« Another Operation Idlib Dawn Update - TTG | Main | Do the Brits and the French eat BBQ? »

01 September 2019

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

stumpy

Given this discussion, it throws a bit more weight on the side of the recent air strikes by IAF in Iraq and Lebanon as an initial nibble, weighing responses from various parties in order to adjust course.

I'm quite confident that there are enough munitions that are deliverable from unmanned systems to waste Hizbulla's defenses.

The question to be weighed is whether Hizbullah can count on Israel's uncertainty as a deterrent to a massive attack against Lebanon. The Samson effect cuts both ways if Iran jumps in. Unless tptb decide to go with theatre-level weaponry, what is left of Israel even if Iran and Lebanon are squashed?

Even more interesting, if Trump jumps in with his typically flaccid braggadocio, does his action endanger Israel by falling short of the killer punch?

turcopolier

stumpy

"I'm quite confident that there are enough munitions that are deliverable from unmanned systems to waste Hizbullah's defenses. " Do you have any qualifications with which to make such a judgment? What unmanned weapons so you mean?

turcopolier

CK

they lack the sealift or airlift for those kinds of envelopments. Their bewt bet is t swing wide to the right and try to come in from Syria. Heh! Heh! They should try that one.

turcopolier

charly

i am completely opposed to that. the jihadis should be killed to the last scumbag.

stumpy

Sir, cruise missiles and drones. I read.

catherine

''undeserved braggadocio is a common trait one finds in a sub group of israelis. having lived in countries in africa, europe and south america and having run into quite a few israelis along the way, cocky arrogance seems to be a character trait they learn young and never outgrow.''

I agree. They are like monkeys beating their chest and pretending to be big Silverbacks.

But Israelis are encouraged to be too big for their britches by our elected public servants...

''I think it is important in the 21st century to send the message that if youa are trying to destroy iarael you will have to go thru us and it will not turn out well for you''....Lindsey Graham

''I have said to people when they ask me, If this Capitol crumbled to the ground, the one thing that would remain would be our commitment to our Israel aid, I don’t even call it our aid, our cooperation with Israel. That’s fundamental to who we are.''........Nancy Pelosi

'' As I have said so often, Israel’s survival and success is and must be a central tenet of U.S. foreign policy. Some believe the US should be even handed in our Israel ME policy. I do not''.......Steny Hoyer

More US money will flow to Israel

"Israel in talks with
US for aid in case
of existential threat "
- report
The Jerusalem Post

catherine

jdledell

Do you think Netanyahu will be elected? He seems desperate.
And what will happen if he isn't?

ISL

Walrus,

Not just air defense, but also EW coverage over Lebanon. Its one thing for an airplane or two to operate in Lebanon on a pop up basis, completely another for sustained operations if Syria and or Russia creates the type of EW environment that is in place over Syria (which gives the US pause in its missions).

That said, hubris and F-35 propaganda (from Lockheed Martin) about its performance, could lead Israel to overplay its hand. The complete failure of the Trump's Tomahawk volley into Syria provided a window into how EW has developed in the last decades (EW advances much faster than missiles - one is mostly hardware and one is mostly software) while our peers have been preparing for when the US stopped chasing jihadis and technicals across the sand and turned its bellicosity in their direction.

Personally, I think the horse already left the barn.

anon

Where are the Hezbollah pics of the destroyed vehicle.They would have made great propaganda unless of course the trophy system was used and the vechile was bait.A deterence of the anti tank missiles who would surely have a signicant effect on morale.They say artillery responded to the kornet attack because the trophy system can relay the launch position to artillery.

Trophy system. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)

jdledell

Yes, Likud led my Netanyahu will garner the most seats in the Knesset. My guess is somewhere in the 33-34 seat range. His promise to annex Jewish areas in the West Bank is designed to get the Likud more right wing votes but I think he is kidding himself. The right wingers are going to vote for tried and true right wing parties like Bennett's Jewish Home party. I suspect he will be able to form a coalition by including right wing parties by promising a quick annexation of Area C of the West Bank, about 60% of the land. This will make life for the remaining Palestinians extremely difficult as Israeli check points dot the West Bank making travel and economic viability between Palestinian towns difficult to impossible. Unfortunately, a Two State solution has lost a majority of Jewish support. The Jews in the area believe that Trump will strongly support such an annexation and institute support for Israel economically when much of the rest of the world ressts such a move politicaly and economically. The Trump Peace Plan for the area is strictly getting Arab countries to fund a build up of the Palestinian economy with absolute no rights or citizenship for West Bank Palestinians.

ISL

stumpy, If Israeli saturation bombing of Lebanon achieved nothing in 2006 (except defeat), why exactly do you argue it will have an effect this time?

Moreover, there likely will be a highly complex EW environment, with which Israel has no experience. Did you notice at all what happened to the US Tomahawk volley? Those missiles you admire or worship (missiles - what a novel idea), without IDF on the ground for spotters and to consolidate gains (and die) will push dirt.

Try and name ANY case where air power has been decisive politically without ground forces. You cant for a reason.

CK

Funnel the attackers into the cauldron. Then just decided to leave a retreat exit available or not.
One of the more interesting things that has been hinted at over the last year is that FRS has the capability to spoof as well as shut down the GPS system. Imagine a GPS spoof that tells the IDF missiles that they are 150 km to far north.
To update a quote from Field Marshall Generalissimo Alexander Suvorov: "The bullet is a mad thing; only the bayonet knows what it is about," an accurate assessment in the 1840's when that was writ; smooth bore muskets and 90 second reload times versus three foot of cold steel and troopers who were trained in its use. Today it would be that the missile is a mad thing and only the bullet knows what it is about. The more things change the more they look exactly alike.

CK

Some days the finger types, the eyes read and the brain farts simultaneously. The Suvorov quote was from his Science of Winning and was written in the 1780s. He died in 1800.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

February 2021

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28            
Blog powered by Typepad