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01 September 2019

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plantman

Nasrallah has already said that Hezbollah will retaliate for last week's drone attacks, so there will be a response.

The question is--What will Bibi do afterwards??

This isn't 2006 when Hezbollah was just developing its missile arsenal. In 2019, they are fully-armed and ready to go. Check out this excerpt from a WA Post article in 2016---

Ten years ago, Hezbollah fired 4,000 short-range, relatively crude rockets at Israel, about 100 a day, killing some 50 Israeli civilians. Today, the group has 100,000 rockets, including thousands of more accurate mid-range weapons with larger warheads capable of striking anywhere in Israel, including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, according to Israeli army commanders and military analysts in Israel and Lebanon...


Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah rockets could strike ammonia plants at the port in Haifa in any future fight, saying that the damage would be equivalent to an atomic bomb and could lead to the deaths of 800,000 people....

“Haifa is just one of many examples,” Nasrallah said. “The leaders of Israel understand that the resistance has the ability to cover the entirety of occupied Palestine with missiles. We must keep this capability because it acts as a deterrent for the third Lebanon war.” WA Post, 2016

Unfortunately, Nasrallah needs to demonstrate to Israel's hawkish leaders that-- from now on-- their will be consequences for Israel's attacks.

Deterrents may be an imperfect solution, but-- given the circumstances--they are the best solution available.

J

Colonel,

Hasn't Israel used the Samson option as a psychological warfare tool against both our U.S. and their perceived Arab enemies.

For fear of the Samson option, we the U.S. intervene when we should stay out of it and let the Israelis get their noses bloodied.

The IDF is not a professional military by any standards, they are a IMO a bunch of thugs in a uniform who prey on unarmed innocent old women and men who they either head butt with the stock of their weapons, or shoot innocent 18 year old nurses trying to render aid to those they shot behind their reinforced barricades. Tabbouleh Line I showed they have no stomach for real combat. I expect no less the same when they go against the Tabbouleh Line II.

Jack

Sir

I’m willing to wager that Trump will order the US military to enter that war on the side of Bibi.

IMO, Bibi knows Trump is weak to zionist & neocon instigated media hysteria. This will be his “war president” moment. He’ll have the full backing of Chuckie and Nancy and the rest of the Congressional crew as AIPAC calls in their check. I recall well in the heat of the Russia Collusion media hysteria when he ordered the missile strike in Syria how the media were calling it his presidential moment.

I believe Bibi for his own domestic political reasons as well as knowing that Trump is a fully bought and paid for Zionist asset has been probing what he can instigate that will cause the US to do his work. My question to this committee of military experts is what will this war look like? How will Syria and Iran respond, since both have an obligation to Hezbollah? And what will Putin do with his forces in the middle of a war zone?

ex PFC Chuck

Per Elijah Magnier's tweets it appears Hizbollah has recently retaliated in a tit-for-tat way. H claims there were casualties but Bibi denies it, which EM taks as a signal that Israel wants to deescalate.
https://twitter.com/ejmalrai

eakens

A part of me still thinks that Trump would like nothing better than Israel to get itself into a war it can’t get out of. And if he does it, it will be done soon since his re-election isn’t guaranteed

walrus

I wonder if the Israeli Government has decided that time is not on their side, leading to a decision to act now?

The game changer for Israel would be the resolution of the Syrian civil war.

That would result in a battle hardened and capable SAA being free to operate along the Southern border and on the flank of any Israeli incursion into Lebanon.

Then there is the possibility of Syria extending its air defence network to include Lebanon.

Then there is the question of money to be made in reconstructing Syria, building transport infrastructure for the Iran to Mediterranean leg of OBOR as well as perhaps other projects- this economic activity increases the political power of Syria, Iran, Lebanon and China.

All in All, perhaps Bibi has decided to go now.

blue peacock

Col. Lang

Is there any circumstance that you see where the US will not get militarily involved if thousands are killed in Israel even if it is in response to an Israeli provocation?

It would seem that the pressure on any US president would be immense. Hezbollah after all has been demonized for so long as an Islamic terrorist organization. The support for military intervention here would be universal and bipartisan. And the ziocon media would be in full on escalation propaganda mode showing images of Israeli kids in rubble and malevolent images of the evil Nasrallah.

The likely only opposition voices would be Ron Paul, Pat Buchanan and Tulsi Gabbard and they will be maligned quickly as irrelevant.

jdledell

If the IDF general command has any say in the matter they are telling Bibi - DO NOT wage a total war in Lebanon. The only way Israel can keep Hezballah defanged is to occupy most of Lebanon - something the IDF and it reliance on reserve soldiers is NOT equiped to do except for a very short time. Southern Lebanon is crisscrossed with hundreds of tunnels, an issue where IAF saturation bombing proved to be ineffective. The IDF and their tanks were hit with withering fire from the rear and IDF operational discipline broke down quickly. There is no cohesion between the Professional soldiers in the IDF and the reservists and this makes large scale operations very difficult. Among the professional IDF, you would be hard pressed to find a single soldier who wants to fight Hezballah again.

I think Trump would gladly join Israel in a war in Lebanon and that would turn the tide in Israel's favor temporarily. However, Hezballah would not give a moments peace to any Israeli or U.S. soldier on the ground in Lebanon and the entire population of Lebanon would support Hezballah to throw the invaders out of the country. It would be a bloody occupation for however long it lasted.

ted richard

undeserved braggadocio is a common trait one finds in a sub group of israelis. having lived in countries in africa, europe and south america and having run into quite a few israelis along the way, cocky arrogance seems to be a character trait they learn young and never outgrow.

no idea why nor do i care one way or the other, only to note pl is right they will need all the luck they can get and bullshit repeated by them on cnn won't get the job done nor will it in 2019 fool any one (as it might have 10 years ago) least of all hezbollah.

its not 2006 and arguably they are not qualitatively any stronger than they were then. the same can not be said of hezbollah.

it seems to be a cultural trait one sees in both faltering empires and nation state used to being on top, they are the ones doing the telling while others do the listening.

over reach, over extension, over indebtedness and an over blown sense of ones self estimation all while the ground underneath has shifted away. you see it in bolton, pompeo, bibi and katz.

Fred

So the IDF has to penetrate the first line, which they barely managed the first time, then they face a second line of prepared defenses? How much recent combat experience do they have? If I recall correctly at least some of the Lebanese have served in Syria in one capacity or another. It certainly wasn't West Bank occupation duty.

Col. B. Bunny

Trump will do as Sheldon and Bibi command.

ISL

Dear Colonel,

It seems as if Israel is ready to re-fight the last war, and Hezbollah has prepared for the next. More importantly, if war is politics by other means, I see no clear Israeli political objectives nor any indication as to why they think a do over of 2006 will lead to a better outcome.

Absent contributing an occupation force for Lebanon, what would US contribute? Bombing targets in Lebanon? Israel will have taken out all significant targets in a few days and long term bombing changes little. I am sure Bolton is whispering in Trumps ear that Hezbollah will surrender once the might of the US enters the fray.

turcopolier

fred

The original Tabouleh line was abandoned after 2006 because the UN got in its way. The Hizbullah has done a great deal of fighting in Syria. I thought I made that clear.

Johnb

Why would the IDF choose to head butted the defensive Tabouleh Line again, the Wehrmacht opted to bypass entirely the Maginot line and were in Paris in how many days.

milomilo

i wonder if hez 2019 have better air defense capabilities to shot down IAF jets , or ground launched cruise missiles targetting IAF airfields ? or Drone swarms targetting IDF support troops / logistics

it's been 13 years since 2006 and the IDF ground force still too reliant on IAF.

Snakepit

Trump has not started any new wars during his administration and he probably wants to keep it that way. Bebi needs a war to be reelected but it doesn't help Trump. He wants to be reelected too.

Mathias Alexander

The support would be bipartisan but would it be universal?
Tulsi Gabbard will fold like a cheap suit.

plantman

According to South Front, Hezbollah has struck back at Israel in Galilee:

"In the afternoon of September 1, Hezbollah fighters destroyed a military vehicle of the Israeli military with an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) near Avivim military post in Upper Galilee.

The Lebanese group said that the attack was carried out by a unit named after Hassan al-Zabib and Yasser Dahir, two of the group’s fighters who were killed in Israeli airstrikes on the Syrian capital, Damascus, last week.

Hezbollah said that several Israeli soldiers were killed or injured in the ATGM strike. However, this is yet to be confirmed....

A day earlier, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah vowed to respond to the Beirut drone attack and to the Israeli airstrikes on Damascus.

The situation along the separation line between Lebanon and Israel will likely escalate further in the upcoming few hours."
https://southfront.org/hezbollah-strikes-back-destroy-israeli-military-vehicle-in-upper-galilee/

IMO, Hezbollah had no choice but to retaliate.

turcopolier

JohnB

Not the same thing. The German objective was the total defeat of France. The IDF would want to cripple Hizbullah and split the Lebanese from them.

jdledell

One of my nephews is an F-16 pilot in the IAF and there is significant conerns about Hezballah's limited air defense capabilities. Israeli intelligence on Hezballah's capabililiies and location is very poor. The IAF has lost several planes in Syria in recent years and are loath to fly over Lebanon proper. The usual tactic is for the IAF planes to fly out to sea and fire missiles from there. Without good intelligence the IAF bombing runs usually end up churning up a lot of dirt.

blue peacock

Universal means the majority across all geographies from the two coasts to the mid-west and south. The people have been conditioned for decades that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization.

The only way to judge a person is how they acted in the past under similar conditions. Tulsi has shown courage of conviction in the past in opposing the very popular Obama's Syria policy of supporting & arming Al Qaeda when it was not popular to do that and she's paying for it by being labeled an Assad apologist among the establishment. And resigning from the DNC to endorse Bernie.

Now of course you are entitled to your own opinion which doesn't have to be based on any facts.

Erwin

Hah! And the IDF is certainly no Wehrmacht - not even close!

CK

What path does the IDF take to bypass the Tabouleh line? The one through the Med or the one through Syria? Or can we expect an airborne assault on Beirut that goes over the line?
Geography is a "problematic" thing.

charly

A war with Israel could allow SAA to negotiate a peace deal with AQ and consorts without needing to conquer the whole of Idlib. Could even allow SDF to come in from the cold.


ps. The peace deal for AQ would be more a capitulation with dignity.

Fred

Johnb,

So they are going to go full Iwo Jima and attack by sea or swing around and invade across Syria? They don't have the sea lift for the former and will involve a couple other countries in their war doing the latter. How many allies are they going to be able to call in on an unprovoked war everyone on Earth knows they want the US to win for them?

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