition to the US bases in various regions like Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Emirates and Qatar, we have targeted all naval vessels up to a distance of 2,000 kilometers and we are constantly monitoring them. They think that if they go to a distance of 400 km, they are out of our firing range. Wherever they are, it only takes one spark, we hit their vessels, their airbases, their troops.”

[johnf]

Netanyahu is reportedly exhausted. He now has many weeks ahead of him of wrestling for power, a struggle he will almost certainly lose. He will not have that much time for international decisions.

Who is Jared going to look to for guidance?

With no one at the helm (it looks as though Israel will be a no show at the UN this month) who are the Zionist movers and shakers around the world going to look to for guidance?

This is a time when they should be exerting maximum pressure for war with Iran. Instead, I suspect, they are divided and involved in the infighting within Israel itself.

The anti-semitism accusations against Corbyn in the UK seem to have disappeared. Is the similar campaign in the US against Bernie also flagging? Is Trump suddenly free to make hay in foreign policy?

[Yeah, Right]

From whom, exactly?

I mean, honestly, how many troops does CENTCOM have?
Is it less than 50,000? There or thereabouts?

That's nothing near the number of troops that would be required for a ground attack against Iran itself.

It took Schwarzkopf nearly six months to build up the 500,000+ troops he needed before he was willing to attack the Iraqi army. It took Franks slightly less time, but still many, many months.

The Iranians are not the Iraqis. They would not sit back and watch while the CENTCOM commander spends months on a leisurely built up his ground forces. But without that buildup then there is no possibility that CENTCOM can invade Iran.

I would argue the exact opposite to you i.e. if Trump does start a war then there is every incentive for the Iranians to mobilize every reservist and send them marching against CENTCOM, and from their point of view the sooner the better.

[Yeah, Right]

I agree completely. The Iranians have displayed great intelligence in the face of extreme hostility.

But if Trump starts a shooting war then the smart move from the Iranians is *not* to allow it to be a purely aerial campaign.

Their biggest advantage is that they have a large army and CENTCOM does not, so make it a land campaign.

At best they might repeat the success of the Chinese at Chosin Reservoir in the Korean war. At worst it will cause the USAF to divert attention away from their pre-planned target list.

After all, recall the confidence of McArthur a few days before the Chinese stormed over the Yalu: "They have no Air Force. Now that we have bases for our Air Force in Korea if the Chinese tried to get down to Pyongyang there would be the greatest slaughter."

A month later the Chinese had swept way past Pyongyang and were in Seoul.

Air power is not everything. Not when you do not have enough ground troops and your enemy does.

[Yeah, Right]

Australian, actually.

Sydney, to be more precise.

I have no affiliation with that lamentable Apartheid state, and every Israeli I have ever met has made the experience very disagreeable indeed.

[Philippe Rouquet]

I have been reading this thread exchanges with utmost interests and from a European perspective. No one will ever know who did this since it is highly probable it is a covert operation.
No body in his right mind can doubt the US and Israel can utterly destroy Iran. However, the outcome of the destruction would precipitate the demise of the US and its allies.
If the western world were truly interested in bringing about regime change in Iran, it is not by cornering and strangling the economy.
Once sanctions are lifted and Iranian people start developing their economy, the mollahs will spontaneously lose their supremacy.

The way we have been dealing with Iran is pure warmongering and if this continues, it will not end well for ALL for us. I am not a military expert but I am sure of this.

[Christian J Chuba]

We will never invade Iran, just bomb

Limiting ourselves to military targets (and commercial shipping) would require months of $200 oil and be a war of attrition that we might lose. Therefore bombing would be expanded to vital civilian infrastructure, power plants, refineries, factories all of which are close to cities and would kill many thousands of civilians both directly and indirectly re-classifying this as miliary targets. In effect, we would go 'Dresden' on them. Contrary to propaganda, Ayatollah Khamanei does care enough about his people to eventually throw in the towel. Our populace has been conditioned to accept this kind of warfare.

This is the reason I detest the Sean Hannity's of the world, people like him have de-humanized the Iranians so much that we can commit war crimes against them and shrug it off while being horrified about an apparently bloodless attack against the Saudis. He would make such a bombing campaign in a war of choice sound honorable.

If anyone of importance ever read my words (not delusional enough to consider this possible), I'd say, are you willing to commit such heinous acts for a war that we are instigating. The Houthis launched this attack with Iranian designed weapons. How many countries could justifiably bomb us if we held ourselves to the same standard.

[CK]

Wonderful suggestions, they will sit really well with the Democrats main donors. Which might be why none of the dem candidates has raised that issue.

[Barbara Ann]

Yes, this war would finish the Trump brand, but I cannot see how perpetrating such an atrocity could fail to take America's with it. De Tocqueville would be proven correct.

Bless you for speaking truth to power Colonel.

[PRC90]

So far Trump is playing hard to hit re his handling of Iran, and the next step is largely in Iranian hands, hence the DNC would need to avoid saying anything that could come back to bite them.

I'm waiting for the first Iran-DNC collusion Tweet from 'someone'.

If the DNC does not bring Tulsi Gabbard on as a run-on in the last 15 minutes of the game, lets her trample Joe and the other two viable contenders, then uses that ongoing momentum as Nominee in the contest against Trump, then they deserve the fruits of defeat.

[PRC90]

Thanks.
Those little ones with the winglets would not have had much more than a 100Nm range, probably less, and may ust be a part of the Saudi's tech exploit museum collection.
If they were part of the pick up after the recent raid then they were not launched from Iran or Yemen. Their damage is also consistent with impact in forward flight, not a warhead detonation.

[PRC90]

Thank you, I shall in future keep that in mind when choosing only genuine products from the Islamic Republic !

[Amir]

I do not want to insult you. As a matter of fact, YOU are one of “things” that keeps my faith in US going. I think you are an honorable man and believe in what you think is right and your effort in avoiding aggression towards my county of birth, is greatly appreciated, regardless of the motive.

I have been reading you blog for what feels like almost 2 decades and disagree with some of your thoughts/actions but I also realize that I have never been in the same spot. As a matter of fact, if we run into each other in Little-Inn-At-Washington (never been there but read about it in your blog), if I can afford it and you are willing to accept it, I would like to buy you a drink.

[Brian Weston]

Why does Iran need to invade anywhere ?
They can just ‘dig in’ and ‘repel all borders’ whilst attacking everything in sight with their huge missile stock creating mayhem and global economic disaster. That is what their religion teaches, for them to be instigators of the apocalypse.