Analysis is not advocacy. The Lebanese should understand that truth.

(This is ONE B-52 plane load)

"Analysis is not advocacy."

How many times have I written that on SST?

Unless you want to live in fantasy you must have the ability to think outside the box created by what you want rather than what is or is likely to be.

The Israelis live in such a box.  In their box the world is filled with gentile monsters who must be dominated and manipulated.  The manipulation part of that illusion is reinforced in their minds by their incredible success in forming public opinion in the US.

The Lebanese live in a different box in which they, in their collective mind's eye, are far more important to the rest of the world than they really are.  A Lebanese I knew well often told other Lebanese that their mistake was in thinking that Bill and Hillary woke up every morning and asked each other " I wonder what is happening in Beirut today?"  The truth is that Lebanon is only important to the Lebanese and that has always been true.  It is particularly true now in the age of neo-neocon domination of US foreign policy.  The cartoon like simplicity with which Bolton, Pompeo and Trump misunderstand realities on the ground in places like Lebanon is striking.

In service to Israeli ambitions for hegemony throughout the ME, these people have no interest whatever in the welfare of the Lebanese.  In particular they are incapable of seeing Hizbullah as anything like an integral part of Lebanese society.  No, they see these Lebanese Shia as nothing more than a threat to Israel.  As I have pointed out, war against Hizbullah is already authorized under American law by their designation as a terrorist group and the AUMF against terrorism.

The Lebanese in Lebanon should understand that US Embassy Beirut has no policy influence in Washington.  None!  The true believer neo-neocons have no interest whatever in the opinions of State Department career bureaucrats who usually do not share their imperialist faith in the global destiny and mission of the US.  Remember that truth when you are tempted to shower praise and attention on the inhabitants of Fort America in east Beirut.  They are in exile among you.

Does any of this mean that I favor the aggressive and disrespectful bullying that emanates from Washington in the era of the neo-neocons?  It does not, but I can recognize reality and this attitude toward Lebanon is real and must be recognized.  The neo-neocons would not shrink from devastating southern Lebanon in order to wreck Hizbullah.  pl 

Comments

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Joe Biden’s in. The 2020 election is underway. Shinzo Abe is visiting Donald Trump to avoid a trade war and, no doubt, to ask to continue the waiver to buy Iranian oil. The NVA resupply continued throughout the bombing campaigns until the US Congress finally gave up on the war. The American occupation of Eastern Syria continues with a small draw down of troops and contractors. Except perhaps for Kosovo no air force bombing campaign has succeeded without troops on the ground. All surviving weapons will be fired at Israel. Iran will support fellow Shiites. If there is significant destruction inside Israel the American Israeli War with Iran is on.

Donald Trump won the last election. He needs to win in 2020. He knows that Larry Johnson said that Britain spied on his campaign. You and Larry Johnson need to tell the President that an Iranian war assures the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, gasoline lines, and the crash of the global economy. Joe Biden will win the election if that happens.

[turcopolier]

ISL You don't understand how difficult and how inhibited by human intertia the process of going to war is. Effective warning as opposed to just warning requires a decisive action in response to just plain warning. You are grasping at straws.

[turcopolier]

Walrus - My contemplation of such a folly is based on the idea that it would be decided on by fools.

[Turcopolier]

V V The fixed defenses and missile emplacements on Hizbullah are hot hundreds of miles of parallel dirt roads in the Laotian jungle. We generally did not use B-52s against that road complex.

[turcopolier]

Keith Harbaugh You must know different Arabs than I do. Arabs will generally bitch a lot but not do much. The Saudis have spent money in Lebanon in the past but that was with the intention of effecting Sunni control over Lebanon. The same thing is true in Syria. Saudi "projects" are always directed at Sunni control.

[Z]

Hypothetically I'm sure they could launch a surprise attack, but the thing is, about 2 million people live in south Lebanon. Is the US going to launch a strategic bombing campaign out of the blue, resulting in 20 to 40k dead civilians? It would seem that for political reasons and not technical ones, that would be impossible. I would imagine the campaign would follow a traditional Israeli attack that is always intended to force a flood of refugees northward. The causus beli for the US would be that Hizbullah had the temerity to hit back, and therefore must be destroyed.

At any rate, my guess is that a media campaign to justify it would have to take place. The political cost to the US for conducting such strategic bombing would be enormous. Even if plenty of media signalling takes place. While Russia wont stop the US bombardment, it will be very hard to say "tsk, tsk" in reaction to anything they do in Ukraine. Or China in Taiwan. Overall, it is such a stupid idea the mind boggles that policy makers actually are planning it. But as the Colonel says, if you are lead by fools, expect folly.
Ziad AKA Lysander

[turcopolier]

Ziad - OK, building tensions, then a provocation followed by at least a claim of Hizbullah attack on northern Israel, then the bombing campaign which drives HB out of southern Lebanon. It seems that you are describing my scenario. A lot of you do not understand how cleverly stupid we have become.

[Turcopolier]

joe100
None of that combined amounted to a real burden on effectiveness of the program.

[jdledell]

When Israel last invaded Lebanon they did NOT have good intelligence on where the rocket launchers were located. Even for those where they thought they knew the location, the missle launchers had been moved. The IAF tried saturation bombing of south lebanon with F-15's and F-16's which cannot deliver quite the load of a B-52 or B-1 or B-2. Hizballah moved north to avoid the bombing and Israel even tried to obliterate the apartment complexes in South Beruit in case Hezballah moved there. All of it was for naught as Hezballah moved around quickly once Israel forces moved into Lebanon and Hezballah anti-tank rockets were deadly against Israeli forces. The IDF finally realized the only way to minimize the Hezballah risk was to occupy southern Lebanon and Israel had no stomach for that kind of protracted military campaign.

The IDF cannot occupy Lebanon, their forces are not contructed that way. It would take U.S. forces on the ground in Lebanon to be effective. I don't think America will long support a campaign in Lebanon with casualties similar to Iraq with roadside bombs and hit and scatter shooting. Like Vietnam, south Lebanon is riddled with underground tunnels used by Hezballah.

[turcopolier]

jdledell

We are not Israel and USAF is not the IAF with its collection of fighter bombers afraid of "golden BBs" from aimed antiaircraft gun fire and MANPADS. It is not possible to conduct "carpet bombing with fighter bombers." The bomb loads are not big enough. This bombing Would take place from altitudes very high above the vertical range of such systems. Syrian S-400 woulh be the only realistic threat.

[turcopolier]

MS

Such talk frightens you? If you don't like the way I run this place, don't come here.

[ISL]

Dear Colonel,

I agree.

In support of your point, despite a number of false reports of full scale nuclear launches in the US and Russian systems, WW3 was not happened (thankfully).

My question is whether the Izzies are likely to believe that inertia would prevent Hizb from launching their assets before the US bombing wave hits. Israel would be at the receiving end (of their decision).

Note, I have trouble seeing Trump / Bolton deciding based on US interests - seems more likely a decision would follow Israeli interests. Are such interests set by Netanyahu and his coalition (whatever it ends up being) or the Israeli military? Occasional news items suggest they do not speak with one voice.

[walrus]

..........And if Hezbollah react decisively to a fake warning, they become hoist with their own petard. It’s difficult to understand how they could receive an accurate and reliable warning other than the destruction of the air defense radar networks and associated missile launchers, but even then?

People might like to reflect on the lead up to Pearl Harbor. It’s all easy with 20/20 hindsight.

[ancientarcher]

My source was Magnier. But why do you think it's propaganda? Do you really expect Nasrallah and the top layer of Hizb to survive a bombing campaign by the USAF?
The Hizb are realists and Nasrallah more than anyone. They know they will have to prepare for that eventuality. No matter what you and I think or are afraid of, Nasrallah will have plans ready for the worst case scenario. You can't expect anything less

[LondonBob]

https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Younger-Republicans-are-less-supportive-of-Israel-poll-finds-587810

Collapse in support for Israel amongst young Republicans and Democrats. The internet can't be uninvented, although censorship efforts will continue.

[Otto]

Ancient, aren't there quite a few of the necessary tools parked in the larger region already, or for that matter in Israel herself?

No doubt it would be interesting how many of those are ready and available in Europe. Turkey? Still there? Jordan? The Arabian Peninsula?

[turcopolier]

IMO a USAF bombing campaign against Hizbullah WOULD NOT be all over Lebanon. It would be limited to a strip across souther Lebanon that contains Hizbullah's major military assets. You can bet that Nasrullah and the leadership ARE NOT in that strip.

[turcopolier]

Once again, Lebanon is of very little importance to the US. The only relevance Lebanon has to the Trump Administration is the presence of Hizbullah on Lebanese soil.

[ancientarcher]

Colonel, there was a training exercise with THAAD in Israel during March this year, the first ever. And a few B-52s were in RAF Fairford for exercise during the same time. Any relevance to what we are discussing?

[jdledell]

Pat - I tried to differentiate between the bombing loads of the IAF and what our strategic bombers can carry. But saturation bombing would neccesarily include all of the lebanese villages that dot Southern Lebanon, in order to clear out Hezballah who are part and parcel of the regular Lebanese society. Would the U.S have the stomach to deal with all the civilian casualties that would result from a huge saturation bombing campaign? Sorry but I do not believe just bombing would decapitate Hezballah. It would take boots on the ground to prevent Hezballah from quickly regenerating most of their capability. If so would this be U.S. troops? I don't think Israel is either capable of such an occupation nor would they be willing participants.

[Fred]

jdledell,

Outside Jared and First in his class and the neocons there is essentially zero support for US ground operations in Lebanon. Unless Trump plans on retiring to a villa in Israel there is no reason to go down this road other than fear of telling off his son-in-law and standing up to a teary eyed Ivanka.

[turcopolier]

I didn't say anythig about US ground operations.

[turcopolier]

jdledell

"would neccesarily include all of the lebanese villages that dot Southern Lebanon," Firstly - I am not and have not advocated a bombing campaign to "break" Hizbullah but I think you are quite wrong in the statement you made above. Hizbullah does not intend to fight from civilian occupied villages. Not does it keep its missile stocks very far n the rear of its fighting positions. It cannot because the farther back you place your launch points the shorter the ranges you can reach in Israel. What we are talking about is a fairly narrow band of land.

[turcopolier]

No.

[Fred]

I know, I was responding to the jdledell' s comments.