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09 September 2019

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Pacifica Advocate

The reaction to what's going on in Hong Kong that I've seen, amongst the educated Taiwanese classes, is that most are horrified by it, perceiving it as a spasm of nihilist, ignorant Hong Kong youth manipulated by cynical outside forces.

Remember that support for Tsai Yingwen & her coalition remains somewhere in the 20 to 30% range--that is, very much near the same range that Chen Shuibian was afflicted with, before he was prosecuted and sent off to prison for corruption.

If the US intelligence agencies believe that Taiwan will throw in support for Hong Kong following a protest like this, it should think again. People in Taiwan have become far more skeptical of the US-Taiwan relationship, since the Sunflower Movement.

Yes--there will be a period of chaos, as the majority slowly explains to the unruly outliers that no, their ideas are not useful. Yes, as in Hong Kong, that period may last a period that US/uk authorities may find untenable.

But no: none of this will result in a China-NATO war. None of this will result in a hard, black line running between the Koreas, Taiwan, and Japan. None of this will stop the Philippines from continuing their gravitation westward ("Eastward", for you Euroyanks.)

Taiwan, I predict, will be the second-to-last stalwart holdout against US hegemony in East Asia--with Japan being the last.

different clue

I will guess that you are living in Taiwan, otherwise how would you be able to see the reaction among the educated Taiwanese classes?

I would have to read up on the names of the people and movements you have given us before I could know anything about them.

I had not heard, way back here in Great Lakestan, that US intelligence agencies were thinking about whether Taiwan would "support" Hong Kong or not, though I suppose the US intelligence agencies try to think about every possible thing. It seems more likely to me that the agencies would be thinking about how Taiwan does or does not plan to welcome the ChiCom regime when it looks their way and says " okay, you're next".

So, the "majority" will explain to the unruly outliers how useless their ideas are? In what sense is a pack of ChiCom Regime-Lords a "majority"? A "majority" of what or whom?

I hope you are correct that there will be no China-NATO war. American hegemony is fading and I hope the slow fade-out leaves America intact as a free country. I hope America can break free from the International Forcey-Free-TradeRape system.

Yes, as one hegemony fades away . . . another rises. Since Taiwan is largely Han-majority, I believe, I suppose Taiwan will fare better under Great Han Lebensraumist ChiCom rule than Tibet or Sinjiang or Inner Mongolia or or or . . .
And maybe Taiwan will find Chinese hegemony more enjoyable than the American kind. And aren't you the lucky lad? You may get to find out within your own lifetime.

As Angel-Eyes said to the Colonel with gangrene: " I wish you luck."

Mathias Alexander

Shouldn't that be "of US hegemony"?

b

Come on Pat.

You predicted the immediate introduction of Chinese troops in Hong Kong how many month back? Where are they?

China does not care about Hong Kong. It will not be provoked into another NED/CIA arranged Tianamen.

In Hong Kong the U.S. is making the usual mistake of betting on the extreme rightwing, libertarians and fascists.

The rioting students have already lost much of the wider support they had at the beginning of this operations. They will soon be seen as the nihilist idiots who only care about themselves that they truly are. The people of Hong Kong who care about Hong Kong will fight them down.

turcopolier

b

I did not. Chinese troops were massing on the HK border in August. There was a general strike and that was a possible flash point. I predicted that China would inevitably crush the rebellion in Hong Kong. I stand by that. Your anti-Americanism is showing again,

fredw

"China does not care about Hong Kong."

Obviously they do care. As the quoted article noted, they are the ones who provoked this situation. Students (and others) did not just rush out into the streets on a whim. They have not endured police state violence and arrests in pursuit of being "nihilist idiots".

Their chances seem slim. The question that I don't see asked or answered is "Why hasn't this been put down already?" That seems the only plausible end to it. The Chinese government certainly has the capability. Holding back is not an effect of any strictness about rules or morals. Not having done it can only mean that they see costs or dangers that they are not (yet) willing to face. Personally I think that the (the government) and powerful people with China derive a LOT of money and power from the perception of Hong Kong as a rule-of-law environment. But I have seen very little discussion of the motives for holding off. The costs of holding off are obvious. The reasons for doing so must be massive.

walrus

There are indications elsewhere on the web that China will try and quarantine HK and let it slowly die. Provided this can be achieved there is no need for military action. As for overseas chinese attitudes, I didn’t see any support for HK when I was in Singapore last month and demonstrations by Chinese students in Australia seem to be neatly divided into pro and anti HK camps. Most Chinese, I expect, just want to get on with their lives rather than agitate about the CCP.

Barbara Ann

"Why hasn't this been put down already?"

The PRC will get its birthday party over first.

Godfree Roberts

"Beijing ... has been steadily strengthening its grip, reducing room for dissent, and even seeking to control the independent judiciary through interpretations of the Basic Law."

Nonsense. Beijing has done nothing of the kind. Given that HK is one of the world's biggest spy centers–the US Embassy there has over 1,000 staff (!!!) it is a miracle that Beijing has never even requested an extradition treaty in 20 years.

No, HK has, like Taiwan, dug its own grave. It has British democracy, a British leader (she and her entire family hold British citizenship), British judges, British police officers, and its official language is English.

Hong Kong's outcomes are also British: a stagnant economy, 23% child poverty, unaffordable housing, and the highest inequality on earth.

Hong Kong has rejected repeated offers of help from the mainland which, in addition to having the most trusted legal system on earth, enjoys 90% home ownership, 0.7% child poverty and a GINI coefficient half of Hong Kong's.

fredw

"The PRC will get its birthday party over first."

No. Whatever they have in mind for the anniversary of Communist victory, it isn't having a drawn out conflict going on in their back yard that they can't seem to handle. Strength and unity of purpose must be projected. They might want to make their move right before October 1st, but I haven't seen any indication that they have made such a connection. Waiting is really not their style. If they make their move in the next couple weeks, it will be because they think they cannot let it carry over any longer.

blue peacock

I get a different perspective from Taiwanese business people who I speak with regularly. They are uniform in their disgust and fear of CCP. What they seem most concerned about is that the US will abandon them when push comes to shove. They are watching what's happening in HK with much interest and are privately very sympathetic to the aims of the people of HK to be independent of CCP rule.

blue peacock

"..betting on the extreme rightwing, libertarians and fascists."

Ha! Ha! Everyone that is not Communist.

Amir

There is alas a consistency in our ruling elite’s modus operandi: just look at DC’s support for Taliban, liver-eating Al Nusra (Al Qaeda) in Syria, slave-trader Jihadists in Libya & above all, genocidal Salafists in Yemen, Boston-marathon-bombing Chechens & above all Saudi terror-financing Clown Prince ⚙️Mohammad Bone Saw⚙️: it is telling that you are more concerned about a dead ideology as opposed to an expanding current dangerous movement.

Barbara Ann

b

I disagree with your characterization of the rioting students as nihilist idiots. Many probably believe (with justification) that the liberties they currently enjoy are at stake if HK's system of self-governance is eroded away to nothing. However, you raise a good point about the Chinese leadership being provoked into another Tiananmen. The PNAC crowd must be frustrated with the widespread public perception of China as *just* a manipulative trade competitor/pseudo adversary. A very public bloodbath in HK is just what they need to promote China to Axis of Evil status.

Mr Wong and his comrades would be well advised to treat support from an American administration still full of neocons with a great deal of suspicion. I don't doubt that people like Bolton would willingly goad them into escalating the confrontation until the PLA is forced to crush them. They may do so anyway. But if the risk of contagion is low an example can be made of HK without violence. If major disruption continues businesses will be forced to relocate. HK could simply be allowed to rot as this happens, pour encourager les autres.

blue peacock

Another CCP apologist heard from. Rivaling the zionist hasbara.

blue peacock

"it is telling that you are more concerned about a dead ideology as opposed to an expanding current dangerous movement."

I get your concern and completely support your viewpoint that the US government should not be supporting in any way the jihadi liver-eaters, which includes all their enablers.

That should not cloud your view on the Chinese Communist Party. While you may believe their ideology is dead, Xi does not believe so. In fact he seeks to revive it.

This speech by Australian John Garnaut is well worth a read to understand the role of ideology for the CCP.

https://sinocism.com/p/engineers-of-the-soul-ideology-in

Now, b is an anti-American propagandist whose sole raison d'être is to denigrate the US. On one hand he will write stories that the US is incompetent and on the other write stories on the omnipotence of US intelligence services. Everything for him is a US conspiracy. He is an armchair Marxist living comfortably in Germany taking advantage of freedoms in the West while extolling the virtues of the Chavistas and the Chinese Communists where none of those freedoms exist. Of course, he'll never walk the talk by actually living in those totalitarian states he considers utopia.

different clue

Most trusted legal system on earth? Really?

More trusted than Iceland's, Norway's, Denmark's, New Zealand's, Ireland's, etc. etc. etc.?

Maybe our own legal system isn't all-the-way-trusted, but is it really less trusted than China's legal system?

blue peacock

You know that CCP hasbara is not really at the top of the game yet when obviously ludicrous claims like the one you point out are made.

Maybe "Godfree" should pay a few yuan for some schooling from b. His blogging on the HK protests is excellent CCP propaganda.

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