"The United States has more than 5,000 troops stationed in Iraq, which has a State Department waiver from sanctions allowing it to keep purchasing electricity from Iran. U.S. forces are also based in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
Iraq has a number of Shiite militia groups, backed and trained by Iran, that have criticized the U.S. designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, an elite branch of Iran’s military, as a terrorist organization.
The Persian Gulf includes critical sea lanes for oil shipments, particularly at the Strait of Hormuz. As U.S. sanctions have dried up many markets for Iran’s oil, Tehran has threatened to close the strait. When Bahrain objected, an Iranian official responded: “Mind your small size and do not threaten someone bigger than yourself.”
The White House announced Sunday that the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its escort ships are in the Mediterranean and have been en route to the Persian Gulf region since early April.
Washpost
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I am told that the Israelis have told the neocon claque (Bolton, Pompeo, etc.) that the Iranians are preparing to attack the large number of US personnel in Iraq. This may or may not be true, but, if it is, it would provide a predicate (popular word these days) for the US war against Iran that Israel very much wants. There might even be a whiff of gas in the air. Who knows?
So, Pompey the Great is off to Baghdad to tell them wogs to behave and be prepared to be supported as an independent and sovereign country. Understand?
A problem with this is the existence of a lot of Shia militias in Iraq who don't want US personnel to be in Iraq at all and who would react to any aggressive action against Iran with dire ferocity.
Trump is AWOL on this except in the sense that he is a more or less silent partner, but, IMO a war of choice against Iran would kill his chances of re-election. pl
What friends do the Iranians have -- friends, that is, who are capable of launching a meaningful attack, or even defense?
I'm not convinced Putin would jeopardize his relationships w/ US and Bibi.
The Chinese?
Posted by: Artemesia | 09 May 2019 at 11:33 AM
You are right and I was wrong. I've done some research and the initial production cut was 5%, but eventually production was gradually cut down to 25% of pre-embargo levels. Clearly I need to double check what I am told rather than just believing it.
That said - I think an abrupt disruption of oil exports through the Straight of Hormuz could cause hordeing which in turn could cause greater scarcity, resulting in a nasty feedback loop.
Posted by: JamesT | 09 May 2019 at 04:21 PM
Whats interesting re ME oil is we don't need it but the countries in our global tied economy do....that is our only (valid) interest in the ME ...all our other interest are about Israel.
Last time I checked the US got less than 20% of its oil from the ME...could easily be made up for with oil from Canada and S.Amer.
Trump floated the idea of selling off half of US emergency Oil reserves...don't know if that has been done yet, will check.
But very stupid thing to do if his puppet masters intend to blow up Iran.
Unless of course the US also intends to invade Venezuela and take over their oil. ...lol
Posted by: catherine | 09 May 2019 at 05:11 PM
''What I guess has been discovered is something that has long been predicted. It must be that Iran has put TELs ''
Well I have Israel Derangement Syndrome so my 'guess' is that 90% of what is told about Iran right now is misinformation.
But my derangement syndrome is backed up by historical experience....its been the always the same old same old with Israel from the beginning.
No. 546
The Secretary of State to the Embassy in Israel
Washington, January 22, 1953—7:27 p.m.secret
702. Embassy requested investigate without divulging source and report soonest following information received by Department:
After Major Nutov, Israel MAC representative, failed recently induce DeRidder modify his attitude in MAC he informed DeRidder Israel would denounce Local Commanders Agreement with effect January 22 on pretext Jordan failure to honor agreement. Agreement expires automatically January 31 and is subject discussion by MAC 10 days before expiration. After verifying this Israel intention with Gaon, chief Israel MAC delegate, on January 13 DeRidder so informed Jordan MAC representative.
DeRidder stated he had received strong impression Israel would stage series incidents on Egyptian, Syrian, Lebanese and Jordan borders with motive demonstrating Arab misuse of arms supplied by British since US has refused intervene. He mentioned specifically Qatanna where no demarcation line exists. DeRidder gave as additional reasons for anticipated Israel action: (1) Perturbation at recent series of adverse MAC decisions, e.g. Scopus, and Israel failure redress balance, and (2) failure win UN support for direct Arab-Israel peace negotiations.
If DeRidder’s estimate Israel intentions accurate Israel obviously confident well-timed propaganda can obscure fact of Israel aggression and place onus on Arabs. Various elements of information at hand seem to bear out DeRidder’s contention that denunciation of Local Commanders Agreement is precursor to some important Israel action along border.
Dulles
https://history.state.gov/search?q=Israel&within=documents&start-date=1944-01-01&end-date=1967-01-01&sort-by=relevance
Posted by: catherine | 09 May 2019 at 05:24 PM
If the strait were closed, the U.S. would not be hurt directly because we are self-sufficient in Oil. However, most of the rest of the world would be economically hurt pretty badly. This will cause a global recession and indirectly hurt the U.S. economy with a major slow down in exports.
I doubt that the US can put enough troops on the ground in Iran to keep the entire coast line safe from anti-ship missiles hit slow moving tankers. Even the threat of such missiles will keep tankers in port.
Posted by: jdledell | 09 May 2019 at 06:35 PM
Hoarding by whom using what to store oil/gasoline/diesel in any meaningful manner to create a global feedback loop?
Posted by: Fred | 09 May 2019 at 08:10 PM
According to Wikipedia:
I think if the Secretary of Defense sent an order to the Joint Chiefs, they would not be likely to go back and inquire whether the President had ordered this or not, but turcopole would know much better than me.
Posted by: Procopius | 09 May 2019 at 10:57 PM
Ok, though I like the tags "El Gordo" for our wonderful amiga in the White House, Fred Reed's "malignant manatee" is both more accurate and nicely alliterative:
Reed: "We have Pompeo, a malignant manatee looking to start wars in which he will not risk his flabby amorphous ass also parading his Christianity. Bolton, a mean sonofabitch who belongs in a strait jacket, at least doesn’t pose as someone having a soul. And the Golden Tufted Cockatoo, too weak to control those around him, preening and tweeting. God save us."
Posted by: O'Shawnessey | 10 May 2019 at 09:11 AM
"flabby amorphous ass?" Gordito? First in his class?
Posted by: turcopolier | 10 May 2019 at 09:42 AM
I think that you are asking very good questions. If you look up Noor (missile) in Wikipedia there is a photo of TEL launch system with trucks. The Wiki entry on "Dhofar," the rebellion in southern Oman during the late sixties to early seventies, gives a sketch of the war we never heard of, a war that some consider to have been more important than Vietnam.
From what I have read, not only, as you note, does Iran have submarines, but Iran has developed a new class of what are called "littoral" submarines. Iran also has three Kilo class subs berthed at Chabahar, which is out of the Gulf on the Indian Ocean, as well as the North Korean type minisubs. All of these subs have the capability of laying mines. Further, some of the mines are very effective, capable apparently of driving an explosive charge upwards into the bottom of a ship, by using a rocket propulsion system. (?) This is a very real threat to US Navy control of the straits of Hormuz and to mine clearing operations thre.
On February 20, Orkhan Jalilov had an article in the Caspian News "New Iranian-Made Submarine Is Equipped With Cruise Missiles." This sub, called "Fateh" is not considered to be particularly sophisticated, but it can dive to a depth of 600 feet and stay down for 35 days. It carries 8 sea mines, can launch 4 torpedoes with two in reserve, and can launch from from underwater the Nasr-1 short range (35 miles) antiship missile.
Iran's capability of launching underwater is regarded as a wake-up call by John Miller, an Associate Fellow, Non-proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme of IISS. On March 6, 2019, "Iran's new threat to ships in the Gulf", Miller comments that while the Fateh submarine is not "enormously capable" "the Gulf is a small and crowded maritime space and not a friendly body of water for conducting anti-submarine warfare. The environment favours relatively small diesel submarines with a limited capability to attack surface ships, and the introduction of that capability by Iran is a matter of concern."
Miller goes on to note the obvious that Iran is now modernising its air-defence capabilities learning to use the S-300 system. Iran is also, he notes, improving "its over-the-horizon surveillance capablities--especially through the use of unmanned aerial vehicles..." My view of the significance of Iran's development of drone systems is that it is very big news which is not being reported on enough. This means a carrier group could be tracked for days or even weeks across the vastness of the southern Indian Ocean. And then there is the fact that Iran can put a satellite into orbit, and I assume, has one or two up now.
By my count Iran has now had at least 17 months to develop proficiency in the S-300 system. There might have been Iranians in Russia going back to 2016 being schooled on the weapon. I think it ought to be underlined that Iran got the S-300 PMU-2 Variant, which, if you happen to be into rugs, is the difference, as the auctioneer will tell you, between the plain old Sarouk and the ROYAL Sarouk. This sucker is the ROYAL one and it will definitely fuck-up a B-52; or for that matter, a new P-8 off a carrier coordinating with the Desron ASW community trying to get into range to drop sonar listening devices in the Gulf of Oman to track a sub. Get within a hundred and twenty miles of the S-300 and that's it for the 'strike package.'
Posted by: Tidewater | 10 May 2019 at 01:09 PM