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28 August 2019

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Mightypeon

The FSB is not really Ruusias CIA equvalent though. It is more akin to an unholy alliance of homeland security and the FBI. GRU is kind of like DIA + the army, navy, air force and marine intelligence. Closest thing to the CIA Russia has would be the SVR, but their overall remit is still somewhat different.

Oscar Peterson

Nice laydown. One really needs this sort of step-by-step letdown to get and keep the facts straight.

Some sort of link chart/diagram that could be updated as needed would be great.

Between the DNC emails, the Steele faux-dossier, Seth Rich, Guccifer 2.0, and whatever connection there might be to Skripal and the British, it's really challenging to keep all the players and actions in the right relationship to one another.

One side question: Where does DC Leaks fit into this?

Stephen McIntyre

Larry, one important permutation to keep in mind as a possibility is that Russia did hack DNC, but weren't the Wikileaks source. In case you haven't read it, there's a fascinating interview with Marc Elias of Perkins Coie https://shift.newco.co/2017/03/09/Russia-Hacked-Our-Election--So-When-Are-We-Going-to-Get-Serious-About-That-/#.ypivj1847 in which Elias was initially unconcerned when he learned that DNC had been hacked by Russia. You'll be interested in interview.

Elias said: "I don’t mean to be dismissive about it, but at some level if the question was, “The Russians want to know how we run elections so that when Hillary Clinton is president, they have a better sense of the role that the party plays in our system versus the White House.”"

In other words, Elias and leading Democrats had no objection to Russia knowing how the DNC "ran elections"; but they strenuously objected to ordinary Americans knowing how the DNC "ran elections". Indeed, it was the provision of this information to ordinary Americans that they characterized as a "threat" to American democracy.

Turning back to your point: APT28 and APT29 (Fancy Bear and Cosy Bear) were well known hackers, but their prior modus operandi was simply to observe. Mueller's link between DNC hack and delivery of emails to Wikileaks is almost entirely arm-waving.

This leaves open the possibility that DNC was hacked by Russians but it was Seth Rich (or perhaps someone at MISDepartment) who exfiltrated emails to Wikileaks.


walrus

Assange is going to get what Epstein got.

JerseyJeffersonian

Ja, more extra-judicial assassinations. Yeah, team. The descent into post-Constitutional America gathers momentum.

turcopolier

You pays your money and you takes your chances.

Tom Wonacott
I cannot prove at this time that the Crowdstrike story about Russian hacking was cooked up after the 25th of May, but I can prove, based on the public claims by Crowdstrike's CEO, that no action was taken to stop Russians from spearphising until the 10th of June.

1. Consider the words by Ray McGovern - a member of VIPS and a partner of Bill Binney (https://consortiumnews.com/2017/01/20/obama-admits-gap-in-russian-hack-case/)

“………Does the Russian government hack, as many other governments do? Of course. Did it hack the emails of the Democratic National Committee? Almost certainly, though it was likely not alone in doing so. In the Internet age, hacking is the bread and butter of intelligence agencies. If Russian intelligence did not do so, this would constitute gross misfeasance, especially since the DNC was such easy pickings and the possibility of gaining important insights into the U.S. government was so high…….”

Therefore, a hack of the DNC was not only a possibility, but it was extremely likely according to McGovern - so there did not have to be a conspiracy that involved Crowdstrike or the cybersecurity firms that corroborated the results of Crowdstrike like Fireeye since evidence of a Russian hack would have been on the DNC computer (Wikipedia).

Other cybersecurity firms, Fidelis Cybersecurity and FireEye, independently reviewed the malware and came to the same conclusion as CrowdStrike—that expert Russian hacking groups were responsible for the breach.[24]

Of course, this is not evidence that the GRU gave the information to WikiLeaks.

2. The Russian government had a strong motive to elect Trump (or keep Hillary from being elected). As a side note, Julian Assange also clearly favored the election of Trump over Hillary Clinton. First, Putin accused HRC of interfering in the Russian parliamentary elections in 2012 (Why Putin hates Hillary http://politi.co/2EwrOVM via @politico):

 “She said they were dishonest and unfair,” Putin fumed in public remarks, saying that Clinton gave “a signal” to demonstrators working “with the support of the U.S. State Department” to undermine his power. “We need to safeguard ourselves from this interference in our internal affairs,”

Hillary was seen by Putin as supporting regime change in Russia - “a grave threat to his own survival”. Additionally, Hillary favored a no fly zone in Syria - and challenging Russia. Hillary was also a very important supporter of Ukraine independence while supporting the strong sanction against Russia. She was behind the regime change in Libya. HRC was a hawk on foreign policy supported by many neoconservatives.

This was all in contrast to Trump. Putin and Trump formed a mutual admiration society. Trump ran on a more isolationist US foreign policy and building better relations with Russia i.e., more likely to favor a multipolar world. Trump criticized NATO - and the war in Syria.

3. Assange had every motive to hide the Russians role in giving him the emails (considering his known relationship with RT) - and create a conspiracy theory that the “hack” was an inside job despite the WikiLeaks policy of NEVER revealing the source. Assange seems to have made an exception by implicating Seth Rich. Why?

Additionally, if Assange knows that Rich is the source of the emails, he certainly would have proof considering he supposedly communicated with Seth Rich numerous times as you outline:

But I have confirmed through a knowledgeable source that communications between Seth Rich and Wikileaks are in the hands of the U.S. intelligence community

Why not disclose that proof now before he is extradited to the US. What is the point of withholding evidence that would certainly implicate the US government in a conspiracy!? Indeed, he should welcome the chance to prove US Intel wrong, but he clearly fears extradition.

Assange also communicated with Guccifer 2.0 after the death of Seth Rich to receive emails. What is the source of information which suggests that “the documents posted by Guccifer 2.0 appear to be deliberately crafted to show "Russian" involvement”?

4. I can’t comment on the FAT file. Maybe that is definitive proof of a download. However, I can say that Binney and McGovern have tried everything to disprove this was an outside hack including promoting the hack was done by the US government using vault 7 tools and the attempt to show that the download speed (incorrectly) proved that it was an inside job. The release of vault 7 by WikiLeaks plays far better to the idea that Assange was trying to muddy the Russian hack accusation by US Intel. This latest attempt (FAT file) needs to be addressed by US Intel or any expert in cybersecurity - and it is a good point by the author.

Finally, this is a very complex theory that US Intel was behind the “hack” to blame Russia and entrap Trump without anyone (that I am aware of) coming forward and leaking the truth. I find it fascinating that US intel could put together something so elaborate and fail with the last piece of the "coup" - the Special Prosecutor, Mueller. Mueller indicted the IRA and 12 GRU agents, but failed to find any collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Jim Ticehurst

Larry..Keep Fishing Bud..I won a Fishing Derby..By Leaving My Bait out after everyone else quit and Reeled In..Caught the Biggest Game Fish..And Door Prize for Biggest Bottom Fish..Split the Money with My coworkers on the Boat...

Anyhow..You Pushed me to Do some research on COZY BEAR..My Most interesting Three Reads were the ""Cozy Bear" Wikipedia Site and all the Timelines and Who was Hacked Where..Ukraine..Germany..France TV Station..US..White House..DOD..etc..

The Second Read was Microsofts Lawsuit againt Cozy Bear Operators..with fascinating Details on The Means...and Methods..

The Third Read was an Article in The "Irish Times"..April 8..2018..by Peter Clusky..Called.."Dutch JSCU..Alerted the United States to Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear Attacks.." That was in the Summer of 2015..

Jane

Is there any similar analysis of the attempted hacks against the state election rolls in 2017 or of the Facebook ads also attributed to Russia?

Fred

Jane,

Which alleged attack in which state or county? There are a lot of countries in the US.

Jim Ticehurst

Larry...I have reread your very good Thinking on this matter Five times...Then I looked at the Questions You were asking..Those Questions all Point in the Right Direction..Then I did a long Research into The Hacking...All Could be Easily done By BOTH Bears..The American from New Jersey and The Russian..His Co Founder.and I Suspect they DID....who Both Are out to Attack Russia For their Own Reasons and Experiences.There..i/e is a lot of Background Data on Both Wiki and other Profiles..Those TWO Are capable of Hacking and Giving "Tips" to anyone in The World..Since they are Primary Contractors One ALL Government Computers..When They Recommended Shutting Down The DNC Computer systems and Telling All employees to leave their Lap Tops on Their Stations..That was The Opportunity to Go In..Get everyons Data..Download Thumb Drives..and Maybe Catch Seth Rich.....These Guys have Access to ALL Government Computers..All Probably Most Others Globally too...and Manipulate Without Detection..They Are The SECURITY Experts..

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