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16 September 2019


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"Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things."

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."


the ability to think is a political detriment. Of course, reality always intrudes.


A processing train that the pressure tanks are linked to Colonel, my apologies. I believe it is that part of the plant shown damaged in the long rectangle to the left of the three groups of pressure tanks.


My thanks JPB. Would they be more vulnerable to an explosive force than a penetrative force.?

Dave Good

PRV s are devices too small too shoe up at the resolution of satellite photos used here.
Of more concern is the complete absencr of what you would expect theday after an attack like this. Where are the emergency vehicles? The crews hauling away debris? The goses?poolsof water and foam? There is no one ther


Dave Good

Probably hiding.

JP Billen

Let us both hope your 50-year prediction does not come to pass. Be optimistic. shoot for two years or six.

JP Billen

I would suspect so, but am no expert.

JP Billen

Colonel Lang is correct I think. Weren't those photos taken the same day? Probably only key Aramco personnel were allowed in to assess safety concerns prior to clean-up.


One can apply Bayesian statistics to this.

We must agree that we are not at the start of US-Iran Hostilities.

Nor are we at their final phase.

So we can say that we are at the 25%, 35%, 50%, 65%, 75% point in duration hostilities.

We set the probability of each possibility as 20%.

So far, the hostilities have lasted 40 years.

If we are at 25% point, then 160 more years of hostilities are ahead of us.

If we are at 75% point, we are facing another 13 year until these hostilities are ended.

The average time of hostilities would be (160+ 114+80+62+53)/5 = 77.8 years.

Since 40 years have already past, we are looking at another 38 years.

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