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29 August 2019

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walrus

Sounds like Hezbollah just drew their own line in the sand...

John Minehan

IRON DOME seems to have been a cure for Israel's habitual weakness in Counter fire.

If the various Palestinian groups could work together, they could be a threat as there is not much room to re-position to suitable positions (with terrain mask, etc.) and several base lines of Pole Dish (or something more modern) would have given away the re positioning plan . . . but they don't work together well.

There will be no repeat of 2006 and the Iranians are over-extended. Israel has a major advantage.

On the other hand 2009 (with Hezbollah in Lebanon) and 2008-'89 in Gaza with Hamas were unpleasant surprises.

Barbara Ann

I'm starting to think bronze may have been a mistake.

JohnH

MAD AKA deterrence. Probably the only thing that Bibi understands and respects, unless he's developed a Masada complex, which would guarantee his name is remembered forever.

milomilo

After 2006 fiasco , do IDF have better strategy in the event of fullblown conflict with the hezbollah ? Yemeni fighters have shown ingenuity in their indigenous drone attacking Saudi , is it safe to assume Hezbollah have more than just missiles in their arsenal that can wreak havoc on israeli facilities ? For example a low flying autonomous drone swarm targeting IAF forward airfields.

Will Israel send in ground troops or repeat the ineffective IAF bombing campaign ala 2006 ?

What is the chance of Trump sending US bombers to pummel hezbollah defense belt at the behest of bibi ?

turcopolier

JM
Iron Dome can be overwhekmed with sufficient fire.

eakens

Overextended? What does that mean, they're just going to waive the white flag if Israel keeps pushing the envelope? Unlikely. Just look at the loss of life that occurred during the Iran-Iraq war.

Israel's advantage will disappear once HZB successfully hits an Ammonia plant.

ISL

Iron Dome seems to fair very poorly against decent missiles

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/effectiveness-of-israel-s-iron-dome-called-to-question-80-of-palestinian-militants-makeshift-rockets-penetrate-defences

Unsurprisingly, it suffers from some of the same problems of the Patriot system as it is not part of the kind of multi-layered networked web as in the S-300/S-400 system. Unsurprisingly, given the poor performance of the Patriot in Saudi Arabia, our best buddies are looking at getting a S-400.

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/negotiations-for-saudi-acquisition-of-advanced-russian-s-400-missile-system-ongoing-terms-of-sale-remain-highly-complex

Do not know why you mention the Iranians are over-extended. As Seven of Nine would say - irrelevant. Where did you see that Bibi implies Iran was invading Israel? the article was about Hizbullah, which is not over-extended.

Ishmael Zechariah

John Minehan,
re: "There will be no repeat of 2006"
Care to expand this assertion a bit further? Do you mean, given Nasrallah's habit of doing more than he says, that any future adventures will be cost izzies much more than the 2006 shivaree?
Ishmael Zechariah

John Minehan

It **CAN** be. I'm not sure it will be.

If the various groups were serious, they would have deployed several Pole Dish base lines and found the radars and taken out the systems in 2015.The fact that Hezbollah did not join Hamas then indicates that, as in 1948, the Arabs can't/won't work together.

John Minehan

There was a similar 2008-9 fiasco in Gaza with Hamas. There was a lot better outcome with Hamas in 2015, which implies they have developed a better strategy.

John Minehan

Look at what happened in 2015 with Gaza, the window of vulnerability is closed and Iran is over-extended.

John Minehan

The Iranian people seem to be reaching their limits with their governments' foreign policy. There are limits to the amounts of treasure and blood people will supply.

John Minehan

Somewhat different types of systems.

IRONDOME is also a Counterfire Radar, as well as something that supports an intercept system.

Ec-mk

Hamas and Hezbollah are orders of magnitude apart on every possible measure. I don't think it is comparable. And I am not even adding the possibility of Syria, Iran and Iraqui militias joining Hezbollah (which evidence suggests might occur)

John Minehan

The potentail problem amy be that he ses the threat as completely empty, where it is just mostly empty.

If 2006 proved nothing else, even the iDF can get over-confident.

artemesia
"There are limits to the amounts of treasure and blood people will supply."

Any predictions as to when the American people will reach their limit on supplying blood and treasure for the benefit of Bibi?
Pat Buchanan: Will Bibi's War Become America's War?
https://www.unz.com/pbuchanan/will-bibis-war-become-americas-war/

Netanyahu is in direct line of descent of Vladimir Jabotinsky's closest acolytes. Jabotinsky's zionism is the expansionist, militarized form, its attitude toward the Arabs -- that Balfour enjoined be respected -- clearly expressed in his Iron Wall policy http://en.jabotinsky.org/media/9747/the-iron-wall.pdf

Ironic that Israel sought US assistance to build Iron Dome so that Israel could pursue Iron Wall.

eakens

You're seriously comparing Southern Lebanon with Gaza?

Vig

bronze? tending towards orange?

Barbara Ann

Yes I should have expanded on that mildly facetious remark, I read the headline and felt exasperated. So many "back to the stone age" threats coming from competing civilizations these days it seems sooner or later that that is our collective destiny. One wonders whether our belligerent species wouldn't have been better off just staying at that stage of development and skipping the whole 'civilization' thing. It all started to go wrong with the invention of bronze..

catherine


''The Iranian people seem to be reaching their limits with their governments' foreign policy.''

I wouldn't count on that. Islam teaches that the faithful must endure suffering with hope and faith. Some younger Iranians might be ready for change but if push came to shove I doubt even they would go against family and country and capitulate to 'foreign' intrusion.


catherine

This is too ridiculous. Surely Israel doesnt think Hezbollah is stupid....do they? Maybe the yellow mannequins and vehicles have bombs in them designed to be set off if any Hez are seen crossing the border.


Israel deploys mannequin soldiers on border with Lebanon

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/29/israel-putting-dummy-soldiers-lebanon-border-reports-say

Israel has positioned mannequins of soldiers in jeeps along the Lebanon border, according to Lebanese and Israeli correspondents, as the army braces itself for an expected attack from Hezbollah.
Ali Shueib, who works for Hezbollah’s al-Manar satellite TV station, tweeted photos of what appeared to be two military off-road vehicles. In the front sat yellowish dummies in army uniform.
Separately, Or Heller, an Israeli military correspondent for Channel 10 News, published a photo of a similar-looking mannequin in another vehicle

ted richard

contrary to common popular american opinion israel is in fact indefensible geography against an enemy with a large stock of accurate medium range (300-500 miles) missiles.

being nuclear capable as they are will not help them in a war against hezbollah, iran or even syria let alone a combination of those foes.

washignton will be able to provide little help fast enough to save the northern half of israel where most of the people and industry is located. as a complex society it won't take much to implode israeli living standards long enough to motivate a mass emigration back to russia, the usa or europe for the most able of the populace.

one would think that occupying such a narrow piece of land would make the government smarter about not antagonizing so completely their neighbors but alas the zionists appear to be slow learners.

nuclear weapons won't save and will only bring down upon them universal condemnation should they stupidly use them.

their air force is first rate which but not be enough since their ground forces are now second rate and no longer battle hardened as are their potential enemies. wars are won in the dirt not the air.

nassrallah is not prone to hyperbole in his public speeches unlike bibi who never misses a chance to boast and threaten even when its not required. if nassrallah states hezbollah can do what he claims about the stone age i seriously think the israeli military planners take him at his word and will try to avoid conflict.

all the recent bibi attacks in other countries is about bibi using bombs to misdirect from his scandals and appear relevant to his electorate in the upcoming elections

CK

The Democrat party will not be happy with allowing huge immigration of Israelis. Israeli's like non-porous borders (at least in Israel).
The current Russia is not interested in becoming the second Judea.
France, Germany, and UK wants more Muslims immigrants and fewer Jews.

J

Israel has under-the-table declared war on our U.S. with their Mossad Epstein Pedophile Blackmail Honey-trap operation.

A Mossad blackmail operation designed to ensnare U.S. politicians, U.S. government personnel, U.S. business, and U.S. judicial personas for Israeli blackmail gains and conveniences. Epstein, was an Clandestine officer for the Mossad. The same goes for Giselle Maxwell who is an operational yet-to-be-deceased Mossad Clandestine officer who handled Epstein.

Now how do we as the U.S. go about rolling up the Mossad Pedophile Honey Trap operation that the Mossad has nested in all of our 50 states? Do we give the Mossad operatives whom ever they may be 48 hours to leave our U.S. soil, before we start sending them back to Israel in postage-due body bags? Or do we as the U.S. just start sending them back to Israel in postage-due body bags, with no warning? I personally go for the latter, based on their apparent arrogance.

We the U.S. can send Israel back to the stone-age, and Israel's government and their Mossad need to understand that it's not nice to bite the hand that feeds them!

J

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