Iran, We Got to Do Something? by Larry C Johnson

Like a Japanese Kabuki dance Washington is in the grasp of War theater. Many pundits and members of Congress are filling the airwaves and offering up quotes demanding action. Demanding retaliation. We have to stand up to Iran. Only one little problem, the intel on the attack on the Saudi oil installations remains sketchy and hidden.

If the missiles were fired from Iranian territory then our intel collection certainly captured the launch or tracked the origin of the drones or missiles used in the attack. So where is it? I have heard from reliable sources that the info is being kept behind a highly classified wall and only those with access to this particular compartmented info can see it.

I only see four possibilities:

1. The missiles/drones were launched from Iran.
2. The missiles/drones were launched from Yemen.
3. The missiles/drones were launched from a maritime platform in the Persian Gulf
4. The missiles/drones were landed from a country that borders Saudi Arabia, such as Iraq.

Hmmm. I do not believe that if we had solid proof the attack came from Iranian territory that the United States would keep that info behind a Top Secret wall. I also doubt that we would try to hide the fact that the missiles/drones came from Yemen.

What if the missiles/drones came out of Iraq? That is something we would try to keep quiet. Having to admit that our "ally" (Iraq) was the origin of the attack brings with it a whole host of foreign policy problems. 

Meanwhile, with scant evidence before the public the drumbeat of hitting Iran remains strong. If this were not so damn dangerous I would be amused by the irony that Trump, who was portrayed by critics as deranged madman who will launch us into a war, is the one trying to exercise caution and restraint.

 

Colonel Lang's earlier piece warned the President that war with Iran will ensure he is only a one term President. He knows what he is talking about. Unless we are committed to a full war with Iran and defeating the Islamic Republic on the battlefield (set aside a trillion dollars and send 500,000 troops for that effort) we should not launch any kind of air strike--e.g., fixed wing, drones or cruise missiles. The amount of force we would deliver would not cripple Iran's capabilities.

This much is certain.   Iran has the weaponry to strike decisively against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies of the Saudis and could severely damage Saudi Arabia's ability to pump oil and purify water. Taking out the Saudi water supply would be more deadly and damaging than anything Iran could do to the Saudi oil infrastructure. 

Then what? The political pressure in the United States to really hit back at Iran would escalate. Are you ready to pay that price? A military strike on Iran also raises the specter of the war spinning out of control and dragging in other countries. It is highly likely that oil exports from the Persian Gulf would be shutdown. That would likely touch off a global economic collapse.

We need to step back and try to define what it is that we are trying to do. Regime change in Iran? Destroy their nuclear program? Weaken Iran's influence in the Middle East? I do not see how U.S.or Saudi airstrikes on a limited number of sensitive Iranian targets would advance any U.S. interest or objective. I am open to your suggestions and analysis.

I have said nothing about cyberwarfare. I have heard some pundits suggest we should hit Iran on that front. Ok. Answer me this--whose economic system is more vulnerable to a cyber attack? The U.S. or Iran? I believe the U.S. has more to lose in such an encounter. Our economic sanctions on Iran have not made them more dependent on computer networks.

And how will Russia, China, Japan, Western Europe and India react. All but Russia rely on oil coming out of the Persian Gulf. What is the worst case for oil disruption? A responsible planner must take that into account in order to ensure the President understands the potential and long lasting ramifications of any "feel" good military strike.

Ever since the Korean War the United States public has been sold the lie that we can fight foreign wars and not have to make any sacrifices or incur any costs at home. What did our 1991 war to oust Iraq from Kuwait accomplish? We got the Iraqis back across the border and then became bogged down in trying to police Iraq for the next decade. How about the 2003 invasion of Iraq? We got rid of Saddam, ignited the ISIS threat and installed Iraqi Shias, who are beholden to Iran, in positions of power. And now we wonder how Iranian influence was able to spread throughout the region. We did that, not the mullahs.

And Afghanistan? I used to wonder how the Brits and the French fought the Hundred Years War. No longer. We seem hell bent on trying to match that record of futile conflict.

Can we defeat Iran and take out the mullahs? Sure, but at what cost? The cost would be enormous and I do not believe the American public are ready to pay the price.

Comments

[turcopolier]

Eric Newhill

You are now a neocon. "Destroy them now." My God, man do you have any proof at all that your neocon assertions have any basis in Fact. What level of risk do you balk at" "1%" like Cheney and Natanyahu?

[The Twisted Genius]

Larry, we agree again. Doesn't seem to happen often, but when it does we should celebrate. Seems this drone/cruise missile strike did some good. The Saudis just offered to stop bombing Yemen if the Houthis stop their strikes. The Houthis are reacting favorably to the offer. Pretty much seals the deal on who struck the Aramco facility. All the talk about Iran doing it seems silly now.

[turcopolier]

TTG

"The Saudis just offered to stop bombing Yemen if the Houthis stop their strikes. The Houthis are reacting favorably to the offer. Pretty much seals the deal on who struck the Aramco facility. All the talk about Iran doing it seems silly now." You mean I got this right? Remarkable.

[JamesT]

Eric Newhill,

What evidence is there that Iran is sponsoring terrorism? What actual terrorist attacks have Iran or her proxies carried out since 1990?

[BABAK MAKKINEJAD]

The Soviet Union was the country that had prosecuted the largest number of war criminals.

There were dedicated units of the Red Army who would follow its advance and interview the residents of the liberated areas and gathered evidence.

In China, neither the Communists nor the Nationalists did anything similar.

[BABAK MAKKINEJAD]

Blessed are the Peace Makers.

[JP Billen]

And yet the Saudis just launched an airstrike on Hodeidah in Yemen less than three hours ago. Shows that the Saudi Foreign Ministry does not know what their Air Force is doing. Or perhaps there are hardliners who are refusing to follow a path to peace?

[different clue]

Perhaps writing things here in the hopes that Tucker Carlson might read them here is the best way to try getting "second thoughts" and "corrective information" to Trump.

[different clue]

It seems very clear to me. Trump can "disclose" that the "discovery" of "new information" makes it strategically and tactically wise at this time to drop all the new sanctions against Iran and unilaterally rejoin the JCPOA as-is/was.

What if the many millions of people who make up Trump's base were themselves to organize a movement to float that exact advice up the chains of command to Trump himself? He and they could all agree to pretend that "Obama" had nothing to do with it and that the name of "Obama" need not be mentioned at all. If it were to play out that way, I would promise not to gloat from the sidelines.
( Not that Trump would even hear me anyway).

[oldman22]

I am reading that the Houthi have said they will stop attacking Saudi and they expect reciprocity. I have NOT read that Saudi have discontinued bombing Yemen. Please post a link TTG.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/houthis-stop-attacks-saudi-arabia-190920183802126.html

[different clue]

And maybe also make them eat GMO-cornfed farm salmon while beholding their enemies eating copper river sockeye salmon in their presence.

[Eric Newhill]

TTG,
Could the attack not serve multiple purposes?

One, being what you note. Another being Iran - via proxy, either purposefully or incidently - demonstrating why going to war against Iran would be a costly decision?

[HK Leo Strauss]

Now that 1st of his class is walking back the war-war, what other parts of the soft underbelly of KSA are exploitable? Iran and her proxies in Yemen and Iraq should double-down.

Change will not come until MBS is gone.

[walrus]

Mr. Newhill, I respectfully suggest that you should look up “the golden rule” which exists in one form or another in all religions, and apply it to your own opinions.

To put that another way; suppose Russia and China developed a super weapon capability that could utterly destroy America while leaving the rest of the planet untouched.. How would you like it if you heard them solemnly debating whether they should permit your continued existence? .........Especially if some of the arguments advanced for your destruction you knew to have no basis in fact, like perhaps some of yours regarding Iran?

[oldman22]

NOT pressure relief valves
look at the pictures
https://the-drive.imgix.net/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1568855743363-damage-2.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&ixlib=js-1.4.1&s=cb291cae1f585b2ed268546080c78579

[Charlie Wilson]

Jesus Christ! An Armenian neocon! Who would have thunk it?

Eric, do you know how many neocons cried the day you were born?

[ISL]

You miss the Colonel's point. If you set the precedent, then the US has a lot of sold weapons we are responsible for which will be used by states and terrorists for which the US has no control. This is the kind of precedent that probably bites the US in the backside.

OTH, why do you think facts have anything to do with whether the US will or will not go to war? Blair noted that they can be fixed as needed.

So why choose a "fact" that can blowback. Why not just say Iran is killing (choose your favorite minority). Its not as if proof will ever be needed. Last I checked those responsible for the Iraq war and its dead and shattered soldiers and civilians are doing find on the TV chat shows and in the halls of power.

[charly]

Is it different because the US is doing it? I don't see any difference between what the US is going to Venezuela, Russia and Iran except that Yemen is in a just war with Saudi Arabia which legitimized it. Can't say the same with the US

[oldman22]

Same reported by Bloomberg, behind a paywall
here is a copy

✕
Bloomberg ›

Houthi Rebels Announce Halt of Drone and Missile Attacks
Mohammed Hatem September 20, 2019

Yemen Shiite Houthi rebel leader Mahdi al-Mashat, president of the ruling political council, announced Friday the halt of drone and ballistic missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, reported the rebel-held Saba news agency.

“We announce the halt of targeting Saudi territories with drones and ballistic and wing missiles and we are waiting on the return of this greeting with the same,” said al-Mashat according to Saba. The announcement comes on the fifth anniversary of the rebel groups seizure of the capital city of Sana’a.

“We reserve the rights to respond in case there is a response to this initiative and we stress that the continuation of the war will not be in the benefit of anyone as continuation of the war would lead to serious developments which we do not want,” he added.

Al-Mashat also called on the Saudi-led coalition to lift the blockade on the port of Hodeidah and reopen Sana’a International Airport.

He also called for a national reconciliation with the Yemeni parties that stand in opposition to the Houthi rebels.
https://outline.com/sHWbUZ

[Andrei Martyanov (aka SmoothieX12)]

And maybe also make them eat GMO-cornfed farm salmon while beholding their enemies eating copper river sockeye salmon in their presence

Your vengefulness, your truly sick mind of a sadist, has no bounds, indeed. ;-)))) Now, I am sure you would suggest an ancient Inquisition tortures by pointy soft pillows or, God forbids, by comfy chair;)))

[Croesus]

Adam Schiff & Gerold Nadler are digging deeper the hole Trump is in.
They're digging all the way to China.
China will be Trump's escape route just as Russia was Obama's.

[Croesus]

Erasing the name, Obama, is one thing.
What to do about "Adelson"? Or is his star falling along with Bibi?

[ted richard]

there is a dimension touched on briefly by andrei here

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2019/09/why-would-you-ask.html

but not really elaborated that needs fleshing out. since the 1980s america by design, greed or plain stupidity has continuously outsourced our industrial base to the point now where we would be hard pressed if not find it impossible to prosecute a real conventional war against anyone capable of hurting us such that our attaining victory fast was unlikely. our ability to produce and deliver war fighting materiel has become circumscribed by our gutted industrial base. these issues are well known by those that need to understand these matters.

there is however another dimension touched upon in andrei's last sentence or 2 which is really the crux of the matter for investors, pension funds and anyone american citizens and residents. in point of fact our currency and bond market have become detached from what once was our collassal and productive industrial base. our currency the world reserve deserved more or less that place. now the only thing holding this reserve currency status upright in the world eyes are 3 factors:

1. the enormous DEPTH of our bond market able to allow the parking of trillions of dollars into LIQUID instruments. no other place on earth is as YET capable of supporting such sums in and out with minimal market fluctuations.

2. the united stated has NEVER cancelled its currency, EVER, a dollar from 1870 is still legal tender and can be spent though no one would do so since its value exceeds a dollar. no other nation has the same record of no F---G over the holders of its currency. in europe governments REGULARLY screw the populace with currency cancel dates. forget the 3rd world.

3. and finally with a gutted industrial base what now holds our dollar reserve status allowing us to buy goods for promises is the PERCEIVED invincibility of the US military whose image is CAREFULLY cultivated in movies and media. the message is mess with us and we'll seal your fate.

point 3 is the real fear in washington. if no one fears us or takes our threats seriously its only points 1 and 2 holding up the dollars status and for how long what with the rise of asia?

once pax americana goes the dollars reserve status will follow with a lag of some unknown amount of time. the world will take some losses and move on. for those living in america it will be nothing less than catastrophic much worse than russia in the 1990's and it will go from normal to a shit storm in a relatively short amount of time with little pre warning.

[catherine]

''If the missiles were fired from Iranian territory then our intel collection certainly captured the launch or tracked the origin of the drones or missiles used in the attack. So where is it? ''

Good question. I have wondered also. Maybe I overestimate US capability but I thought our satellites saw and tracked everything. Somewhere it was claimed that there were imagines of Iran loading some missiles awhile ago.
So why would not firing of missiles be seen?

[Rd]

" Eric Newhill said in reply to turcopolier...

Damaging the flow of oil from the region is a global economic problem. It negatively impacts our friends, enemies and everyone in between. Is the US supporting anyone who is causing externalities of that magnitude? I don't think so.

If Iran wants to play at being the "mouse that roared" using Yemeni proxies and their roaring is going to seriously damage economies across the globe, should they be allowed to continue?"

How could anyone argue with that logic!! damaging world economy deserves a capital punishment! right? How would Mr. Newhill suggest the banksters who caused the 2008 global disaster be dealt with? perhaps a pad on the back?

how does 5% loss of global oil production effecting your daily life? vs the 2008 which damaged livelihood of millions across the globe.. just the number of those who lost their homes and livelihood in US was painful enough. Should the US Mil be summoned to flatten the wall street? necon mindset is a logic hard to argue with!