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18 June 2019

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eakens

Here's an interesting side piece that we saw coming here a long time ago...

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-in-israel-with-netanyahu-at-her-side-miriam-adelson-places-her-bet-for-2024-1.7376446

prawnik

Even Bellingcat is skeptical. Bellingcat.

https://washingtonsblog.com/2019/06/officials-worldwide-ridicule-claim-that-iran-attacked-tankers-in-gulf-of-oman.html

I find myself agreeing with Bellingcat on something. I feel so dirty and ashamed.

Hallabina

Worrying...But, do you think CENTCOM and SOCOM are such maleable?

I use to watch these videos by Vesti News to get an idea what is going on in Russia, at least at level of public opinion ( this is broadcasting public TV, as it is now warned in Youtube..)

Colonel Lang, what is your opinion on what this man ( who is introduced alternatively as "social activist", "Israeli public figure", "social leader", wheatever, which I find somewhat strange...)is saying?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sw0DuAh5Rg8

O'Shawnessey

Oh, Iran did it. Not sure whether to laugh or cry. Have we really sunk this low as a society? Apparently, yes, and so I reckon that when the Hegemon breaks (three years? four?), the consequences for us will make life in Moscow in 1995 look positively luxurious by comparison.

Erkenntnis

Trump may be ill-informed but he's acutely aware of what is- and more importantly, what is not- in his political interest, at least on an intuitive level. And the political risk of war with Iran is too high, the outcome too uncertain, for him to strike Iran over tankers, drones and a few inconsequential rockets in Bilad. He'd fire Bolton before risking a war that might cost him reelection. Unless Iran raises the stakes to a level that provides Trump political cover with his base, I'd wager we see negotiations before bloodshed.

Turcopolier

hallabina - Shanahan withdrew his name from confirmation process today. IMO he did it because DJT let Pomp circumvent his authority.

Cortes

It’s depressing that the rest of the world may be coming to consider the West, which laid the foundation and built the structure of the modern world as

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Cried_Wolf

The term “nonagreementcapable” is horrible.


David Solomon

What is absolutely certain (at least to me) is that the world does not need another US led war.

blue peacock

If Trump wants to lose his re-election, he'll be swayed by Bolton & Pompeo into foolishly attacking Iranian assets. Iran is not Assad who was willing to take the hits even if it was based on false pretenses. The Saudis and Bibi will be miscalculating if they believe Iran will sit tight. While they may eventually be destroyed, the initial conflagration will help Bernie & Tulsi to get a lot of airtime as they will be the contrary opposition voices.

walrus

I would assume that Trumps staff are selling him the “very quick surgical strike that will produce instant results” option. This is what was contemplated by Germany in both world wars. Everyone knew a long war would be economically ruinous, so they just eliminated such a possibility from their thinking.

Eugene Owens

Let us hope you are right. But if not, Trump would not be the first head-of-state to gin up a war in order to bolster his chances for re-election.

Harlan Easley

The same foreign policy agenda has been followed since the 1990s. No matter who was/is President. 100% certainty regime change of Iran is part of this policy. Some may point to the Iran Deal Obama made but it was only a hunting blind. On his watch Libya was destroyed and the attempt to destroy Syria by arming Salfaist was approved by him. The President's are cowed by the extreme external pressure imposed on them by a certain faction. Probably the only way to get elected and self-preservation of political career and maybe biological life comes into play.

Fred

Eugene,

Only the neocons and Israelis want a war. Trump would not only lose but given his failure to 'drain the swamp' and recent pronouncements by Pelosi, Gildebrand, Harris etc., he, his family and political supporters would be further investigated and jailed. All the more reason to fire Pompeo and Bolton before they allow their own animus to destroy his foreign policy and by extension any chance at re-election.

ted richard

if violence arrives i expect the window to begin soon... june 26-7 thru july 8-9.

watch the gold price, the cycle is right for a short powerful upthrust through 1360-64 june monthly close which if it occurs leads to something bigger. the move thus far is telegraphing something just over the horizon which will be used as the raison d'etre for golds advance.

different clue

We should start referring to the Persian Gulf as the " Gliewitz Gulf". Trump wouldn't get it, of course. Would Pompeo and Bolton get it? The level of their anger upon hearing "Gliewitz Gulf" would indicate the amount of their getting it.

This is a good time for any Democratic Nomination-pursuer to start running explicitly on having America re-enter the JCPOA and also on declaring non-belief in the building "Iran Diddit" narrative. Such Democrats could use phrases like " Remember the Slam-Dunk?" . . . " Remember the Powell UN Speech?" " Remember the Yellowcake?" . . . " Remember the Curveball?"

The Catfood Democrats all support the Iran Diddit narrative. But 3 of the Decent Democrats might well oppose it. Gravel and Gabbard would certainly oppose it. Sanders "could" oppose it in public if he is willing to take a Las Vegas gamble.

Valissa

For what it's worth, here is a ~5 min clip of Pompeo being interviewed by MSNBC.

Mike Pompeo: ‘President Trump Does Not Want War’ with Iran https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/06/18/mike-pompeo-president-trump-does-not-want-war-with-iran/
Tuesday while speaking to reporters after meeting with U.S. Central Command leaders at the command’s headquarters in Tampa, FL, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said President Donald Trump did not want to go to war with Iran.

The Twisted Genius

I'm not at all convinced Trump's base is against striking Iran. They've been conditioned to think Iran is the source of all evil as have many across the political spectrum. If Trump thought a strike would be enthusiastically cheered by his base in one of his "Triumph of the Will" rallies, he'd be inclined to strike. If he thinks such a strike would produce an uptick in his poll numbers, he may also be inclined to strike. OTOH, he is a bullshit artist full of bluster and bluff. That may be enough to keep him from being stupid in the Gulf.

eakens

Trumps base only gets him so far. He needs all the people that voted for Obama last time that swung over to him for his anti war stance.

walrus

When I hear people saying: “President Trump does not want war with Iran “ I think to myself: "The lady doth protest too much, methinks".

patrick

use to watch these videos by Vesti News to get an idea what is going on in Russia, at least at level of public opinion. But we have more problem than history but good Articles

Anonymous

Some here need to do a little research into ied's used in iraq.There are many us veterans with.........

to-deaths-of-500-u-s-troops-in-iraq-afghanistan/

turcopolier

Anonymous

War should not be waged because of a desire for revenge. To do so is childish. Should we seek revenge upon Germany, Japan or Vietnam? The Iranians supported our enemies during the Iraq resistance to our occupation? So what? Perhaps we should bomb Tokyo again. My mother thought so but she was ignorant and childish.

Turcopolier

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/trumps-defense-nominee-addresses-violent-incident-between-ex-wife-son-amid-fbi-vetting-process/2019/06/18/e46009de-190b-11e9-a804-c35766b9f234_story.html?utm_term=.39974960e1e7

An awful story that set the scene for Shanahan's withdrawal, the Pompean usurpation was the final trigger.

Eric Newhill

TTG,
As part of Trump's base and as someone in communication with other members of Trump's base, we don't want a war with Iran or anywhere else in the world. We want a border wall/illegal immigration/cessation of foreign invasion and existing illegals deported. That's where we want to see our military directed.

Trump's a BS artist? Well the economy is doing pretty well do in large part to his wise deregulations and general pro-America stance; and no one is confiscating our guns or mandating that our sons take female hormones and wear dresses; or confiscating our hard earned money for "reparations". If that represents BS, I like BS. Can you tell me which of the Democrats isn't a major socialist BS artist (this should be interesting)? Oh yeah, why of course! Tulsi's going to take on the Borg successfully - in between socialist policy implementation - if we give her a chance. Okie dokie.

Bill H

You keep saying things that made me wish we had the "like" button. To agree with you is a bit arrogant. You don't need my agreement. A "like" button says that I appreciate your insight.

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