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29 May 2019

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This move by Neyanyahu is going to really hurt Likud in the next election. People vote Likud because of their perception that Netanyahu is a strong leader. Now that Netanyahu is stll facing criminal charges and has shown his weakness for all to see, I suspect Likud to reduce their representation from 25 seats to 20 or 21 in the next election. The problem Netanyahu had in forming a new coalition is his right wing minority parties are split between religious and secular priorities. For example, Yisrael Beitenui leader Lieberman refused to back down on his demand that the religious no longer be granted a exemption from IDF service. The religious right wing refused to participate in a coalition that was so obviously anti-religious.

The moderate Blue and White party leady by Benny Gantz which got the same 25 seats as Likud in the previous election might be in a position to form a new government in this next election as Israel tires of the Netanyahu personality style of governing. The moderate/Left parties may gain in the next election if Arab turnout returns to its normal patterns after a weak showing in the last election and the Labor party regains some of its historical support.

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