Random Tuesday thoughts- 23 april 2019

• Marcus, my avatar and muse seems in good voice today.  This reminds me of the scene in "Tears of the Sun" in which the column passes under a jungle tree limb on which sits a magnificent male mandrill.  I have seen many baboons but, alas, never a mandrill.
• Bernie Sanders says that Bibi is a racist and that the US should treat the Palestinians as though they were equally human in their captive nation plight.  Heavens!  Such statements will never do!  Perhaps he should be de-circumcised, or at least deprived of any support from the righteous.
• The US government, having failed thus far to uproot Hizbullah from its home territory in Lebanon now proposes a reward for suggestions as to how to accomplish this.  The Israelis want Hizbullah, a Lebanese Shia movement, army and political party to be gone but are at a loss as to how to achieve that goal.  The IDF ground forces got a bloody nose in 2006 when the Gucci generation of Israeli conscripts were sent to fight in the Tabbouleh Line complex of fortified villages, tank traps and canalized killing zones.  They do not want to do that again, but the tens of thousands of Hizbullah missiles and artillery rockets that threaten Israeli counter-value targets (towns) are a true strategic threat for which the IDF has no solution.  Well pilgrims, Occam's Razor provides the only viable (irony) answer to the problem.  This would be a heavy bomber stream provided by USAF proceeding to devastate a strip of south Lebanon  for the purpose of eradicating Hizbullah.  What would this suggestion be worth in dollars to some think tank like RAND or IDA?
• I suspect that what Trump wishes to conceal in his financial records and tax returns is that he is nothing like as rich as he pretends to be.  One of the elements of the psychology of entrepreneurial hustlers like him is a relentless need to exaggerate his own importance and to puff himself up and preen like a tropical bird in mating season.  He is probably cash poor.
  
• The Democrats surely know that they have zero chance of impeaching Trump before 2020.  Only dimwits and fanatics can think otherwise.  No, what they are aiming for in their campaign of harassment is to diminish the man enough in the public mind to beat him in that election.  This tactic may well backfire on them.  They look incredibly petty in doing this.
• The Sri Lanka jihadi attacks on Easter Sunday are not something that should surprise.  The jihadis see themselves as waging war against Christianity.  They foolishly hope to break the will of Christian believers.  What better place to find Christian believers than at Easter services?  Expect more of the same.
• I have asked TTG to keep track of the emerging desperation of Pompeo/Bolton in their hostility to Iran.
• French anti-clericalism has been a major theme in their history since the Revolution.  It used to be a feature distinguishing those devoted to Republicanism, but that, thankfully, is gone.  There are not many monarchists in France these days.  The time when the Vendee rebellion of Catholics against the revolutionaries is gone as is the event in which General Thiers broke the back of the Communards by shooting tens of thousand of them in 1871.  A coalition of leftist political parties gained power in France in 1905 and produced a law that confiscated much Church property including Notre Dame and exiled all religious orders (Jesuits, etc) from the country for a time.  Sine that time the country and the government have been relentlessly secular.   Secularism is a feature of the national curriculum in the public schools. Notre Dame is viewed solely as a cultural monument and tourist attraction by the French government.  Should they leave it in ruins?
  
• My genealogist wife tell me that a question regarding citizenship has been historically frequent in US census taking.
• My eldest dog, Lola the Magnificent, A Norwich Terrier bitch, is almost 16  years old.  She went through a bad patch yesterday.  She went comatose for four hours and then suddenly woke up, walked around the TeeVee room and then peed in the middle of a 120 year old Kazak Caucasian Soumak rug.  She is bright eyed and bushy tailed this morning.  She gobbled up her breakfast and went for a stroll around the landscaped back garden in a survey of her domain.   Ah, well, rugs can be cleaned and I like her better than the rug.  She is pretty frisky today.  pl

Comments

[Joe100]

Agree with you on dogs vs. rugs and glad Lola seems quite well today! Something bright within the gloom...

[EEngineer]

Typo:
shouting tens of thousand of them in 1871...

=shooting

[Otto]

is a relentless

yes "in", my take.

[greg d]

About the dog.

Did they test for Marijuana?

I live in Sea and weed being legal this has turned into a problem vets diagnose now and then

[turcopolier]

greg d

Ah, a Democrat.

[turcopolier]

Otto

you left the "italics" turned on. I shut it off.

[blue peacock]

Col. Lang,

Bibi's best bet to solve his intractable Hezbollah problem is when his bitch Trump is in office. Nothing like getting for free the USAF to do the work his IAF can't do. Of course Trump can follow Dubya's footsteps and become the war president. Nothing like a neocon-inspired war to shore his support is what Bolton & Pompeo will advise and Adelson will be crooning too.

How do you think Hezbollah will react when the die is cast and the casus belli is manufactured? Would they preempt and launch all they have knowing they would have to go down when the tens of thousands of sorties of the USAF commence? Syed Nasrallah apparently has warned his commanders to expect an Israeli war this summer.

Would Putin & Xi sit it out & let Hezbollah go down in flames?

[akaPatience]

As someone whose business is commercial real estate albeit on a much smaller scale, and mindful that not all of Trump's wealth is real estate-related, nevertheless it's apparent to me that Trump's net income when filing taxes may be significantly and legitimately lower (due to the shelter that real estate allows) than what he represents his wealth to be when submitting financial statements to lenders. While I agree that Trump's ego may be a factor when it comes to perceptions of his wealth, it also may be that he's smart enough to suspect that his political opponents/MSM would exploit the general public's ignorance about distinctions between tax returns and financial statements, and use those distinctions to create a perception of deceit and corruption.

Anyway, it's obvious his opponents will never stop digging no matter how cooperatively transparent he'd be. Just look at how they're reacting even though he didn't exercise executive privilege in the Mueller investigation.

PS - so glad to read Lola is feeling better. I hope you've seen the comedy, Best In Show in which a Norwich Terrier named Winky triumphs. Bow WOW!!!

[Andrei Martyanov (aka SmoothieX12)]

Rather good and informative thoughts. Truly glad for the dog.

[Serge]

IS released 2 communiqués this morning claiming Sri Lanka,few hours later a video of the 8 attackers giving bayah to Baghdadi. Deadliest attack since declaration of Caliphate in 2014. I really doubted that it was them for the first 2 days, not because of the radio silence which is pretty common for them in the first 24-48 hours, but because of the organized professionally executed nature of the attacks. Reminded me of Paris, the only top down directed ISIS attack outside of their immediate territory to my knowledge. Top down involvement in this one or a local cell with communication/organization links to IS operatives on telegram? Media seems to be focusing on the neat "christchurch revenge" narrative,totally misunderstanding IS ideology, which labeled the victims as citizens of the coalition and Christians at war with IS(non dhimmis) as an excuse for the bloodshed, not a word on Christchurch, which was brought up once in an audio message by their spokesman a week after the attacks in the context of encouraging hijra from the West, not in the context of threatening revenge.

[turcopolier]

BP - If a massive heavy bomber strike is made on Hizbullah it may cripple Hizbullah's ability to lay down a lot of fire in Israel. This Hizbullahis must have figured this out. That creates a hair trigger possibility for a preemptive strike on Israel. This is a very dangerous situation. my crystal ball is cloudy. I have no idea what Putin and Xi might do. "Best in Show" is a great film depicting a wonderful breed.

[The Twisted Genius]

I had an up close encounter with a male mandrill during a "night at the zoo" school trip at the Riverbanks Zoo in Columbia, SC. We were able to tour the animal enclosures after hours. I stood about ten feet from Marcus who was even more impressive than your avatar and muse. I was the only adult male in the group of young women teachers and children so I'm sure I looked like an alpha male showing off his troop. Thank God there were sturdy iron bars between Marcus and myself. I stayed in the background and kept movements to a minimum. I was careful not to stare at him. Marcus sat still and looked at the children and women, but when he looked at me, he raised his eyebrows. That's the beginning of an aggressive expression. I instantly looked away to diffuse the situation.Even though he a captive zoo creature behind bars, Marcus was magnificent. He exuded a confident dominance and was far more awe inspiring than Rousseau's peaceable portrait.

The teacher's explained that the year before there was smug wiseass as a parent chaperone. He thought he was far tougher than Marcus and engaged in a staring contest. The wiseass ended up with a forcefully and accurately hurled handful of warm, fresh mandrill feces in his face. Don't mess with Marcus.

On the Pompeo front, I read an Elijah Magnier tweet about Turkey continuing to import a million barrels of Iranian oil and being willing to soon keep Syria supplied. Nasrallah also gave a speech yesterday basically telling both Pompeo and Netanyahu to pound sand straight up each other's asses. I predict there will be a regional realignment, but not to the liking of Pompeo or Bolton.

[Les Priest]

Col,
RE: Dr Strangelove solution to Hizbullah; I haven’t seen anything to change my mind about what I read on middle east sites last year. Which was that if Israel hits Hizbullah, Syria & the Iraqi Shia militias are in too. Syria has missiles but what might be worse for Israel is a wide front war against experienced infantry. The Israeli AF wouldn’t be able to turn the tide if said infantry has manpads. I don’t have definite information but I’m sure this terrifies the Russians; there’s such a likelihood of this going ‘major-league’.

[eaken]

The Iranians can and are probably trying to hunker down for another 18 months and see what happens in the US presidential campaign. Bibi on the other hand I suspect is not. I think things will be coming to a head here soon and it will be mighty interesting to see what happens when Trump is going to be put in the position of having to get the US militarily involved.

But who knows, maybe the Art of the Deal is to let the Israelis start the war convinced that Trump would never leave them at the altar, only to have him sit back and watch the Israelis run out of ammo.

[Jack]

Yes, indeed. Financial statements and tax returns are for two different audiences. The former for investors and creditors with the goal to maximize, while the latter is for the taxman with the goal to minimize. The US tax code is designed for the super wealthy and large corporations with its complexity and many loop holes. I'm sure Trump was aggressive in his tax strategy just like Bezos. Amazon hasn't paid a dime in taxes throughout its operating history.

Trump hasn't been a commercial real estate developer for sometime. He's a brander who puts his name on a development for a fee. I believe furthering that was his primary motive for running. I don't believe he expected to win.

[Jack]

Sir

I believe you are spot on that Trump is not as wealthy as he would like us to believe. He's created this myth that he parlayed a million dollars from his father to billions. But it seems he actually inherited half billion dollars or more. His sister retired as a judge recently to prevent an ethics inquiry into inheritance tax dodges. His father was a very shrewd and successful real estate developer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/trump-s-sister-retires-negating-judicial-ethics-complaints

He's used his celebrity with great skill to build the Trump brand which he licenses. In any case he's also very skilled in using the media despite their intense opposition to his presidency.

[Fred]

Trump should announce that he is going to have the IRS release the tax returns for the past six years for all living presidents and majority members of the legislative branch of government. Sauce for the goose, served cold.

[Unhinged Citizen]

"Would Putin & Xi sit it out & let Hezbollah go down in flames?"

That is almost certain.

What the Russians have demonstrated is there absolute weakness in the face of US economic dominance and military might.

These Chinese have demonstrated their inability to show any sort of political backbone, but suck in as much world capital as they possibly can in silence.

[Francois]

Dear Colonel,

did you mean the law of 1905 in your comment about secularism in France?

[turcopolier]

Francois - Merci

[turcopolier]

You guys have evidently never seen strategic bombers used as tactical weapons en masse. It is like God plowing the earth.

[Eugene Owens]

I've walked that ground afterwards. Glad I wasn't there when the plowing happened. And weapons are an order of magnitude more deadly and more accurate now.

But no matter IMHO the Air Force won't pull the trigger. And I understood that Pom-Poms $10-million reward was for info on Hezbollah funding. NOT for targeting info on specific positions which StratCom probably already has. Drying up their cash streams is certainly more viable than arclights.

Hope your pup gets better.

[Jackrabbit]

Great story! And well told.

[turcopolier]

EO - I remember one BDA I accompanied in Phuoc Long province. the jungle was ravaged with twenty foot deep loamy craters everywhere and big hard wood trees thrown around like straws. Wild animals wandered in out of the tree line concussed into zombies. Deer wandered up to 1st Cav soldiers like pets. In the space between four craters were six NVA soldiers, all dead from the blast without a mark on them. Yes, it would be much worse now. If you think USAF would refuse such an order under the terrorism AUMF you are just kidding your self.

[Eugene Owens]

Outright refusal? No. But probably a great deal of pushback.

Trump of course can make some changes in leadership and elevate someone picked out by Bibi and by the Mousetashe-of-Idiocy.

But why would he? The current thrust is to defeat Iran and Hez via strangling their finances and NOT through bombing them into the stone age. If that comes, it will be in the future - perhaps if IRGC naval contingents try to shut down Hormuz Straits.