"If you hit them, they will behave ..." - the neocons' song.

I have long puzzled over the question of why the neocons; Lindsey Graham, the late John McCain (be brave Lindsey!), Jack Keane, Bolton, Pompeo, etc., etc., ad nauseam,  cling so firmly to the idea of striking Iran a hard blow.

Today I heard the reason voiced on the Sunday newsies by several of the Faithful.  "If you punish the Iranians they will behave" was the refrain.  "They know they would lose to the US and so would be afraid to go to war with us."  This delusion is a variation of the Rational Actor Model.  This poly sci inspired model is based on the false premise that everyone, everywhere functions on the basis of the same priorities and values.  This is an untruth.  For example, a willingness to die for one's country is not a universally shared attitude.  Nor is, a belief in an almighty God who dictates one's duty in this world.  A god in whom the Muslims actually believe as expressed in the shahada (testimony) depicted above.

So, pilgrims, the neocons believe that if the Iranians are punished like children who are spanked for picking their noses, they will recognize the error of their ways and the country will accept the will of the US and more importantly of the Zionists who are IMO the source of such a belief.  Zionism seeks a ME pacified with regard to the existence and hegemony of the Jewish State. 

To that end the Zionists have followed a relentless practice of punishing their opponents in order to bring them to heel.  That has never worked for them but they persist in this "strategery" and have clearly convinced a critical number of movers and shakers in the US to follow their lead.  pl

Comments

[JerseyJeffersonian]

Israeli ROI is optimal; use other peoples' kids for their goals. Fantastic returns! No risk! Not again.

[catherine]

''At the same time make it known that if any country demonstrates that it has become an active existential threat to Israel, then the US will reduce it/it's forces to rubble. ''

I am mystified by your fondness for Israel. Are you American? Jewish?, Christian Zionist? per chance?
I am surprised also that while you are smart enough to read this site with its expert host and many other knowledgeable people that you think the US should support Israel to begin with.
I cant think of any other welfare client country of ours that has caused us as much trouble as Israel both in our political system and the ME. And also degraded the US reputation around the world because of our enabling what is 'rouge' state.

I know that certain segments espouse that the US 'owes' it to the Jews to support Israel because of the holocaust. In fact I have heard some proclaim that Americans have a 'moral obligation' to support Israel because it is a Jewish state.
Imo both the Jews and Israel owe the US (and all the allies), we don't owe them.

I do agree with you here..."However, if Israel, with no real provocation, attacks someone bigger than it can handle, then it must be left to suffer the consequences.''

'If'it includes not furnishing Israel with weapons or jet fuel from American refineries as we have done in their attacks on Lebanon and Gaza. I would also classify Israel's bombings in Syria and lately Iraq and its drones hitting areas in Lebanon as 'provocation' and any response by them would then not be considered 'attacking Israel first'.

[Snakepit]

As long as it isn't hope nd change.

[ISL]

BP,

What evidence do you have the the Chinese communists are expansionist? Haven't seen China overthrowing any other nations' govt to change it to become Chinese communist.....

If by expansionist, you mean offering better economic deals than the US can, that is competition.

In any case, most neocons seem more measured than Dr. Strangelove. A very low bar that leaves lots of room for disaster.

[Eric Newhill]

Blue Peakock,
It's just the way it is.

Just as Muslims are going to think and do things because they're Muslim, Jews/Israel/Jerusalem are going to be important to those of the Judeo-Christian faiths.

What? Only Muslims get sympathy and understanding around here?

And then there's the social justice idea that something has to be done to protect Israeli Jews from another holocaust.

Maybe things are changing. You can vote for more people like the freshman Democrats e.g. Ilhan Omar and the Black caucus. They would be very happy to break ties with Israel and watch her burn.

Also you can declare all religions except Islam to be false and not worthy of respect and all of their believers to be deluded. Good luck with that.

Personally, I find the idea that one group of people has the correct and true knowledge of God and His Will to be arrogance and belligerence in the extreme and antithetical to peace and spiritual development, but I don't make rules on this big blue people farm.

[CK]

People with no love. We pigeonhole them as socio/psycho paths or politicians.

[CK]

Of course our relationship with KSA is based on money. US dollars which are what the Saudis take for their oil. We print paper promises and get real goods and services which we otherwise could not afford. Iran and Russia recently announced that they will be trading in national currencies not dollars. China is likewise. Iran Russia and China have already announced alternatives to the US SWIFT system which means that announced sanctions become less and less relevant. It is indeed all about money, should the KSA ever stop using the US dollar that huge bill represented by all those legal tender dollars comes back to buy up whatever is of value left in the USA.

[Barbara Ann]

Eric

Your concern for Israel's existence (and not Iran's) is perplexing. It is also misplaced I think. Do you not believe that Israel's substantial nuclear arsenal is enough to deter an "existential" threat and if not why not? Your argument sounds mightily similar to the Zionist hawks' doctrine of preemptive war - with the US in the van. I reject this view utterly.

There will never be peace in the region until Israel is forced to make peace with its neighbors. And it will never do that while it believes the US is on hand to destroy its enemies at will. Trump's best strategy to make peace in the ME would be to remove unconditional support for Israel. I strongly suspect he knows this, but his room for maneuver is limited at present.

[Barbara Ann]

Yes, who will be wearing the Plastic Keys to Paradise in this war? Anyone who can get near an American anywhere in the ME I would have thought.

[Eric Newhill]

Barbara Ann,
I guess I'm not expressing myself clearly.

I'm being realistic. Support for Israel is never going to go away because of social justice for Jews post Holocaust and because of Judeo Christian religious beliefs. So we have to work within that structure.

I'm suggesting that within that structure we should protect Israel from existential threats that they cannot handle on their own - real threats, should they arise However, we should not buy into every paranoid scheme they concoct, which includes preemptive strikes for low threat probabilities.

If Israel embarks on an aggressive course of action, unprovoked, and finds itself in big trouble, then they can survive or lose on their own. This should be made clear to them.

It seems to me the best of all worlds given reality.

To me personally, Israel means no more than Iran, or the UK, or France, or Tahiti.

Everyone wants to acknowledge and respect Islam, but overlooks the same for Judeo/Christian.

Personally, I think all of those religions are believing in nonsense stories. I don't think that the One True God gave an infallible creed to a guy In a cave anymore than to a guy on top of a mountain. I don't think that a mullah has any more clue as to the nature of God than does the Pope. It's ludicrous to think any of that is true, let alone to get all agitated over it and kill people. But lots of people do. They call it "faith", but I that's not what I think faith is. Why people can't accept that these religions are, hopefully and at best, just different starting paths to realizing true spiritual development and social cohesion escapes me entirely, but that's the way it is. Again, IMO, we have to work within that structure.

[Vegetius]

Judeo-Christian faiths?

[eakens]

If you have more than one kid I feel sorry for the one(s) you love less

[prawnik]

That logic is mere a pretext for the neocons to get the war they so crave.

[oldman22]

From his many years at MI6 and as UK diplomat, Alastair Crooke probably knows as much as anyone about this:
"The US is ‘blowing smoke’ about launch sites mainly to divert from the very obvious (but embarrassing) fact that the raining down of missiles on Abqaiq, primordially owes to the Saudi war on Yemen (supported unreservedly by Trump)."

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/09/23/a-precision-strike-on-us-credibility-shattering-us-paradigm/

[blue peacock]

Tibet was annexed militarily. They're now using the classic first step of using the facade of BRI "investments" to acquire for all intents & purposes "sovereign" territory around the world.

"Magufuli has alleged that the China has presented “exploitative and awkward” terms in exchange for financing. Chinese financiers set “tough conditions that can only be accepted by mad people,” Magufuli told local media.

“They told us once they build the port, there should be no other port to be built all the way from Tanga to Mtwara south,” Magufuli told a delegation of business people at State House in Dar es Salaam on June 14.

“They want us to give them a guarantee of 33 years and a lease of 99 years, and we should not question whoever comes to invest there once the port is operational. They want to take the land as their own but we have to compensate them for drilling construction of that port,” he said."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/tanzania-president-terms-bri-port-project-exploitative/articleshow/70109612.cms

They have already acquired a major port in Sri Lanka where the Sri Lankan government has no authority. Chinese military provide security. They can do whatever they want with the port including use for military purposes.

You may say it is just commercial competition. No matter how it is labeled the CCP is expanding their footprint globally. My question is why are the neocons ignoring them?

[Oscar Peterson]

When you look at these inept and weak Saudis, you really wonder how Caliph Umar did it back in the day.

[turcopolier]

OP

'Umar was an Arabian but not a SAUDI Arabian.

[Oscar Peterson]

You failed to answer Barbara Ann's questions.

With Israel possessing a first and ,almost certainly, a second strike capability, what existential threats are you talking about that Israel is not postured to deal with?

Also, don't know what you mean by "Judeo-Christian," a phrase you seem to love.

Judaism is Judaism and Christianity is a Judeo-Hellenic fusion (and thank God for the Hellenic parts.) Do you ever use the term Judeo-Islamic? Or Islamo-Christian/Christo-Islamic (see the discussion below about Jesus returning at the right hand of the Hidden Imam at the end of days in 12er Shiism.) If not, why not?

[Oscar Peterson]

I'm sorry but what is the practical difference between "a face-saving lie meant to evade a war while still looking tough" and "getting cold feet"?

[Barbara Ann]

I do not think that we have to accept the structure of unconditional support for Israel as permanent Eric. The Squad are a sign that bipartisan consensus in this respect may not always be a given. The more the Zionists abuse US support for Israel - and boy have they - the more likely it is that fissures will emerge that call its unconditional nature into question. A war of choice with Iran would open a chasm.

The lessons of the Holocaust and the particular suffering of the Jewish people must never be forgotten. But the historic persecution of the Jews does not give Israel the right to behave any way it likes. Moreover, as I have said here in the past, Israel's policy of labeling all criticism leveled against it as "antisemitic" runs the risk of ultimately being spectacularly counterproductive in the worst possible way.

Israeli security can best be safeguarded by it being encouraged, to a lesser or greater degree, to make peace with its neighbors. With its presence in Syria and close relations with all parties, Russia is in an excellent position to take over the mantle of security guarantor. This should (and may) be Trump's policy.

[Oscar Peterson]

"the Iranians are religious fanatics"

They're not the ones who've taken others' land because "God gave it to them."

[catherine]

'' I guess I'm not expressing myself clearly''

Your obfuscation is quite clear. I think we understand perfectly now.

[blue peacock]

"It's just the way it is."

I assume that you believe that our self-imposed obligation to be the military wing of the Israeli state will continue at least for the foreseeable future, no matter if it is in our interests or not.

I'm curious if this is because of a real heartfelt "guilt" because of the holocaust which I wonder why since we were the liberators not the perpetrators or because the zionists figured out how to manipulate our political and media system better than anyone else or there was exploitation of some religious beliefs held by some Americans?

FDR turned away Jewish refugees. Did Ike have a policy of using our military to alleviate any perceived threat the Zionist state may have believed it faced? Clearly Lyndon Johnson felt it was more important to protect Israel than our sailors on the USS Liberty. When was the turning point that we became completely obsequious to zionist interests?

[Eric Newhill]

Blue Peacock,
IMO it's what you say + Christians religious beliefs about Israel and the second coming and the Old Testament stating that the Jews are God's chosen people.

[Eric Newhill]

Barbara Ann,
I guess a lot of people here ignore Col Lang's reminders that analysis is not advocacy. Again, I'm just calling thing as I see them.

I think nuclear weapons are reserved for the most extreme crises. No one wants to use them. Once the nukes start flying, we are all in big trouble.

You can talk about how things "should" be all you want. It's now how they are/reality.