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28 August 2019


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John Minehan

ms up the answer to this: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3017498/one-country-winning-trade-war-its-not-us-and-its-not-china


Taleb’s thesis is not hedging but buying cheap insurance for tail risk. Two different things.

John Minehan

Good news for Brazil https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-us-isnt-winning-trumps-trade-war-everyone-is-losing

John Minehan

I think this has some merit https://fortune.com/2019/08/16/trump-china-trade-war-winner-data/.

The real answer is that this is a big advantage to Vietnam, Brazil and other similarly situated countries.

John Minehan

I liked Stillwell and teh American Experiance in China. She had a knack for telling a story as well as presenting information.

Barbara Ann

As I said here shortly after his election, Trump has tremendous skin in the game. The day he took office the fortunes of the brand Trump became inextricably linked to his presidency. If he is impeached, or otherwise fails spectacularly he will be ruined and his whole family will become outcasts.

Barbara Ann

One of the reasons Trump is consistently underestimated is pure and simple intellectual snobbery. He is boorish, so assumed to be an oaf. I have no difficulty saying he is brilliant. It may not be the socially acceptable kind of brilliance, but that does not change the fact.

Given the potential for deadly consequences, I imagine in your world (GB and particularly in MI) any such prejudice is quickly rooted or trained out.


''This will require victory to be declared in the trade war. ''

Don't worry about Trump's trade war. Trump will declare 'victory' in the trade war whether or not it is an actual victory...lol....just keep reading his tweets.

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