Iran, We Got to Do Something? by Larry C Johnson

Like a Japanese Kabuki dance Washington is in the grasp of War theater. Many pundits and members of Congress are filling the airwaves and offering up quotes demanding action. Demanding retaliation. We have to stand up to Iran. Only one little problem, the intel on the attack on the Saudi oil installations remains sketchy and hidden.

If the missiles were fired from Iranian territory then our intel collection certainly captured the launch or tracked the origin of the drones or missiles used in the attack. So where is it? I have heard from reliable sources that the info is being kept behind a highly classified wall and only those with access to this particular compartmented info can see it.

I only see four possibilities:

1. The missiles/drones were launched from Iran.
2. The missiles/drones were launched from Yemen.
3. The missiles/drones were launched from a maritime platform in the Persian Gulf
4. The missiles/drones were landed from a country that borders Saudi Arabia, such as Iraq.

Hmmm. I do not believe that if we had solid proof the attack came from Iranian territory that the United States would keep that info behind a Top Secret wall. I also doubt that we would try to hide the fact that the missiles/drones came from Yemen.

What if the missiles/drones came out of Iraq? That is something we would try to keep quiet. Having to admit that our "ally" (Iraq) was the origin of the attack brings with it a whole host of foreign policy problems. 

Meanwhile, with scant evidence before the public the drumbeat of hitting Iran remains strong. If this were not so damn dangerous I would be amused by the irony that Trump, who was portrayed by critics as deranged madman who will launch us into a war, is the one trying to exercise caution and restraint.

 

Colonel Lang's earlier piece warned the President that war with Iran will ensure he is only a one term President. He knows what he is talking about. Unless we are committed to a full war with Iran and defeating the Islamic Republic on the battlefield (set aside a trillion dollars and send 500,000 troops for that effort) we should not launch any kind of air strike--e.g., fixed wing, drones or cruise missiles. The amount of force we would deliver would not cripple Iran's capabilities.

This much is certain.   Iran has the weaponry to strike decisively against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies of the Saudis and could severely damage Saudi Arabia's ability to pump oil and purify water. Taking out the Saudi water supply would be more deadly and damaging than anything Iran could do to the Saudi oil infrastructure. 

Then what? The political pressure in the United States to really hit back at Iran would escalate. Are you ready to pay that price? A military strike on Iran also raises the specter of the war spinning out of control and dragging in other countries. It is highly likely that oil exports from the Persian Gulf would be shutdown. That would likely touch off a global economic collapse.

We need to step back and try to define what it is that we are trying to do. Regime change in Iran? Destroy their nuclear program? Weaken Iran's influence in the Middle East? I do not see how U.S.or Saudi airstrikes on a limited number of sensitive Iranian targets would advance any U.S. interest or objective. I am open to your suggestions and analysis.

I have said nothing about cyberwarfare. I have heard some pundits suggest we should hit Iran on that front. Ok. Answer me this--whose economic system is more vulnerable to a cyber attack? The U.S. or Iran? I believe the U.S. has more to lose in such an encounter. Our economic sanctions on Iran have not made them more dependent on computer networks.

And how will Russia, China, Japan, Western Europe and India react. All but Russia rely on oil coming out of the Persian Gulf. What is the worst case for oil disruption? A responsible planner must take that into account in order to ensure the President understands the potential and long lasting ramifications of any "feel" good military strike.

Ever since the Korean War the United States public has been sold the lie that we can fight foreign wars and not have to make any sacrifices or incur any costs at home. What did our 1991 war to oust Iraq from Kuwait accomplish? We got the Iraqis back across the border and then became bogged down in trying to police Iraq for the next decade. How about the 2003 invasion of Iraq? We got rid of Saddam, ignited the ISIS threat and installed Iraqi Shias, who are beholden to Iran, in positions of power. And now we wonder how Iranian influence was able to spread throughout the region. We did that, not the mullahs.

And Afghanistan? I used to wonder how the Brits and the French fought the Hundred Years War. No longer. We seem hell bent on trying to match that record of futile conflict.

Can we defeat Iran and take out the mullahs? Sure, but at what cost? The cost would be enormous and I do not believe the American public are ready to pay the price.

Comments

[turcopolier]

Iraq? I remain unconvinced that the attack was made by other than Houthi (Ansarallah) Yemeni forces.

[James O'Neill]

Do not underestimate the capacity of the Iranians to wreak enormous damage on US bases in the region. It is also of note in my view that Iran has recently signed a series of major economic deals with Russia and China. Both of the latter countries have already warned Trump from attacking Iran, after the Iranians shot down the US drone. On the other hand, it would be unwise to underestimate the capacity of the Americans to make the wrong decision.

[Bill H]

All of this reminds me of the response from Russia, I think it was their Foreign Minister, "If we had invaded Ukraine, you would not have to be asking if we did it." Yemen says they did it, and I have seen no evidence to the contrary.

[Johnb]

Would the following be an invitation too good to miss for a ‘Party Pooper’ ?

Saudi Arabia has unveiled epic plans to celebrate the country's upcoming 89th National Day, annually marked on Sept. 23. Celebrations will run on for days and feature packed entertainment schedules, concerts, firework shows, and several other exciting events that are set to be held across the kingdom.

To add to the festive vibes, the country has announced a four-day holiday to further enjoy the occasion.

[Christian J Chuba]

Pompeo claimed the attack came from Iran within hours before he could possibly have known that. He is spewing propaganda because the faithful sock puppets in the Media will repeat it. Perhaps he is also so arrogant that he believes his suspicions are as good as facts.

Katie Pavich, 'Pompeo confirms: The Attack on Saudi Oil Fields Was an Act of War From Iran", really, how about 'claims'.

Weeks from now if we conclude that the Yemenis did it but with Iranian designed weapons it will be too late, another plank has been laid in the Iran is Nazi Germany narrative. That is the entire point. I watched Neil Cavuto interview Tulsi Gabbard, he seethed w/rage and his eyes narrowed into tiny dots when she informed him that the Saudis have harmed the U.S. more than Iran; narrative sacred text, cannot be challenged, ever.

I know I'm not saying or discovering anything new. Just hate it enough to mention again, Iran = Nazi Germany means we can commit war crimes against against them when we feel like it and it is good. The most devout Christians, in the highest levels of govt are leading the charge. Bolton said that all of the WH staff (would assume that includes Pence/Pompeo) wanted to bomb Iran and it was Carlson who talked Trump out of it.

[charly]

What about 5. Launched from inside Saudi Arabia by Yemen. I don't think it is that difficult in the Empty Quarter to move much closer to the targets. Maybe it is even possible to ly the cruise-missiles in on their own power, refuel them and than relaunch them at the target

[Erwin]

It was pretty interesting watching Pompeo totally change his tune during that odd Q&A in Saudi Arabia. Personally, I think embarrassment would be the best way to describe it. We'll probably never know exactly how much of the blame lies with the failure of the actual air defense systems themselves, and how much lies with the negligence of the Saudis. Boy would it be interesting to be a fly on the wall during those meetings.

[turcopolier]

yeah right

you are determined to mis-state what I write and then comment on the mis-statement. I do not tolerate people who are merely combative. I have decided to ban you.

[Fred]

"The most devout Christians..." any secular humanists involved? Maybe an atheist or two?

[BABAK MAKKINEJAD]

Could the Houthis launched their attack from Oman?

[turcopolier]

babak

Why would the sultan allow that?

[Eric Newhill]

Larry,
I think that the drones may have been launched from a different (and closer to the target) site than the missiles; which is just a nuance because the attack was obviously well coordinated and that means the same actors were responsible.

Operatives who launched the attack could easily be from one country, yet physically located in another when launching the ordnance.

IMO, the question is not so much where the drones and missiles came from, but who supplied the components?, who built the things? and for what purpose?. That will have to be analyzed, of course, and it may well point back to Iran. So the next real question is, if Iran was involved at some level, does that level of involvement require a response? And what kind of response?

So far Trump is indicating that the response, regardless of level of involvement, should not be war. Let the Democrats and other swamp dwellers make the call for war. It will be just another nail in their 2020 coffin.

[BABAK MAKKINEJAD]

Because Saudi Arabia is a threat to Oman if Houthis are defeated.

[turcopolier]

babak

Why? Because they are Ibadhis?

[BABAK MAKKINEJAD]

That too but more of the usual game among states, kings, and potentates.

How would the Kingdom of Ibadhis benefit from the increase in power and prestige of the Kingdom of Salafis?

The 4 men who attacked that military parade in Ahwaz were initially Shia and were seduced by the Jihadists.

How much easier it would be to seduce the Ibadhis?

[glupi]

Much depends on the response, as this Saudi drama already has a spill-over effect.

An Ukranian boasted that the Ukranian patriots can easily take down Russia's Kaliningrad air defense systems and wreak havoc there.

With the new Ukranian president seen by some as too peaceful and ready to capitulate before Russia, some hot heads just may try and the victim may feel justified to follow the US example

[turcopolier]

Eric Newhill

If some country to which the US supplies the kind of support that you describe uses it, is the US responsible? You are conveniently ignoring the fact that SA/UAE are at war with Ansarallh/Loyalist Yemeni forces. The Saudi/UAE side has been bombing the p--s out of the Yemeni population for years. Civilian death are estimated by the UN at 91,000. Why would the Yemeni side not use whatever weapons are available to them against SA?

[Andrei Martyanov (aka SmoothieX12)]

The main issue here, if to imagine that the United States decides to proceed with attack on Iran, is the fact that everyone knows that the opinion on this strike will be formed within first 24-48 hours. If this attack sees a large number of US missiles shot down, and the probability of this is very high, forget any aircraft, let alone something like F-35 shot down, we will have on our hands a massive political crisis within the United States. I will abstain from describing Iranian retaliation on KSA with it anemic (yes, let's settle on this term--anemic) air defense. Consequences will be massive. As an additional point: Tehran does have a viable air defense. It is not a system such as that of Yugoslavia in 1999, let alone Iraqi ancient one. This one is capable of doing some damage even in a highly dense EW environment.

[ex PFC Chuck]

Or could they have launched the attack from within Saudi territory?

[Andrei Martyanov (aka SmoothieX12)]

I think embarrassment would be the best way to describe it

The whole failure of both PAC-2 and PAC-3 which were on duty and oil processing facility had a complete radar coverage with a good percent of redundancy over it has been already discussed professionally in Russia, for sure. It is a whopping failure, even when allowances are made for traditional Saudi ineptness. Hence, today this statement, which, of course was laughed at.

https://breakingdefense.com/2019/09/target-kaliningrad-eucom-puts-putin-on-notice/

It is pure self-medicating. Russian MO and even PM already responded to this delirium but it is not worth even discussing it. What we may expect is Saudis deciding to buy S-300 PMU2 and S-400. Prince called Putin the same day of attacks.

[John Merryman.]

In some countries and at some points in time, failure on the battlefield meant execution. Maybe Trump should make the ones pushing for war promise that if they are wrong, they would accept a firing squad and put it in writing. I bet that would quiet the peanut gallery.

[Flavius]

"So far Trump is indicating that the response, regardless of level of involvement, should not be war. Let the Democrats and other swamp dwellers make the call for war. It will be just another nail in their 2020 coffin."

Precisely. But finding like thinking appointments amidst the establishment swamp dwellers who can distinguish US interests from Saudi interests, or Israeli interests, has been Trump's abiding problem from the beginning.
I fail to understand how an Act of War, so called by Pompeo, against Saudi Arabia is in any sense an act of war against the US and it is incompetent of Pompeo to plant that implication in the public domain, perhaps even criminal. That we sell the Saudis their weapons no more binds us to their defense than Iran is bound to the Houthi Yemeni by facilitating their weaponry. Selling weapons may be sensible and in one's interests, or stupid and against one's interests, but it does not make the buyer of those weapons one's ally.
If it is in our interests to keep the Straights of Hormuz open, it is easily accomplished by discontinuing the immoral policy of attempting to choke the economic life out of Iran. With 20 years of rubble in the rear view mirror, only a fat comfortable swamp dwelling neo-con would be so obtuse as not to recognize there would be blowback and unintended consequences from that project.

[prawnik]

Absolutely. Houthis have been regularly ambushing patrols inside Saudi territory.

[prawnik]

Bread. Circuses.

[prawnik]

I don't think Pompeo cares. He wants a stick to beat Iran with, not Yemen, so blaming the Yemenis for fighting back simply will not do.