Open Thread on the effort to expel Trump from office through impeachment.

It takes a simple majority (218) for the House of Representatives to pass a bill of impeachment against any federal official.  The Democrats have 232 seats in the present congress.  The Bill (equivalent to an indictment) then is transferred to the US Senate where the impeached person is tried before the US Senate with the Chief Justice of the United State presiding.. 2/3 of the senators must vote for conviction for that to occur.  Two presidents have been impeached.  None has been convicted.

This thread will be open for a long time.  pl

Comments

[Jack]

Sir

I don’t believe Nancy has the votes. Any Democrat from a Red leaning district would have to make a calculation if being associated with the “Resistance” would play well in 2020. Tulsi Gabbard from Bright Blue Hawaii will not be voting to impeach.

Unlike Lars, I believe that if the House votes to impeach that McConnell will get the Senate trial going and there will be a vote, which will not have the requisite margin to convict. Many Democrat senators will be in the camp that votes against conviction.

I’m willing to bet that Trump will use this impeachment as a badge of honor and successfully use it in his re-election campaign against the Democrats likely winning both the House and Senate for his second term. You don’t have to agree with his personality or many of his policies but even a NeverTrumper should admit that his political skill with enough of the electorate is superior to Nancy & Chuck and their media hypemeisters.

[Tom Wonacott]

It's clear that Trump was trying to dig up dirt on his primary political opponent (at the moment) for the 2020 election - Joe Biden. He pressured the newly elected President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and may have threatened to withhold military aid. If this is all true, then the House will vote to impeach. The Senate is a different story. The Republicans will likely stand with the President - unless the political costs become too great.

[turcopolier]

Tom Wonacutt

These are mere assertions. You have no proof that any of that is true and it is denied by Lezinsky. You merely want to overthrow the constitutional order here in service of the globalist revolution.

[Eric Newhill]

Jack,
I agree that there are not going to be enough votes for the reason you state. The Democrats are going to have egg all over their faces, again. How many times can a party come off as giant losers and still attract voters? I think this may be the end of the road for their party as it currently exists.

Additionally, this definitely puts a fork in Biden. After all, he bragged about doing exactly what they are accusing of Trump of doing. He could have flown under the radar with that, but the impeachment proceedings shines a big bright spotlight on it all. I can't tell if he was sacrificed or they're just too stupid and crazed to understand what they're doing to him.

IMO, the public's perception will extend beyond Biden to become a general sense of hypocrisy and corruption among Democrats (an accurate perception). Americans don't like that kind of unfairness. Also, many Americans are sick and tired of Democrats viciously slandering and misusing Constitutional processes to attack anyone they don't like (think Kavanaugh).

This will also energize Trump's base to donate and vote.

I see interesting nuances in the transcript that are favorable to Trump - like The Ukrainian Prez having a favorable relationship with Trump (contra to what Democrats say about no one liking him), the agreement that Merkel and Euros stink and that Trump is helping the Ukraine defend against Russia + some positives concerning Russian sanctions (again contra the Democrat memes). These items will be subtly absorbed by anyone interested enough to read it. Some fence sitters may be swayed toward Trump as an effective FP front man.

On the facts, Democrats can infer the most sinister of motives on Trump's part as they are wont to do, but the legal definition just isn't there.

This is what happens when you allow a 28 year old coffee house waitress and some 85 IQ racist America haters to steal leadership of the party from a speaker of the house that should have been sent off to pasture a term or two ago. The Democrats are no longer serious adults and they should be destroyed for the good of the country. Inshallah.

[Factotum]

Using the scenario you set out TW, why didn't they impeach Obama for the same "crimes"? What set of values applies to one case of "election interference" that can not be claimed against the IG findings of Obama election interference.

[Lars]

The good news is that the process is constitutional. Anyone who think they can see the outcome in their crystal ball will probably eat a lot of broken glass. When Nixon was facing a similar situation, he had the support of his party. At the end of the inquiry, he had lost it. How this turns out, nobody knows at this time, although some will not believe that either.

[Vegetius]

The left reeks of corruption, paranoia, and fear. Now is the time to turn up the pressure, force them ever further left, and provoke a stampede of working white people from the party.

With these folks we liquidate the clownshow that is Conservative Inc, jettison the last half-century of failed finance capitalism, and effect a coalition that is socially conservative, economically populist, and deeply nationalist. A third way, if you will.

[Factotum]

Tom W:

1. Nothing is clear about these alleged Democrat claims
2. The dirt on Biden's son was in plain sight, no digging needed
3. Biden's son is not a candidate for president
4. Zelenskiy said he never felt any pressure
5. None of what you claim to build your case has any element of truth
6. How healthy for this country is a strict party line impeachment vote
7. Senate will stand with America; and not any one person, if asked to vote on this matter.

[oldman22]

So the allegation is that Biden threatened to terminate USA aid to the Ukraine government, which was/is attacking Eastern Ukraine in violation of the Minsk agreement.
Am I the only person who thinks it was wrong to aid the Ukraine government in the first place?

[Chris Peters]

I find it an amusing coincidence that "Lezinsky" is one mere letter away from "Lewinsky."

In my mind the outcome of any impeachment effort by overzealous dems will have a similar outcome. Failure to convict in the Senate. As an added bonus, similar to the massive losses Newt Gingrich and co. suffered in the 1998 midterms (after the impeachment hearings began) this will work in Trump's favor.

[Eric Newhill]

Hearing the craven Democrats on the news right now, "If the President asked for a favor, then ,naturally, he'd have to pay it back someday...to a foreign country's leader!!!"

What a collection of dopes. The US is giving the Ukraine how much in aid? I'd say that quid is already paid in spades - and it's a quid that these same morons approved.

Sheesh. They must really think we're stupid. They can't even deliver good BS.

[blue peacock]

Lars

They've been at it since even before the last election. They've thrown everything at it including the totality of law enforcement, intelligence and even foreign intelligence. They've used FISA surveillance, spies, honey traps, congressional committees, a special counsel and everything the media could throw at it.

What do you think the Democrats in the House can find now in the next few months that two-thirds of the Senate would consider so egregious that they would vote to convict? Remember that as we get closer to the election an argument that will get a lot of momentum is - let the people decide.

As a betting man myself I'll take whatever odds the bookies are willing to provide that Trump will not be convicted by the Senate.

[Factotum]

Lars, didn't the Nixon impeachment case start with a verified crime, a trail of money, self-damaging tapes, as well as a mysterious 17 minute recording gap? What elements are similar in your case against Trump. How much longer do we have to wait to get a similar string of culpable evidence against Trump? Lies and rumors about Nixon swirled for years, yet there was an actual criminal break-in (police reports- court trials) that started the final unraveling, years later.

[JohnH]

Impeachments are less about facts and criminality and more about political power. And I think Democrats got spooked when it became apparent that Trump was about to take down that last great hope of the Democratic establishment at a time when Biden seems like anything but a sure bet.

Will it work? If anything, this shenanigan promises to connect Biden with corruption, rightly or wrongly. My guess is that he's toast.

That means that the Democrats will have to bet on Elizabeth Warren's drawing power and the advent of a recession, which the impeachment may well trigger.

[Factotum]

When US "aid" comes back as $650,000 a year compensation for a dear son, one can appreciate the temptation for a person of weak character. But can't we say that about much of our "foregin aid" - targeted quid pro quo - mainly to support the Democrat defense industry union workers. No wonder Seattle and the state of Washington runs so liberal.

[Factotum]

Working government-employee union people (aka "working families") will stick with the Democrat party. Other non-union and private industry union working people have already left.

[ISL]

Here is my (wishful) SWAG - Biden support collapses, Tulsi knee caps Warren in the next debate, Harris is already collapsing, and picks up enough of the dis-illusioned Biden/Harris supporters to start being taken seriously by the media. And then she has a good chance.

Her comment on not being Saudi Arabia's bitch is the type of winning argument none of the other Dems could or would make. From what I have seen, the media has a hard time destroying her.

Makes me argue for gun control for the dems (as a safety measure) so that maybe then they will stop shooting themselves in the foot..

[Fred]

Tom,

Military aid, once voted by Congress is sacrosanct and can not be delayed or denied for any reason, it's right there in amendment zero section zzz of the constitution.

[Fred]

Lars,

There are zero similarities. Nixon did not deny military aid to a foreign country. The bad news, Obama's spying on Trump was illegal and the left is desperate to cover it up. It looks like it is still going on.

[Fred]

The National Endowment for Democracy allegedly spent billions in Ukraine prior to the color revolution. Who received that money and what did it get spent on? How much came back as donations to politically connected NGOs, companies or individuals?

[catherine]

THE USA! OF THE PARTIES, BY THE PARTIES, FOR THE PARTIES !!

My little voice says I am so tired of them I don't want to watch their circus any more. I want to go the farm, sit on the grass under the oak tree, maybe pick some grapes and feed apples and sugar cubes to my old horse.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

I really did try to write a coherent post, gave up, and then read “The Coup Has Begun – The Empire Strikes Back Everywhere”. Tom Luongo did it for me:
https://tomluongo.me/2019/09/24/coup-begun-empire-strikes-back-everywhere

[r whitman]

This impeachment affair will be great entertainment for the next 6 months or a year. It will be my soap opera. It is absolutely meaningless as to who wins.

[turcopolier]

r whitman

You won't think so if Sanders or Warren wins.

[Jim Ticehurst]

I Suspect that A.G. Barr will Rock The House Soon..