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14 September 2019

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JerseyJeffersonian

Well, as Theodore Roosevelt was reported to say, "It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog"

Fred

There are some commercial cargo drones in operation, or at least development, which could do this. Commercial guidance system acroding to Jane's. A 2,000lb payload, which could be lowered to extend the range. The one in the video doesn't look like much more than a cardboard box to give areodynamics to the frame and cargo. For a one-way trip something like this would be easy. The WWI aircraft weren't much more than this.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/yates-to-start-full-rate-production-of-900kg-cargo-g-460839/
https://www.janes.com/article/91181/dsei-2019-silent-arrow-cargo-delivery-uav-unveiled
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=125&v=1Lt83j6v8xE

I don't see why a static launch from a balloon wouldn't work as well as the helicopter shown in the video.

walrus

I would think GPS/GLONASS/GALILEO is accurate enough for delivery to within about a 30 feet radius circle. The electronics are nothing special these days.

Launching would probably be via a rail with some sort of rocket booster maybe powered by an rpg motor or some sort of slow burn propellant (maybe from arty or mortar rounds?).

My WAG is that the speed of this thing is maybe no more than 100 - 150 mph and it’s powered by a piston engine burning maybe 10 litres per hour (another WAG) for 6 hours that means about 100 lbs of fuel (60 x .72 x 2.2). if the motor weighs about 25 lb, and allow about the same for a fibreglass airframe, we get a weight less warhead of about 150 - 170 lb for a still air range of about 600 statute miles. Now add about 50 lb of explosive as a payload with some form of impact fuse and we have about a 220lb drone with a range of 600 miles that is too small and slow to be noticed.

I can’t imagine any precision guidance/armour piercing sophisticated munitions are used, all you would need for a fire is a lucky round to hit one of CBI’s finest tanks and boom - 10 million litres of flaming product.

I would imagine our intelligence services have a much better idea than my guess and would be concerned that other “entrepreneurs “ don’t copy the Houthi.

Our colleague, “Nuff said” suggested the ingredients were smuggled in and the Houthi build them themselves. That suggests they are building and launching in salvos as fast as they can.

It would be one heck of a SF mission to find their factory or factories, and stop this.

ISL

Dear Colonel, Indeed, and a black swan event.

The global economy was already teetering - $100 bbl likely will accelerate the business cycle (inverted yield curve) into recession (or worse - interest rate are zero/negative leaving central banks no good tools, debt is at new highs, too big to fail banks are bigger, etc., etc. etc.).

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-fire-after-drone-strike-hits-worlds-largest-oil-processing-facility-saudi

Can Saudi Arabia change course - admit they lost and sue for peace - without a (likely time-consuming) leadership change? MBS was quite effective at neutralizing potential opponents.

Lyttennburgh

Mashallah! Top level humiliation for Yahoodi Arabia's munafiqun

turcopolier

walrus

Pompey claims that Iran launched the strike It is about 200 to 300 mile to the Gulf from Buraydah and another 100 miles across the Gulf.

Bobo

Well we certainly will see if the crude oil we have been storing in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the past 30+ years has value in the weeks to come. Should make a good profit for the USA and help ease the situation.
Expect that Aramco will be back to full capacity in less than 30 days.

turcopolier

Bobo

Yes, until the next Yemeni attacks.

Jack

Yes, Sir.

Pompeus claims Iran dunnit. And Ms. Lindsey wants US retaliation. And Trump wants “Mutual Defense” treaty with Bibi.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1172887121704706048?s=21

https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1172913309697433601?s=21

“Mutual Defense” like Israel has the capacity and inclination to come to our defense in case of attack by a nuclear power? Lol! What continues to amaze is how there’s no push back from those with responsibility for US national interest. Just like so few calling out the CCP Fifth Column.

Mk-ec

I wonder how much of this is actually Iran enforcing it's statement " if we can't export our oil no one in the region will" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-idUSKBN1O30MI

The region has seen the rise of Iran in the past years - with augmented presence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. How much of this stems directly from myopic western policies or the rise of one the region's historical powers I don't know. French President Emmanuel Macron recently gave a speech on the decline of the West and the need to restore relations with Russia, briefly touching on the first point.
https://lv.ambafrance.org/Ambassadors-conference-Speech-by-M-Emmanuel-Macron-President-of-the-Republic

How will Saudi Arabia fare in a multipolar world?

notlurking

Payback time for trying bomb Yemen to the stone age....the Houthies have shown to be very stubborn and efficient....time for the KSA to find a seat at the peace table pronto....

Vegetius

Wonder how the Borg will respond when young whites begin demonstrating as such against America's half-century folly in the Middle East, from the right.

For that matter, I wonder how the elders, particularly those born from 1928 to 1958, will respond when their grandchildren and great-grandchildren begin marching as such against a stolen past and a dark future.


https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2019/09/13/judge-confederate-statues-will-stay-charlottesville/40145885/

Unhinged Citizen

Oh no! My poor portfolio of unloved Canadian oil sands and US Permian Basin producers!

Teehee

Eric Newhill

Maybe a kamikaze drone with a shape charge in the nose?

The explosion has to be able to penetrate the thick skin of the oil storage tanks.

turcopolier

Eric Newhill

How does it have the range and guidance needed?

turcopolier

vegetius

your meaning is unclear.

turcopolier

notlurking

Having lived in both places I would like to see the Zaidi Yemenis beat the Saudis like a rented mule.

Factotum

Cui bono - Russian oil prices

Factotum

Saudi's need Israeli's Iron Dome. Why haven't they installed it yet? CYA takes on new meaning.

Fred

ISL,

The global economy? China's is teetering due to Trump finally standing up for America and imposing tariffs. Germany's is catching the flu because they are also linked heavily to China. We are a long way from $100/barrel oil thanks also to President Trump. I for one am glad of both taking on China and cutting regulations. On a related note that tanker full of Iranian oil is now worth a lot more than it was yesterday.

Fred

So having failed to get the US to intervene in Syria after repeated false flag attacks on civilians the poor helpless Saudis need their best friend Trump to attack Iran, much to the delight of Bibi and MBS. Dead Yemeni children couldn't get it done but a refinery attack showing the complete lack of defenses the kingdom can field after four years of combat in Yemen and it's on to Moscow Tehran! How on God's green earth is that in our national interest?

The Twisted Genius

Judging by photos of wreckage from SA, the weapon seems to be the Yemeni built Quds cruise missile. It has a solid rocket booster and a small jet engine reportedly with a range of 900 miles. The engine is a Yemeni copy of the TJ100 turbojet made by PBS Group of the Czech Republic. PBS denies they sent any of their engines to Yemen. The Quds is a slightly smaller version of the Iranian Ya Ali. That engine is probably something my brother and father could design and build in my brother's home machine shop. They both built jet engines for a living.

https://www.janes.com/article/89746/yemeni-rebels-unveil-cruise-missile-long-range-uavs

https://www.wsj.com/articles/suspicions-rise-that-saudi-oil-attack-came-from-outside-yemen-11568498542

Aristophones

Exactly, assuming this was not a lucky hit, what is the defense for this weapon? If not a one-off hit, this is bad news for all of the "advanced" aggressors in the area.

Aristophones

Might the Pantsir missile system be an effective defense for these type missiles?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

Tidewater

I disagree with your misplaced optimism. I think this is a bad situation. These are still warning shots. There is just no telling how vulnerable the Saudi oil fields are. I think there is a possibility of crippling blows against ARAMCO and the Saudi regime.

Consider Qurayyah. This is a basically unknown place on the Saudi Al Hasa coast on the Persian Gulf tucked in behind Bahrain. If you went east from here you'd go across some water and then the southern part of Bahrain, and if further east, then across Qatar. Qurayyah IPP is a large gas and fuel oil combined cycle power station there. It is one of the largest power stations in the world, at 3927MW. Its purpose, at least in part, is to supply power to the largest seawater treatment plant in the world, along with many pump stations and a number of water injection facilities. Any consideration of the Khurais oil field (which has just taken a hit) has to include Qurayyah. The two places are linked by pipeline over a distance of about forty miles. The pipeline carries treated seawater, and this water is used in the process of 'water injection', a technology that has become essential to the successful functioning of the Khurais and other Saudi oil fields. Wikipedia has a brief discussion on 'Water Injection.' You cannot just pump seawater down into the deep trapped reservoirs of an oil field without treating it. This treatment is complex. You have to get algae and shells out of it. There has to be filtering through sand. There has to be deoxygenation. There is a reverse osmosis plant here as well. The cleansed saline water goes through a 48" diameter seawater injection pipe and is moved along and down into the Khurais oil field by powerful gas turbine water injection pumps. This injected water is essential to maintaining the pressure of the oil field, and it gives the field longer life. It can also be used to increase oil production, by pumping water down and forcing oil towards a central point where it can be extracted.

To get to my point, which I guess is pretty obvious. What if something happens to this vast complex at Qurayyah and Khurais when it's all linked together, if one part doesn't work? That processed water has to get to the Khurais oil field. Or the field has to be shut down. If this entire oil field has to be shut down one could speculate that there could be a domino effect, first on the Saudi oil industry, then potentially a world oil crisis being triggered.


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