Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War? - Re-published 2 September 2016, Republished again 30 August 2019

(In light of; the decline in the economy of SA, the apparently successful Yemeni guided missile attack on Taif, SA (700 Km from the Yemen border), and the presence of Yemeni forces in the Asir Province of SA it seems appropriate to re-publish this post.  It was originally posted in April, 2015)

"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.

While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.

"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said."  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410

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IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen.  This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY.  SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations.  The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive.   On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located).  The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions.  In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents.  Egypt is dragging its feet.  The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US.  pl

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"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.

Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-air-war-struggles-to-make-gains-as-yemen-fragments/2015/04/09/1a045766-ddf6-11e4-b6d7-b9bc8acf16f7_story.html

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IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.

What could be more tempting?  pl 

Comments

[Poul]

This Youtube channel by Ram_Z is very good at finding videos of fighting between Saudis and Houthis & Co.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqPd_X32DxBFFJfluOQg67w

The video mentioned by Jane's show not only the LAV 90 crashing into a armoured ambulance but also the Saudi watch position being eliminated in close combat.

It's remarkable that the Saudis keep positioning a handful of men or less with little support which are then picked off by a larger group of Houthis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCkPzWijWuU

[Babak Makkinejad]

no - "gandom goon".

[Linda Lau]

I couldn't agree more with those who commented on the lack of smart, savvy hardworking (male) Saudis. Yes, it is because the rulers have not wanted to have them. The irony is that they have just such Saudis right under their noses - the women, but of course their talents will not be used. There are rare cases - I know two of them but they are certainly exceptions since they are Idrisis.

[turcopolier]

Linda Lau

I do not share your optimism about Saudis. IMO they Saudi "people" are a combination of Wahhabi fanatics and hangers-on feeding from the trough of Al-Saud largesse. the westernized segment of society are IMO trivial and unimportant from a political POV. pl

[FB Ali]

Muzaffar Ali, Abu Sinan,

Thank you for 'resurrecting' my old comment.

It's surprising how little has changed since we made our comments on this post last time. The war in Yemen still grinds on, showing few signs of ending. Saudi princeling Muhammad bin Salman continues on his feckless path, now fueled by visions manufactured out of whole cloth by high-priced US consultants. This situation would have led to unrest, if not an uprising, in any self-respecting polity, but you cannot expect anything like that from these Arabs.

I have sometimes wondered why. After all, this was the land that produced the people who, fired by the message of the Prophet, erupted on the world scene in the 7th, and succeeding, centuries, and spread that message across most of the known world. However, it seems that, unfortunately, though this is the same land, these are not the descendants of those Arabs. These are the offshoot of the dregs left behind after all the years of worthwhile, enterprising people leaving for Baghdad, Damascus, Constantinople, Cairo, Marrakesh, Cordoba, Samarkand, etc, and the lands surrounding them. What remained behind were the ancestors of this pitiful lot.

[Babak Makkinejad]

If one pays attention to the corollaries of the Makkinejad Thesis, then one could see that Saudi Arabia, and indeed all Muslim polities, in as much as they are going against the Shia Iran, are marching down a dead end.

The Seljuk Lands, remain, in my opinion, the only path forward for Muslim countries - politically, religiously, culturally, etc.

Poor Arabs, so close to Diocletian States, so far from God.

[ex PFC Chuck]

"IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen."

Thank you again for reminding me why I continue to read this site after finding it ten or so years ago. Your personal understanding of all aspects of the Middle East, and in particular the Arab countries, informed the prescience of that first sentence you wrote nearly four and a half years ago.

[Johnb]

Things appear to be moving in the Royal Saudi household as the Head of the Royal purr and his Deputy have both been removed. Policy failures exact consequences.

[Muzaffar Ali]

Col Lang

Will appreciate if Gen FB Ali can update his views on the Yemen situation.

[turcopolier]

Muzaffar Ali

I would like that as well.

[DH]

Wow, four-and-a-half years ago. I remember this article and was glad Pakistan did not want to play ball.

[Poul]

Is the Saudi & UAE alliance breaking up?

https://en.muraselon.com/2019/09/saudi-backed-offensive-to-retake-aden-ends-in-total-defeat-fast-retreat/

[FB Ali]

Col Lang, Muzaffar Ali,

My friend Ingolf drew my attention to your comments today on this old thread; I might have missed them otherwise.

I find there's not much I can add to my last comment of 3 September 2016. I find it strange that the war in Yemen is still grinding on, though it is now being waged mostly using missiles. The Saudis are no better at this kind of warfare than they were previously -- in spite of their wealth, and the foreign advisers and operators it enables them to acquire. They seem to be very good at targetting civilian facilities!

I find that my contempt for the Saudis, both leaders and people, is undiminished. It is unfortunate that they are able to purchase US support for their policies. This is one of the unfortunate aspects of Trump's rule - which has reduced the USA to a 'banana republic' in the eyes of most of the world!

[blue peacock]

FB Ali

In the past 50 years has there been any President that hasn't actively supported the House of Saud?

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

I would like to remember here our dead collegue Charles I, on this forum, and on this thread, from 2015.

[David Habakkuk]

Babak Makkinejad,

I also. He was a thoughtful man.

[FB Ali]

I would second that. Charles was a very fine person, whose untimely death was a great loss!

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

He was a fine fellow who had ruined his health through drink and drugs in youth.