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28 September 2019

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Lars

I don't think Pompeo forgot about honor as much as he just discarded it. But I expect him to roll over on Trump rather soon, since he has future political ambitions. I guess that is why he was getting a subpoena first.

Saudi Arabia may survive for a while yet, but they are so far behind the rest of the world that it may not be sustainable and tourism will not save them. Nor will the next US administration.

I am not sure how solid any cease fire will be either.

Babak Makkinejad

Pompeo publicly & joyfully praised cheating and lying.

JP Billen

Ansarullah is reporting a major ground victory near Najran according to al-Jazeera. Supposedly hundreds of Saudis including a Commander surrendered. I wonder which unit, and if the Commander was a grandson or great grandson of ibn Saud?

turcopolier

lars

I agree with all that. Pompeo is going to betray Trump.

ParjleSal

what cease fire ? its a houthi victoire .
https://southfront.org/operation-victory-from-god-houthis-neutralize-thousands-of-saudi-led-coalition-personnel-in-large-scale-ambush/

Seamus Padraig

Pompeo apparently learned his ethics at the CIA: 'We lied, we cheated, we stole.'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfrhATD4nM0

Norbert M Salamon

Slightly off topic:
According to Amb. Freeman in: Ready, Fire, Aim: U.S. Interests in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria [Dated yesterday]
The DoD has 15.3 billion and State Dept. has 1 billion tp waste in Syria this fiscal year.

ISL

Dear Colonel,

The recent, very successful, Houthi action that appears to have captured thousands of Saudi Troops including senior officers, was the awaited followup for missile swarm attack and likely was the persuasive factor.

https://news.antiwar.com/2019/09/28/yemens-houthis-claim-an-assault-on-southern-saudi-arabia/

seems like parts of the Saudi military are near collapse, and Saudi leadership may be realizing it (I suspect Saudi officers regularly lie to their superiors about things like morale and readiness)

If the Houthi have ties to the Shiite in Saudi Arabia (suggested by the successful oil facility attack), they have lots of room to to escalate further; its hard to see how the Saudi's can escalate.

Apparently, the Saudi's see peace as more valuable than US protection (which is focused on harassing Iran), particularly since the US protection did not protect.

What will be interesting is how fast the Saudi's dump US missile systems (Patriot, THAAD) for the S-300/S-400, which actually demonstrated functionality in Syria (including against advanced drone swarms launched by the jihadi's against the Russian base. This issue, has been the straw that moved Turkey out of the US orbit. Sure there were other aspects, but all the negative things one can identify about Erdogan's Turkey, apply ten fold to the Saudi's.

oldman22

"Yemen's Houthi movement has said it carried out an attack near the border with the southwestern Saudi region of Najran and captured "thousands" of enemy troops including several Saudi army officers but there was no immediate confirmation from the authorities in Saudi Arabia."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/houthis-claim-capture-thousands-saudi-troops-attack-190928144722091.html

Patrick Armstrong

Gee whillakers. David's kid brother has defeated Washington's junior kid brother. Now what?

srw

Your analysis I think is spot on.

Patrick Armstrong

I think "Petrel" has nailed it https://thesaker.is/iran-prevails-over-the-usa-twice-but-this-is-far-from-over/#comment-699442

For many years before he threw his hat in the presidential race, Donald Trump was a regular contributor — usually by telephone — on multiple TV and Radio news shows and consistently spoke against US interventions in the Middle East. He sang that same song during his primary and general election races.

Come to Washington, President Trump discovered that his government appointees needed approval by a Deep State hopelessly entangled with globalism, neocons & MIC. So President Trump focused his must-haves on Treasury, Commerce and Trade and for the last 2.5 years he has backed his personnel choices as they attacked internal and external globalism with a vengeance.

Regarding the Department of State, Intelligence, National Security Advisor and such, President Trump negotiated, if generally failed, to acquire the personnel he wanted, but once these were installed, he proceeded to:
1. Ostensibly support them noisily, while
2. Privately challenging their advice, then
3. Failing to release the troops / funds needed for their proposed adventures.

Hence the ‘revolving door’ pattern of these unsuitable advisors.

We come to Iran. President Trump has no wish to open a war with Iran, since he knows the US can’t even move troops and materiel to the region without the assistance of Iran’s ally Russia. *** When Senator Graham proposed such a war, President Trump publicly asked how it could even be initiated? Then again, President Trump, a developer of quality condominiums, rentals and golf courses, actually believes he should honor contracts and agreements, especially election promises. Furthermore, he knows his ‘deplorable’ lower middle and working class American supporters consider such wars pointless 1% enrichment games.

It may not be naive to believe that President Trump will avoid a war with Iran at all cost — knowing as he does that Iran does not wish to engage him in a war either.

*** Each of our $ 6.5 Billion carriers, with $ 3.5 Billion in planes and 4,500 seamen would be sunk by three $1.5 million Iranian missiles within 1,000 miles of Hormuz — a reality explained to him during the North Korea standoff, when three of our carriers hurriedly sailed south of Australia on the launch of one NoKo missile.

turcopolier

SRW

My analysis has failed two or three times over the last 30-40 years. It failed because of my laziness in not learning enough, but I know SA and Yemen well.

turcopolier

Patrick Armstrong

"President Trump discovered that his government appointees needed approval by a Deep State hopelessly entangled with globalism, neocons & MIC." You left out the Zionists. I guess the Bronfmans, etc. are fearful folk. The "MIC?" Do you mean the industrial makers of hardware or the military? Eisenhower was a fool to put it that way, but then, he was never much of a soldier.

ISL

All:

It was just noted on Jimmy Dore that the Saudi Military is all Pakistani at less than the lieutenant colonel level!!!

Sounds like a backbone-less military - with spine provided by US troops on behalf of the perfumed princes.

Lars

I think that Gen. Eisenhower is a rare example of successfully herding cats.

Since the US is still making tanks that go directly to permanent storage, he may have been right about MIC.

The main reason for the success of MIC is that parts are made in many, many congressional districts, which Ike foresaw.

I am unable to assess him as soldier, but he has a vast road system named after him. I am sure most soldiers considers roads to be important.

Sbin

Yemen troops captured 3 Brigades of Saudi mercenaries and weapons.
Would be beautiful thing for MBS to get Gaddafi treatment.

turcopolier

lars

Marshall herded cats better. One of them was Eisenhower. Others were FDR and Churchill. The US has ONE tank plant. Do you think we should close it? Perhaps you think like my mother who said to me that tanks would never be used again in battle. that was in 1958. IMO Eisenhower's project for the interstate highways had nothing to do with military necessity. He could not have foreseen the possibility of another civil war.

turcopolier

ISL

In my experience that was not true. Service in the Royal Saudi Land Forces was highly prized as a work free job opportunity for poor village boys. At the same time many Pakistanis were seconded to the MODA under protocols between the governments. The SANG is a completely different subject manned by regime loyal beduin tribes. The Paks also liked being seconded to MODA but that was because they liked the money, which was good, very good. except they did not like the abuse from the fops. When I was DATT there they sought me out to complain about the abuse. Officers of the Guides Cavalry did not like being crapped on by the fops. The war in Yemen may have scared many of the Saudis out of the military but I understand that most of the forces engaged against the Yemenis on the ground are Africans.

JP Billen

al-Masirah is reporting that the captured were mostly traitors and the beguiled (meaning Saudi-sponsored Yemeni militiamen loyal to Yemen's former president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi).

Although some Saudis, including officers, were also captured.

Babak Makkinejad

IKE was the man most responsible for setting the United States on the collision course with core state of Muslim Civilization. This is not an opinion but a historical fact as the bills have come in over that last 66 years.

Babak Makkinejad

DJT bears responsibility for continuing his predecessors bone-headed policies in the Middle East. No one had put a gun to his head to so, he could have broken with the baggage of 70 years and freed the United States from her tragic encounter with Islam.

Babak Makkinejad

Instead, he doubled down on following Israel into a dead-end. And you heard that first from me on this forum.

Fred

Lars,

Yes, he'll get real creative, just like Nadler in his opening remarks the other day.

Fred

Sabin,

No, it would be an act of malice.

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