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30 September 2019

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different clue

It would end one major source of jihaddery, but would likely replace it with another. In the event of the collapse and removal of the House of Saud and their Saudi Family Ranch ( the Kingdom of "Saudi" Arabia), the likeliest outcome is that al Qaeda and ISIS would immediately arise and/or arrive to fight over the oil and the money and the heaps of weapons and supplies.

If the conquered provinces and regions could break away before the Islamic Emirate of Arabia or the ISIStic Caliphate of Arabia could conquer them, then their land and people would not automatically be transferred to the post-Saudi jihadistas who take over. In such a scenario, the best thing that could happen for the world at large would be for the Shia Province of Oil Fieldistan to come under Iraq/Iran protection effective enough to kill every jihadi which tries to enter it.

(I have read somewhere that there was another notable family in Nejd - the Rashidis - who lost out to the Saudis in a power struggle. They may still be nursing their grievance and plotting their return from whatever countries they live in now. If the Saudi collapse happens slowly enough to give certain outside interveners a warning and time to intervene, they may offer the Rashidis-in-exile support to return, take over, and rule a kinder gentler kingdom. The Kingdom of Rashidi Arabia or something like that).

different clue

Well, you know what they say . . . " if the hissy fits, wear it."

ISL

Dear Colonel, Ah, I get it - mountainous terrain used well.

Joseph Moroco

Colonel,

Is there a possibility of the Houthis taking the oil fields and the Shia with them in breaking up the kingdom. If that happened, a fanatic prince would not be able to do as much damage.

Of course, the neocons could not help trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

Peteschmell

I am sorry. I am new to this place. "Post" button seemed to be unresponsive, that's why I tried to push it multiple times.

Babak Makkinejad

It is not true what you are saying, Saddam Hussein lacked the vision of conquering Arabia Felix. His chance was in 1979-1980, but he blew it by invading Iran. He was not secular either, he was against Shia Islam and Iran out of Sunni Arab prejudice.

turcopolier

peterschmitt

All comments on SST are moderated by me or the authir of a front page post before they are posted.

turcopolier

JM

The US and a coalition of other nations would intervene militarily to prevent a Houthi/12er seizure of the oil. This would be justified on the basis of the supposed alliance with Iran. It would be easy to justify on that basis.

Johnb

The Hashemites were the traditional Custodians of the two Holy Mosques until displaced by the House of Saud, I believe they remain by agreement the Custodian of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Should the House of Saud
fall then there is a substantial possibility that legitimate authority would revert to the Hashemite family.

Terence Gore

"Canada does not export items destined for Yemen or that we suspect might be used in Yemen due to the impact on regional stability and security."

https://irrussianality.wordpress.com/2019/09/30/trudeaus-jeeps-in-action/

Leith

The Rashidis were of the Shammar tribe, one of the largest tribes in Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria. There is reportedly a Shammar-backed 'Saudi Democratic Opposition Front' based in Paris. But they say they have many supporters in the Mid-East including within Saudi Arabia. They claim supporters in Qatar also.

The Shammar of northeast Syria are fierce fighters. They have been one of the strongest allies of the Kurds and Syriacs in the fight against against ISIS in Hasakah, Raqqa, Manbij, and other battles. They are not descendants of the Rashidis, they had relocated north in the 18th century amid Wahabi wars ignited by a previous Saudi state. So they are virulently anti-Wahhabi and anti-Saudi. Their tribal leader Sheikh Humaydi Daham al-Hadi favors the breakup of Saudi Arabia. He wants to carry on the 200-plus year old struggle against conservative Wahhabi Islam, which destroyed the Rashidis, AKA the Emirate of Jabal Shammar. “We are already working on that,” he said back in 2015.

Doubtful in my mind he could pull it off, as it is a long, long way from Hasakah to Riyadh. And it is an even longer distance from Paris to Riyadh. But with all of MBS's other problems, who knows? Perhaps Sheikh Humaydi's effort and the Paris group could be the proverbial straw-that-broke-the-camels-back and contribute to a breakup.

JP Billen

Different Clue: Here are some links regarding the Saudi opposition:

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article41559747.html

https://raseef22.com/article/1071038-story-shammar-tribe-understand-indigenous-inhabitants-region

https://www.aljazeera.com/archive/2006/08/2008410135114534434.html

The last one also mention another Saudi opposition group based in London, the Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia (MIRA).

confusedponderer

Norbert M Salamon,
re: "As the oil fields are in the Shia populated area of Saudi, it is highly unlikely that Al Quaeda Isis will be able to control that area."

These folks have their way.

Unlike MbS with his Kashoggi "outsourced style" they are more direct and don't bother going and getting (personally, physically, morally) dirty. Doesn't mean it'll work, as the Yemen ambush shows, but still.

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world-sickening-new-isis-video-shows-minor-jihadists-shooting-syrian-prisoners-345543

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