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16 September 2019


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My thanks JPB. Would they be more vulnerable to an explosive force than a penetrative force.?

Dave Good

PRV s are devices too small too shoe up at the resolution of satellite photos used here.
Of more concern is the complete absencr of what you would expect theday after an attack like this. Where are the emergency vehicles? The crews hauling away debris? The goses?poolsof water and foam? There is no one ther


Dave Good

Probably hiding.

JP Billen

Let us both hope your 50-year prediction does not come to pass. Be optimistic. shoot for two years or six.

JP Billen

I would suspect so, but am no expert.

JP Billen

Colonel Lang is correct I think. Weren't those photos taken the same day? Probably only key Aramco personnel were allowed in to assess safety concerns prior to clean-up.


One can apply Bayesian statistics to this.

We must agree that we are not at the start of US-Iran Hostilities.

Nor are we at their final phase.

So we can say that we are at the 25%, 35%, 50%, 65%, 75% point in duration hostilities.

We set the probability of each possibility as 20%.

So far, the hostilities have lasted 40 years.

If we are at 25% point, then 160 more years of hostilities are ahead of us.

If we are at 75% point, we are facing another 13 year until these hostilities are ended.

The average time of hostilities would be (160+ 114+80+62+53)/5 = 77.8 years.

Since 40 years have already past, we are looking at another 38 years.

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