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21 November 2018

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Imagine

KSA has sent a written repeat of ultimatum to Qatar. Sounds like Bush + Taliban before Afghan invasion. Syria & Qatar seem grapes to be picked before grand invasion of Iran. Qatar's hiring former AG Ashcroft; Turkey based being staffed; Iran sending ships; but not enough. (Options include: false-flag events; state-sponsored terrorists; stand-off missile/air strikes; full air bombing; full ground invasion.)

Could you please elucidate & explore odds of KSA going kinetic in Qatar? How long would it take for fireworks to start, & how serious? Thank you so much.

Thirdeye

The weirdest thing about Katz's offer is that Salman seems dumb enough that he might go for it. Get out the popcorn.....


***

OT, but it seems ISIS just got flanked to the east of the Palmyra-Suknah front and there is a direct threat emerging to their holdings east of Deir Ezzor.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/exclusive-syrian-army-enters-deir-ezzor-province/

turcopolier

Imagine

IMO SA lacks the ability to do more than make futile gestures. "fuel air explosives?" you must be joking. pl

FB Ali

In this stupid imbroglio created by the dumb Saudi princeling, the one most at risk is an apparently equally dumb el Sisi.

I would not bet on his continuation in office for very long.

b

Haaretz reported that clown prince MbS had visited Israel in 2015 and is in regular contact with Israeli officials.
http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-1.797007

That may well be where his crazy ideas are coming from.

Red Cloud

The Saudi population might view Israel as an abomination, but I'm not convinced that the Royal Family views them that way at all. Quite the opposite.

Jewish extremists and Muslim extremists working together? Who woulda thought

turcopolier

Red Cloud

If you believe that crap about a successful wahhabi/Zionist relationship you just don't know much about these people. pl

Charles Michael

Some 2/3 years ago Qatar bougth for 10 billions US weaponnery (French were disappointed not to be choosen on that too). My memory is very clear on one detail: the order included TOW for 200 millions $.
This raised my eyebrows, could only be for djihadists or against KSA ?

Now I don't know how many you can get for 200 millions USD.

Imagine

Thank you, good to hear. A full (significant/ongoing) air attack, similar to Yemen, as opposed to the one-off bombings, such as what Trump did to Syria.

Since Saudi is effectively bombing Yemen while America sits on its hands, what do you see that's to prevent them from doing something similar in Qatar? Please excuse my ignorance.

EEngineer

I always thought that pairing was odd. The only logical explanation I could think of was that each thinks they're secretly using the other to further their own long term goals. In the here and now both apparently must therefor see things more or less unfolding in their favor. The real fun begins when the common path splits and the pair of double crosses can no longer be pretended away. Is that a sign post ahead?

Swami

It's also possible Yisrael Katz knows exactly what he is doing. His overture will be laughed at by people in the know, but he's bucking for Bibi's job post-Bibi and this move can be used to burnish his FP credentials.

FourthAndLong

Maybe so. From Debka on June 22, especially final sentence:

"In dramatic move, Saudi King Salman elevates son to crown prince
In a dramatic but expected gesture, Saudi Arabia's 82-year-old King Salman on Wednesday named his 31-year-old son Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince. The new crown prince's predecessor, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, was removed from all his posts including interior minister, which is responsible for internal security and the war on terror in the country. DEBKAfile: Mohammed bin Salman has accumulated significant influence within the Saudi royal family and in Washington during the past few years. The crown prince was the person who decided that his country would go to war in Yemen, and he is currently leading the campaign against Qatar by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE. The king's son is also actually in charge of his country's foreign affairs, defense and economic development, where he has instituted reforms. Mohammad bin Salman has very close ties with the US, especially with President Donald Trump. He led the preparations for Trump's visit to his country in May and played a main role in arranging the US declaration of support for the Sunni coalition against Iran. The crown prince's strong ties with senior Israeli political, military and intelligence figures are the basis for Trump's plan for building relations between Israel and moderate Arab states."

Damn the torpedoes, I guess. Interesting times if so.

Here you can find Admiral Sandy WInnefeld (USN) addressing the downing of the Syrian SU 22 in Syrian recently in:

U.S. Downing of Syrian Warplane: A “Canary in the Coal Mine”

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/us-downing-syrian-warplane-canary-coal-mine-1090

Not overly concerned., apparently. Was bound to happen sooner or later, he says. Crunch will come after ISIS is crushed or leaves. He says more serious collisions are then almost certainly in the cards.

iowa steve

I wonder if the Israeli intelligence minister has any background in intelligence or is just another nutter MP from some whacko religious party who angled for the position?

I would think, or at least hope, that Israeli intelligence professionals would have some more realistic appraisal of their neighbors' mindset than a run of the mill MP.

Of course as a US citizen I suppose I should have enough to be concerned about with the politicization of our own intelligence community.

Kooshy

IMO, if a high ranking Shia cleric like Grand Ayatollah Sistani carries out a fatwa authorizing resistance to Saudis rule in north KSA, Saudis will have war and experience sever instability on their south and north territories. Such a war is not possible or easy for Saudis to deal with, nor US/EU or any non-Muslim country can send troops to help stabilize.
Ayatollah Sistani is the sole reason for formation of PMU in Iraq, he can do the same in KSA or Bahrain.

Kooshy

Colonel, Once an exiled Iranian general told me, armies loyal to one person or family, are not suitable for war. I assume, KSA military' first task is to preserve, save the royal family, but do the lower rank in KSA' military are willing to risk their lives for this task, as per the Iranian general, that was the problem in Shah' armey.

Kooshy

IMO, Egypt,is a rented country and Sisi has no choice like the clown president in Yemen, what choice he has, if not to continue, where can he go, if he quits, who would be willing to pay for this clown' security alone.

Babak Makkinejad

I for one would love to see such an invitation; the sooner, the better.
I wonder about the succesor regime; chaos or Ikhwan.

Kooshy

I think more likely tribal chaos, and separationist wars between Shia and Sunni tribes in north and south. This may as well be the reason such a fatwa
has not t been issued yet. IMO KSA and Egypt are living on borrowed time. From writings of Mr Jafarian, I know most of KSA Shia in north, are fallowers of GA Sistani.

anonymous

great news and a sure sign that peace is on the horizon.a regional accord between sunni nations and Israel is something I have supported since 2006.a pipeline direct from s.Arabia to Jordan and then to either Gaza or Haifa is the best possible route to supply southern europe.there is no way it can be blocked by the shite bloc.that and the direct rail link will be a win win

http://www.reuters.com/article/israel-transportation-jordan-idUSL5N1HD3CX

Yeah, Right

I don't quite understand the audience that Katz is addressing.

Not the Saudis, that much is certain.

Nor the notables who attend the Herzliya conference, who all would understand this simple premise: if the Saudis are offering official recognition as the "prize" for Israel accepting the Arab Initiative (and they are) then they certainly aren't going to be interested in gifting that to the likes of Netanyahu.

So who is he expecting to con with that nonsense?

Is he addressing this to his Israeli domestic constituency? Would they even care what the Saudis did or didn't do?

Is he attempting to ferment trouble for the House of Saud by pretending that this offer might just be acceptable to Salman?

Or is there a simpler explanation: the "Israeli intelligence minister" is a dimwit?

turcopolier

Yeah, Right

Trump is the audience. If you are referring to the old Kin Abdullah (SA) initiative, the whole thing was a fraud. Abdullah had the habit of telling guests that if Israel recognized ALL the Arab states and the PLA then reciprocal recognition would take place. Friedman of the NY Times was told that and was dumb enough to believe it. pl

David Habakkuk

FourthAndLong,

So – are you then as still as confident as you were earlier that the possibility of catastrophic escalation over Syria can be totally discounted?

I was not reassured to discover that a former Vice Chairman of the JCS ‘wouldn’t believe anything that the Russians say at any time.’

A military, or civilian leadership, which knows what it is doing doesn’t make general statements like this. It gets competent diplomats and intelligence people to do the work, and find out whether, in a given instance, one should or should not believe what a foreign government is saying.

Unless you do this, you have zilch means of either anticipating either the initiatives other states will take, or how they will respond to your actions.

A superpower playing ‘blind man’s buff’ is not a reassuring sight.

BraveNewWorld

Turmoil including terrorist attacks have hit the tourism industry and by extension the economy in Egypt hard. The IMF has told Egypt to pound sand. They didn't sell those Islands to the KSA out of love for the Saudis.

But then again almost every thing and every one in the ME from journalists to politicians to whole countries are bought and sold by the GCC crew in particular the KSA and Qatar. That buying and selling isn't just restricted to the Middle East as most people here know.

Qatars great crime was running up the price of buying people at a time when oil prices are low.

Thomas

"Since Saudi is effectively bombing Yemen while America sits on its hands, what do you see that's to prevent them from doing something similar in Qatar?"

Retaliation.

Rawdawgbuffalo

Qatar: Is it about Trump, Israel or Nascent Influence?

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