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23 August 2019

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Jim Ticehurst

Yes Sir..The Dynamics of Being able to Think and make Decisions with a Clear Mind..And Rational ..Stable Leadership For the Good of the United States..is Apparent...A New Fed Chairrman is not going to stabilize the Markets or Economy..Events are Changing so Fast..and Global Confrontation so Intense..and Challenging..That The Republicans should consider that they May Have to Put up another Candidfate for President..Just In Case.. Perhaps The Democreats..will have a New Chosen One also..

Aono

It will not matter who opposes him when he hastens the recession's arrival to before next November.

Quartered Safe Out Here

Sir,
You can add this to the list:

http://news.trust.org/item/20190823155042-k15dh

Trump's latest salvo against China. "Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA," Trump wrote on Twitter. "We don't need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them."

Here the reddest of red states it won't make any difference. Sure we prevented an moron from becoming a senator, but when it comes to presidents, we're stuck with the GOP, moronic or not.

Linda

Suggest everyone check out the series The Family on Netflix. Even if it is close to the truth it is very scary

David Solomon

It is long past the time for some Republicans to challenge Trump in the primaries. The man is unhinged.

Lars

Somewhere H C Andersen must be laughing his butt off. He wrote a wonderful tale a long time ago about an "Emperor". "Hereby ordered to" will enter US history now as an example of what went wrong in 2016.

There is a fair amount to conspiracies found around here, so I will provide you with another one: Since Trump is deadly scared of losing the next election and it is increasingly evident that he will, by next spring, he will resign and as "part of the deal", he will install his daughter as Pence's VP.

Bobo

I have always tuned out on what the President says and watched what he does or what the benefit is to the country and have been happily pleased. Yes, events are changing quite quickly and Donald smells something in the air and it has to do with China.
It’s obvious this Export/Import imbalance that he is attempting to correct has become a true War without Swords. Has China signaled something we are not privy too.

LessMore

Trump seems to be concerned about a recession in 2020 which he thinks the Fed would be fine with if it gets him out of the White House. I suspect he is right. The fundamental problem Trump has is that the numbers have been gamed for 40 years or more to make the economy look better than it is. He's going to be forced to explain that to voters after crowing about his economic success to deploreables who know better. If he can convince the Fed to goose markets (as a proxy for the hope of deplorable) he doesn't have to do that so much. He knows they have done it for Presidents well before him who in his eye's at least have done less for the economic well being of the country.

He may well be right that Powell is the greater enemy. Powell, and Wall Street, have been fine outsourcing manufacturing to China which has crippled our industrial capacity. Xi is an obvious opponent, but there's no confusion where his loyalties lie, they lay with China. In the US, the worst enemies pretend to be friends. Is Hillary or Xi the bigger enemy? The Fed most certainly plays politics though its mostly consumed with wealth transfer. It's hard not to notice the graft and bailouts where free markets are cyclically reverted to neither free or markets.

Perhaps the issue with Government as a "cost center" is one of framing. It's true in one sense, but what kind of price can you put on drinkable water or edible food? Much less Freedom. It would be much simpler to tally the amount of commerce on our interstates or waterways. I think Trumps biggest mistake as a businessman was probably assuming that if he looked to various financial interests of the people and interest groups that would win him their adoration. Instead, the near treasonous betrayal by parts of the establishment never even slowed down. If Barr doesn't indict some people over it, besides the blow to the Constitution and our Republic, Trump may find himself in jeopardy after he leaves office when the now hidden apparatchiks regain the reins of power again.
He was basically set up for Treason charges. Conspiring with the Enemy to take control of the Country, capitol 'T' Treason if I'm not mistaken Sir. It's not a High Crime or Misdemeanor (forget impeachment), it's the most heinous of crimes and delineated as such by the Founders. If he hadn't won the election where would he be now? Maybe just blackmailed by the 3 letter agencies.., but maybe bankrupt with his family under the boots of Comey and friends and looking at a noose for a retirement package. So that I guess was the long way of saying what you see from Trump now might be desperation. There are big stakes on what happens in 2020 and the Fed has a lot of leverage on it. Those who don't read your site could well see their economic well being as the sole basis for their 2020 vote.

John Minehan

Typically, you need better managers in not-for-profits, per Peter Drucker, the sort that squeezes the most utility out of every dollar.

Trump's business career was spent running what are essentially interlinked sole-proprietorships. Not really the best background for being POTUS.

I've always felt better about candidates for office who have faced a platoon, or a classroom, or a jury or a board after a bad quarter. Not sure my opinion has changed.

Barbara Ann

Your Munchausen reference is intriguing Colonel. Trump's penchant for wildly outlandish self-promotion has long been reminiscent of the fictional Baron's impossibly tall stories. But his latest ravings are different, they seem almost designed to persuade his audience that the VSG is in fact not stable at all and quite possibly unwell. Are you then perhaps thinking of the eponymous syndrome - is he faking it to freak the GOP out so much they have to find an alternative candidate?

I do not believe Trump to be mad, but I could believe he may simply want out. If this were the case, might this greatest of showmen see feigned madness as the least worst way to close the show? In any case, if the bizarre behavior continues to escalate at the current rate Pence better start thinking about his VP.

ted richard

the forces behind trump understand and have for some years that IF the usa does not detach at least significantly from manufacturing in china at the expense of deep cycle r and d and manufacturing here at home within 20 years the usa will be primarily a giant farm feeding the world. critical skill sets will be gone for good necessary to maintain a first world quality of life here in the usa. we simply can not afford to run trillion deficits while shipping whats left of our ability to make complex things abroad.

it may already be too late to resurrect made in america on a scale needed to keep a first class military possible. time will tell but if nothing is done to change the direction of our elites continued asset stripping our industrial base we are finished as a top shelf nation within 20 years.

as it is we toggling between "lachrymose (think democrats, SJW, trans-whatevers and all manner of hollywood crybabies) ,argentina and hypertense brazil". we see this dichotomy everyday in our social disintegration, partially anyway the result of shipping our jobs overseas for most all but the smartest of our population.

love him or hate him... trump right now is mostly all that stands between whats left of our industrial base disappearing and attempting to at least slow down the trend here into the toilet.

what thinking rational americans ought to really worry about is what happens AFTER trump!

Jim Ticehurst

Bobo..I think All The Global Players..Leaders..are beyond The "Signal" Stage..I would Say..On a Level of FIVE..We are Now Nationally and Internationally..at DEF CON 4..Plus 1/2

David Solomon

Maybe we should start worrying about whether or not there is an after Trump. This whole freak show it out of hand.

D White

..."Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China,...

Is that not prima facie evidence of mental disorder?

Lars

So, the US got started with the Madness of King George III and may end with the Madness of King Donald I.

I expect that after Trump there will some serious efforts to make sure that somebody like him is never elected again. There may even be some curtailment of the presidential powers that may one day be regretted, but I do think the backlash will be pervasive.

Harlan Easley

He is mad because the dollar is at an all-time high for the year making imports cheaper and exports more expensive. Which contradicts his goal of more balanced trade.

The European Bank actually has induced negative rates. You must pay the banks over there if you want to maintain a deposit with them. Insane.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-19/bloomberg-dollar-index-climbs-to-highest-level-this-year

ted richard

i hope you are wrong. truly!

the trend for our economy has been down since 2008 and visibly down down since 4th quarter 2015. imo trump is what can be called a counter trend rally. the trend as i said is down a bear market as it were which has more than decade yet to run which makes trumps presidency just a rally in a bear market presuming he wins in 2020.

the democrats are off the rails as can be clearly seen everyday in the news. if i were betting man it is the democratic party which is much closer to disintegration than the republican party which has found a raison d'etre if enough main stream republicans are smart enough to grasp the meaning of trumps 2016 win. for repubs like paul ryan and his ilk they are very lucky they live in the 21rst century and not the 19th.

historically left wing revolutions seldom succeed and they provide ample evidence of the totalitarian nature of the governments they produce. make no mistake the SJW, antifa, green climate change warriers, AOC and the squad of 4 she is part of as well as all the other circus clowns and freaks both mainstream and obstensible rebels are not live and let live, they are utterly dictatorial and totalitarians should they ever gain real control of our government or in fact any government of size.... california is a good example of a light variation of the real goal.

i suspect but have no way to know that if/when the hard left tries to actually implement their remake of the human race without choice on the part of those to be remade the left will be crushed in chaotic violence ushering in some sort of military government.

this is partly why the left is so desperate to overturn the 2nd amendment and disarm the populace. an armed populace slated for an involutary remake will not roll over quite so easily.

i suspect as socialism dies out over the next 20 years EVERYWHERE as a VIABLE organizing idea for society the left you see now as younger people will become a lost generation unable to handle the changes that are coming as widespread access to other peoples money
dies at the federal government level. places like california will become a cautionary tale of what happens to a society that goes the way they are.

exiled off mainstreet

The lunatic marxist would now have a shot. Stability is in doubt as a result of the erratic behavior described and because Trump despite his campaign has become too much influenced by conventional deep state neocons like Bolton running his foreign policy which puts peopleon edge, consciously or unconsciously. Since many can see that living standards have declined over the 21st century despite massive manipulation of cost of living and employment statistics, a considerable number of voters will no longer be that worried about marxism since the present paradigm seems to be failing them anyway. A lot of the instability is because Trump, a natural bully as the article indicates, never made good on the promise that got him in despite massive establishment hostility (even to the extent of what amounted to an attempted coup as well documented by Larry Johnson and others)that he would curb the deep state power structure. I agree that if, as is probable, the power structure succeeds in giving the nomination to brain dead Biden, that Trump is assured of victory despite the instability since under non compos mentis it would obviously continue, and in addition politically correct bullshit would be bolstered and further the situation where normal people have become second class citizens and degenerates of various and sundry types get special dispensations. The best candidate, Tulsi Gabbard, obviously does not have a chance because the structure of the yankee imperium prevents any serious opponents from making any headway.

John Minehan

If true, it is probably too late to change anything. Being breadbasket of the world would not be such a bad thing, if that is possible.

Seamus Padraig

Trump's real sin in this case is personalizing the issue around Jerome Powell. The true problem is the Fed itself: https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/08/22/the-real-reasons-why-the-media-is-suddenly-admitting-to-the-recession-threat/

Jack

Sir

Monetary policy went off the rails ever since the Greenspan era when underwriting Wall St speculation became the primary mandate.

If low rates and central bank balance sheet expansion was the panacea then Japan and the EU would be booming. Instead they have destroyed their banking system. Their banks interest income doesn’t cover their operating expenses. Their stocks are trading at bankruptcy levels.

Japan has had ZIRP for many years. The BoJ essentially owns the JGB “market” which no longer exists as a market. They are also slowly nationalizing their economy as they’re already a Top 10 holder of the 100 companies in the Nikkei index. Their economy however remains moribund.

The EU is in a similar situation. Negative rates across the curve in Germany. And now they are readying more hair of the dog that bit them. ECB monetization of even junk bonds keep zombie businesses alive when what they need is restructuring.

Contemporary monetary policy orthodoxy is all sophistry. Common sense left the Eccles building a long time ago. Even with thousands of Ph.D economists the Fed can’t even forecast basic metrics with any degree of accuracy. If all they’re gonna do is more monetization better to hand over the task of monetary policy to the Treasury.

Trump unfortunately doesn’t get it that the Fed can’t really effect Main St. Maybe what he really cares about is the stock market. The bond market in any case has lowered rates. The Fed is only following. Treasury rates have declined even with trillion dollar annual debt increases by the federal government. Very few are talking about the insidious impacts of current monetary policy orthodoxy on pensions and insurance policies.

The Fed’s goal of achieving 2% inflation is ridiculous. Why would anyone want a policy that intentionally reduces the standard of living through debasement. The whole thinking that is exposed through increasing sophistry is designed to impoverish the masses to benefit the uber-wealthy owners of financial assets and speculators. Trump’s stated goal of restoring incentives for the real economy that Main St participates in is correct, IMO. His policies however fall far short. Nothing has been done to reduce let alone eliminate the incentives for continued financialization of the economy which is the Achilles heel.

The independence of the Fed is nonsense when they’ve become a fully captured slave of Wall St.

Fred

Lars,

Curtailment of presidential power? How, by the likes of Brennan, Clapper, Strzock and the President that used instruments of state power to try and keep Trump from getting elected to begin with?

ted richard

actually jack the FED is captured slave of the federal government and has been since WW1. the ORIGINAL composition of the FED was 7-9? i forget regional feds EACH setting short terms interest rates specific to their regional. the agricultural midwest needed rates at difference cycles than the oil patch in texas. this was the plan and MOST importantly the original fed design was to buy CORPORATE paper when things got tough NOT government debt. it was setup so buying fed debt was never part of the plan. what happened was WW1 where the federal powers demanded the fed support the war by buying federal debt once the war ended the fed never went back to its original design.

if you want to blame its the politicans who corrupted the fed not wall street. anyway the FED is trapped as are ALL western central banks. the zero interest rates for 10 years now has trapped both they and the governments they support into a one road which leads to an impenetrable wall with a gaping cavern and trap door just in front of it.

expect NEGATIVE rates for federal debt coming in the not too distant future. europe is there now and will get worse. this is WHY the stock markets are so crazy high. smart money in europe and other places are exiting government bonds enmasse and moving to stocks and corporate debt because return OF capital is going to become MORE important than return ON capital. over the next 10 years you will see 2 sets of rates. the real ones in the private sector and the make believe ones for government debt.

different clue

Or maybe, as Barbara Ann said below, it is prima facie evidence of cleverly faking a mental disorder? Because Trump has shown he could get elected, he has been there and done that, and he is now tired of it all? And wants out?

But on HIS terms. I don't know enough to guess what "will" happen. I can only say that I would not be surprised if Trump stays in through the election, and if elected and re-Inaugurated; very shortly there-after contrives to resign the Presidency for health and more-time-with-family reasons. Upon which point, he will turn the next 4 or 8 years of Presidenting over to Pence, thereby leaving his legacy in strong hands.

different clue

Let the world be breadbasket of the world. Let America be breadbasket of America.

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