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21 June 2019


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It is a tough nut. Since this offensive started 0n 30 April the SAA has hardly made a dent in Idlib. And although they did well early taking Kafr Nabudah and Qalaat al-Madiq plus surrounding villages, those are all in Hama Governate not Idlib. Seems they have perhaps liberated just a small area in Idlib near Qusaybiyah and Wadi al-Jurah. Perhaps 4th Armored can help expand that toehold.

In addition to the ATGMs and AA provided by Turkey to the rebels, the Tiger forces say the Turks have also given them Panthera APCs. Plus there is a report on Fars News that Turkey has also provided direct artillery fire in support of both HTS and TIP jihadis.



As for Moscow's calculus? My simple mind says they want to pull Turkey out of NATO. Yet they have supported Syria for almost 75 years and had their Tartus port for almost 50. So they walk a fine line. Plus they recognize that HTS and other jihadis are one of the biggest threats to their internal security due to the large (10 million) Muslim population in Russia. They'll do their best to support Assad and destroy HTS, yet at the same time they will continue to schmooze and coddle Erdogan.

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