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28 August 2019

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Morongobill

You are so far into denial of the facts that you typed this from your row boat near Cairo.

Keep dreaming.

Fred

Lars,

If only Nancy Pelosi could get an impeachment bill out of committee. I'm sure when The Squad gets control we won't have to wait for years to impeach for colluding with the Russians, or corrupt NYC real estate deals, or payoffs to porn stars or, what's the newest scandal this time? Inquiry now! Impeachment, well, maybe next election cycle.

LondonBob

I agree with the scourging, I was disagreeing with the contention of the poster that pursuing politicians of opposing parties for wrongdoing is akin to third World behaviour, an argument I know Bannon made. Maybe Trump can pardon Obama and Clinton after they have been sufficiently chastised.

John Minehan

Trump, as a businessman, tended to overextend himself in areas where he was not very able (gaming, airlines and proprietary educational institutions come to mind).

As POTUS, Trump started a trade war with the PRC against an almost universal consensus among economists that such a course of action: 1) was virtually unwinnable in the particular; and 2) systemically disruptive in general.

This is a "bell the cat" plan, like the invasion of Iraq to "transform the Middle East." I doubt this will end well.

The problem with "trusting your gut" is that you will be wrong more times than you are right. If you are the only one bearing the risk, and the winners pay off vastly more than the losers cost, you are OK. An example would be Nassim Nicholas Taleb's hedge fund strategy.

Trump (or any POTUS, by definition) is not in that position.

turcopolier

JM

That depends on the quality of your gut.

Don Schmeling

'Trump is nothing like a failure. The country is prosperous. We are not at war. What would be the charge? Bad taste?"
Exactly!

And he is trying to bring industry back into the USA. I don't know if he can do it, but if he succeeds, he will be listed as one of your country's greatest Presidents

Barbara Ann

What was the almost universal consensus of political pundits on Trump's chances before the election? Trump was elected POTUS despite us (and doubtless him) being assured it was 1) virtually unwinnable in the particular; and 2) systemically disruptive in general. My gut tells me it is highly unwise to underestimate what this man can achieve with his gut.

Keith Harbaugh

Are you referring to HRC here? I thought you had said in an earlier post that you had recommended her for some kind of award at VMI when you were involved with nominations for such awards. Somehow Sidney Blumenthal was involved in that, IIRC.

turcopolier

KH

Yes, but I di not see her then. I recommended her but by the time the award was made I declined to attend.

Fred

I am assured by an expert, a Nobel prize winner no less, that the economy is never going to recover. In fact it is so bad Obama got a deal on a completely non-elitist mansion on Martha's Vineyard. I hope he enjoys the beach front views, experts assure me he's only got twelve years.

John Minehan

Eh, not really.

HRC was almost more unpopular than Trump in many circles. Certain people (Salena Zito notably), forecast issues in the Mid-West that had been developing over several election cycles.

A lot of people foresaw an odd result in the Electoral College, either someone winning the Popular Vote without taking the Electoral College or an Adams-Jackson- like trip to the House.

The HRC E-mails are not evidence of a crime, but neither did they make me think she could handle being POTUS; she set up that unwieldy e-mail architecture to get around FOIL and by DoS's own IG there were major issue with Computer Security and Document Security in DoS.

Not enough people saw her campaign as anything other than a sale of day-old-bread.

different clue

It depends on who or what the DemParty nominates. There are millions of Pink Kitty Cap legacy Jonestown Clinties who would rather see the Bad Orange Man re-elected than to vote for the evil Lunatic Marxist who cost Her Royal Hillness the Presidency so far as they are concerned.

And there are millions of Bitter Berners who would rather risk having the Bad Orange Man re-elected than to vote for a Catfood Clintonite. And if Her Royal Herness gets herself re-nominated as Candidate all over again . . . under cover of darkness in a Brokered Convention . . . then at least some of those Bitter Berners will vote for Bad Orange Man all over aGAIN to send Countess Clintula back into her coffin aGAIN and try to make sure she stays there for good.

So it is too simple to say that just because a majority of Americans " do not want " Mr. Trump to have a second term ; that he therefor will not have one. DemParty decisions at and after the Convention will have a very major influence on that.

different clue

A problem for Hillary is that the particular strand of feminism she embodied was an upper-middle-class feminism . . . which has come to be called Goldman Sachs Feminism. And the Goldman Sachs Feminists' major concern was breaking through the Tiffany Glass Ceiling.

blue peacock

"...Trump started a trade war with the PRC against an almost universal consensus among economists that such a course of action: 1) was virtually unwinnable in the particular; and 2) systemically disruptive in general."

When has the universal consensus among economists ever proven correct? In actual market trading the winning strategy is always to fade the "universal consensus of economists".

Maybe you forgot to read Jack's response to your Ph.D economist friends dire opinions on the trade "war" with the Chinese Communist Party! Yeah, they are exactly some of those that sold the Deplorables down the river in the hope that the Communists would give them a slice of pie.

BTW, Trump is already winning the trade war against the Chinese Communists. Just follow the stories on Bloomberg & Reuters of how many companies are shifting their production away from China. If he ratchets it up a couple notches by sanctioning the Chinese banks including those that a US Appeals Court has upheld contempt fines on, then we will see how Xi & his politburo squeal like the culled hogs in China.

This is Xi's China - a revolution waiting to happen.

pic.twitter.com/5qEfTVq2r9

— Jon (@JBoc1o) August 27, 2019
blue peacock

China's tariffs on US hogs hits essentials for Chinese whereas US tariffs on Chinese goods hit discretionary and intermediate items for Americans. Big difference.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/import-limits-effects-of-swine-fever-hit-pork-prices-in-china-11566990454

Pork prices up 18% in 2 weeks and 50% in the past year. Yeah, Xi is winning! With more winning like this Xi will soon be in a re-education camp.

catherine

I have a short story about Hillary. A friend of mine who was a mid level executive with a Fortune 50 company had cancer and the surgery required left her disabled, she lost half her back muscle and the use of her left arm. Since her job was 80% travel year round she was declared "unfit" for her position and the company offered her no other position. Plus their insurer kept refusing to pay on her disability insurance and she had run thru several 100 thousand of her own savings on living expenses and med bills during this time. My husband referred her to several attorneys but when they explained ERISA to her and that the court could make her responsible for paying both her legal cost and the insurers legal fees if she lost she balked.
She was so mad however she fired off a email to Hillary's WH office describing her situation since that was during the time Hillary was pushing on health care but not thinking to hear anything from it. But several weeks later she got a phone call from a lawyer with the DOL who said her letter had been referred to them. Several weeks later she got a check from the insurer for everything they owed her and letter of apology from the HR department of her company.
Needless to say she is a big supporter of Hillary and voted for her. This was almost enough to make me support her but this was back on the mid 90's and I think Hillary had become too power driven and become too radical leftist in public and too wedded to WS in the back room.
There might be other instances where a WH responded to a average citizen but this one is the only on I know of.

catherine

''My gut tells me it is highly unwise to underestimate what this man can achieve with his gut''

A lot of people have no understanding of why Trump was elected.
It wasn't genius.
I said 12 years ago that if a candidate with a "America First'(and I used that exact phrase) slogan came along he would be elected.
Why?
Because the country was ANGRY. Everyone but the 1% was angry and disgusted and everyone thought their class or group was getting the short end of the stick...and most were. Working Americans of every class were the most ignored people in the country and they were sick of the DC incest tank status quo.
Of course Trump wasn't what I had in mind as a American Firster so I wouldn't vote for him.
Why?
Because I knew his business background, not the rumors or the PR hype, the facts.
Any marketing exec. or anyone gets around enough to 'sniff the wind' would have advised tapping into that ANGER and that is what Trump did.
BUT that ANGER is still out here, in fact its worse so I wouldn't make any bets on who is going to win the next election.
Imo...its going to go one of two ways;..Public Anger vr Public Exhaustion with the turmoil.
And those two can be combined by a candidate smart enough to use both.

catherine

''when The Squad gets control ''

Well this will probably set someone's hair of fire..tee hee... but I like the Squad. And Ted Lieu who also blasted the Israel 'influence'.
They have done wonders for my Israel Derangement Syndrome.

So how ironic is it that it took a immigrant Palestine girl, a immigrant Somalia girl and a immigrant Japanese guy to say in public, despite the risk to their political careers ,what none of our locally bred politicians will say about the pernicious influence of the Israel Fifth Column.


d74

«his campaign's collusion with Russia...»

Do you suppose Putin is so incompetent that he would have bet everything on the orange-haired guy who has nothing between his ears? A bad investment, really.

You can answer the qualities of Orange Hairs are well hidden and Putin discovered them, but I doubt it.

It is safer to think such a big failure by the KGB/FSB is unlikely. The guy with nothing between his ears is all alone, left to his own devices. Exit the poutineries. The next step is for the USA with/against the USA and that's fine.

John Minehan

that is an interesting anecdote. I've heard similar positive things about HRC as a Senator.

On the other hand, it appears your friend was denied benefits due under the Plan, which is the quintessential violation of ERISA.

It would strike me the first thing you would do as a private attorney would be to exhaust administrative remedies and that any demand letters would be copied to US DoL, who (along with the IRS) oversee ERISA.

While HRC benefited your friend, I'm not sure she did anything unusual.

turcopolier

d74

There are many kinds of intelligence. This may be a new thought for you but there are people who function differently than you but are yet intelligent.

Barbara Ann

catherine

Yes Trump tapped into the zeitgeist and the next winner will have to do likewise. But another necessary for Trump's success was his extraordinarily skill in defeating the almost universal bias among the mass media with his "Fake News" strategy, including the use of his personal Twitter account. How many other anti-establishment candidates would have managed this? The sufficient factor enabling victory was of course conveniently provided by his opponent.

I agree with your characterization of the 2 dominant moods among the electorate. I believe Trump could still pull it off, but he'll have to address the turmoil. This will require victory to be declared in the trade war. A similar victory declaration re Afghanistan should help and then there is the wildcard of where the unraveling of the Russiagate coup plot goes. On the last one Trump darn well ought to have enough ammo to bury the Dems for a generation, if he is minded to use it.

John Minehan

Yeah, I think that covers it quite well . . . .

John Minehan

The better advice is to hedge the consensus. It is, for example, how Taleb made his fortune.

John Minehan

It also depends, per Nassim Nickolas Taleb, on your having "Skin In The Game."

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