Tour d'horizon - 1 July 2019

1.  Canada Day - Everyone wears shorts - It probably won't snow today in Canada.

2.  China Trade - IMO the Chinese Communist Party and China have no intention of accepting a future in which the Middle Kingdom is other than the dominant world power.  In that context the Chinese will probably make some sort of deal with the US to take the heat off their declining economy- more Chinese purchases of US goods - paper agreements on Chinese underhanded trade practices but nothing that amounts to a basic Chinese change of policy.

3.  North Korea - Look to see a limited US/NOKO agreement on a freezing of nuclear status rather than a removal of NOKO nuclear weapons.  Trump is a practical man who wants apparent success before 2020 bites him.  He correctly, IMO, sees that a North Korea flooded with foreign capital, investment and consumer goods will be set on a path that the North Korean Communist Party will not be able to control.  It is interesting how much more control Trump has over Korean policy than he has over Cuba policy or the evolving disaster in the ME.  Why?  There is no Korean-American pressure bloc, nor the Zionist juggernaut.

4.  Hong Kong - The Chinese Communist Party will suppress autonomy in Hong Kong.  It is just a matter of time.  Socialist governments inevitably become more and more repressive and are required to rule through fear and police coercion.  A Hong Kong that defies centralized Communist rule is a threat to the party throughout the country.  It is just a matter of time.

5.  Turkey - The Neo-Ottomans are in the process of devouring large parts of northern Syria.  This process is something like an anaconda slowing engulfing a large animal.  We are now in the phase of this devouring in which there is a lot of nonsense about de-militarized zones, supposed cease fires, entrenched Turkish "observation posts" placed so as to keep the SAA and friends from getting at HTS and the other jihadis in Idlib Province.  If successful this will be followed by plebiscites and petitions by local puppet government for annexation.  This Turkish process of acquiring northern Syria is  greatly assisted by the continuing Bolton/Pompeo/neocon policy of regime change in Syria.  Under the sway of this policy we continue to do our best to impede the reconstruction of Syria and refugee return with all sorts of baloney in the MSM about Syrian government atrocities against returning Syrians.  We also are doing everything possible to discourage a Syria Kurd-Syrian government rapprochement.  IMO Trump has delegated attention on this to the neocons in his house and should take this function away from them in this area.

5. Iran - We continue  to squeeze Iran into a smaller and smaller space  in the belief that their knees will buckle and that they will then accept an Israeli view of their future, one in which they are rug manufactures and pistachio growers for the world under Israeli tutelage.  IMO this is nonsense.  They will not accept that any more than the Palestinians will accept Jared Kushner's vision of a re-birth of King Solomon's mythic realm in which Palestinians are perpetual serfs.  Eventually, the Iranians will fight us.

6.  Tucker  Carlson as a replacement for the 'stache?  Good idea!  Make the 'stache ambassador to Turkey or Israel.  pl

Comments

[Eugene Owens]

Tidewater -

I don’t have an answer. Back four years ago when they first set up the Qatar-Turkey Combined Joint Force Command there were only about 100. It was a mix but mostly HQ personnel. Two years ago when the Saudis and Emiratis started threatening Qatar it was supposedly beefed up with five to six hundred troops. They have probably sent many more by now. I've also seen the 3000 figure.

Probably a lot of Turkish civilians there also. They have opened Turkish schools, a hospital, and cultural center in Qatar. Plus Turkish engineers and technician. Undoubtedly paid for with Qatari Riyals. And the Turks are getting Qatari LNG, probably at a good discount.

[Thirdeye]

Nailed it. Large industrial combines with heavy state intervention and a labyrinth of rules for foreigners doing business have been features of east Asian economies since the rise of Imperial Japan. That sort of national project enterprise is how Mitsubishi originated. Then we saw essentially the same thing with the Chaebols of South Korea and now we're seeing it in China. I suspect that the current paradigm of Chinese economic development is more about emulating the Japanese model than any leftover CCP ideology. It grates on our Western sensibilities but it is effective.

[Tidewater]

Thanks. I've started to try to pay more attention. I always took Turkey for granted. No longer. It looks like the S-500 has reached a decisive stage and is going into production. This is big news. And Turkey will have a hand in producing it! Also, some of the billions in Qatar investment in Turkish banks etc. is being pulled out. Loss of faith?

I think we should look for a major provocation by Iran or Iranian proxies on July 4, tomorrow.

[Tidewater]

I think I just lost a post when I tested the link I provided. I am going to provide it again without checking to see if it works. 'Tour d'horizon' means 'overview' and my feeling is that we are now inside the horizon. Therefore what I am recommending here is relevant, if not exactly about China. Are you familiar with a Melbourne organization called Breakthrough-National Centre for Climate Restoration? They can be found at breakthroughonline.org.au

They are bringing out videos and publications designed for discussion groups. I am reading one of their papers now by David Spratt and Ian Dunlop. 'Existential climate-related security risk. A scenario approach.' There is a foreward by Admiral Chris Barrie, AC RAN Retired. They also have a video on YouTube called: 'Homefront: Australian Military Leaders on Climate Emergency.'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQjTPsOXkCU&t=

If this link fails the google link will get anyone curious there. I find these folks to be impressive. Also, it's fun hearing it in the indigenous language, which I believe is called 'Strine.'

[Barbara Ann]

Tidewater

Would flying an RC-135 into Iranian airspace with the transponder spoofed to an Iranian code on the anniversary of the USS Vincennes shoot down of Iranian civil flight 655 be classed as a major provocation?

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/07/on-eve-of-4th-of-july-parade-us-attempts-to-lure-iran-into-shooting-down-another-us-plane.html

[Eugene Owens]

Tidewater -

There has been discussion in Turkish Cypriot newspapers regarding stationing S-400s in northern Cyprus. A bad mistake IMHO, as it would put them at risk. But if true it could be they are going to try to enforce their claim on potential offshore natural gas fields.

[Eugene Owens]

BA -

What USAF or RAF general would be stupid enough to use a 100 million dollar aircraft with 30 crewmembers as bait to start a war? If they were going to do that why not use a fighter, maybe a Wild Weasel armed with radar homing missiles.

Moon needs to lay off the moonshine.

[seydlitz]

is not HK Chinese taken originally by the British at gun point,the west cannot intimidate a nation of 1.5 billion people who have a nuclear arsenal.,

[John Minehan]

Chinese history tends, even more than most countries, to be a cycle of "booms and busts." The improvement of living standards in the PRC since 1979 is an enormous achievement.

The problem is that, if Chinese history is an indicator, it can collapse nearly as rapidly.

The efforts of the Party, post-Tiananmen Square have been to avoid another crisis and further instability by increasing living standards while keeping a higher level of social control by the government than would be acceptable in the West.

So far, it has worked. One Belt/One Road ("OBOR') is probably focused more on stability within the PRC than on the PRC's economic place in the World.

It gives the "Young Emperors," with family money behind them a chance to build a place in the world (and avoid getting involved in Politics or Social Movements in the PRC). Thus, OBOR might have value even if he does not have short-term economic returns that justify it. on the other hand, Xi becoming leader for life, neutralizes a significant advantage the PRC had over other authoritarian systems: a clearer and less arbitrary system for succession.

The PRC has the potential to be the greatest, most hegemonic economic and cultural power the world has ever seen . . . or the biggest basket case.

[John Minehan]

Athens and Sparta clashed. Thebes (and, later, Macedon) won.

As Kurt Vonnegut said, "So it goes."

[John Minehan]

But, past a certain point, that kind of structure may (or may not) be competitive. Japanese keiretsu have not been beneficial to Japan in the "Lost Decade" (going on almost 30 years at this point) period.

[John Minehan]

i think this VASTLY over-estimates our capabilities and ambitions . . . .

[John Minehan]

It is in many places.

But that is the problem (including for governments run by people of the Islamic faith, that operate on other principles).

[John Minehan]

Well, the PRC HAD a good system for selecting the top leaders . . . until Xi altered it . . . .

[John Minehan]

Well, in 1989, the PRC did not control Hong Kong. Now, they both control it and are responsible for it.

Let's see what they do.

[John Minehan]

Quiet obviously . . . unless the system fails.

[turcopolier]

John Minehan

So, the CCP had it right until Xi took over?

[John Minehan]

They had what most authoritarian systems lack: a good plan for succession. During the period of the Reign of the Five Good Emperors/Nerva–Antonine dynasty, the Principate had it too.

[John Minehan]

https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4b73cd512.pdf The system in the PRC is flawed . . . but pragmatic and adoptable . . . but what recent changes mean is an open question.