Analysis is not advocacy. The Lebanese should understand that truth.

(This is ONE B-52 plane load)

"Analysis is not advocacy."

How many times have I written that on SST?

Unless you want to live in fantasy you must have the ability to think outside the box created by what you want rather than what is or is likely to be.

The Israelis live in such a box.  In their box the world is filled with gentile monsters who must be dominated and manipulated.  The manipulation part of that illusion is reinforced in their minds by their incredible success in forming public opinion in the US.

The Lebanese live in a different box in which they, in their collective mind's eye, are far more important to the rest of the world than they really are.  A Lebanese I knew well often told other Lebanese that their mistake was in thinking that Bill and Hillary woke up every morning and asked each other " I wonder what is happening in Beirut today?"  The truth is that Lebanon is only important to the Lebanese and that has always been true.  It is particularly true now in the age of neo-neocon domination of US foreign policy.  The cartoon like simplicity with which Bolton, Pompeo and Trump misunderstand realities on the ground in places like Lebanon is striking.

In service to Israeli ambitions for hegemony throughout the ME, these people have no interest whatever in the welfare of the Lebanese.  In particular they are incapable of seeing Hizbullah as anything like an integral part of Lebanese society.  No, they see these Lebanese Shia as nothing more than a threat to Israel.  As I have pointed out, war against Hizbullah is already authorized under American law by their designation as a terrorist group and the AUMF against terrorism.

The Lebanese in Lebanon should understand that US Embassy Beirut has no policy influence in Washington.  None!  The true believer neo-neocons have no interest whatever in the opinions of State Department career bureaucrats who usually do not share their imperialist faith in the global destiny and mission of the US.  Remember that truth when you are tempted to shower praise and attention on the inhabitants of Fort America in east Beirut.  They are in exile among you.

Does any of this mean that I favor the aggressive and disrespectful bullying that emanates from Washington in the era of the neo-neocons?  It does not, but I can recognize reality and this attitude toward Lebanon is real and must be recognized.  The neo-neocons would not shrink from devastating southern Lebanon in order to wreck Hizbullah.  pl 

Comments

[Anonymous]

What did you think of the movie Beirut?

I thought it was strange that the Lebanese had an outrage party about the movie before even seeing it. (Because it was filmed in Morocco and didn't use Lebanese actors.) Fine to critique inaccuracies, but before even seeing it?

And for what it's worth, it's how I remember it from the early 80s. At least the stereotype of it during that time.

[Anonymous]

Do you really need the Buffs? Can't you hit most important areas in Southern Lebanon with naval gunfire?

(Not that I want to do this shit all over again. Don't we ever learn?)

[BraveNewWorld]

A fly in this ointment is the fact that while the US has more hardware that it can possibly use, a lot of it is in pretty bad shape especially the air assets that have been going full out for decades. The long haul guys you listed above are probably in pretty good shape. But F-35 is unusable, F-22 would only be used for escort duty F-15,16,18 all have fairly low availability rates as far as I know. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the NATO crowd to pitch in this time.

Spares also seem to be a problem across pretty well the entire US military. Sure there is enough assets to destroy Lebanon but then what? With the Administration drooling for war with China, that is going to be hard to pull off if every thing is sitting in the repair depot. The Pentagons dream of a $200B budget increase this year is pure fantasy with the Democrats back in the House.

[BraveNewWorld]

Stop me if I am wrong but doesn't Syria only have S-300 which is much more limited in hight and range? Also the impression I get is they are just there for show and Russia would never allow them to fire them in anger.