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30 September 2019

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Jack
“...if Mohammed bin Salman and his family wish to save their kingdom, it is better to start talking to the Houthis immediately. Otherwise it is only a matter of time before another attack by Ansarullah leads to the complete collapse and ruin of the House of Saud and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

IMO, it would be good to see the collapse of the House of Saud. That could end a major sponsor of jihadism.

Hopefully it will also put neoconism in the ER.

Peteschmell

When war goes full blown scale, the gas prices will go up which may erase a lot of popularity points for Trump. The owners of gas guzzlers mostly identify as Trump's voters and it would challenge their identity if they were forced into making peace with hybrid or electric cars.

confusedponderer

Jack,
the Saudi royals and the offspring MbS are bad enough. Still, I have a hunch that what may replace them will not necessarily be "nicer". Imagine that oil and money in the hands of Al Quaeda or ISIS types?

And if it came to that, Saudi royals would likely and naturally take their private jets or yachts and flee to destitute places of utter poverty, like Monaco, London, Paris, New York, Washington, Florida, Switzerland or the Bermudas (where the Bermuda triangle may just come in handy).

jd hawkins

It would certainly be a Good start.

Christian J Chuba

I highlighted the following portions to call out that the rebellion which controls 80% of the populated areas (when do they get to be called a regime?) have significant elements of the Yemeni army and including the navy. I hate that the Neocons managed to glue 'Iranian backed' to every reference to their name. To the average person, it makes the Houthis sound more Iranian than Yemeni, they were born in Yemen but we get to be the arbiters of who is a good Yemeni. The only thing Neocons are good at is lying.

"the asymmetrical tactics of the Houthis, combined with the conventional capabilities of the Yemeni army, are capable of bringing the Saudi kingdom of Mohammed Bin Salman to its knees. The Yemeni army’s missile forces are able to carry out highly complex attacks"
Bill H

I seem to recall reading from the beginning of this sadly misbegotten war that Yemeni ground forces were defeating Saudis and their proxies on a consistent and frequent basis, and that they were making raids into Saudi territory. There was a drumbeat about a Saudi offensive which was going to close a major port, which would starve the Yemenis into submission. The story died quickly when the offensive was defeated almost at birth. That was why the western media has been reporting only on the air war.

fredw

Be careful of what you wish for. The collapse of Saddam Hussein was a good thing in SO many ways. But "good" requires a plan for what comes after. Don't suppose that what follows will automatically be an improvement. There is almost no level of bloody hell that can't be made worse with the right people engaged. So who is that you think would take over?

Sbin

Libyan model for MBS and family?
That is how exceptional indispensable people do diplomacy.

prawnik

Somehow, Pompeo will find a way to blame Iran, as he doesn't want to expand the war on Yemen. He wants a war on Iran.

Maybe those wily Persians can now teleport?

prawnik

Snark aside, one thing that I have noted in my totally unscientific social media review is the number of self-identified Sunnis who express disgust with Saudi Arabia and who take the side of the Houthis.

turcopolier

peterscgmitt

Do not post things more than once.

Fred

fredw,

But this collapse would mostly be the fault of the Saudi's and the color change revolutionists as a byproduct of their respective ideologies and thus well deserved.

Norbert M Salamon

As the oil fields are in the Shia populated area of Saudi, it is highly unlikely that Al Quaeda Isis will be able to control that area. It is likely that Israel's nightmare comes to pass as Iranian affiliation, if not out right union with at least Bahrain [

blue peacock

"The collapse of Saddam Hussein was a good thing in SO many ways."

What collapse? He was ousted by US military force. Many around the world including in the US opposed that boneheaded neocon policy of a war to take out Saddam on false pretenses. Jihadism & sectarian conflict only arrived in Iraq as a consequence and the enablement of Iranian allies in Iraq.

Saddam was a secular dictator and not a supporter of Islamic terrorism. He was also a check on Iran. In fact if the neocons did not intervene to topple him he would likely have also taken Saudi Arabia after consolidating Kuwait and gotten rid of the House of Saud. That would have been a good thing in retrospect. Imagine what it would have been with a secular Arabia that included Syria, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. 9/11 likely would not have happened as Saddam would have eliminated all the radical extremists in Saudi Arabia and would certainly have stopped sponsorship of the jihadists.

ambrit

Sir;
If the House of Saud indeed is in peril, the main question that would be uppermost in the minds of devout Muslims would be; who becomes the 'keeper' of Mecca and Medina, correct? There is a religious dimension to, seemingly, everything connected to the House of Saud. How "bitter ender" will the Wahabbi elements associated with the House of Saud become? From what I have read in history about the behaviours of Theocracies in the past, the portents seem dire.
Am I misreading this?

ted richard

the west has underestimated the iranians the russians and the chinese 'for-eva' and now finds itself by the side of the road holding its collective d--k in its collective hand as the eurasian world speeds into the future off in the distance.

this is EXACTLY what happens when you promote incompetent mediocrities into policy making positions of power in the government, the intelligence services and the military as has been going on throughout the west for quite some time.

filled with hubris and self importance from beating up semi-helpless foes they never see a real competitor coming.

they get blindsided

turcopolier

ambrit

The Al-Saud hedonists are not all the Al-Saud. A lot of them are fanatics as well. The dynasty has cultivated the Wahhabi 'Ulema and funded their institutions of study, etc. IMO the most likely outcome to an overthrow of the incumbemts would be a fanatic prine elevated to the throne ewit hthe wild eyed enthusiastic backing of the masses.

ISL

Dear Colonel,

Although it looks like the Houthi's cutoff reinforcements very effectively, it seems the Saudi forces outran their supply lines or had no protected supply lines.

Is this why the cauldron that the Houthi's created for Saudi forces collapsed so much faster than in Ukraine, or was it more the case of an army that is not fighting for patriotic reasons having no reason to continue fighting. Certainly didnt help that the military leadership fled.

I do not think surrendered Ukrainians were treated worse than by the Houthis...

turcopolier

ISL

Brigadier Saree, the briefer, explains at the beginning that the Yemeni rebels systematically captured the outposts on the supply route from the east after they invested Najran. I doubt there is more than one good road from Najran to the east but I have not been there for a long time.

Fred

ted,

You are not giving the Houthis any credit for this victory. BTW the Russians aren't of the "West"?

fredw

Not talking about fault or what the current elites deserve. Only observing that a "good" collapse requires an outcome that can be considered better than the present. Such an outcome is in no way guaranteed. The Sauds, for instance, do not enforce Wahhabi morality because they believe in it, but because there are people around who think they are way too moderate about it and who have the power to make them pay attention.

"Collapse" may be a bit of a euphemism in Saddam's case. It certainly applies in plenty of other cases that turned out badly.

It is easy to "feel good" about the idea of evil people falling from power. But that is usually a symbolic "feel good" divorced from any actual connection to the issues or commitment to improvement. People who are part of that world have to think harder.

artemesia

Off topic, but maybe Col Lang will let it pass --

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM2k7SOLIH4

Chinese celebrate 70th National Day w Parade, Music, Fireworks

Maybe it's not too late for USA to return to George Washington foreign policy advice -- no particular friendships, respect all, trade w/ all.

JamesT

Colonel

I would not have guessed that this was a likely outcome. I learn something new from you weekly.

ambrit

Sir;
Oh boy. Talk about "watch out what you wish for!"
Thank you.

prawnik

Yea, but Israel would have have a hissy hissy fit.

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