Sic Semper Tyrannis

Sealed vs. Sealed: The U.S. Supreme Court might hear a secret case about a grand jury subpoena

By Robert Willmann

A sealed and secret court case about a grand jury subpoena made its way from the federal district court (trial court) to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.  Now the supreme court has opened its door slightly and, after receiving some papers, has whispered back that it is thinking about whether it will hear the case.  The current deadline for a response is Monday at High Noon on New Year's Eve.  However, one was filed by the government (possibly through the "special counsel" Robert Mueller group) on Friday, 28 December--

https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/18a669.html

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/sealed_gj_case_sup_court_docket.pdf

This case started out anonymously in a federal district court in Washington D.C.  At some point, when it was at the court of appeals, a reporter or staffer for the Politico website was in the appellate court clerk's office when a lawyer came in, and was overheard asking for a copy of the special counsel's latest sealed filing.  When approached by the Politico person, the lawyer refused to give his name or identify his client [1].  This started an ongoing rumor that a closed court proceeding was going on that might have to do with the Robert Mueller investigation about the Russian government and the Trump presidential campaign. 

When the matter was appealed to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, that court clerk's docket sheet was public, although it consisted mostly of the word "sealed".  Backtracking from it to the district clerk's file, the trial court's docket sheet itself was secret, containing only the case number, the name "Sealed vs. Sealed", and a statement that the case is not available to the public.  But a few clues appeared in the court of appeals docket sheet, giving us a case number in the district court (1:18-gj-00041-BAH), the judge presiding over the case there (Beryl A. Howell), the fact that it involves a grand jury matter (the 'gj' in the case number), and the day the proceeding began in the trial court (16 August 2018) [2]. --

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/sealed_gj_case_appeals_ct_docket_sheet.pdf

The appeal to the D.C. Circuit began and was officially filed on 10 October 2018.  As the docket sheet shows, written arguments (briefs) were filed by both sides.  Oral argument to the court was set for 14 December 2018, and reporters actually started to do their job, staking out the courthouse that day.  But the fifth floor of the building was cleared out, and the lawyers involved sneaked in and out of the courthouse for the hearing without being detected [3].

"Whither the Kurds?" Dorsey

"Kurdish hopes are often vested in predictions articulated by former CIA and National Security Agency director Michael Hayden that “Iraq no longer exists, Syria no longer exists”[v][5] as well as the disintegration of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia in the wake of the demise of communist rule. That remains a possibility but more realistic is the fact, at least in the immediate future, the Syrian and Iraqi states as they existed in the past are more likely to change rather than dissolve. The lesson of the 2017 Iraqi Kurdish referendum and the fact that the Iraqi state has already demonstrated resilience in surviving and its Syrian counterpart may well do so too, means that Kurds will have to strive for some autonomous accommodation within a federal structure."  Dorsey

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Dorsey's main points are that the Kurds of Iraq and Syria have been taught valuable even if painful lessons:

1.  The United States has been and remains committed to the existence of the post World War One geographical constructs that are the Iraqi and Syrian states.  In the heady atmosphere that accompanied the "Arab Spring," revolts which were largely supported by the Obama Administration, and the decades long flirtation of the US Borg (foreign policy establishment) with the Kurds, the Kurdish people conceived the idea after 9/11 that the US would support them in resistance to non-Kurdish governments in Iraq and Syria even unto support for Kurdish independence and full Kurdish control of petroleum resources in their parts of these countries. 

2.  They have been shown to be wrong in that hope.  The devotion and reverence of the US Borg for the supposed sanctity of international borders and the existence of what is conceived by the Borg to be to an international order in which those borders cannot ever be changed has proven to be much stronger than any other factors including the lure of concessionary contracts in oil and gas from new Kurdish states.

3.  The United States is not a reliable ally in any cause not generally thought to be a struggle against a possibly fatal threat to the US as a country.  The citizenry of the US simply have no interest in less than total wars waged against what is conceived of as great evil.  The Borg understands this disinterest by the public in what the Borg thinks of as a desirable set of tools in the "game of nations." Because of that phenomenon great efforts have been made in IO to sell the Borg Wars as existential for the US.  The American people now see through that deception and Trump has acted on this conviction that he shares with the people.  In that context betrayal of the Kurds has become a necessary evil.

4.  Neither the Kurds not any other hapless minority people will ever have the grip on the collective imagination of the American People and the Congress that Israel has.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/whither-the-kurds/

Trump Fought For His Withdrawal For a Year by Willy B

Gareth Porter, in an article published in the American Conservative, definitively shows that Trump's Dec. 19 announcement of the US withdrawal from Syria was, in fact, the end of a fight of at least a year, between Trump on the one side and his national security team, lead by Mattis and Dunford on the other. Published accounts of the policy process over the past year "show that senior national security officials and self-interested institutions have been playing a complicated political game for months aimed at keeping Trump from wavering on our indefinite presence on the ground in Syria," Porter writes. "The entire episode thus represents a new variant of a familiar pattern dating back to Vietnam in which national security advisors put pressure on reluctant presidents to go along with existing or proposed military deployments in a war zone. The difference here is that Trump, by publicly choosing a different policy, has blown up their transparent schemes and offered the country a new course, one that does not involve a permanent war state."

Porter cites an April 2018 Associated Press account of an NSC meeting at which Trump's impatience with his national security team boiled over. At that meeting, Trump ordered them unequivocally to accept a fundamentally different Syria deployment policy. Instead, they framed the options as a binary choice—either an immediate pullout or an indefinite presence in order to ensure the complete and permanent defeat of Islamic State. Mattis and Dunford, Porter continues, were consciously exploiting Trump's own defensiveness about a timeline–he had attacked Obama during the 2016 campaign for imposing a timeline in Afghanistan–"to press ahead with their own strategy unless and until Trump publicly called them on it."

"The Syria withdrawal affair is a dramatic illustration of the fundamental quandary of the Trump presidency in regard to ending the state of permanent war that previous administrations created. Although a solid majority of Americans want to rein in U.S. military deployments in the Middle East and Africa, Trump's national security team is committed to doing the opposite," Porter concludes. "Trump is now well aware that it is virtually impossible to carry out the foreign policy that he wants without advisors who are committed to the same objective. That means that he must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture. If he can fill key positions with truly dissident figures, the last two years of this term in office could decisively clip the wings of the bureaucrats and generals who have created the permanent war state we find ourselves in today."

Trump has called the bluff of the permanent warfare crowd and now has his decision, but the possibility of sabotage by that crowd's assets inside the Pentagon cannot yet be discounted. This is indicated by an exclusive Reuters report claiming that planners at the Pentagon are proposing that the YPG be allowed to keep the heavy weapons that the US has supplied it with, though Reuters' sources stress that the planning is still at an early stage and nothing's been decided yet. And yet, there must be a reason why this is being reported now. It obviously would throw a monkey wrench in the arrangements that Trump is trying to make with Erdogan to keep eastern Syria stable in the wake of the US withdrawal. It would also represent a back down from US promises made earlier to the Turks to retrieve the weapons and Erdogan would throw a fit. Certainly, the idea that the U.S. military can retrieve all of the weapons that it handed over is a dubious one, at best,  and there are legitimate questions about whether or not Turkish troops could really operate in the Middle Euphrates valley near the Iraqi border, hundreds of kilometers from the Turkish border.

But the key to the proposal is this: The recommendation "is a rejection of Trump's policy to withdraw from Syria," a person familiar with the discussions told Reuters. So, really, it is an attempt at sabotage.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-scores-breaks-generals-50-year-war-record-syria-mattis-dunford/

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-u-commanders-recommend-letting-kurdish-fighters-syria-233235271.html 

 

HARPER: MORE BAD NEWS FOR THE NEOCONS FROM TRUMP

President Trump's decision to withdraw the 2,200 US Special Forces from Syria and to bring 7,000 American troops home from Afghanistan is more bad news for the neocons.  It raises questions about how long John Bolton is going to survive as National Security Advisor.  

Recall that six months ago, Trump announced he wanted to withdraw US troops from Syria, now that ISIS has been largely defeated.  In fact, jihadist forces are largely encircled in Idlib Province by combined R+6 forces, with the choice to surrender or die.  At that time, the JCS, Mattis, Bolton all argued that the US should stay.  They couldn't give a good reason--other than that the US presence brought some stability and protected the Kurds.  In the absence of a clear US strategy towards the region, Trump agreed to hold off.

Six months passed and Trump, being Trump, decided he had enough and announced the withdrawal.  He spoke by phone with Erdogan, and extracted a promise that the Turks would finish off ISIS.  Erdogan was taken aback by the call and is not certain whether he is being set up by Trump.  Erdogan, of course, wants to deploy the Turkish Army against the YPG Kurdish forces east of the Euphrates River.  He may very well do that, once the US forces pull out.

Neocons are very unhappy with Trump.  Bolton had publicly demanded that US forces remain in Syria until all the Iranians withdraw.  Not gonna happen.  

JCS will devise contingency plans for maintaining some operational presence in Syrian conflict, via bases in Iraq and Jordan--if they can get the OK from those host governments.

Trump is mindful that he promised in 2016 to end the US permanent wars.  He is now delivering partially on that pledge.  It is part of his reelection plan but it is also a reflection of his own beliefs.  Remember his recent tweet that the $717 billion defense budget is "obscene."

Neocons built their power on the widespread false belief that the United States was the sole superpower, using American military force to maintain order.  It was part of the post-9/11 Global War on Terror, which drove US foreign and national security policy for nearly two decades.  

Trump appears to be turning the page on that bad chapter in American history.  Hopefully, some smart people will help orchestrate the transition in a way that increases, rather than decreases stability in the Middle East and Central Asia.

 

Hold your breath. - The SAA is invited into Manbij by the SDF

(SAA's logo)

"On December 28, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) released an official statement inviting the Damascus government to assert control of the areas, from which YPG units had allegedly withdrawn, in particular Manbij. The YPG added that the decision is caused by the Turkish threat and that the group will concentrate its efforts on combating ISIS.

Syrian troops reportedly started entering the town of Manbij in the morning of the same day.

Meanwhile, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) have continued concentrating troops and military equipment near the Syrian border. According to fresh reports, the TAF has deployed at least 10 M60T battle tanks and several armored vehicles in the province of Kilis."  SF

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Hallelujah!  Or more properly al-hamdulillah! (praise be to God), people who wish Syria well have prayed for a re-integration of the SDF and the territory it has controlled into Syria proper under Syrian government control.  Now this has begun in earnest thanks to the Turkish menace and the decision of Trump to withdraw all but a few GB liaison soldiers from the territory of Syria.  The SDF cleverly writes that it will continue to fight but concentrating on remaining IS forces as in the Hajin pocket in the SE where the US will continue to support them with fire from across the border with Iraq as well as supply.

So far the press has not chosen to note a steady flow of refugees returning to Syria from Lebanon and Jordan.  pl

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-dec-28-2018-ypg-invites-syrian-army-to-manbij/

The Nuclear Option should be used in the Lame Duck

"The nuclear option is a parliamentary procedure that allows the United States Senate to override a rule – specifically the 60-vote rule to close debate – by a simple majority of 51 votes, rather than the two-thirds supermajority normally required to amend the rules. The option is invoked when the majority leader raises a point of order that only a simple majority is needed to close debate on certain matters. The presiding officer denies the point of order based on Senate rules, but the ruling of the chair is then appealed and overturned by majority vote, establishing new precedent.

This procedure effectively allows the Senate to decide any issue by simple majority vote, regardless of existing procedural rules such as Rule XXII which requires the consent of 60 senators (out of 100) to end a filibuster for legislation, and 67 for amending a Senate rule. The term "nuclear option" is an analogy to nuclear weapons being the most extreme option in warfare."  wiki

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"The "nuclear option" is invoked when a simple majority of the Senate overrides the normal consequences of the rules above. Following a failed cloture vote, the majority leader raises a point of order that Rule XXII should be interpreted – or disregarded on constitutional grounds – to require only a simple majority to invoke cloture on a certain type of business, such as nominations. The presiding officer, relying on the advice of the Senate Parliamentarian, then denies the point of order based upon rules and precedent. But the ruling of the chair is then appealed, and is overturned by simple majority vote"  wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_option

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The rule requiring 2/3 of the Senate voting in the affirmative  for closure of debate (cloture) on legislation is not part of the Constitution.  It is simply an internally decided rule of the Senate.  The rule has been different in the past and can be changed whenever the Senate votes to do so.

The Republican Party holds control of both houses of Congress until the end of 2018.  In the new Congress the Democrats will control the House of Representatives and the GOP will control the Senate with a majority of 53.

It is clear to me that the Democratic House will not cooperate with President Trump's legislative agenda on anything except possibly infrastructure improvements (roads, bridges, etc.).

Legislation, unlike presidential appointments to the courts, ambassadorships, etc., requires the action of both houses.  That being the case it is to be expected that no further legislation regarding Trumps MAGA agenda will be passed in the final two years of Trump's first term.

Therefore I see no reason why Senator McConnell should not attempt to change the 2/3 Cloture Rule so that there is a chance to pass the Second Phase Tax bill and the Border Security funding bill in the Lame Duck.  To change the rule would require a simple majority in the Senate.  The GOP has 51 seats in the Senate.  There are several "shaky" Republican senators who may not be reliable in such an attempt.  Senator Flake of Arizona has shown himself to no longer be under Republican caucus control and would likely vote against a rule change.  I think he is probably going to re-enter politics as a Democrat after he leaves the Senate in January. 

Without Flake it would be difficult but not impossible to get a 50-50 split on a vote to change the rule.  In that case Vice President Pence could break the tie as presiding officer of the Senate.

I think this is worth a try.

The argument that the Democrats would use this new rule when they eventually regain control of the Senate is laughable.  The Republican principle here should be "lets do it to them before they do it to us."  pl

Two new US bases in western Iraq.

"The U.S. military has established two new bases along the Iraqi-Syrian border, the Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency reported on Tuesday.

Citing an Iraqi official, the Anadolu Agency said the U.S. military established the two bases in the western countryside of the Al-Anbar.

“The U.S. Army has established two new military facilities in uninhabited parts of the province,” Farhan al-Duleimi, a member of Anbar’s provisional council, told Anadolu Agency.

The first base, he said, had been set up in the northern Rumana subdistrict (in Anbar’s Al-Qaim district) near the Syrian border, roughly 360 kilometers west of provincial capital Ramadi.

The second base, he added, had been set up east of the city of Al-Rutbah, roughly 310 kilometers west of Ramadi and less than 100 kilometers from the Syrian border.

According to al-Duleimi, the twin bases are intended to help Iraqi forces “secure the country’s borders and prevent infiltrations by the Daesh terrorist group.”

“Scores of U.S. soldiers are currently stationed at the two bases, along with drones and other equipment,” al-Duleimi said without elaborating."

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-builds-two-military-bases-along-syrian-border-map/

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The generals' club is probably at work in this, seeking to limit the effect of Trump's order for US forces to withdraw from Syria.

The one in roumana sub-district  is the location from which US Army 155mm artillery is firing in support of continuing  SDF attacks against the hajin pocket in the SE corner of Syria.  There will be US Army GBs with the SDF adjusting these fires.  IMO those GBs will be left in Syria to do what only they do best, keep the locals in the fight.  This base will be useful as a forward staging point for any raids that SOF forces might want to make into Syria (kill Baghdadi, etc.)

The other base is at rutbah and is positioned astride the highway from al-tanf in Syria.  In this position it will continue to obstruct the Damascus-Baghdad-Iran main ground route. 

These two facilities will surely be supported and supplied from the al-asad air bast which Trump visited.  pl

"Russia allegedly warns Turkey to stay out of Syria"

"The Russian Federation has allegedly warned Turkey to stay out of Syria and to let the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad retake the entire country.

According to a report from the Associated Press, the Russian Federation warned Turkey against capturing the territories that were under the control of the U.S.-backed forces in northern Syria.

Despite these claims by the AP, the Russian Federation has yet to issue any statement warning Turkey against launching their offensive against the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG).

Instead, the Russian Foreign Ministry has reiterated that they are working closely with Turkey in Syria, adding that all activities are discussed prior to being conducted."  AP and MN

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-allegedly-warns-turkey-to-stay-out-of-syria-let-assad-take-back-country/

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If this is true it is a major development that will serve to constrain Turkish ambitions from Manbij to the east all the way to the Iraqi border.  The Russian Foreign Ministry is understandably silent about such a statement to the Turks preferring to discuss such matters in private so as to not humiliate the other side in such a way as preclude agreement.  pl

How clever!

"The Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out its recent airstrikes in Syria when two civilians planes were landing in Beirut and Damascus, putting passengers at risk, Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense (MoD) of Russia told reporters on December 26.

“Provocative acts by the Israeli Air Force endangered two passenger jets when six of their F-16s carried out airstrikes on Syria from Lebanese airspace,” RT quoted the spokesman as saying.

According to Konashenkov, the Syrian Arab Air Defense Forces (SyAADF) delayed the deployment of surface-to-air missiles and electronic jamming “to prevent a tragedy.” Meanwhile, the Damascus air traffic control diverted one of the passenger jets to a reserve airport in Khmeimim in southern Lattakia.

Konashenkov said that 6 Israeli F-16 warplanes used 16 US-made GPS-guided GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDBs) in the attack, which occurred at the late hours of December 25. Only 2 SDBs managed to hit their targets, while the rest were intercepted by the SyAADF.

Israeli media claimed that Israeli warplanes struck a shipment of Iranian-made Fajir-5 rockets, which was on its way to Hezbollah. However, the Ministry of Defense of Syria said that the “aggression” targeted an ammo depot of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) injuring three service members.

Last September, a Russian Il-20 plane was downed by Syrian air defense fire when Israeli warplanes used it as a cover to strike targets on the Syrian coast. The recent airstrikes show that Israel is now using the same tactic with civilian planes, which endangers the flights not only over Syria, but also over Lebanon and Jordan."  SF

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I would not recommend flying into Beirut or Damascus on civil airlines. What the Israelis did here is carry out strikes in Syria using scheduled airline departures and arrivals as cover believing correctly that the SAA would not engage fearing to shoot down an airliner.  pl

https://southfront.org/russian-mod-israeli-air-force-used-landing-of-two-civilian-planes-as-cover-for-airstrikes/

 

Open Thread 26 December 2018

pl

Unwarranted Hysteria Over Syria and Afghanistan by Publius Tacitus

Count me, along with Colonel Lang, as a  strong supporter of Trump's decision to pull U.S. troops from Syria and to start a drawdown in Afghanistan.

Ignore for a moment the fact that we never should have been in Syria in the first place. We went there, not to defeat ISIS, but to destroy the regime of Bashar Al Assad.

We essentially launched an unprovoked invasion of Syria while Barack Obama was President. Our troops on the ground in Syria remain there  in violation of international law. We do not even have a sound Authorization for Use of Military Force aka AUMF. We are still using the justification for going after Bin Laden as the green light for trying to destroy Assad. There is no legal justification for this but, as Colonel Lang frequently reminds me, this ain't about Hoyle.

The hysterical reaction to Trump's decision clearly ignores the fact we  have a very small footprint in Syrian--we’re only talking about a little more than 2000 Special Ops and Special Forces personnel. We have not deployed conventional forces as we did in Iraq in 2004 when more than 6000 Marines stormed Fallujah.

The SpecOps units that have been in Syria are not going into towns controlled by ISIS and slugging it out. They do not have that capability. They are doing some training, advising assistance, and intel collection. Our main killing force are drones.

The shape of things to come - TTG

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (7:45 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army’s elite Tiger Forces wing has been ordered to redeploy to eastern Syria this week after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his troop withdrawal from the country. According to a government source, the Tiger Forces were given orders to deploy to the eastern countryside of the Deir Ezzor province after spending several months at the Abu Dhuhour Airport front in southeastern Idlib."

"The Tiger Forces’ mission in eastern Syria is still unknown; however, they could be deploying to this front in order to prevent a Turkish military expansion. With Turkey’s announcement of a new military operation east of the Euphrates, the Syrian government and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have entered talks to deal with the threat of this invasion." 

(in an update published shortly after this)

“According to a military source in Damascus, the reason for the redeployment is due to the growing Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh) that is posed by the upcoming Turkish Army offensive east of the Euphrates. The source said that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who are fighting ISIS right now, will be forced to redeploy much of their troops to northern Syria as they attempt to deal with the looming Turkish Army threat. The Tiger Forces are expected to clear a small Islamic State pocket that has remained near the border-city of Albukamal.” (Al Masdar News)

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All those who are wailing about how the US withdrawal will allow IS to run rampant can now rest easy. The Tiger Force will finish the job. Once the Tiger Force finishes off the jihadis between Dier Ezzor and Albukamal, I imagine they will drive north to Raqqa. They will probably take control of those 3,000 plus jihadi prisoners held by the YPG/SDF along the way. I doubt the SDF or Coalition will contest the Tiger Force’s crossing of the Euphrates or their advance to Raqqa. 

In another development Erdogan announced he will hold off on his planned invasion of Rojava and beyond. I’m sure he was giddy about the dream of advancing all the way to Albukamal, but he seems to have suffered an attack of prudence... or maybe he was visited by the ghost of Issam Zahreddine telling tales of his brother Suheil al Hassan.

The SF teams should stay in place and assist in the linkup of YPG/SDF forces with the advancing Tiger Forces. I’d give my left nut to be on the ground when that happens.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-elite-division-heads-to-east-syria-after-trumps-withdrawal-announcement/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/update-tiger-forces-to-begin-offensive-against-isis-in-east-deir-ezzor/

I suggest Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard for SECDEF

" ... born April 12, 1981) is an American politician of the Democratic Party serving as the U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district since 2013. She was also a Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee until February 28, 2016, when she resigned to endorse Senator Bernie Sanders for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Elected in 2012, she is the first Samoan American member and the first Hindu member of the United States Congress.

Gabbard served in a field medical unit of the Hawaii Army National Guard in a combat zone in Iraq from 2004 to 2005 and was later deployed to Kuwait. She previously served in the Hawaii House of Representatives from 2002 to 2004. When she was elected to the Hawaii House of Representatives at age 21, Gabbard was the youngest woman to be elected to a U.S. state legislature."  wiki

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Major Gabbard, ARNG served in Iraq, is a woman, a Democrat,  a person of color, a non-interventionist, a Hindu and a Pacific Islander of Samoan descent.  What could be better?

If that thought fails I suggest Senators Rand Paul and Mike Lee as back-ups.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsi_Gabbard

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20 DECEMBER 2018 (by Patrick Armstrong)

SYRIA. The US is leaving. Here's Trump (his saying ISIS is defeated is flim flam; he would remember the saying about Vietnam: "declare victory and leave"). Lots of speculation why and what: here's the best I've seen so far. Everyone who hates Trump hates it: I look forward to pink pussy hat protesters. Will we have a sudden "Assad gases children" false flag? Will the borg just disobey him? Wait and see. But this is one of the reasons people voted for him: these wars do not "make America great".

PUTIN PRESSER. Quick summary. I'll cover it next Sitrep if I think he's said anything new.

TODAY'S AMUSEMENT. "US Coast Guard Turns Down Arctic Exercise Because 40-year-old Icebreaker Might Break Down And Would Require Russian Help". "The country that doesn't make anything" has the two most powerful icebreakers in existence. You can cruise on one of them.

SOLZHENITSYN. Putin attended the unveiling of a statue on the centenary of his birth and met with his widow in the Kremlin. I repeat, for those who think Putin worships Stalin or something, that excerpts from the Gulag Archipelago are required reading in Russian schools. (The NYT has a poor memory.)

STUNT OR REMINDER? Two White Swans visited Venezuela. Prompting this nugget from the stupidity mine: "The Russian and Venezuelan people should see this for what it is: two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer.”

GUNS. SIPRI reports that Russia is the second biggest arms exporter in 2017 (USA first at five times as much). Of course, apart from other things, Syria has proved to be a great showcase and test bed.

SANCTIONS. The US Treasury has announced that it has dropped its sanctions against RusAl (the second largest aluminum company) but will keep them against its – what now? former owner? absentee owner? Meanwhile more sanctions against some other Russian entities for some imagined involvement in some imagined crime.

WESTERN VALUES™. Months of solitary confinement, threats and emptied wallet and Maria Butina takes a plea deal. As Beria is said to have said "give me the man and I will give you the crime".

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Murdered by Kremlin!!!! Oops, natural causes. Reminiscent of the death of Badri Patarkatsishvili in 2008: another enemy of Putin dies; oops, Saakashvili’s enemy. (Meanwhile, in Georgia, a recording has appeared of Saakashvili ordering his death).

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. There's a plan to strengthen the Euro's international role. Merkel criticised Trump for "populism" and similar doubleplusungood things. The EU foreign policy chief says shortcomings of the IMF Treaty are no reason to scrap it. But, obediently the European Parliament praises Ukraine, condemns Russia and calls for stopping Nord Stream. (Germany will ignore the last). And it extended sanctions on Russia because of "zero progress in implementation of Minsk agreements". Moscow has no obligations under the agreement but that fact has never stopped them before. So baby steps away from Daddy, big steps back.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Some developments. The reporter who first spread the Dossier story now doubts it. Google CEA says "Russians" spent less than $5000. Nate Silver doubts there was much effect. The so called influence campaign was really a click-bait scheme to sucker advertisers. But it rolls on. For your amusement, a mash-up of how Trump is finished!!!!

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. MoA lists all the things Putin has "weaponised". But don't dare laugh: the BBC solemnly informs us he's weaponised humour. A US comic book has him as villain and a super hero whose sister was gassed "by Assad, the Russians' puppet". London Times: "Russian accounts fuel French outrage online". Paris is investigating. And why not blame Russia? Everybody in the EU is as happy as happy can be, only the malign efforts of wicked Moscow could make them think they weren't. McCarthyism wasn't as crackbrained as this.

POLAND. The LNG deal is signed. 20 years FOB at Texas. This can't be cheaper than Russian gas.

UKRAINE. "Israel's ambassador to Kiev 'shocked' after seeing that a region in Ukraine honors Nazi collaborator Bandera". He just noticed? Not just a region. A parliamentarian says the EU cheated them. It is not inconceivable that the election, if Poroshenko can't finagle his way out of it, may bring some change. The new president can blame the old and it will be a re-arrangement of the deckchairs and who knows what will happen in such an unhappy and unstable country? If Poroshenko orders an attack the certain defeat will stir more up. But change is more likely worse than better.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

A neo-Ottoman "good deal"

"Turkey has proposed the United States to study Russian-made S-400 missile defense system when Ankara will get them from Moscow, Bloomberg claimed citing anonymous sources.

According to Bloomberg’s claims, by this, Turkey was seeking to settle the S-400 deal issue with the US. However, the media outlet provided no evidence to confirm the claims. Most likely this report is another attempt to media organizations affiliated with the US establishment to undermine the Russian-Turkish deal.

Furthermore, the report came amid a decision by the US State Department to allow a possible sale of Patriot missile defense systems to Ankara."  SF and Bloomberg

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I lived in Turkey at Izmir for several years a long time ago and have repeatedly returned to visit friends and to watch the country grow in wealth and sophistication  I have traveled the whole country.  I like Turkey; the people, the cuisine, the art, the whole package but it must be said that the neo-Ottoman, Erdogan side of Turkey's nature is not to be trusted.  As I have written before the dream of those Turks is a restoration of the ecumenical multi-national state that was the Ottoman Empire

All of Syria and Iraq were Ottoman territory before WW1 and had been that for several hundred years.  The very concept of Arab nationality developed in the 19th Century among Ottomans educated in Beirut and Istanbul in missionary run institutions like Robert College and the American College of Beirut.  Before that experience fermented into nationalism the seeds were planted in places like that which were in fact distributed all across the Islamic World.  Ottoman government was everywhere present in the Arab World proper but not in regions like Iran and what is now the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.  That part of the Arabian Peninsula was then closely observed by the Government of India  and more or less controlled through subventions to local rulers.

In pursuit of their irredentist dream the present government of Turkey believe that any combination of deception, skullduggery and sheer armed force is justified.  The reported offer of Turkey to allow the US to inspect and analyze the S-400 Russian SAM system in return for completion of sales of US Patriot SAMs and F-35 fighters is not at all outside the "frame" for governmental actions in the Middle East. 

It should be expected that if the US accepts such an offer, the same offer will be made to Russia concerning US made equipment.  pl

https://southfront.org/bloomberg-turkey-proposed-u-s-to-study-russian-made-s-400-systems/

The White House announces some sort of U.S. troop withdrawal from Syria

By Robert Willmann

This morning, the White House announced some type of withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria.  What actually will happen remains to be seen--

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1075425481032376320

Statement from @PressSec: “Five years ago, ISIS was a very powerful and dangerous force in the Middle East, and now the United States has defeated the territorial caliphate. . .”

“These victories over ISIS in Syria do not signal the end of the Global Coalition or its campaign. We have started returning United States troops home as we transition to the next phase of this campaign. . .”

“The United States and our allies stand ready to re-engage at all levels to defend American interests whenever necessary, and we will continue to work together to deny radical Islamist terrorists territory, funding, support, and any means of infiltrating our borders.”

 

USSPACECOM and the circle of life - TTG

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

SUBJECT: Establishment of United States Space Command as a Unified Combatant Command

Pursuant to my authority as the Commander in Chief and under section 161 of title 10, United States Code, and in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I direct the establishment, consistent with United States law, of United States Space Command as a functional Unified Combatant Command.  I also direct the Secretary of Defense to recommend officers for my nomination and Senate confirmation as Commander and Deputy Commander of the new United States Space Command.

I assign to United States Space Command:  (1) all the general responsibilities of a Unified Combatant Command; (2) the space‑related responsibilities previously assigned to the Commander, United States Strategic Command; and (3) the responsibilities of Joint Force Provider and Joint Force Trainer for Space Operations Forces.  The comprehensive list of authorities and responsibilities for United States Space Command will be included in the next update to the Unified Command Plan.

Consistent with section 161(b)(2) of title 10, United States Code, and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, you are directed to notify the Congress on my behalf.

You are authorized and directed to publish this memorandum in the Federal Register.

DONALD J. TRUMP

************************************

USSPACECOM existed as a unified combatant command from 1985 to 2002 headquartered at Peterson AFB along with NORAD. NORAD and the Cheyenne Mountain Site were part of USSPACECOM at the time. VP Pence announced the new headquarters will be at the Kennedy Space Center. That will make Florida home to four unified combatant commands. There will be Congressional turf battles over that decision.

My experience with the old USSPACECOM started when they picked up the DOD’s computer network defense (CND) mission. I was recognized as knowing something about computers and, along with the Defense HUMINT Service Y2K preparations, was given the CND portfolio. I made one trip out to Peterson AFB. The area is beautiful. I made it to the top of Pikes Peak in a pigged out rental car that had no business being up there. General Ralph Eberhart was CINCUSSPACECOM at the time. He was a hoot.  He made it clear that he knew precious little about CND, but pledged his and his command’s full support for the mission and the Joint Task Force - Computer Network Defense (JTF-CND), the unit charged with carrying out that mission. My time supporting  USSPACECOM and JTF-CND was exciting, challenging and fruitful. But that’s another story.

I applaud Trump’s decision to reestablish USSPACECOM. The stated mission is pure and simple and without the distractions of CND and other ancillary missions. I also applaud its basing in the Kennedy Space Center/Patrick AFB area. It will be a constant reminder of the command’s singular mission. As with the old command, the Air Force Space Command will be the foundation upon which the new command will be built. I’m sure its headquarters will move to Patrick AFB where the 45th Space Wing is already located. Other elements of USSPACECOM will remain based throughout the country. 

An article in “Politico” says Trump is taking this step because Congress is fiercely skeptical of the idea of establishing a Space Force as a separate service. I agree that Space Force is a premature idea. However, the immediate reestablishment of USSPACECOM is a necessary move. Good on ya, Mr. President, for making it so.

TTG

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/18/white-house-establishes-us-space-command-1038139

The Trump Coup Is a Threat to Our Republic by Larry Johnson

On the threshhold of the second anniversary of Donald Trump’s inauguration, the details of the coup to force him from the Presidency are emerging and should alarm all Americans regardless of political party affiliation. Although many facts remain to be discovered, what has emerged paints a shocking picture of criminal activity by FBI and CIA officials. That explains in part why both agencies are going to great lengths to hide documents that provide indisputable proof of their malfeasance.

When American law enforcement and officials, who carry Top Secret clearances and authority to collect intelligence or pursue a criminal investigation, decide to employ lies and intimidation to silence those who worked for Donald Trump’s Presidency, our Republic is endangered.

My interest is not in protecting or defending Donald Trump. I am talking about defending the rule of law and ensuring that the Constitutional limitations on the powers of the Federal Government are protected.

What evidence do I offer of the attempted coup? Here is what we know for certain:

A redacted FBI form 302 report of the Michael Flynn interview is released

By Robert Willmann

Sure enough, the office of "special counsel" Robert Mueller continued its practice of hiding the ball until forced to disclose something, at which time it is usually filed with the court clerk "under seal".  They have filed some documents under seal regarding the FBI's interview of Gen. Michael Flynn (ret.) after the court's order of 12 December 2018.  Out of whatever was filed, the public has no idea of even the number of documents or the title or general type of document, because no index or log is required to be filed, something Congress or the federal judicial council should change.  

The FBI form FD-302 was presented under seal, probably both with and without redactions, since the court's order written yesterday on the clerk's docket sheet says:  "... the Court finds that the January 24, 2017 FD-302, which was drafted immediately after Mr. Flynn's FBI interview, is relevant to Mr. Flynn's sentencing. The Court also finds that the government's proposed redactions to that document are appropriate ...."

The letter filed with the redacted report says that two versions of the form are presented, each one is 5 pages.  The first one had a headline saying "draft document/deliberative material", and when that "error was recognized", the header was removed and a "corrected version", without the header but with the same contents, was re-signed and re-certified on 31 May 2017.  Robert Mueller was appointed the special counsel on 17 May 2017.

Flynn's sentencing hearing is set for 11:00 a.m. today in a federal district court in Washington D.C.

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/flynn_gov_letter_about_the_form_302.pdf

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/flynn_gov_interview_302.pdf

P.S. and update.  The original notes and original note material taken during the Flynn interview have not been disclosed, and they are supposed to be retained.  Most likely, they were not filed with the court clerk under seal, although they are relevant because they, and the agents' memories, are used to write the 302 form, which is obviously not a verbatim transcript.  Usually, an interview is done by two FBI agents, and one takes notes.  With excellent high fidelity audio recording equipment available today, the interviews should be recorded. 

The name of the other FBI agent at the Flynn interview has been blacked out in the reports, but two letters of earlier this year from Senate Judiciary Chairman Charles Grassley reveal who it likely is, as the FBI and Justice Department have refused to let him testify for a transcribed interview with the judiciary committee staff.

 

The Kurds and the art of BOHICA - TTG

US President Donald Trump gave a positive response to Turkey’s operation east of the Euphrates, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on December 17 following a phone call with the US President, according to Turkish media. “We can start our operation any moment now in Syrian territory at any place, especially along the 500-kilometer border, without harming U.S. soldiers,” Erdogan said at the opening ceremony at Mevlana Square in central Konya province.

Erdogan said that he had told his Trump that “terrorists” must leave the region east of the Euphrates River. “If they don’t go, we will send them,” he said. “The terror corridor [in Syria] is disturbing us. Since we are partners with the US, we must do this.”

The Turkish President also called on the US to uphold to the Manbij deal to clear the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from the region. “Our fight against terrorism in the Syrian territory will continue until a political solution is opened,” Erdogan said.

Last weekend, Erdogan announced that Turkey is about to launch to a military operation against the YPG in the area east of the Euphrates. According to sources in pro-Turkish militant groups, about 15,000 members of pro-Turkish militant factions are ready to participate in this attack.  (SouthFront)

***************************

Erdogan announced this coming offensive on 12 December during the Turkish Defense Industry Summit. There has been a steady beat of the war drums in Turkey since that announcement. The initial targets of this FSA offensive appear to be Kobani (Ayn Arab) and Tell Abyad. Although the FSA forces are massing north of the border, Turkish troops will not take part in order to avoid any confrontation with US forces. 

The US has established observation posts in this area ostensibly to protect Turkey from “terror threats.” In actuality the presence of US troops on the border are meant to discourage the kind of invasion that Erdogan announced on the 12th. This South Front article casts doubts on this strategy. Has Trump decided to abandon the Rojava Kurds? We have a rich tradition of abandoning Kurds so he would not be breaking new ground here. However, the Kurdish YPG/YPJ are the backbone of the SDF and our ongoing efforts to establish a lasting presence east of the Euphrates. Perhaps Trump has decided to abandon that policy. Has he made peace (in his mind) with Iran? That would be a major shift and a major blow to neocon strategy in the region. It would also be a kick square in the stones of both the Israelis and Saudis.

Unfortunately, Erdogan may be reading too much into his phone conversation with Trump. Trump has a lot on his mind right now and he may not have clearly expressed what he wants or is willing to accept. It wouldn’t be the first time a poorly enunciated political message has led to an invasion in the region. We won’t know until Erdogan’s FSA jihadis cross the border and threaten Kobani. Remember the last time the jihadis were at the gates of Kobani? We brought scunion down on their heads while the YPG/YPJ held them by their short and curlies.

TTG

https://southfront.org/trump-gives-positive-response-to-turkeys-operation-east-of-euphrates-erdogan/

The great game revived – power politics in the ex-East Bloc II. by Balint Somkuti

Sine ira et studio. – Tacitus: Annales

Description is neither advocacy, nor dismissal. It is what it is. The best possible description of events.

The below essay focuses on foreign powers’ intentions and actions toward the former central European communist countries. The conclusions presented below are solely mine, and do not represent any governmental or other bodies’ views. These are admittedly from a Visegrad 4, or to be more precise a Hungarian point of view, our fellow Czech, polish, and Slovak allies may disagree with some, but definitely not most points.

Ambiguity, and/or lack of clear mutually accepted goals towards this region especially towards Hungary was visibly present in US policy after 1990. Poland was always an exception from US point of view due to the large and well organized polish community, not to mention the influence of Mr. Brzezinski, a polish noble whose family was exiled by the soviets. Going towards the lesser resistance was probably the primary motivating factor like the late General William Odom has said: "The socialists have a sense of guilt (sic!) and are eager to cooperate with the US." – explained.  "This is such an advantage which would be foolish to miss. The ex-communists of Hungary comply to anything we say just like they did with their soviet masters. And are usually surprised that it is easier to come to terms with us."

Based on the above it is obvious why previous conservative govts with a clear intent to have at least some say in the bilateral relations, usually in support of the Hungarian minorities abroad, did not have too much of leverage.  Especially after the govt. of Mr. Antal, the first freely elected prime minister in 1990 won the election against the hopes of a small local party disguised as anti-communist, and clearly an American favourite: Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége (Alliance of Free Democrats). Sporting a clearly neoliberal/human rights ideology, and at the same time representing the biggest eastern-european jewish community (some 100 000 in a 10 million country), they had excellent connections to US decision makers, and after some self-description attempts by the benevolent, but completely naïve and unprepared govt., the cabinet was quickly labeled fascist, and right-wing extremist. PM Antal’s father was a well-known Christian democrat, a minister of interior, an internationally acclaimed protector of refugees in WWII and a Righteous Among the Nations title holder. His son allegedly was an ardent anti-Semite. For sure. Yet this narrative was quickly accepted and US ambassadors acted accordingly, especially after the coalition of the ex-communists with the Free Democrats in 1994. This double standard made all Hungarian conservatives sour. It was a very hard thing to swallow, that our liberators suddenly and completely sided with their sworn enemy the (ex-)communists, and that principles about human rights and protection of minorities were only selectively applied. Of course we were also naïve thinking that principles are more important than interests.

Neoliberalism ran amok after that leading to a small, but decisive conservative victory in 1998. At the peak of the Balkan wars the joy of joining NATO overhelmed the society and the elite alike but sobering was quick to follow. In the effort of getting rid of soviet made weapons, and enhance “alliance ties” a package of aircrafts and equipment was offered to the newly joined members (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland). Slovakia was deemed to be under too much Russian influence at that time. Oh by the way because of this sped up process we were the only land locked NATO member isolated geographically from the alliance until Slovakia joined in 2004. So the offer was evaluated, and it caused some head scratching among experts, when it was realized that these would be ageing, reactivated, early production F-16 A/Bs from the Arizona aircraft boneyard, with capabilities only superficially surpassing the already in service Mig-29s’ acquired from Russia, ex-factory, some 5 years before as a compensation for outstanding debt from soviet times. To add injury to the insult the price of this not really advantageous package was suddenly doubled in the last round of negotiations. To the surprise of the US delegation both the Czech and the Hungarian partners refused these terms, only the poles went along. The long sought successor of the MiGs suddenly became the Swedish Gripen (which uses licensed US engine and weaponry of almost exclusively of US origin, but that is another story). This has clearly outraged Pres. W. Bush, and relations took such a blow that they have not recuperated ever since.

After a surprise defeat the social democrat turned ex-communists and their free democrat partners came back, led by a communist deputy financial minister, who was enamored in the French to such an extent that his services have earned him a French Legion Of Honor. Not too much laurels for American businessmen either. His successor made headlines when in a leaked speech he openly admitted lying, and faking statistics thus rigging the elections. Russian influence peaked when this guy, does not even worth mentioning his name, used Russian operatives to scour after conservative minded members of Hungarian intelligence services. Nobody was really surprised when the opposition has won the 2010 elections. PM Orban’s actions ever since are visibly are based on his previous experiences.

They say your enemy defines who you really are. In that case Mr. Orban is a world stage player since his awowed enemy is nobody less than the world’s biggest, or at least most famous hedge fund manager George Soros. In an odd twist of fate Mr. Soros is of Hungarian origin and Mr. Orban had a Soros scholarship way back in 1989. As the Open Society Foundation’s (OSF) goals are clearly not what the overwhelming majority of the Hungarian voters want it should come as no surprise that PM Orban felt empowered to tilt back the civil society’s seriously left leaning playground. When the Norwegian state’s Norwegian Fund and attached parts of allegedly independent organizations were raided by shock police in 2014 after the second election won by overwhelming 2/3 majority, it came as surprise for both sides. For the Left and the eurocrats such bold moves were unimaginable, for the Right the published names of these Norwegian and EU organizations’ leaders, consisting almost exclusively of US citizens clearly connected to Mr. Soros. The deeply interentwined network of neoliberal controlled governmental, non-governmental and civil society, previously were thought to be a mere conspiration theory has only heightened anti-US sentiment since in most occasions it was really difficult to separate US, or better put Deep State interests from Soros’. If you add that Mr. Soros was named as a global threat (along with Bin Ladin and Pablo Escobar) in a very often overlooked and more often misunderstood book by the Chinese senior colonels Wang and Xiansui titled Unrestricted Warfare you easily come to the local govt’s point, that from then on anything of US origin was treated as highly suspicious. The Obama govt. and especially Hillary Clinton wasted no possibility to bash the officially announced “illiberal trends in Hungary” to be honest with some reason since Mr. Orban has clearly moved away from the western economic-political system, where economy moves politics to a clearly eastern system where politics has supremacy over economy, especially foreign financial interests. Only after the third consecutively won election in 2018 has the Hungarian govt felt himself strong enough to openly confront Mr. Soros, although a billboard campaign was launched in 2016 saying Stop Soros and the illegal migration creating yet another uproar from the Left for allegedly being anti-Semite yet again. Fortunately even the Israeli ambassador and a Hungarian religious jewish community leader stood up against this nonsense. The so called Central European University, the flagbearer of the OSF has functioned on dubious foundations issuing US and Hungarian degrees alike for the same education. Such close is the relation of US and Soros interests, that even after the election of Pres. Trump and the arrival of his personally appointed Ambassador, Mr. Cornstein this issue was causing tensions. Finally the CEU was forced to move, and continue his “beneficial” activities somewhere else.

In a rare peak into true power politics Amb. Cornstein let the janissary school’s (CEU) issue go quite easily in a recent interview, where he stated that even though Pres. Trump and PM Orban has a lot in common some steps from our side are missing to facilitate their personal meeting, developing relations that is. “It could be a defense agreement, a step to decrease unilateral energy source dependence, or helping to solve the Ukrainian situation.” – he said. Yet all of these would require significant sacrifices from us.

1. Like the 1999 case with the F-16s shows buying American weapons for billions of dollars is a risky business and would put significant strains on the country, which is among the poorest in Europe.
2. Buying US liquid natural gas would increase energy prices by 50-70% percent obviously leading to popular dissent
3. Allow the forceful assimilation of 150 000 hungarians in Transcarpathia, because of obscure and unknown American interests or just because we ask. Well that would also cause significant interior uproar and a significant loss of support for the govt.

The above is even more shocking in comparison to Russian way of dealing, especially since it shows that there is no way such a small country may strike a fair deal with the US even in favorable times. Don’t misunderstood me the russian modus operandi also makes you feel the relative positions, your weakness that is. You have to first make a gesture, a bona fide step which they ask of you in advance. In order to prove yourself and to show that they are in a better position. This is usually a small diplomatic support or the selling/giving up some international/national position. If you do that what comes after is usually a mutually beneficial cooperation. In case you are dealing with US officials the terms are dictated and you have the only option of saying yes. Should you say no you are immediately made the consequences felt. Yet advancing one’s interests is not a one way street. The above method may have worked when the threat of an all consuming Soviet Union always loomed on the horizon and more importantly a communist revolution was likely. Not today. Like Human League sings in their song Heart like a wheel: „You can’t make friends with an M-16”.

As of today western alignment serves our interests better but as shown above steps are already made to loosen these ties, as the relation has become too one sided, demanding too much for little in return. This is also true towards our other important ally, the EU and especially Germany whose steps will be discussed in the next chapter.

The Mueller group disclosed only 2 redacted documents that were already known

By Robert Willmann

On Friday, 14 December 2018, the office of "special counsel" Robert Mueller filed a reply to Gen. Michael Flynn's sentencing memorandum by the court's deadline, as noted on the court clerk's docket sheet--

"12/14/2018 56 REPLY by USA as to MICHAEL T. FLYNN to Defendant's Memorandum in Aid of Sentencing (Attachments: # 1 Attachment A, # 2 Attachment B)(Van Grack, Brandon) (Entered: 12/14/2018)".

Judge Emmet Sullivan in an order on 12 December stated:   "In 50 defendant's memorandum in aid of sentencing, the defendant quotes and cites a 'Memorandum dated Jan. 24, 2017.' See page 8 n. 21, 22. The defendant also quotes and cites a 'FD-302 dated Aug. 22, 2017.' See page 9 n. 23-27. The defendant is ORDERED to file on the docket FORTHWITH the cited Memorandum and FD-302. The Court further ORDERS the government to file on the docket any 302s or memoranda relevant to the circumstances discussed on pages 7-9 of the defendant's sentencing memorandum by no later than 3:00 p.m. on December 14, 2018."

In response to Judge Sullivan's order, the Mueller group attached to its reply memo two noticeably blacked out (redacted) documents, which turned out to be the same ones that were referred to in Flynn's memo raising the issue of FBI conduct surrounding his interview, and were nothing additional or new!

The government's reply and two documents that were filed are here--

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/flynn_gov_sentence_reply_memo.pdf

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/flynn_gov_fbi_notes_20170124.pdf

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/flynn_gov_fbi_302_strzok_20170719.pdf

The two redacted documents are the "January 24, 2017" memo and the "FD-302 dated Aug. 22, 2017", which were cited in the court's order and which Flynn's lawyers apparently already had, or knew what they were about.  Judge Sullivan ordered the Mueller group to produce "any 302s or memoranda relevant to the circumstances discussed on pages 7-9 of the defendant's sentencing memorandum", not just the two that were already known [emphasis added].  The "Attachment B" is not the form 302 by an agent who interviewed Flynn on 24 January 2017, but rather is a 302 report by an unknown person of an interview of now former FBI agent Peter Strzok on 20 July 2017, in which Strzok allegedly talks about some things that happened on 24 January. 

 

I don't feel well today ...

I am taking a break.  pl

Judge Emmet Sullivan in the Michael Flynn case orders the Mueller group to disclose interview material

By Robert Willmann

Two days ago, federal judge Emmet Sullivan in Washington D.C. ordered the "special counsel" Robert Mueller group to do the following by 3:00 p.m. eastern time today, as shown on the court clerk's docket sheet--

"12/12/2018 MINUTE ORDER as to MICHAEL T. FLYNN. In 50 defendant's memorandum in aid of sentencing, the defendant quotes and cites a 'Memorandum dated Jan. 24, 2017.' See page 8 n. 21, 22. The defendant also quotes and cites a 'FD-302 dated Aug. 22, 2017.' See page 9 n. 23-27. The defendant is ORDERED to file on the docket FORTHWITH the cited Memorandum and FD-302. The Court further ORDERS the government to file on the docket any 302s or memoranda relevant to the circumstances discussed on pages 7-9 of the defendant's sentencing memorandum by no later than 3:00 p.m. on December 14, 2018. Should the parties seek to file such material under seal, the parties may file motions for leave to do so. The government is also ORDERED to file its reply to the defendant's sentencing memorandum by no later than 3:00 p.m. on December 14, 2018. Signed by Judge Emmet G. Sullivan on 12/12/2018. (lcegs3) (Entered: 12/12/2018)"

Judge Sullivan is a Black lawyer who came up the hard way, going to Washington D.C. public schools and Howard University and its law school.  Howard University has been a reputable university with a full curriculum as it provided education to Black Americans from the time of segregation.  He was appointed by three different U.S. presidents to judicial positions, by Reagan, Bush sr, and Bill Clinton [1].

The actions and investigation regarding Gen. Michael Flynn (ret.) beginning when he was removed as National Security Advisor to president Trump have seemed odd and not to square with past behavior and the normal course of things.  With little information available publicly it is very difficult to look at the issue and pick through information, since it has been mainly hidden behind the skirts of the Mueller "investigation", which was supposed to look at "interference" by the Russian government in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.  

Flynn's sentencing is set for next Tuesday, 18 December.  However, that is subject to change, depending on what is filed today.  I will try to provide some relevant items from the court clerk's file that you can read to bring yourself up to date about the court case from what is available; some items are still filed under seal, and the probation office presentence investigation report (PSI) is kept private as a matter of federal judicial policy.  

 

More than 33,000 refugees have returned to Syria from Jordan since reopening of Nassib Crossing

"Up to 33,500 refugees have reportedly returned to Syria from Jordan through the Nassib border crossing within past two months, footage released on Friday shows.

According to the Russian Centre for Reconciliation of Warring Parties in Syria, between 600-700 Syrian citizens return to the country daily through the Nassib border crossing.

One of the refugees, who deserted from the Syrian army during the conflict, said that he decided to return “after the change of conditions in Syria and the liberation of most of the territory from terrorists,” in addition the amnesty for army deserters announced by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The two countries agreed to reopen the transit route that has been an essential commercial crossing for both countries until its closure in 2015."AMN

-------------

There have also been several thousand exiles returned from Europe, Turkey, Lebanon, etc.  Anyone have the numbers?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/more-than-33000-refugees-have-returned-to-syria-from-jordan-since-reopening-of-nassib-crossing/

Trolls

The great game revived – power politics in the ex-East Bloc I.

Doctor Somkuti is joining us as a guest author.  We welcome this Hungarian point of view.  pl

------------

"The russians are coming in, the americans are slowly getting out, and the germans are already up."

 

by Balint Somkuti, PhD

 

The below essay focuses on foreign powers’ intentions and actions toward the former central European communist countries. The conclusions presented below are solely mine, and do not represent any governmental or other bodies’ views. These are admittedly from a Visegrad 4, or to be more precise a Hungarian point of view, our fellow Czech, polish, and Slovak allies may disagree with some, but definitely not most points. In the first part of the essay Russian methods and interests are examined, the 2nd will be treating US steps, and the final concluding one will discuss German and local actions taken.   

So let’s start with the Russians. For them, elite and society alike, grandeur and the self image of a great power is self evident. Only the most devoted, and ardent anti-Russians try to deny it, which is as foolhardy as it seems especially regarding the cca. 2000 nuclear warheads Russia possesses, as well as a seat at UN Security Council. Yet this position is precarious to say at least since this huge destructive power is coupled with a secondary economical power. The Russian leadership is completely aware of that ambiguous situation, meaning they know that a classical military conflict does not favour them even in the abysmal status of European military forces.  

Yet 2 factors determine their thinking.

1. Millions of ethnic Russians inserted mostly by the communist regime into previously ethnically more or less homogenous areas. This system is not new, all multi-ethnical empires did the same, e.g. the Austrian Habsburgs. This is how serbs got into northern Hungary, Slovaks into the south etc. The related term used in conjunction with them ‘close abroad’ speaks for itself.
2. The former central European communist countries for whose conquest hundreds of thousands of Russians gave their life. The vehemently defended monuments erected in all  conquered capitals are a testimony for this. 

The first is not difficult to understand, although does not affect us directly, but the second in my opinion is widely misunderstood. Our region is not primarily interesting for them because of influence, and especially sphere of influence, since these have a significant soft power/cultural aspect and who wants to live like contemporary average Russians do. (As a side note looking at the current terror and social situation in France and Germany or Sweden illiberal states DO have an appeal.) I think it has more to do with the general Russian paranoia about invaders, and foreign powers’ meddling into their affairs.  The further a possible staging area is from their borders the better. Not to mention modern intelligence and information gathering methods in which the NATO and especially the US excels. A Joint STARS, or a Rivet Joint plane can „eavesdrop” into hundreds of kilometers into foreign territory even when flying comfortably deep in own territory.

Russian grand strategy seems to be aimed at maximal return at minimal investment, and they dug deeply in their pocket only when it is really compulsory. A good example is the Nabucco gas pipe line. When its building was started to bring Azeri/Iranian gas into Europe in order to decrease dependence on Russian natural gas, the terminal point of that line, the Austrian Schwechat gas depot was already in Russian hands. How and why? Very simple. Pres. Putin offered a helping hand to the beleaguered Austrian govt. which were at the time under joint European and US embargo due to their coalition with Freiheits Partei Österreichs (a clearly anti-emigrant party), a coalition partner of the christian democrats in 2000. Buying the privatized installation was a brilliant move.  Although not a surprising one when someone wrote his thesis on enabling Russian influence in Europe through the use of energy sources, which allegedly Pres. Putin did.  

When Hungary accepted Russian govt offer about a loan of 10 billion Euros to build the second phase of the only local atomic power plant a series of minor diplomatic and internal scandals erupted. These were covered in detail by a watchdog, openly financed by George Soros (more on this in the next part). One of the issues were the planned sole use of Russian technology. After US and French firms receiving big chunks of that business voices against this investment weathered down. So much about value driven diplomacy. In the second published case a Russian company wanted to forcibly take over a joint, local firm, with 50-50 ownership also related to the nuclear power plant. The Hungarian owners took the case to the court and won, which the Russian company grudgingly accepted. 

Oddly enough Russian influence in Hungary was not an issue during the social democrat-liberal government of PM Gyurcsány, who as an ex-communist was heartily welcomed by Pres. Putin in his dacha, near Moscow, basically the Russian counterpart to US Camp David. Such was Gyurcsány’s position within western decisionmakers, that he even got away with the fact that he used Russian intelligence personnel (!) to personally and locally scour after opposition (conservative) aligned members among the ranks of Hungarian intelligence, and other national security officers.  Have I said something about value-driven foreign policy of the EU or the US?

These stories clearly show the limits but also the possibilities of Russian influence in a NATO and EU member country. To me it seems that the Russians are after getting back some of their economical positions in their former satellites, with the help of clever political maneuvering and clandestine methods among the growing frustration of the ivory tower Eurocrats and their American counterparts.

Russian influence of course varies in V4 countries. For example under prime minister Meciar, Russian influence was significantly stronger in Slovakia, and was always present to some extent in the Czech Republic for historical reasons. In Poland after 120+45 years of Russian occupation /1795-1919, 1945-1990/ there is a clearly anti-Russian sentiment, which is highly unlikely to disappear, especially after the highly controversial Smolensk air disaster in 2010. Speaking of history. Living historical memories is another regional aspect often overlooked by outside viewers. We are not like western people, who tend to view their past with a ‘get over it’ feeling. Borders are non-existent for people over the Leitha as we say, since decades, yet are still a living thing here. Not to mention who has fought whom, and what result. I always keep saying (ceterum censeo) that you are cautious with a great power you fought 5 times in the last 150 years /1849,1914-18, 1919, 1941-45, 1956/.  Yet thinking similarly russians seem to understand local sensitivity (see Pres. Putin's words on borders in 2016 in a Bloomberg interview).  

To sum it up Russian decisionmakers seem to know their limits in this region. Apart from the occasional political meddling, and diplomatical show of force their intentions seem to be to remain on the markets, and to hinder yet another military attack from the West against their Motherland.

Desire - By Richard T. Sale

     It was a tall, unbelievably beautiful tree, finely shaped, with a great, green spreading crest, black dark green leaves, pales blossoms and long, sharp thorns.

  But in spite of its being a splendid sight, some said it was deadly.

     Certainly all the birds said so. They were used to bending the branches of a shorter, modest, more homely nearby trees with their weight as they chattered among themselves about butterflies, bees, worms and the other birds that had flown in among the magnificent trees spreading branches and had never been seen again.

     “It may be a beautiful tree, but who cares if you look beautiful if that’s what you’re really like,” said one fluffy brown bird.

    And then the birds all gossiped about the strange, towering tree, so beautiful and so alluring, and yet at times looking so sinister. But in grand, stately appearance and various attractions, truly the tree had no like.

     But then a strange bird, a newcomer, flew into the deep wood.

     He was red in color with a big crest, strong-beaked, and he was a bird who clearly liked to think things out for himself. That was his strength. He heard what others said, but it never moved him, for he thought with his eyes. Want he saw told him the truth. The eyes never lied.

     The new bird instantly saw that the tall tree was beautiful. He saw its lines, its grace, and its majesty of spectacle. He clung tightly with his clawed feet to a branch of a tree nearby and looked at the tall magnificent tree, struck, moved, touched.

     Around him, one by one, gathered the full, feathery chattering sparrows and small birds who talked tirelessly of the tall tree.

     One, a little sparrow, quite fearless, tilted her head to one side and said to the big red bird, “Why do you watch it so?”

     “Because it is a pleasure to my eyes,” the crested bird said, not deigning to look at the sparrow.

     The sparrow quickly shook its head with vigor. “If something harmful were ugly, you wouldn’t look at it, but because the tree is pretty, you can’t take your eyes from it.”

     The sparrow thought its remark clever and insightful, but the crested bird thought the sparrow merely envious of the tree’s size and beauty.

     He didn’t see that the little sparrow respected and cared for him as a friend and fellow creature and was thinking of its safety.

     The crested bird kept looking at the tree. He kept thinking, “Perhaps no one has looked at it as I am looking at it. Perhaps if I look deeply enough, I will see what no one else has seen, something beyond the rumors, something beyond the fear, something enduring and wonderful, that is hidden from the rest.”

     And he kept looking at the tree, gazing at it, rapt.

     Twilight came, softening the outlines of things, darkening the mountain, the bushes and shrubs, and the red bird sat and watched the darkening tree.

     In the dark, its color gone, the delicate blossoms muffled, the outline of the tall tree was a sinister shape full of menace.

     And the crested bird felt a flicker of fear. Maybe the other birds were right and he was wrong. Maybe his eyes had betrayed him.

     He snuffled his feet and feathers, uneasy, still looking at the tree from his branch, about to fly away, when a voice was heard to say:

     “You needn’t feel fear. You needn’t be afraid.”

     And the bird looked this way and that, wondering where the voice was coming from and to whom it was speaking.

     “It is you, and only you, that I am addressing,” said the voice, coming clearly to him across the darkening air.

     The bird nerved up his courage, for he was not in the habit of taking counsel of his fears, but he was hardly able to believe what was happening. Finally, it addressed the dark, huge towering shape, feeling foolish and frightened.

     “I am here. Who is speaking to me?”

     “I speak to you through your heart,” said the voice.

     The bird, greatly alarmed, almost flew away, and it was only with a great effort that he calmed himself and remained on his branch.

    “But who are you?” he said.

     “I am your heart’s desire,” the voice said kindly.

     The bird cocked his head, entranced, alert but listening.

     “I have no heart’s desire,” the bird said, “and if I did, I would tell no one of it, for fear they might find a way into my heart and be able to do me harm.”

     The tree with its spreading, dark outline answered: “I would not harm you. I may have harmed others, but that was because they came to feed on my blossoms or peck into my sap, or try to make use of me in some way. So many have tried. All have tried. But I have seen the way you look at me, and you I would not harm.”

     The bird, greatly disconcerted, cocked its head to the other side, shifting its clawed feet on the branch. “And how have I looked at you?”

     “With love, with gentle love. Because you don’t believe the other birds,” said the lovely voice.

     The red, crested bird, nervous, puts its head down, then up, and then cocked it to one side.

     “That means only that I wish to think for myself,” he said.

     “Then why do you look at me so?” said the voice from the tree.

     The bird, nervous, shifted position again.

     “Because you are beautiful,” the bird said, quietly, but firm and fearless in telling the truth.

     The huge tree said nothing. In the dark, night began to deepen, the sky was specked with stars, but the tree was almost black. And again, with it wide, crown-like crest, the tall tree looked almost menacing.

     But the bird, now warmed and moved by what the tree had said, recollected in its mind how beautiful the tree’s colors had been by day, in the summer sun’s full flood of light.

     “I can feel your thoughts,” said the tall tree in the dark.

     “Unlikely,” scoffed the crested bird, but feeling a bit frightened.

   It cocked its head sideways again.

     “You think my colors beautiful in the sun,” the voice said.

     The bird stiffened upright, lifting first one foot, then the other, then cocking its head to one side again.

     “Come to me,” said the tree.

     The bird cocked its head to one side, peering into the gloom at the menacing shape.

     “Come to me,” the voice repeated, its tone a kind of gentle urging, so gentle, so soothing, so full of tender love.

Macron, La Marseillaise, and Les Gilets Jaunes

"Aux armes citoyens!  Formez vos battaillons!" etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIxOl1EraXA

It would appear that Macron had not seriously contemplated his country's national anthem, nor its bloody history of popular revolt in the streets.  Fortunately for him the guillotine is long gone.  The Communards of 1871 come to mind.  Macron has surrendered to the foule  Whatever actual political authority he has had is done.  He might as well resign and save himself from further humiliation.  His ineptitude may be the harbinger of an end to the 5th Republic.Did Macron really think that that the citizens of France would meekly submit to his fuels tax?  And then, having brought this on, he shrank from suppressing the unrest!  Amazing!  pl

https://southfront.org/in-map-security-measures-of-macron-government-to-crack-down-on-yellow-vest-protests/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communards

Open Thread 11 December, 2018

pl

An editorial on Trump's methods

IMO Trump has no real use for a chief-of-staff in the White House.

I heard Anthony Scaramucci (the little guy who was in the WH for a couple of days) say on TeeVee yesterday that Donaldo has his own way of doing things that involves establishing a "hub and spokes" system and that he needs people he trusts and who accept his personal judgment, judgment based on his own "feel" for situations.

I have seen this kind of methodology many times before in the world of sole owner entrepreneurial business.  In that world egotism is king and the owner/wheeler dealer stands alone surrounded by underlings and consultants.  For him they are nothing.  They are expendable assets who exist only to serve his egocentric will and interests.  They are there to be useful to him and can be disposed of whenever they are not.   Trump operates exactly that way.  Subordinates are disposable at will.  Institutions mean nothing to such a man.  He needs a secretary to run errands for him, not a chief-of-staff who will inevitably wish to be a "player."  Anyone who takes the job is a fool.

In this context the case of the Trump announcement, a year in advance of his term's end, of a replacement for the CJCS, General Joseph Dunford USMC is interesting. Trump has announced that General Mark Milley, the present US Army Chief-Of-Staff, will succeed.  The question is - why announce now?  And why announce this now with a "footnote" to the effect that the "transfer" date will be announced at some future unspecified date?  Milley is a loquacious, big, and energetic man who is reportedly quite good at the backslapping, locker room chit-chat that Trump is comfortable with.  He undoubtedly has made a good impression on Trump in personal contacts and impression is all important in dealing with Trump.

OTOH Milley is really not like Trump.  He is an Ivy League product of Princeton and Columbia Universities, is widely read in history, is personally as brave as a lion on the battlefield and has a record of working well within the institutions of the armed forces for systematic re-structuring of the Army.   I will guess that the president doesn't really know much about Milley.  IMO he will inevitably and quickly be displeased with Milley when he is CJCS.

So, why has Trump done this?  My present theory is that DJT is displeased with Dunford and wishes to hold over his head the threat of quick dismissal.  This is a close analogy of the way people like Trump operate in business where it is routine to undermine subordinates for the purpose of creating insecurity leading to prostrate submission to the throne.  pl

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-looking-at-several-candidates-for-chief-of-staff_us_5c0e5a81e4b0a606a9aae141

https://www.npr.org/2018/12/08/674935309/meet-mark-milley-trumps-pick-for-joint-chiefs-chairman

China journeys to the dark side of the Moon - TTG

The first-ever surface mission to the far side of the moon is underway. China's robotic Chang'e 4 spacecraft streaked away from Earth today (Dec. 7), launching atop a Long March 3B rocket from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center at about 1:23 p.m. EST (1823 GMT; 2:23 a.m. on Dec. 8 local China time).

If all goes according to plan, Chang'e 4 will make history's first landing on the lunar far side sometime in early January. The mission, which consists of a stationary lander and a rover, will perform a variety of science work and plant a flag for humanity in a region that remains largely unexplored to date.

The moon is tidally locked to Earth, meaning the natural satellite takes about the same amount of time to spin once on its axis as it does to orbit our planet. So, here on Earth, we always see the same face of our cosmic neighbor. That would be the near side. The far side remains forever out of view, and that explains why this obscured surface has yet to welcome a robotic visitor. Communicating with a far-side lander or rover is difficult, because the entirety of the moon's solid, rocky body would block direct signals traveling to and fro.

To solve this problem, China launched a satellite called Quegiao this past May. Queqiao has set up shop at the Earth-moon Lagrange point 2, a gravitationally stable spot beyond the moon from which the satellite will be able to relay communications between mission control and Chang'e 4.

The spacecraft's signals will likely be coming from the floor of Von Kármán Crater, a 115-mile-wide (186 kilometers) hole in the ground that's the mission's expected landing site. Von Kármán is part of the South Pole-Aitken Basin, one of the biggest impact features in the solar system; it spans a whopping 1,600 miles (2,500 km) from rim to rim.  (space.com)

*************************

I know. Far side is far more accurate than dark side. Both sides of the Moon get equal amounts of sunlight, but I prefer dark side… Pink Floyd and all. It goes well with the Chinese reference to legends in their lunar exploration program. Chang'e is a Moon goddess. Queqiao is the magpie bridge from a very appropriate legend. My favorite is Yutu or Jade Rabbit, the Chinese rabbit in the Moon. Yutu is the lunar rover that will roam the dark side of the Moon if all goes as planned.

A lot’s been happening in space lately. We’ve heard the howling of the Martian winds. SpaceX launched a slew of communication satellites on one of their well used rockets, as well as sending a cargo ship to the ISS with Christmas dinner aboard. And Roscosmos sent the Soyuz MS-11 to the ISS with a Russian cosmonaut along with an American and a Canadian astronaut, just in time for that Christmas dinner.

I did not know that China is prohibited from participating in the ISS program. I don’t know the reason why this is so. I do know that US objects to Chinese participation in ESA programs although the ESA is open to Chinese participation. This is a monumentally shortsighted policy. There should be a Chinese taikonaut on the ISS in 2019.

TTG

https://www.space.com/42665-china-launches-moon-far-side-lander-rover.html

The Planetary Society has an excellent article on the Chinese lunar missions written by Long Xiao, a planetary geoscientist at the China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) and the Macau University of Science and Technology.

http://www.planetary.org/explore/the-planetary-report/china-new-lunar-missions.html 

Is the EU collapsing?

"Today, there are far too few of the 28 EU countries that have been lifted out of their poverty and other conditions that made them want to join the Union. And within many of the countries, there are way too many people who are, and feel, left behind. While Brussels has become a bastion of power that none of the disadvantaged feel they can properly address with their grievances.

The main fault of the EU is that the biggest party at the table always in the end, when things get serious, gets its way. The 80 million or so people of Germany de facto rule the 500 million of the Union, or you know, the three handfuls that rule Germany. No important decision can or will ever be taken that Berlin does not agree with. Angela Merkel has been the CEO of Europe Inc. since November 22 2005, gathering more power as time went by. That was never going to work unless she made everyone richer. Ask the Greeks about that one.

Merkel was the leader of both Germany and of Europe, and when things got precarious, she chose to let German interests prevail above Italian or Greek ones. That’s the fundamental flaw and failure of the Union in a nutshell. All other things, the Greek crisis, Salvini, Macron, Brexit, are mere consequences of that flaw. In absence of a forever economic boom, there is nothing left to fall back on.  SF

-----------

A persuasive article, the Europeans here can now explain to us all how much better and more virtuous Europe is than the United States.

What was it that Macron was saying about a European army?  The CRS and the Gendarmerie Mobile will get this under control but Macron may well be neutered by the unrest. 

FWIW, the disparate power exercised by the great and the small states under present EU conditions is exactly what the US Framers successfully avoided by the Great Compromises in the US Constitution.  pl

https://southfront.org/macron-heralds-the-end-of-the-union/

Michael Flynn

"(b) The President or the Secretary of Defense, or in the case of a commissioned officer of the Coast Guard, the Secretary of the department in which the Coast Guard is operating when it is not operating in the Navy, may drop from the rolls of any armed force any commissioned officer (1) who has been absent without authority for at least three months, (2) who may be separated under section 1167 of this title by reason of a sentence to confinement adjudged by a court-martial, or (3) who is sentenced to confinement in a Federal or State penitentiary or correctional institution after having been found guilty of an offense by a court other than a court-martial or other military court, and whose sentence has become final."  Title 10, 1161

--------------

Let us be clear.

Commissioned officers in the US Armed Forces cannot be sentenced to military prison after court-martial.  They must be "dismissed," i.e., expelled from the service before that can happen.  As stated above, a similar thing is supposed to happen if a commissioned officer is sentenced to a civilian prison after conviction in a civilian court.

Michael Flynn is still a lieutenant general of the US Army.  A RETIRED (as opposed to former) regular commissioned officer of the Army is still an officer, subject to recall for further service, punishment or administrative changes in his status.  Title 10,  para 1161 (b) above makes it very clear that if Flynn serves time in a civilian prison after a sentence becomes final then he could be dismissed from the Army by the president or Secretary of Defense. 

Retired Regular service members do not receive vested pension benefits.  They receive Retirement Pay.  This is a reduced amount of their active duty pay.  They did not pay into the funds that pay them retirement pay every month.  This is is pay, not a vested pension. 

If an officer is dismissed from the service for whichever reason, (court-martial or civilian prison sentence) all identity with the service is lost to include rank, pay, all benefits to include medical for him and his family.

Some of you will pleased with that.  Others not so much.

The president or SECDEF might not want to do that to Flynn, but it would be difficult to have a lieutenant general serving a civilian prison sentence .

If the legal eagles think I have this wrong, let me know.  pl

http://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title10-section1161&num=0&edition=prelim

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Flynn

"(b) The President or the Secretary of Defense, or in the case of a commissioned officer of the Coast Guard, the Secretary of the department in which the Coast Guard is operating when it is not operating in the Navy, may drop from the rolls of any armed force any commissioned officer (1) who has been absent without authority for at least three months, (2) who may be separated under section 1167 of this title by reason of a sentence to confinement adjudged by a court-martial, or (3) who is sentenced to confinement in a Federal or State penitentiary or correctional institution after having been found guilty of an offense by a court other than a court-martial or other military court, and whose sentence has become final."  Title 10, 1161

--------------

Let us be clear.

Commissioned officers in the US Armed Forces cannot be sentenced to military prison after court-martial.  They must be "dismissed," i.e., expelled from the service before that can happen.  As stated above, a similar thing is supposed to happen if a commissioned officer is sentenced to a civilian prison after conviction in a civilian court.

Michael Flynn is still a lieutenant general of the US Army.  A RETIRED (as opposed to former) regular commissioned officer of the Army is still an officer, subject to recall for further service, punishment or administrative changes in his status.  Title 10,  para 1161 (b) above makes it very clear that if Flynn serves time in a civilian prison after a sentence becomes final then he could be dismissed from the Army by the president or Secretary of Defense. 

Retired Regular service members do not receive vested pension benefits.  They receive Retirement Pay.  This is a reduced amount of their active duty pay.  They did not pay into the funds that pay them retirement pay every month.  This is is pay, not a vested pension. 

If an officer is dismissed from the service for whichever reason, (court-martial or civilian prison sentence) all identity with the service is lost to include rank, pay, all benefits to include medical for him and his family.

Some of you will pleased with that.  Others not so much.

The president or SECDEF might not want to do that to Flynn, but it would be difficult to have a lieutenant general serving a civilian prison sentence .

If the legal eagles think I have this wrong, let me know.  pl

http://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title10-section1161&num=0&edition=prelim

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Flynn

"(b) The President or the Secretary of Defense, or in the case of a commissioned officer of the Coast Guard, the Secretary of the department in which the Coast Guard is operating when it is not operating in the Navy, may drop from the rolls of any armed force any commissioned officer (1) who has been absent without authority for at least three months, (2) who may be separated under section 1167 of this title by reason of a sentence to confinement adjudged by a court-martial, or (3) who is sentenced to confinement in a Federal or State penitentiary or correctional institution after having been found guilty of an offense by a court other than a court-martial or other military court, and whose sentence has become final."  Title 10, 1161

--------------

Let us be clear.

Commissioned officers in the US Armed Forces cannot be sentenced to military prison after court-martial.  They must be "dismissed," i.e., expelled from the service before that can happen.  As stated above, a similar thing is supposed to happen if a commissioned officer is sentenced to a civilian prison after conviction in a civilian court.

Michael Flynn is still a lieutenant general of the US Army.  A RETIRED (as opposed to former) regular commissioned officer of the Army is still an officer, subject to recall for further service, punishment or administrative changes in his status.  Title 10,  para 1161 (b) above makes it very clear that if Flynn serves time in a civilian prison after a sentence becomes final then he could be dismissed from the Army by the president or Secretary of Defense. 

Retired Regular service members do not receive vested pension benefits.  They receive Retirement Pay.  This is a reduced amount of their active duty pay.  They did not pay into the funds that pay them retirement pay every month.  This is is pay, not a vested pension. 

If an officer is dismissed from the service for whichever reason, (court-martial or civilian prison sentence) all identity with the service is lost to include rank, pay, all benefits to include medical for him and his family.

Some of you will pleased with that.  Others not so much.

The president or SECDEF might not want to do that to Flynn, but it would be difficult to have a lieutenant general serving a civilian prison sentence .

If the legal eagles think I have this wrong, let me know.  pl

http://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title10-section1161&num=0&edition=prelim

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Flynn

HARPER: TRUMP-XI SUMMIT PAVED THE WAY FOR TRADE SOLUTION

Last weekend's summit meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping was more successful than the MSM wants you to believe.  From a combination of American and Chinese sources, I can report:

Xi Jinping came into the meeting fully prepared and well-versed in all of the critical trade disputes.  He was open to finding solutions and made clear that China is even flexible on the issue of intellectual property protections, a big part of the Trump-Lighthizer agenda.  While USTR Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are leading the US negotiations and Liu He is leading the Chinese team, the summit meeting made clear that it is actually Xi and Trump who will be leading the effort.

One of the factors in the relative success of the summit was the clear understanding on the part of both leaders that a further erosion of US-Chinese relations, particularly economic relations, would be bad for both countries and even worse for the global economy.  The months of tit-for-tat sanctions and other punitive measures have already slowed down global economic growth, and a full-blown failure of the Buenos Aires talks would have rapidly made matters worse.

The outcome of the 2-and-a-half hour meeting and dinner between Trump and Xi was an agreement to negotiate in good faith.  China pledged to buy more American products, including agricultural products as a way of reducing the trade imbalance.  Trump froze the expanded tariffs, scheduled for January 1, 2019.  The handshake between Trump and Xi was similar to previous handshakes with EU's Jean-Claud Juncker and  with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  So far the only full-blown trade deal is the USMCA with Mexico and Canada.  But in the European Union and Japanese cases, the agreement to negotiate in good faith halted escalating tariffs and set a good framework and mindset for negotiating.  Good enough for starters.

Now the hard work begins.  The initial 90 day period for negotiating a substantive trade agreement, eliminating all of the existing tariffs and other trade barriers is really a much shorter period of time.  Both the US and China have holidays that will interrupt the negotiating.  Both sides need time to prepare, and if the talks succeed, both sides will need time to present the outcome and establish a consensus.

The fact that much still needs to be done does not in the least change the assessment that the Trump-Xi meeting was an important step.  Previous US Administrations let China continue its unfair trade practices without a whimper.  There were consequences to that vacating of US leadership.  Trump has made clear that the past business as usual cannot continue.  There is begrudging international consensus that he is right, even though European leaders are very wary of giving Trump much credit.

Both Trump and Xi face extremist elements that don't want any rapprochement between Washington and Beijing, and who believe that conflict is inevitable and their side will emerge victorious.  A failure of the summit in Argentina would have bolstered those factions in both countries, and that would have had very dangerous consequences.

James Jeffrey wants no-fly-zone over Syria… all of Syria - TTG

BEIRUT, LEBANON (3:45 P.M.) – The U.S. envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, said at a press conference on Tuesday that Washington is seeking a no-fly-zone over Syria that resembles the one imposed on Iraq in the 1990’s. “Remember we were present not in northern Iraq but over northern Iraq in Operation Northern Watch for 13 years. That can be a UN force,” he said on Tuesday.

Jeffrey said that the U.S. came up with this idea during a “small group” meeting on Syria with Germany, France, Great Britain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. The U.S. diplomat said that the no-fly-zone could be observed by a joint U.N. force. “That can be a UN force. Under 2254 there is language on a UN-managed and operated ceasefire. That can be partner forces. That can be other countries’ forces,” he said.

Jeffrey then turned his attention to Iran, who he said plays a factor in whether or not the U.S. will continue to be present in Syria. “When we say we’re going to be present not forever in Syria but present until our conditions – enduring defeat of ISIL, as was said earlier, the withdrawal of all Iranian-commanded forces from the entirety of Syria, and an irreversible political process,” he added.  (Al Masdar News)

*****************

This is flat nuts… Marx Brothers in Duck Soup nuts. Hail Freedonia! Jeffrey, Bolton and others, both in the USG and in the Coalition countries, want to attempt to impose a no-fly-zone over the whole of Syria in order to force all Iranians out of Syria and to ensure regime change in Damascus. It would take an all out assault by the entire Coalition of the Clueless to even attempt to suppress the Russian-Syrian integrated air defense and REC network in place in Syria. That’s all out war.

In addition to this foolish idea, Jeffrey calls for “pulling the plug” on the Sochi and Astana talks. In an effort to one up Jeffrey, the former UK ambassador to Syria added this to the madness: 

“The United States regards its presence in Syria as a strategic tool and will maintain it unless Iran withdraws its forces from the country, which is a highly unlikely scenario, former UK Ambassador to Syria Peter Ford told Sputnik. “The United States regards this territory as pawns in a chess game. It will not surrender any of these pawns except in return for, principally, withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria,” Ford said.”

I’d like to see Ford stand in front of a formation of YPG/YPJ fighters and call them pawns in a chess game and strategic tools. He’ll end up buried in a shallow, unmarked grave… or left in the desert for the carrion crows. 

How is this happening? Are the heads of state of the entire Western Coalition so distracted that the neocon rats feel free to run amuck? Perhaps. Macron is up his neck in yellow jackets. May has Brexit hanging over her head. Merkel has a crumbling government. And Trump has a host of alligators nipping at his ass. Somebody needs to set some neocon rat traps.

Trump is far too chummy with MbS and Netanyahu and has his own personal animosity toward Iran. This is probably allowing him to be swayed by Pompeo, Jeffrey and Bolton to acquiesce to this meshuggah Syrian policy. I may not like the man, but I sincerely wish somebody would step up and rescue him from the cabal of neocon Grima Wormtongues that surround him. He is our President. It would do all of us and Trump a world of good.

TTG

A reading list:

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-envoy-wants-no-fly-zone-over-syria-that-resembles-iraqi-1990s-model/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-wants-to-end-astana-conference-on-syria-peace/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-unlikely-to-give-up-syrian-territory-until-iran-withdraws-ex-uk-ambassador/

https://www.mintpressnews.com/pompeos-fingerprints-are-all-over-trumps-new-syria-regime-change-policy/

http://www.voltairenet.org/Implication of creating a modern integrated management of Syrian air space

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 6 DECEMBER 2018 (by Patrick Armstrong)

RUSSIA INC. This report from Awara on Russia's economy is much better than the one I mentioned last time. The authors argue that the Putin Team saw sanctions coming and proofed the economy against them: "Russia now has the world’s most self-sufficient and diversified economy capable of producing anything possibly made in the world. Russia is now for the first time in its history food self-sufficient while simultaneously exporting more food than ever before. With this clout, Russia is prepared to withstand the economic siege, that the US regime is hatching." And it's armed to defend itself. The sanctioners did not, as they thought, "have good intelligence": "The single biggest error was to believe the propaganda lie that the Russian economy was totally dependent on oil and gas. Here they foolishly confused the share of oil and gas in total exports – which was and remains at the level of 60% – with the share of these commodities of the total economy, which in 2013 was 12% (today 9%)". In short, Russia is well-positioned to go it alone. (It doesn't have to though, all the countries on Washington's hitlist are potential collaborators). As I like to put it, Russia has a full-service economy, few others do. I recommend reading the report (testy in parts, but given the mountain of anti-Russia nonsense, that's forgiveable).

TURKSTREAM. Another big step with completion of the offshore section.

WESTERN VALUES™. The next time the US State Department solemnly declares some country's election "undemocratic", just laugh: ballot harvesting in CA and NC.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Finally we learn what Flynn's "crime" was. He may have corroborated Pence's erroneous statement that there had been no contacts with Russian officials and, like so many others, he lobbied for a foreign government. (His real crime, of course, was revealing Obama's and that is why he had to be taken out first.) I hope this begins the end of the Mueller farrago.

NUGGETS FROM THE STUPIDITY MINE. Guardian prints fake story, gets caught, some ex-CIA guy suggests Putindunnit. "They had 17 aircraft, we have 48 missiles - I think we're going to win that one." In the real world, just before they noticed anything, the first Kinzhal would have slammed in at Mach 10.

GEORGIA. Salome Zurabishvili is the new President of Georgia. She, a quondam French diplomat, was Saakashvili's Foreign Minister (salary paid by Paris, BTW) until she had enough of him and quit. Always wondered whether Paris' relatively rational view on the 2008 war owed something to her.

CW ATTACK? WHAT CW ATTACK? "More Than 100 People Wounded In Aleppo Chemical Attack: Syrian Officials". "The West Stays Mum About Aleppo Chemical Attack". Not a hard deduction.

UKRAINE. No one expects that Poroshenko can be re-elected, no matter what fraud he pulls off. And nothing to suggest that his erstwhile supporters in the West want him any more. The simple truth is that post-Maidan Ukraine has been a comprehensive disaster and a new President (Tymoshenko is ahead and she's no friend) will need someone to blame. And who better than Poroshenko? So his choice is to finagle his way out of the election or join Saakashvili in the Formerly Useful Club with an arrest warrant on his head and no money. Hence the stunts: the church robbery and now the Kerch Straits adventure. (I doubt your Local News Outlet told you that Ukrainian military vessels following the Russian rules quietly passed through in September.) He tried to get out of elections by declaring martial law but his opponents forced a limitation: only a month and only in Novorissiya and bordering Transdnestr (where he wouldn't get any votes anyway). So that option has been blocked for the moment. (Another something your LNO outlet hasn't told you: in early November the martial law regulations were amended to allow deportations. Almost as if it was planned, eh?) What's left? Start an attack on the eastern rebels and claim Russia invaded? Plenty of rumours of that from both sides. (CW attack? Alleged Russian buildup.) There are always rumours of an imminent Ukrainian attack and I usually discount them; I am less willing to do so this time because of Poroshenko's desperate situation. If Kiev does attack, it will be another defeat.

MH17. A lawsuit is possible. Not sure what to think: a real trial, with real evidence and real argument would be a good thing; another precooked show not. Are real trials still possible when it's Russia?

TRUMP OPENS A NEW FRONT. "I am certain that, at some time in the future, President Xi and I, together with President Putin of Russia, will start talking about a meaningful halt to what has become a major and uncontrollable Arms Race... ". (Is his INF treaty denunciation a step to getting a US-Russia-China INF? Step one of what Scott Adams calls his persuasion technique?)

Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Felix Sater and the Steele Dossier by Larry Johnson

As I have continued to try to peel the onion that is the layered life of Felix Sater, I discovered an excellent article by Newsweek reporter Bill Powell, Donald Trump Associate Felix Sater Is Linked to the Mob and the CIA—What’s His Role in the Russia Investigation?. One of the surprising revelations from Powell, especially in light of recent events, is that Felix Sater was a childhood friend of Michael Cohen, Trump's lawyer. Let that sink in for a moment. The FBI informant, Felix Sater, was a long time friend of Cohen. This now provides another explanation for how Michael Cohen became to be a part of the Trump orbit. Felix Sater appears to have brokered the introduction (Sater and his company, Bayrock, started working with Trump in 2003 while Cohen did not start working for Trump until 2006).

The most important take away from the Powell piece is that it gives us some critical pieces of evidence for evaluating the Steele Dossier and exposing that document as a fraud. I want to focus on the what Christopher Steele claimed about Trump and a Trump Tower project in Moscow. This information is contained in the very first of the reports submitted by Steele to Fusion GPS. It is dated 20 June 2016.:

Speaking to a trusted compatriot in June 2016 sources A and B, a senior Russian Foreign Ministry figure and a former top level Russian intelligence officer still active inside the Kremlin respectively, the Russian authorities had been cultivating and supporting US Republican presidential candidate, Donald TRUMP for at least 5 years. . . .

In terms of specifics, Source A confided that the Kremlin had been feeding TRUMP and his team valuable intelligence on his opponents, including Democratic presidential candidate Hillary CLINTON, for several years (see more below). . . .

The Kremlin's cultivation operation on TRUMP also had comprised offering him various lucrative real estate development business deals in Russia, especially in  relation  to  the  ongoing  2018 World Cup soccer tournament. How ever, so far, for reasons unknown, TRUMP had not taken up any of these.

The Chinese Break Their Silence

Here is an article written by two Chinese speakers summarizing statements and actions made or done by the Chinese government concerning the results of the Buenos Aires dinner meeting and they seem to be supportive of the picture painted by Trump, Kudlow, Mnuchin and Navarro.  pl

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201812052338/china-breaks-its-silence-on-90-day-us-tariff-truce-update.aspx

Let the Russians or the Chinese fight over Saudi money, not us!

Mister President, in the patois of your native New York City, pull your head out of your ass concerning the Middle East.  The Saudis AND their government are nearly all religious fanatics of the Wahhabi, Sunni variety.  The Al- Saud family run an absolute tyranny justified by their defense  of the fanatic, medievalist brand of Islam that they live by as well as by the support of tribal groups who keep the Al-Saud secure as they always have.

Wake up!  All the world is NOT a market place.  Some things that cannot have dollar signs attached to them are more important than money.  The men who fought in The Bulge, on Okinawa or in the Ia Drang Valley knew that.  Why do you not know that?

Iran is not Nazi Germany any more than Saddam Hussein's Iraq was Nazi Germany.  You have been sold a bill of goods by the lying ignorant imperialist neocons and the Zionists who care nothing except for Israel.  Your son in law, a White House counselor and US government employee, supports the theme music played by today's Israel.  He sold MBS to you?  Well, he betrayed you and the US in seeking to drag us down the road of absolute support of a country that openly stands for religious identity as a basis for first class citizenship and who are currently mad about Saudi Arabia.  Is that really what you stand for?  Or is it simply a matter of the money given to you to run your political efforts by the Zionists, money that you yourself do not have to cough up?

Even Lindsey Graham, a hard core neocon, understands that to excuse MBS' authorization of the murder of a US legal resident, with three US citizen children is not only to give the Saudis a free run at killing Americans who displease them, but also to give a free run to any government who are displeased by the utterances of dissidents.  After all, there might be business to be had in those countries.

Drop the Saudis.  Drop the relationship.  Save yourself before this destroys you.  Forget Mueller.  This is a real threat.  pl

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." by Harlan Easley

I have a different view of the economy than the rose-colored glass narrative now dominating our political discourse

Please refer to this link   https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true

You can see from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that the United States had 13,725,000 manufacturing jobs as of January 2008. Currently we have 12,785,000 manufacturing jobs. So simple math shows we have 1,000,000 less manufacturing jobs than 11 years ago. How does that jive with the narrative that “our economy has never been better?”

It doesn’t. It has never been better for the most wealthy due to their extraordinary gains in the stock market but for the average man/gal the economy is mostly a hard grind of survival.

But it is really worse. Since the above graph is just comparing the last 11 years. Please look at this graph

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

You can see the United States at the height of its domestic manufacturing output almost employed 20,000,000 people in the sector. So we have lost approximately 7,500,000 manufacturing jobs due to outsourcing/free trade.

In 1979, we had close to 20,000,000 manufacturing jobs with a population of 227,000,000. As of today we have 12,750,000 manufacturing jobs with a population of 327,000,000. The United states has added 100,000,000 million more people while our manufacturing base declined 40%. The math just doesn’t add up for a Goldilocks economy.

Neoclassical economists will argue all kinds of nonsense such as a service-based economy. Tell that to the Rust Belt that was hollowed out. Manufacturing jobs support service jobs. It’s that simple. When a community loses their manufacturing base the community declines swiftly. Leading to drug abuse, crime, despair, suicide, public services declining like the water supply in Flint, Michigan. It’s so obvious that I no longer see economist being interviewed by the press arguing the benefits of outsourcing or what they call “Free Trade”.

A New England Brahmin through and through

In the context of Desert Storm I was sent over from the Pentagon to brief him in the Oval Office.

The benevolent grandpa image being propagated in the media on the occasion of his death and emerging apotheosis does not ring true to me.

At the time and ever since, I have thought him a tough, relentless and effective executive.  For whatever reason he was adamant that he was going to put paid to Saddam Hussein.  In public he made a show of mispronouncing the Iraqi's name, saying Saad-em. In private he pronounced the man's name correctly.  The slight was intentional

He asked me what the Iraqis, then occupying Kuwait were likely to do.  He understood that I had spent quite a lot of time in Kuwait and Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War.  I told him that Saddam had been allowed to think that we would not defend Kuwait by the wavering and ambiguous statements made before the Iraqi invasion.

I told him that if he made it clear in an address that occupation of Kuwait meant an all out US military effort to drive them out of the country and that we would not necessarily stop at the border between Iraq and Kuwait they would withdraw because they knew they could not fight the US successfully.

His response was that he did not want them to withdraw because they must be punished for aggression.

I found him to be a perfect representative and heir of the flinty, hard, Puritans who had founded New England.  Texas?  The ah shucks Will Rogers manner was in my opinion a pose.  The influence of his long and prosperous life in Texas was not evident to me.

He was intent on fighting Iraq in Kuwait and probably beyond.  The WW2 torpedo bomber pilot was clearly visible.  This was a formidable man, but one tightly self-controlled.

IMO Ross Perot did the US a great disservice in siphoning off enough votes to enable Clinton's electoral victory.  We would have been much better off with another term for George Bush the Elder.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush

The Story of Hanukkah

The story of the Maccabees is one often recounted in Catholic worship and it has always been a favorite of mine.  pl

-------

"The Festival of Lights' history begins almost two and a half millennia ago, when Antiochus, a Syrian king, ruled Judea. He attempted to assimilate the Jews into Greek culture, commanding them to worship Greek gods while oppressing Jewish culture and religion. One priest in particular, Mattathias, was asked to participate in a ceremony of bowing to an idol and eating the flesh of a pig, both forbidden acts. He refused, but another villager stepped forward and volunteered to do it instead. Angered, Mattathias killed the man and the officer who had asked him to take part in the ceremony. His five sons and other villagers followed suit and killed the other soldiers.

Mattathias' family went into hiding and were soon joined by a large number of Jews who wanted to fight the Greeks. A year later, Mattathias died, but before he passed away, he put his son, Judah Maccabbee, in charge. Led by Judah Maccabee and his brothers, the Jewish people, after a three-year struggle, overthrew their Syrian oppressors.

When they reclaimed Jerusalem's Temple, the Hebrews found it defiled by statues of the Greek gods and other religious artifacts. As part of their campaign of oppression, the Greeks had systematically defiled any Jewish religious item they could find. The Hebrews cleared out the foreign icons and rededicated the temple on the 25th day of Kislev. When the time came to light the N'er Tamid, the Eternal Light of the Temple, the Jews could find only one sanctified jar of oil marked with the seal of the High Priest. It was only enough to last one evening. The lamp was lit with this small jar of oil and, miraculously, stayed lit for eight days, until more oil suitable for the temple was made."

Happy Hanukkah.  pl

Perhaps time is up in Idlib.

That is the old Saraya Difaa' companies insignia.  4th Armored Division, SAA is descended from them.

Reporting in the last two days indicates that 4th Armored Division is re-deploying some units to the western arc of the Idlib pocket outside the supposed "de-militarized" belt agreed on by Russia, Turkey, and Syria.

At the same time units of 5th Corps, SAA and of the Republican Guard have been deploying to the east side of the Idlib Pocket.

HTS has repeatedly violated the terms of the agreement.  Thus far Russia and Syria have refrained from taking definitive and decisive action, but Russia's recent political wounds brought on by incidents in Ukraine  may have decided for Russia the question of whether or not it is worthwhile to humor the US in the hope of better relations with the US.

We will see.  pl

https://southfront.org/syrian-military-deploys-5th-assault-corps-and-republican-guard-troops-east-of-idlib-video/

https://southfront.org/units-of-4th-armored-division-deploy-near-idlib-demilitarized-zone-amid-looming-collapse-of-ceasefire/

https://southfront.org/more-than-15000-terrorist-in-idlib-russia-is-ready-to-assit-syrian-army-to-elimiate-them/

HARPER: SAUDI PATRONS OF KHASHOGGI RALLY BEHIND MBS

Some things in Saudi Arabia don't change.  Jamal Khashoggi is dead, clearly the victim of a premeditated assassination ordered by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  The latest evidence leaked from the CIA to the Wall Street Journal is that MBS sent eleven text messages to the top aide who was running the torture murder of Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.  But MBS remains in charge, and so it is no surprise that two of the former leading patrons of Jamal Khashoggi--Prince Turki bin Faisal and Prince Al Waleed bin Talal--have both come out as full-fledged MBS loyalists, denouncing US allegations that the Crown Prince had any involvement.  Prince Turki issued a statement on November 24, declaring that the CIA should not be trusted or believed in their conclusion that MBS ordered the Khashoggi hit.  "The CIA is not necessarily the highest standard of veracity or accuracy in assessing situations.  The examples of that are multitude."  Speaking at the Beirut Institute, the former head of Saudi Arabia's General Intelligence Directorate (GID) cited the US CIA claims that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction as the best recent example of the CIA getting it all wrong.  "That was the most glaring and inaccurate of wrong assessments, which led to a full-scale war in which thousands were killed.  I don't see why the CIA is not on trial in the United States.  This is my answer to their assessment of who is guilty and who is not and who did what in the consulate in Istanbul."

The Faisal clan, including Prince Turki and his brother Saud bin Faisal, former Foreign Affairs Minister, have real estate holdings and other assets inside the Kingdom.  Maybe that's one of the concerns behind the former Saudi intelligence chief making such preposterous statements to rally behind MBS.  Within the Saudi Royal Family, everything is transactional, and as Col. Lang recently noted, the Saudi Royals believe that they are the true chosen people.  Lying to infidels is part of the outlook.

Prince Turki was Jamal Khashoggi's patron for decades.  Khashoggi was Turki's liaison to Osama bin Laden for many years (Khashoggi and bin Laden joined the Muslim Brotherhood at the same time in the late 1980s, in the midst of the Afghan Mujahideen operations.  Khashoggi was an "imbedded journalist" with bin Laden's fighters, and Khashoggi's reporting put OBL on the map).  When Prince Turki quit as GID head weeks before 9/11, Khashoggi accompanied him to London and then Washington when he was named Saudi ambassador to the Court of St. James and the United States.  When Turki returned home, he resumed control over Al Watan newspaper and made Jamal Khashoggi the editor-in-chief.

While Turki's criticisms of the CIA WMD blunder on Iraq is correct to some extent, making the leap to denounce the myriad evidence of MBS's hand behind the Khashoggi murder is more an act of survival and opportunism than truth.  So long as MBS remains on top, the surface loyalty will remain.  Until it's not.