Sic Semper Tyrannis

What goes around comes around: Democrats first changed the filibuster rule for some federal judges

 

By Robert Willmann

While the U.S. Supreme Court issued some decisions and opinions of note this term for discussion, once again the subject was "overtaken by events", as the State Department is fond of saying.  On Wednesday, 27 June 2018, Judge Anthony Kennedy went to the White House to tell president Trump and then announced by a letter that he would be retiring--

http://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/press/Letter_to_the_President_June27.pdf

Judge Kennedy was appointed by president Ronald Reagan and took the oath of office on 18 February 1988.  His letter makes clear that his position as an associate judge will end on 31 July of this year, but that he will take "senior status" under Title 28, United States Code, section 371(b).  This means that he will retain the office but retire from regular active service [1].  Federal judges with senior status continue to participate in some cases, and Judge Kennedy will likely do so until his successor is confirmed and sworn in.

The unexpected news jumped to the forefront, and the voluble Chris Matthews on the MSNBC television network almost had a cow shortly after the announcement, he was so distraught that another judge would be appointed with the present makeup of the U.S. Senate and executive branch.  But that is the least of it.

Blowback.  What goes around comes around. 

Barack Obama, while president, got together with the Democratic majority leader of the Senate, Harry Reid (now retired), and the "filibuster rule" in the senate -- technically, the "cloture rule" -- was changed for confirmation of executive branch nominees and of federal judges such that it would apply only to Supreme Court judges and not for other federal judge nominees.  They did it by muscling through an interpretation of a senate rule, calling it a new "precedent", without actually changing the rules.  This allowed Obama to get nominations for federal district judges (the trial court) and circuit judges (courts of appeals) confirmed by a simple majority vote of 51 senators, or 50 senators plus the vice-president, or a simple majority of the members present, provided there is a quorum.  The concept of "cloture" has taken the place of the traditional filibuster.  A vote on cloture is a vote to end unlimited debate when a nomination or item is on the floor for consideration, and requires 60 votes to pass, so that an up-or-down vote can then be taken on the item or nomination being considered.  This paper from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) explains the Obama change of 2013--

http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc272065/m1/1/high_res_d/R43331_2013Dec06.pdf

Rather than leaving well enough alone, the Democrats shot themselves in the other foot in 2017 after Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court place held by Judge Antonin Scalia until he died in February 2016 [2].

 

Is history rhyming, or not?

 

"It may have been inexcusable, but it was a sign of the times. The incident occurred weeks before a more notorious confrontation in which South Carolina Rep. Preston Brooks beat Sen. Charles Sumner of Massachusetts senseless on the Senate floor after Sumner called Southerners flocking to support slaveholders in Kansas the “drunken spew and vomit of an uneasy civilization.” Anti-immigrant sentiment, manifested in a secret society whose members pledged to say they “know nothing” about its activities, was rampant.

In the wake of the shooting, the Northern press reported that Herbert was an “Alabama-born bluebood and an avid secessionist” who had been expelled from the University of Alabama after he stabbed a fellow student, according to Guy Gugliotta, a former Washington Post reporter and author of a book on pre-Civil War Washington and construction of the U.S. Capitol. That a hotheaded, highborn Southerner killed a working man confirmed Northern fears about the intemperate behavior of Southern defenders of slavery, according to Gugliotta."  Washpost

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That is a picture of the Old Willard Hotel, the one that stood on 14th Street in 1856. 

BTW the Dan Sickles mentioned as having killed Barton Key is the same Sickles who as a major general of volunteers lost a leg at Gettysburg to an artillery round shot.  while the surgeon sawed the remnants of his leg off in a barn, he calmy asked someone to light him a cigar.  If I recall, Sickles defense in the Key murder trial was the first successful use of a temporary insanity defense in the US.

We just don't have many people of this "quality" today in the US.  There is Maxine Waters but now she is backing away from her earlier incitement of violence.  More typical are the mostly Anglo women (500 or so) who occupied the cavernous atrium of the senate Hart office building yesterday with an immense Calder sculpture and mobile hanging over them.

They marched in led by Susan Sarandon and friends and stood around trying to chant things in Spanish like "Donde estan los hijos?"  A .lot of them seemed to have had some difficulty with that, evidently never having chatted with the help in Spanish.  After a while the capitol police grew weary of them and herded them away to buses whilst they (the women) sang hymns (in English).

Things will have to get worse if we are to reach 1856 levels of performance.  pl  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2018/06/23/a-hungry-congressman-didnt-get-the-breakfast-he-ordered-so-he-shot-the-waiter/?utm_term=.d5b8a0b1c866

"Inside the tent peeing out" - LBJ

 

"National security adviser John Bolton once said Russia's election interference was "truly an act of war" against the US, and that a policy based on trusting Russia was "doomed to failure."

• Bolton's tune changed completely after he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.
• He also said President Donald Trump and Putin will likely discuss Trump's recent calls for Russia to be readmitted to the G7 alliance.
• When confronted by a reporter about his shift on Russia, Bolton said he would not address the discrepancy."  Insider

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Is a puzzlement?  Not really.  It seems that John Boy would rather have a job than not.  And, then, there is the sheer exaltation of having been acknowledged as grand by The Devils themselves.

Maybe the prez should send fightin' Jack Keane on a trip like this to provide him with an opportunity for an attitude adjustment.  pl 

http://www.thisisinsider.com/john-bolton-putin-meeting-russia-policy-shift-2018-6

What is John Bolton's role in Trump's ME drama?

(editorial)

On a gestalt basis it seems to me from all the bits and pieces of information and rumor that DJT is attempting "The Deal of the Century!" (an episode or two of his soon to be award winning series, "The Greatest President.")

Russian cooperation in this is clearly needed.  Trump is blessedly lacking in ideological fervor.  His Deplorable base is also a bit short on ideology being focused on wages, prices, taxes and other everyday living issues.  Their patriotism expresses itself in devotion to the flag and the anthem and a willingness to serve in the armed forces, something increasingly absent in the "resistance."

Trump has a free hand from his base to negotiate peaceful coexistence with Russia, but he nevertheless must successfully deal with the passion of the neocon wing of the Borg (foreign policy establishment).  They still swoon at the thought of the ongoing renewal of the Cold War.

John Bolton is an arch-neocon, a neocon's neocon.  Trump has sent him to Moscow to arrange an agenda, date and location for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.  IMO this is a stroke of genius.  What it does is put an enemy of good US-Russia relations in charge of arranging the schedule for discussions to improve US-Russia relations.  In LBJ's vulgarism, Bolton is going to be inside the tent peeing out rather than outside peeing in.  Having arranged the meeting, he will be personally invested in its success.  How sweet that is!

Trumps is IMO trying for a grand ME bargain to be achieved with Russian help:

1.  Peace in Syria in the context of abandonment of regime change.  Trump the pragmatist recognizes that the R+6 forces have won the civil war and, therefore he wishes to accept the sunk costs of previous American ineptitude in Syria and to walk away.  US Embassy Amman has signaled to the FSA rebels in SW Syria that they should not expect the US to defend them.  This is a traditional American stab in the back for guerrilla allies but the warning indicates to me that some group in the US Government (probably the CIA) has enough conscience to want to give warning.  As soon as that warning was issued the rate of surrenders to the SAA rose.

2.  The US has thus made it clear that the SAA and Russian forces in Syria have a free hand in the SW and it seems that Israeli air and missile attacks are unlikely against the SW offensive.  This has been insured through a Russian mandate that Hizbullah and IRGC dominated Shia militias stay out of the fight in Deraa and Quneitra Provinces.

3. The Egyptians have been talking to Hamas about their willingness to enter into a hudna (religiously sanctioned truce) with Israel.  Hamas has frequently offered this before.  Such truces are renewable and are often for 10 years.  Kushner's team thinks it has attained Natanyahu's support for this.  The deal would supposedly include; a Gaza-Egyptian industrial zone in the area of Raffa, an airport, a seaport.  In return Hamas would be expected to police the truce from their side of the border.  People on SST who have deep access in Israel doubt the sincerity of apparent Israeli assent, but there is little doubt I think that DJT considers this part of the Grand Bargain he is attempting to forge.  

Nowhere in any of this is anything concerning Iran and I assume that regime change remains the policy.  Nor is there anything about Saudi Arabia and the UAE's mercenary manned war in Yemen.  Ah, well, pilgrims, everything in its time.  pl  

HARPER: A FLURRY OF MIDEAST DIPLOMACY TO BE WATCHED

If Presidents Trump and Putin do meet sometime in July in Europe (a July 15 meeting in Austria is under negotiation), one certain topic for discussion and negotiation will be Syria and the ongoing threat of a war between Israel and Iran.  While I am told that there is no agreement at present between the US and Russia, the elements of a deal are clearly being pursued.  Consider the following developments over the past several days:  Over the weekend of 23-24 June, Russian planes began providing air support to Syrian Arab Army forces moving to take back territory south of Damascus.  Russia has been pressing Iran and Hezbollah to stay out of southern Syria, to avert continuing Israeli air strikes there.  Israel, which has been providing critical military and medical support to some Syrian rebel factions, including jihadists from Nusra under the idea that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," will not accept an Iranian or Hezbollah presence in the vicinity of the Golan Heights.  In the past month, Putin has hosted Netanyahu, Israel's Defense Minister Liberman, President Bashar Assad and a number of Iranian officials in Russia, pressing the need to avoid an Iran versus Israel escalation in Syria.

The United States, over the same weekend of 23-24 June, wrote to Syrian rebels from the Free Syrian Army in the south of Syria, informing them not to expect any American military support as they face off against the SAA.  American forces, under the existing deconfliction agreements with Russia, will stay out of way as SAA forces and Russian fighter planes move to take back all of Syria south of Damascus.

Jordan's King Abdullah II was in Washington this week, with two agenda items to discuss with Trump officials:  The Syria war and the Trump Administration's secret peace plan for Israel and Palestine.  Apparently few Administration officials--President Trump, Jared Kushner, Jason Greenblatt and David Friedman--are the only ones privy to the details of the plan, which is supposed to be unveiled in the coming weeks.  Kushner and Greenblatt just returned from a Middle East trip in which they visited with all key players except the Palestinians.

While the details remain secret, there are some developments that clearly hint at the broad outlines of the latest American scheme.  Egypt has been brokering talks between Hamas and Israel over a long-term ceasfire.  Elements of the deal include a return of Israeli prisoners being held in Gaza, a halt in attacks on Israel from Gaza, a lifting of part of the blockade of Gaza and the eventual construction of an airport and seaport.  There is talk of a Gaza/Sinai industrial complex in El-Arish in the Sinai desert, to be staffed by Palestinian workers from Gaza.  Egypt has extended the opening of the Rafah crossing through to 25 August.  The Egyptian government is clearly active in this effort.  Under Egyptian pressure, the Palestinian Authority has agreed to resume paying salaries for government officials in Gaza, and reconciliation talks are underway again between Fatah and Hamas.

Based on some comments by Kushner during his travels, it appears that the Trump "deal of the century" is long on economic incentives and short on the creation of a viable and contiguous Palestinian state.   In an interview with the Palestinian newspaper al-Quds, Kushner was quoted: "At the end of the day, I believe that Palestinian people are less invested in the politicians' talking points than they are in seeing how a deal will give them and their future generations new opportunities, more and better paying jobs, and prospects for a better life."

Lobelog asserts that part of the Trump plan involves convincing the Palestinians to accept Abu Dis as their capital rather than East Jerusalem, leaving the Old City in Israeli hands.  Saudi Arabia would be given some role in administering the Temple Mount, which is something that Jordan would strongly oppose, given that a basic point in the Israel-Jordan peace treaty is that the Hashemites retain status as protectors of the Temple Mount.  And Israel would retain control over the Jordan River Valley.

If these reports are accurate--something I cannot confirm, other than those publicly confirmed pieces--we are on the cusp of a new diplomacy, which is far from an actual resolution.  Any equitable deal will be far different than the fragments that have appeared so far in public.  But given President Trump's obsession with "deals of the century" and the failure of every previous effort at peacemaking along the Eastern Mediterranean, we are in for something unpredictable.  Israeli Prime Minister is facing hell on the home front, with wife Sarah's indictment and a string of indictments against himself pending later this year.  And by now, Netanyahu has figured out that he doesn't really have a friend in the White House that he can trust.

Exposing the Russian Hacking Fraud by Publius Tacitus

You can be forgiven if you are confused about whether or not the emails from the DNC were taken by Russian hackers or lifted by an insider who in turn sold the electronic files to Wikileaks or was the work of someone else. While we do not have any clear evidence about the identity of the culprit or culprits, there are some undisputed facts that call into serious question that the DNC email debacle was a Russian Government Intel operation. This article is my attempt to explode this conventional wisdom. I may not have all the answers, but I certainly can point you to critical facts that blow gaping holes in this narrative. I will put it simply—the charge that the Russian Government hacked the DNC is bullshit.

Julian Assange’s 12 June 2016 accouncement that Wikileaks would publish a new batch of emails related to Hillary Clinton attracted little attention at the time. Assange provided no clues about the provenance of the documents and many concluded he was talking about the archive of emails from the Clinton server that had been obtained by Judicial Watch via a Freedom of Information Act request. It was only in late July 2016, after Wikileaks published the DNC emails (July 22^nd), that the media concluded (see the New York Times) that Assange’s 12 June remarks were about the DNC archive.

Although this narrative is widely accepted as a fact and embraced by folks across the political spectrum, it is a story erected on unfounded assertions.

It was Ellen Nakashima’s 14 June Washington Post article, that marked the start of the public narrative that the Russians hacked the DNC and stole sensitive emails and documents as part of a broader strategy to defeat Hillary Clinton and help elect Donald Trump:

Syria: A Major Turn of Events In the South

by Willy B

Whoever's making US policy in Syria, it's certainly not Nikki Haley. Despite her rabid statement of Friday, in which she declared that "Russia will ultimately bear responsibility for any further escalations in Syria," Russian war planes joined the battle for Daraa overnight, last night, after having been "conspicuously absent" as Reuters put it earlier on Saturday. At the same time, the US government informed the southern rebel groups via a letter seen by Reuters that it could expect no US military intervention on their behalf. This may have been the motivation for more units of the FSA to defect to the side of the Syrian army in order to fight against Hayat Tahrir al Sham, the latest incarnation of Al Qaeda in Syria. Were the Russian and US actions coordinated? Though the evidence is only circumstantial, it would appear that, despite Haley's threats, the Trump Administration is actually in support of the Syrian strategy to pressure any jihadi elements that don't change sides to surrender and evacuate, as was done in Douma in April. No one on either the U.S. or Russian sides has said anything to such effect, of course.  There hasn't even been any acknowledgement on the Russian side, as of yet, that Russian warplanes are carrying out air strikes in support of Syrian forces in Daraa.

The time line of events over the past 24 hours or so is generally as follows:

Al Masdar first broke the news that Russian aircraft had joined the campaign at 12:20 AM local time last night. A military source said that Russian aircraft had launched some 20 air strikes across northeastern Daraa starting at about 11 PM local time but that the majority of them hit the town of Busra Al-Harir, which practically divides the jihadi-held area in half. Within 40 minutes the number of air strikes was up to 30. About the same time, Reuters reported that while Syrian government forces had so far made heavy use of artillery and rockets in the current assault, Russian warplanes had not been deployed until now. "Throwing in Russia's full military weight in the campaign to regain southern Syria will weaken the ability of mainstream Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel groups to withstand relentless bombing on civilian areas that forced their compatriots in other areas to submit to surrender deals," the news agency further noted.

The Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement at mid-day Moscow time today reporting that FSA formations in eleven settlements had joined with the Syrian army to fight against ISIS and Jabhat al Nusra. "By the end of June 23 these settlements were fully under control of the legitimate Syrian authorities," the Center said. The statement comes just a day after the Syrian army and the FSA jointly repelled an attack by over a thousand of al-Nusra Front terrorists in the Syrian southern de-escalation zone, Sputnik adds. At the same time, Reuters reported that the United States has told Syrian rebel factions they should not expect military support to help them resist a Russian-backed government offensive to regain opposition-held parts of Syria bordering Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. A copy of a message sent by Washington to heads of Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups, which was seen by Reuters, said the U.S. government wanted to make clear that "you should not base your decisions on the assumption or expectation of a military intervention by us." The U.S. message also told the rebels, according to Reuters, that it was left to them alone to take the right decision on how to face the Syrian army's military campaign based on what they saw was best for themselves and their people.

It's quite possible, it seems to me, that what we'll be seeing over the next several days, is the implementation of the same reconciliation strategy that we saw in Eastern Ghouta, Aleppo and other areas where some so-called rebel fighters will lay down their arms and settle their status with the government, others will be evacuated to Idlib and those that refuse, most likely ISIS, will be destroyed. Iran's Fars News Agency reported yesterday that some opposition ("terrorist") groups are demanding exactly that. Fars cites local sources reporting that the army's rapid advances in Dara'a province caused the terrorist groups to lay down their arms in the villages and towns of al-Lajah region (which according to the Al Masdar reports cited above was a major objective of the Syrian assault) and agree to the army's terms and conditions, calling for implementation of the reconciliation plan.

 

Will the "Red Hen" survive?

The "Red Hen" is a 26 seat restaurant in Lexington, Virginia in the Shenandoah Valley.  The town is the seat of Rockbridge County, an intensely conservative area while the town which is completely surrounded by the county is very liberal.  the town has 7200 inhabitants, and is a very pretty little place that is the location of Washington and Lee University and Virginia Military Institute, my alma mater.

Sarah Sanders, the president's press secretary was in Lexington for some reason on Friday with seven of her relatives and chose to go to this restaurant for dinner.  The eight of them would have been a major piece of trade in what passes for "fine dining" in the area.  I have never eaten there but remember that when I was a cadet at VMI it was a junk shop and that later it was a BBQ take-out place before ascending to its present grandeur.

The restaurant is expensive for the local dining scene.  Half the population of the town are students at the two colleges.  They are not going to be eating much at the Red Hen unless mom and dad have come to town to visit.  Faculty at the two schools are not paid so much that they are likely to eat there very often. 

Soo, the custom for this little eatery must be the constant stream of alumni, family and friends who flow through scenic and historic Lexington in a pilgrimage to the colleges and to such features as the home of Lt Gen Thomas (Stonewall) Jackson, CSA which is across the street from the Red Hen as well as the graves of Jackson and Robert E. Lee which are a few streets away.

I will predict that the liberal leaning element among the visitors to the town will continue to patronize the restaurant but as the news spreads there will be a drop in patrons among "all others."

Sanders and her party had not broken any furniture.  They were not cursing drunkenly.  They were nevertheless asked to leave on political grounds by the woman owner of the restaurant.  pl 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/06/23/sarah-sanders-booted-so-restaurant-could-uphold-certain-standards-co-owner-says-report.html

https://redhenlex.com/menu/

 

Battle for Hodeidah - Part 2

 

"A military operation of the Saudi-UAE-led coalition and its proxies to capture the Yemeni port city of al-Hudaydah from the Houthis is crumbling.

The coalition’s forces have failed to establish full control of the al-Hudaydah airport south of the port city itself. They have also not been able to outflank the city from the eastern direction. The problems in this advance are mostly linked to the problems of the coalition-led forces’ supply lines."  SF

*****

"On June 21, the Houthis carried out another attack on the coalition’s forces at their supply line in the western Yemeni coast. Houthi forces attacked positions of the coalition in the areas of Mdjelis and Makhliki cutting off a force of the coalition involved in the battle for al-Hudaydah from the rest of the coalition-occupied area.

According to pro-Houthi sources, at least 7 armoured vehicles were destroyed and about 30 fighters of the coalition-led forces were killed or injured in this attack.

If Yemeni forces are able to keep their gains in the coastal area, the coalition-led forces will not able to develop an advance in the al-Hudaydah countryside. Furthermore, the force involved in the operation may be eliminated.

Meanwhile, the Houthis increased their cross-border attacks against Saudi forces. They have carried out a series of attacks on positions in the Saudi provinces of Jizan and Najran."  SF

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These ragged assed Houthi tribesmen are men their grandfathers would have been proud to acknowledge as their own.  With a minimum of equipment they are fighting off the Saudi hired coalition in a way that reminds of Lt Col Owen Thursday in "Fort Apache" when he asked at which staff college Cochise had studied.

These qat chewing, Scotch guzzling little hill men are among the great martial peoples of the world.  They live at war all their short lives.  They fight each other over traditional goods; honor, water and land.  When they are not doing that they fight the government, whatever government there be at any time.  I used to visit the tribes from which they come in the territory between Saadah and Sanaa.  They observed a careful code of hospitality and were cautiously welcoming.

Long ago I asked if Saudi Arabia in its present form would survive this war.  I ask it again.  pl 

https://southfront.org/battle-for-yemens-al-hudaydah-on-june-22-2018-map-video/

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/09/will-saudi-arabia-survive-the-yemen-war-first-published-.html

Crowd Funding for "The Wall?"

It appears that no immigration law has a chance this year. IMO additional monies are needed by the federal government for enhancement of barriers on the Mexican border. How about crowd sourcing?  My initial thought would be an institution organized in law to collect money for this purpose and no other and to donate the money to DHS.   A Paypal account perhaps for the collection channel?  pl

Open Thread 22 June 2018

pl

Sara Natanyahu charged ...

" The wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was charged with fraud and breach of trust Thursday over the alleged misuse of state funds at the couple's official residence."  CNN

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She, but not he?

Well, pilgrims, perhaps she can flee to America and appeal for asylum from persecution.  Applying the 95% "rule" or Pelosi's vision of immediate release into the US, she should have a good chance.

If Bibi flees with her, they would not be separated under the new EO.

Trump is a sucker for the Israelis.  He would be unlikely to object.  pl  

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/21/middleeast/sara-netanyahu-indicted-intl/index.html

Borg on the Border......... by Fred

Good News Democrats! Trump is really just a liberal in the mold of that great NY liberal FDR. Just look at what FDR did in 1941 and 1942:

"President Franklin Delano Roosevelt declared that the day of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941, would live in infamy. In February 1942, just two months after Pearl Harbor, President Roosevelt as commander-in-chief, issued Executive Order 9066, which had the effect of relocating all persons of Japanese ancestry, both citizens and aliens, inland, outside of the Pacific military zone. "........." Roosevelt's order affected 117,000 people of Japanese descent, two-thirds of whom were native-born citizens of the United States."

Ending conscription in Israel?

 

"According to the bill's explanatory notes, over a third of those required by law to enlist already do not do so, compared with a quarter in 1990. Between 2013 and 2017, the number of soldiers discharged as unsuited to military service has grown 15%. At the same time, combat units are almost full to capacity, and supply exceeds demand in non-combat units.

Five years ago, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said, “This era of massive regular forces no longer exists. We have to take advantage of human resources and technological developments. … [We need] a small regular force equipped, fast, flexible, armored, lethal and ready.”

Raz explained to Al-Monitor this week that according to his model, fewer people would enlist but they would serve longer periods, meaning the soldiers would be older — even parents — more professional and more level-headed. At the same time, straight-A high school students prevented from serving in combat units because of medical issues could make good use of their talents and contribute to the country in the civil sector. "  al monitor

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 The IDF ground army has become one of the most over-rated armies in the world and even in the Middle East.  This is a militia army that has only a small number of combat units serving at any time in which the country is not at war or preparing for war.  Conscription provides the manpower to maintain a large number of reserve units manned by a lot of men who are ill trained and of an age that makes them unsuitable for anything but population control in the occupied Palestinian territories.

The author of the is article is a well know Israeli leftist peace monger.  I salute him.  He points out the ever increasing unwillingness of the Gucci Generation of present Israeli youth to serve.  They are voting with their feet in rejection of conscripted military service.  Those who choose to serve now are increasingly from extreme right wing elements in Israel.  They are people willing to shoot Palestinian civilian demonstrators at Gaza.  This is not soldiers' work.  This is the kind of work done by uniformed hoodlums indulging their hatred of tribal enemies.

Nothing that Pompaio and Halley can say will hide that.  pl 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/israel-idf-mossi-raz-yehuda-glick-enlistment-ultra-orthodox.html?utm_campaign=20180620&utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Daily%20Newsletter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2014/07/the-idf-ground.html

Syria and Turkey Notes - 19 June 2018

 

(editorial)

The US Senate has passed into law a restriction against selling US made equipment to Turkey so long as Turkey persists in its purchase of the Russian S400 SAM system.  The Turkish response as voiced by their Prime Minister and Foreign Minister is basically to tell us to go to hell (paraphrasing).  The Turkish PM has also stated that after their success in jawboning the US over Manbij they intend to move on toward the east to Kobane, Hasakah, Qamishli and parts east in Iraq.   These pronouncements on their part have the flavor of statements from the Ottoman Sultan's throne.   Does anyone seriously doubt that Turkey's intention is to give Syria and Iraq a "haircut" by effectively and probably by annexation eventually moving the border south some distance.  This kind of thing is common in the Islamic World where state boundaries are generally thought of as tentative.  A NATO ally?  What a joke.  I suppose that we cling to NATO as a tool in our crusade against Russia.  The Turks know that and are using the knowledge.

Heather Nauert and Pompeo el-Magnifico have now warned Syria and Russia against an offensive in the SW of SYRIA.  They cite the de-escalation agreement that thr Russians negotiated as though it was a cease-fire protecting the jihadis and FSA rebels who the Israelis treasure so much as a buffer to the east of the forts on the Occupied Syrian Golan Heights (Hauran).  The threats posed by Nauert and Pompeus Maximus are clear.  They are saying that if the SAA attacks to recover its territory the US will attack them in defense of Israel.

At the same time CNN has been told that the air attacks on Syrian and Iraqi forces SE of Al-Bukamal were conducted by Israel itself and not the "Coalition."  Pilgrims, these targets are in the far SE corner of Syria where the main road crosses into Iraq and then reaches Iran by various roads in Iraq.  the Israelis are clearly terrified of the logistic and trade implications of that road.  pl 

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-pm-says-kobane-hasakah-qamishli-are-next-targets-after-manbij/

https://southfront.org/us-senate-to-ban-weapon-supplies-to-turkey-over-its-s-400-deal-with-russia-turkey-responds/

ttps://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-blocking-f-35-sale-wont-stop-turkey-from-acquiring-s-400-systems-pm/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-state-dept-reveals-details-of-pompeo-lavrov-conversation-on-syria/

 https://southfront.org/june-18-strike-on-syrian-forces-near-al-bukamal-was-carried-out-by-israel-us-official/

 

Baaak Baaak barack! Baaak Baaak barack! The Chickens are coming, the Chickens are coming - home to Roost. by Fred

Looks like the big guy is gett'n ready to help America

Given all the nuggets the IG Report is serving up there will be plenty to go around. With all the work he's about to do he'll be worn out worse than Peter and Lisa and Tashina before the week is out. I sure hope the left's sacred chickens favorite agents of investigative integrity aren't destined for the same fate as the sacred chickens of Publius Claudius Pulcher. I can hear you now: "Fred I get that try at humor, but as the old saying goes "Where's the beef"."

Laura Bush and Michael Hayden, No Fixing Stupid by Publius Tacitus

If you ever needed a reminder of what a disgrace George W Bush was as President then thank Laura Bush, his airhead of a wife, for providing the exclamation point about being clueless. But wait. She was not alone. Joining her as a certified cretin was former NSA Chief and CIA Director Michael Hayden. And the issue? Separating illegal immigrant children from their law breaking parents.

Here is a snippet from the ignorant op-ed put out by Laura Bush:

Our government should not be in the business of warehousing children in converted box stores or making plans to place them in tent cities in the desert outside of El Paso. These images are eerily reminiscent of the Japanese American internment camps of World War II, now considered to have been one of the most shameful episodes in U.S. history. We also know that this treatment inflicts trauma; interned Japanese have been two times as likely to suffer cardiovascular disease or die prematurely than those who were not interned.

What? Comparing illegal immigrants who are being treated in accordance with the law to Japanese American citizens who were deprived illegally of their constitutional rights. Are you kidding me? Is Laura Bush really this stupid and uninformed? Perhaps. What is certain is that she is a demagogue who does not give a rat's ass about the children. It was her own dolt of a  husband that signed the law into effect that President Trump is enforcing. If it is so heartless and so wrong then maybe she should take a baseball bat into her bedroom and give George W a good whack upside the head.

We can excuse Laura for not being terribly smart about such things. But what excuse does Michael Hayden have? He tweeted out the following:

The Battle of Hodeidah - part 1

 

"On June 17 and 18, the Saudi-led coalition and its proxies, backed up by French special operations forces, continued their military operation in order to capture the port city of al-Hudayadh in western Yemen from the Houthis and their allies.

The goal of forces of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and their proxies is to outflank the Houthi-held port city from the eastern flank and to isolate it from the rest of the Houthi-held area.

The coalition’s operation started on June 13 from an attempt to capture the al-Hudaydah airport, which is located south of the city. By June 18, the coalition’s forces had entered the airport and launched an attempt to enter al-Hudaydah city itself. At the same time, a group of coalition-led forces advanced on the Al-Matahen roundabout aiming to capture the eastern flank of the port city.

These efforts are actively supported by strikes of the coalition’s airpower and artillery. Coalition-led forces also have a significant advantage in military equipment over the Houthis. However, there is a problem.

The coalition’s supply lines are overstretched over the western Yemeni coast. The Houthis use this to carry out attacks on reinforcements and supply convoys of the coalition heading to al-Hudaydah."  SF

----------

We haven't heard from Patrick Bahzad about Yemen.  I suppose the reason is obvious.

Long ago when I was the military attaché in North Yemen I visited the airport under discussion when it was under construction by a British company.  My predecessor had known the site manager well and we dropped by to see him at his mobilization camp on the site.   The frustrations involved in trying to build anything in Yemen wore the man down and he died a couple of months later of a heart attack brought on by exhaustion.  I had arranged a USAF air ambulance evacuation to Britain but he died before they arrived in Britain.  I don't know who paid for the airfield but it was clearly in excess of the needs of a small city like Hodeidah.  During my tour of duty as DATT in Sanaa the first modern pier was built out at the end of that long peninsula at Hodeidah.  I handled several US Navy ship visits at Hodeidah.  These were Newport County class LSTs.  These were big, modern ships and when they came to visit they performed maintenance gratis on Yemeni "Navy" patrol boats the Yemenis had acquired from some European donor but could not keep running.  The US ships had all the machine shops on board needed to manufacture parts.  I had proposed to the Yemenis earlier that they establish a partnership with the US Coast Guard but they would not accept the idea that USCG was something other than a few cops in motor boats.  The commander of their "navy" consulted Sanaa and said that it would be beneath their dignity for their "navy" to be advised by a police force..  That pretty much says it all about Yemen then and now.  Ah, I can hear the bleeding hearts as they will whine about the poor wretches in places like Yemen.  Well, it is true.  They are poor wretches, but they are largely responsible for their plight.

Having said that I think the Saudi led, US supported war against Yemen is despicable.  I hope Mattis the Terrible reads that.

Hodeidah, its port and airfield are probably decisive objectives.  Loss of them will be crippling to the Houthis and to the part of the Yemen Army allied with the Houthis.  There are a few other small ports  like Mocha but they would be inadequate to the foreign support needed for the anti-Saudi cause.  The tribal guerrilla war in the mountains would continue but the game would largely be "up." 

https://southfront.org/battle-for-yemens-al-hudaydah-on-june-17-18-2018-videos-maps-photos/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Coast_Guard

HARPER: HAPPY ANNIVERSARY GLASS STEAGALL--WE MISS YOU, COME BACK

Today, June 16, is the 85th anniversary of the signing of the Banking Act of 1933, otherwise known as the Glass Steagall Act.  When President Franklin Roosevelt signed Glass Steagall into law, he set off a 66 year epoch of relatively sound banking, during which time there was no big financial crash, as occurred in 1929 and again, after Glass Steagall's repeal, in 2008.  Under Glass Steagall, commercial depository banks were totally separated from investment banks.  Later, insurance companies were also cut off from any ties to commercial banks.  During the same wave of early New Deal legislation, the Federal Depositors Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was established, insuring commercial bank deposits and successfully deterring bank panics.

The repeal of Glass Steagall was a long-standing priority for Wall Street.  In 1984, JP Morgan Bank launched an internal study on how to repeal Glass Steagall.  That study, "Rethinking Glass Steagall," proposed a war of attrition against the principle of complete bank separation.  The war was launched in 1987, with the appointment of Alan Greenspan as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  Greenspan had been a partner at JP Morgan and had chaired the study group which devised the war plan against Glass Steagall.  As Fed Chairman, Greenspan used his discretionary powers to increase the amount that commercial banks to lend to investment institutions.  By the mid-1990s, enforcement of Glass Steagall had eroded.  Citibank at that point moved to purchase both an investment bank and an insurance company, in violation of Glass Steagall restrictions.  That set the clock going to a two-year deadline.  Citi had to either divest of the purchases or Glass Steagall had to be repealed.  

Wall Street poured $300 million into a lobbying campaign to kill Glass Steagall.  In 1999, both Houses of Congress passed the Gramm Leach Bliley bill, killing Glass Steagall.   For the first time in 66 years, commercial banks could merge with investment banks and insurance companies.  It was only a matter of time before the investment banking divisions devoured the commercial bank deposits and directed them into a speculative binge beyond all previous financial bubbles.  When Lehman Brothers went under in 2008, the system crashedEnemies of Glass Steagall argued that Lehman Brothers was not a commercial bank and so the repeal of Glass Steagall had no causal relationship with the financial crisis.  Not so.  It was the repeal of Glass Steagall that allowed commercial banks to pour money into the gambling casino--including into Lehman BrothersAn article today in The Guardian by US correspondent Ganesh Sitaraman noted that there is renewed interest in Glass Steagall today--across the political spectrum.  He noted that progressive Democrats have been pushing reinstating of Glass Steagall for years.  It was included in the Republican Party platform in 2016.  That is just the tip of the iceberg.  There are bills to reinstate Glass Steagall in both Houses of Congress and they are bipartisan bills.  Even candidate Donald Trump called for the reinstatement of Glass Steagall, before he was gagged by Wall Street cabinet officials like Steven Mnuchin and Gary CohenThe IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, the Federal Reserve and Bloomberg News are all warning that we are headed for another major financial "correction" sometime soon.  They point to the consequences of a decade of post-2008 quantitative easing and zero interest rates, which led to a 63 percent jump in corporate bonds.  The median bond rating today is BBB- just one rung above junk bond status, and S&P Global estimates that more than 25 percent of all corporations can be categorized as "zombies" because the amount they must spend servicing their corporate debt is greater than their cash flow.

There is a growing consensus that we are again headed for a big financial shock.  Wouldn't it be wise to move to insulate the commercial banking sector from another fiasco before the next crisis?  Are the White House and Congress ready to act or are we heading blindly to a replay of 2008?  

Trump's next Syria move - "A War Game."

(editorial analysis)

It seems evident that the SAA will clean up the rebel held area in Sweida east of the M-5 highway.  When that is done they will line up north of Daraa City facing the Israeli occupied Syrian Golan Heights.  The deployment should be 20 miles or so wide.  They will then attack toward the Heights to clear rebels from SW Syria.  This will be "all in," an attack with "horse, foot and guns" as they said in olden times.  IMO they will make good progress since most of the really hard asses in the SAA have been assembled for the task. 

DJT will then hear the siren song of his family, the Zionist lobby, Bibi's government and various cats and dogs insisting that US Air be committed against this "threat against Israel."  The nuttier people in Israel have been trying to claim that the attacking force will have in it a lot of Iranians and Hizbullahis in SAA uniform.  That suggestion fell apart when the IDF G-2 himself stated that it was untrue.  Even Liberman the Mad has admitted it is not true.  How inconvenient.  Well, the White Helmets will probably come forward to say that the IDF was mistaken.

DJT is making peacemaker noises.  By his actions we will judge him.  pl

DOJ IG, Horowitz, Fails to Admit What He Proves by Publius Tacitus

The final product of the Department of Justice Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, is a study in schizophrenia. On the one hand Horowitz reports that there was no EVIDENCE that political bias directly affected the investigation:

There were clearly tensions and disagreements in a number of important areas between Midyear agents and prosecutors. However, we did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that improper considerations, including political bias, directly affected the specific investigative decisions we reviewed in Chapter Five, or that the justifications offered for these decisions were pretextual.

Nonetheless, these messages cast a cloud over the FBI’s handling of the Midyear investigation and the investigation’s credibility. But our review did not find evidence to connect the political views expressed in these messages to the specific investigative decisions that we reviewed; rather, consistent with the analytic approach described above, we found that these specific decisions were the result of discretionary judgments made during the course of an investigation by the Midyear agents and prosecutors and that these judgment calls were not unreasonable. (see p. iii)

But then there is the multiple examples of bias exhibited by key FBI investigators throughout the report. The anti-Trump prejudice exhibited by Peter Strzok is undeniable: 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 14 JUNE 2018 (Patrick Armstrong)

PUTIN PHONEIN. Russian, English; again I remind you that you don't have to depend on "reliable" reports, you can see for yourself what he says. Putin said (with numbers to prove it) that he thought the economy was "moving in the absolutely right direction" and had "reached a trajectory of sustainable economic growth" albeit "modest". He reiterated that only discussion, negotiations and taking nations' interests into account can succeed in world affairs; he stressed again Russia was willing to talk but would defend its interests. Exactly what he has been saying for years. He couldn't resist pointing out that Washington's allies were finding out for themselves what happens when Washington does whatever it wants; as he had warned in Munich years ago would happen, Washington was "spreading its national jurisdiction to other countries" and Europe and Canada are now tasting the results. For the rest, it was, as usual, mostly domestic concerns with the customary "Batyushka, my roof is leaking" calls. I suppose it is a useful gauge of feeling in the country: several million messages are sent and filed by category so it's a better way of taking the national pulse than polls that depend on pre-selected questions. It's probably orchestrated to some degree but amuse yourself imagining your local leader doing it.

WORLD CUP. Starts today. Will be in 11 cities in European Russia. How will the Lügenpresse avoid reporting that all went well? As you recall, it never had to correct all the brown water, dead dog, doorknob and toilet lies at Sochi because the Ukraine coup occupied subsequent reporting space and the cognitive dissonance that I expected never happened. But I don't see how they can avoid it this time.

WESTERN VALUES™. "'Precision' airstrikes kill civilians. In Raqqa we saw the devastation for ourselves" (Guardian) "US-led strikes on Raqqa may amount to war crimes, Amnesty says" (CNN) "US, Britain and France inflicted worst destruction 'in decades' killing civilians in Isis-held city of Raqqa, report says" (Independent) "Syria: Raqqa in ruins and civilians devastated after US-led 'war of annihilation' Amnesty Report. "Meticulous" says British commander. Photos.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. The IG report is finally out. A conspiracy involving, inter alia, the US, British, Baltic and Ukrainian organs of state security to prevent Trump being elected and then, when he was, to bring him down. "We'll stop it." Serious stuff that will reverberate for a long time and lead investigators in many directions. I reiterate: there was no Trump-Russia collusion of any sort and there was no Russian government interference in the election of any sort. If Moscow had wanted to support a candidate it would have been Clinton: it had already bought her once and had plenty of kompromat on her. Mueller's indictment of Concord et al is bunkum as is proven by his desperate manoeuvres to avoid having to show his "evidence".

PROBLEMS WITH THE NARRATIVE. No conclusive evidence to blame Russia for MH17 says Malaysia Transport Minister; no evidence that Russia poisoned Skripals says German int source. What does Malaysia know? It's been kept out of the inquiry. As to the Skripals, well the G(7-1) says "no plausible alternative explanation". (Once you've dug the hole, I guess you have to plausibly live in it.)

KOREA. A start at dual suspension. Maybe Moscow contributed a bit: Lavrov met Kim on the 31st.

TODAY'S LAUGH. (But not actually very funny). "Today the Atlantic Council launched DisinfoPortal.org, an interactive online guide to track the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns abroad". It says it's "reliable" several times, so I guess it must be.

SIGNS OF CHANGE? Bulgarian PM suggests returning to Turkstream. EU official says "Russia-bashing" must stop. New Italian government wants Russia sanctions ended and Russia into G(7±1). Trump wants Russia into it too. Nonetheless the G(7-1) communique continues to condemn Russia for its "failure to demonstrate complete implementation of its commitments in the Minsk Agreements." (I actually asked the Canadian Minister to tell me what the "commitments" were – the word "Russia" doesn't even appear in the agreement – but got no answer.) But Lexus and Vovan – they strike again!! – get the OSCE Secretary General to admit it's Kiev that blocking it – more seeing what's in plain sight.

UKRAINE. Freedom House notices what has been in plain sight for years: "Far-right extremism represents a threat to the democratic development of Ukrainian society." Does this signify anything? Who knows? Propagandists don't often change their line. But still: both Amnesty and Freedom House committing crimethink! Maybe something is changing.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

The Turks are playing us ...

 

"Turkey has offered Russia to jointly produce advanced S-500 air defense systems, President Recep Tayyip said on June 13 in an interview with broadcaster 24 TV.

“Russia has given us a loan for the S-400 on very reasonable terms. In the second and third stages, we will proceed to joint production. Maybe we will co-produce S-500,” Erdogan said also making critical remarks towards the NATO allies over their unwillingness to sell arms to Turkey or jointly produce them.

“I have contacted President Putin with a proposal about the joint production of the S-500.”

However, Erdogan provided no info about a Russian response on the S-500 joint production proposal.

In December 2017, Ankara officially signed a $2.5 billion agreement with Moscow on the delivery of S-400 air defense systems. Turkey will be the first NATO member country to acquire the system. According to data from the Turkish media, the country will buy two batteries of S-400 missiles which will be manned by Turkish military personnel."  SF

*****

"Turkey’s Chief of General Staff General Hulusi Akar and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Curtis Scaparotti agreed via telephone on Wednesday to force the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) to leave Manbij by July. "  SF

------------

BOHICA!  BOHICA!  BOHICA! 

Sultan Tayyip and his janissaries have enjoyed "playing" the US like the proverbial fiddle.  This is a common occurrence in the ME where the naivete of many Americans encourages it.  I watched Ali Abdullah Salih tell his ambassador in Moscow on the telephone to use Soviet grants of credits to South Yemen for weapons to extract more of the same for North Yemen.  He had just been briefed on the PDRY grants by a State Department briefer come to Sanaa to wean him from Soviet dependency.  It was only when the conversation ended that he remembered that I understood his chat.  I was the only American present who had enough Arabic to do so.  He smiled and asked when Antar (me) could go hunting again.

If the Kurds do not now make peace with Damascus, they are fools.  pl  

 https://southfront.org/erdogan-offers-russia-to-jointly-produce-advanced-s-500-air-defense-systems/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-turkey-agree-to-force-ypg-leave-manbij-in-july/

The military mind? (editorial comment)

Even at this late point in my life I find it surprising to watch retired officers boast on TV that their military minds are impervious to the "vision thing" and that if they have not seen and touched something the possibility of change and a different future does not exist for them.

We are not all like that, but it seems that many are.  It is easy to see why the past American tradition has been that elected officials must control policy and that the military does not dictate grand strategy or national policy.  pl

Rob Reiner's Shock and Awe--Not So Much by Publius Tacitus

Last night (Monday the 11th) at the Newseum in Washington, DC, Rob Reiner screened his new film, Shock and Awe. Hard to believe that 15 years have passed since George W. Bush launched an unnecessary war in Iraq. During the prelude to that war, Knight Ridder was a lone voice in the media herd that refused to swallow the propaganda elixir brewed and served by the White House, the Pentagon and the CIA. Specifically, the movie is supposed to tell the story of Editor John Wolcott and his reporters, Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay, who spent almost two years as pariahs in the journalism community because they reported that there were no facts to back up the claim that Iraq had WMDs. Rob Reiner's new movie (it will hit theaters next month), attempts to tell this story. Sadly, he fails.

I was tempted to title this review, SHOCKINGLY AWFUL. But that would be unfair. The movie is not dreadful. Just really disappointing. A more accurate title would be, BANAL and MEDIOCRE. Although the movie is stocked with a talented cast--Woody Harrelson, James Marsden, Tommy Lee Jones and Rob Reiner--and the actors do a fine job given the material they have to work with, the story is fragmented and superficial. The problem starts with the script. It lacks identity and focus. 

The movie opens with a paraplegic black Army private wheeling himself into a Congressional hearing where he then testifies before a stereotypical congressional committee. It is a few years since Bush went to war in Iraq and the soldier, rather than read his testimony, decides to  ask the committee members a blunt question--why the hell did we go to war in Iraq. Cue the flashback.

It is now September 11, 2001 and we are introduced to reporters Jonathan Landay and Warren Strobel. The Al Qaeda attack on America lit the fuse on an 18 month time bomb that ultimately exploded in Iraq. We still do not know why George W Bush and his band of malevolent neocons decided that Saddam Hussein should be taken down. Maybe some really believed that Saddam and Bin Laden were in cahoots. Perhaps some knew that was just a pretext for getting rid of Saddam as a stepping stone to creating a path for democracy in the Levant. Reiner's movie does not answer this question. 

Leaving the past behind ...

 

"President Trump and Kim Jong Un signed a document after a historic day of meetings in Singapore on Tuesday and while the contents weren't immediately disclosed, it was clear that the two men had clicked. "We had a terrific day and we learned a lot about each other and our countries," Trump said, per the Guardian, describing the North Korean leader as a "very talented man" who "loves his country very much." Trump said he and "Chairman Kim" had both been "very honored" to sign a "very important" and "pretty comprehensive" agreement, the BBC reports. Trump shook the North Korean leader's hand and predicted: "We'll meet many times." Kim said that they had "decided to leave the past behind" and thanked Trump for "making this meeting happen."

Asked whether he would invite Kim to the White House, Trump said, "Absolutely, I will." He said details of the agreement they had signed would be disclosed later on. After they spoke to the press, the two leaders departed in separate motorcades. Kim is expected to leave Singapore within hours, while Trump is expected to speak to the press again. Trump spoke privately with Kim for around 40 minutes Tuesday before a meeting that included aides and a working lunch that included beef short ribs, sweet and sour crispy pork, and braised codfish, the AP reports. They were joined at the lunch by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, White House chief of staff John Kelly, and national security adviser John Bolton, among others."  Newser 

-------------

Bolton must be "turning and burning."  Good!  Will Kim survive this at home?  We will see.  Will the North Koreans actually follow through on this?  We will see.  Will the US follow through on this?  We will see.   Who will be the poor bastard who will be the first McDonald's manager in Pyongyang?  Will he end his days in the Gulag?  What will Nancy Pelosi say about this?  Where was Kim's dishy sister during the Singapore expedition?  She is the head of propaganda in NOKO.  pl

http://www.newser.com/story/260506/kim-we-decided-to-leave-the-past-behind.html

For the summit, legal documents about the Korean War period are hard to find - By Robert Willmann

Even though the circus has come to town in Singapore this week with performers Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un and various supporting actors, it can distract from the serious business of Korea after World War 2.  Since governments present themselves through documents claiming to authorize their creation, and more papers are said to establish laws, departments, organizations, decrees, and orders that people are expected to follow, the documents about Korea after Japan officially lost it as a colony following the Second World War are important.  However, they are hard to find [1].

The U.S. Government Printing Office, now called the publishing office, no longer prints treaties and agreements, and from what I have been able to find out, does not publish them in digital form.  I think the reason is that Congress did not give the printing/publishing office money to do so.  The State Department is now supposed to publish them, but only more recent ones, starting in 1996; some of them amend earlier treaties.  The Library of Congress is trying to get all treaties also published in digital form, but is still working on the period from 1950-1984 and has not yet finished [2].

Although not emphasized to the public in the past, Congress did not declare war to start the U.S. involvement in the Korean War (there was a United Nations resolution), and no treaty was signed to conclude it.  As a technical legal matter, the Korean War has not ended.  There was an "agreement concerning a military armistice in Korea, with annex," and a "temporary agreement supplementary to the armistice agreement in Korea," signed at Panmunjom on 27 July 1953.

Citations to treaties and agreements regarding Korea are usually done in the form of:  [number] UST [number], and TIAS [number].  UST refers to the "United States Treaties and Other International Agreements", which is a bound volume made up of the individual documents.  TIAS refers to "Texts of International Agreements" and "Treaties and Other International Acts Series", and is the individual treaty or agreement published as a separate item, which would then became part of the bound volume, the UST.

Here is a list of documents from my brief research I think are relevant to the time frame of the Korean conflict.

1.  Agreement concerning interim military and security matters during the transitional period.  Signed at Seoul August 24, 1948. Entered into force August 24, 1948. 62 Stat. 3817; TIAS 1918; 9 Bevans 477; 79 UNTS 57.

http://www.loc.gov/law/help/us-treaties/bevans/b-korea-ust000009-0477.pdf

2.  Mutual defense assistance agreement.  Signed at Seoul January 26, 1950. Entered into force January 26, 1950. 1 UST 137; TIAS 2019; 80 UNTS 205.

 

"Betting the Farm" in SW Syria

 

The Syrian military is preparing to launch their largest offensive of the war next week, as they finalize their plans to kickoff this imperative operation in the provinces of Dara’a and Al-Quneitra.

According to a military source in Damascus, the government offensive will be led by two major forces in the Syrian Arab Army: the Tiger Forces and 4th Division. 

The Tiger Forces are tasked with retaking the southern districts of Dara’a city, while the 4th Division will be split between the Al-Quneitra and Dara’a governorates.

Joining these two divisions will be a large number of soldiers and paramilitary troops that were previously deployed in the Damascus, Al-Sweida, Homs, and Hama governorates.

Below is a list of units participating in this battle:

Syrian Arab Army :

• 4th Division
  • 39th Brigade
  • 40th Brigade
  • 42nd Brigade (Ghiath Forces)
• 5th Armored Division
  • 15th Brigade
• 7th Division
• 9th Division
  • Shock Forces
• 15th Special Forces Division
• 90th Brigade
• Republican Guard
  • 105th Brigade
  • 106th Brigade
• Palestine Liberation Army (Palestinian wing of the Syrian Army)
• Tiger Forces

Paramilitaries:

• National Defense Forces (NDF)
  • Liwaa Suqour Al-Quneitra
  • Fouj Al-Joulan
  • East Qalamoun Division
  • Damascus Division
  • Homs Division
  • Dara’a Division
• Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP)
• Liwaa Al-Quds (Palestinian-Syrian faction from Aleppo)
• Raqqa tribal fighters             AMN

--------------

"Betting the Farm" is an old military saying concerning a situation in which one side in a major war decides to commit so much of its forces to an action that if failure and decimation occurs then the side suffering that will be permanently crippled.

The coming offensive in Daraa and Quneitra governorates (provinces) appears to have all the hallmarks of such an action.  Most of the first rate heavy units of the SAA will be committed  to this effort.  Presumably the SAG intends to crush the rebellion in the SW and drive its line of control up to within sight of the Israeli forts on the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. 

What will Israel's reaction to this be?  How effective will Syrian air defenses be against a reaction?  What will Russia's reaction be to Israeli attacks on its ally's forces?  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/complete-list-of-syrian-forces-taking-part-in-southern-syria-offensive/

John F. Kennedy and the Question of World Peace

by Willy B

Source: John F. Kennedy Library

I don't normally write about historical anniversaries. They're usually well covered by a plethora of writers much better than I. But today's date marks an event which intersects a project I began working several months ago on the history of nuclear weapons and related policies. Fifty five years ago, today, June 10, President John F. Kennedy delivered a commencement address at American University in Washington, D.C. on what he considered to be the most important matter of his time, indeed for all time: world peace. I read through it a couple of months ago and found it to be well worth remembering, not only for its particular content, but for the direction that Kennedy indicated in those remarks of where he wanted the world to go in.

To begin with, Kennedy clearly rejected the kind of "peace" that the geopoliticians have been taking us towards in recent years. "What kind of peace do I mean? What kind of peace do we seek?" he asked rhetorically. "Not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war. Not a peace of the grave or the security of the slave. I'm talking about genuine peace – the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living – the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their children – not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women – not merely in our time but peace for all time."

Remember, this was about eight months after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Kennedy was very acutely aware of the danger that nuclear weapons represented. Weapons of such power made no sense, he said, and the accumulation of weapons that could never be used except to keep the peace couldn't possibly be the only way, much less the most efficient way, to keep the peace. "I speak of peace, therefore, as the necessary rational end of rational men," he said.

Kennedy called on his audience to not only look at the leadership of the then-Soviet Union, but also to look inward at our own attitudes "as individuals and as a nation – for our attitudes are as essential as theirs." He rejected the notion that peace was impossible. "By defining our goal more clearly – by making is seem more manageable and less remote – we can help all peoples to see it, to draw hope from it, and to move irresistibly towards it."

Secondly, Kennedy rejected demonization of the Soviet Union. While he found Communism repugnant, he said "we can still hail the Russian people for their many achievements – in science and space, in economic and industrial growth, in culture and in acts of courage." He also made a number of points which are even more relevant today. "Almost unique among the major world powers we have never been at war with each other," he said. "And no nation in the history of battle ever suffered more than the Soviet Union suffered in the course of the Second World War. At least 20 million lost their lives. Countless millions of homes and farms were burned or sacked. A third of the nation's territory, including nearly two-thirds of its industrial base, was turned into a wasteland – a loss equivalent to the devastation of this country east of Chicago."

Today, Kennedy went on, it is the US and the Soviet Union that are in the most danger of devastation. "All we have built, all we have worked for, would be destroyed in the first 24 hours," he said. "So, let us not be blind to our differences," Kennedy advised, "but let us also direct attention to our common interests and to the means by which these differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children's future. And we are all mortal."

The remainder of Kennedy's remarks dealt with the arms control efforts of his administration which culminated in his declaration that the US would no longer conduct nuclear tests in the atmosphere. "Such a declaration is no substitute for a formal binding treaty – but I hope it will help us achieve one."

Glenn Seaborg, who was chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission at the time, reports in his 1981 book "Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Test Ban," that the genesis of the speech came from a discussion that Kennedy had with the journalist Norman Cousins. Cousins had been engaged in a series of candid discussions with Khrushchev and had related the content of these discussions to the White House. "I advocated making a breathtaking offer to the Russians and the President said he would think about it..." Cousins recalled.

 

Is Putin Is Freeing Europe, One Country At A Time? by J

 

Marine Le Pen says Putin is liberating Europe, and she's right.  Le Pen, says she sees signs of what in her opinion is the beginning of Europe’s liberation.  Soaring popularity of right-of-center forces in several European nations, coupled with Putin’s meeting with Austrian Chancellor Kurz during his visit to Vienna.  "The world today is making a choice different from that made over the past 30 years. It is going to be a genuine peaceful and democratic revolution, a turn away from savage globalization, universal free exchange and immigration. It will be a turn towards protection," she stated. "Italy, Hungary, Austria - we are witnesses to the beginning of the liberation of Europe!" In her opinion, in Europe there should be no place for supra-national entities whose decisions would outweigh those made by national governments. 

Five-Star party supporters gather for a rally in Piazza del Popolo two days before the March 4 elections in downtown Rome.  Italian voters delivered a shock to Europe not felt since the UK’s Brexit vote in June 2016. Two populist parties came out on top: The NATO/EU-skeptic Five-Star Movement took home over 32 percent, of the vote while the right-wing Lega party garnered a surprising 17 percent. The fact that both parties have called for better relations with Russia led immediately to the seemingly inevitable accusation that it was the Kremlin, not Italian voters, who was ultimately responsible for the outcome.  Two populist parties won big time in Italy, favoring Putin. 

What's Putin's secret?

 

 

Putin turned towards the most unlikely of sources, an American think tank based in Oakland, the Independent Institute—whose founding member of their Board of Advisors, is Lawrence Kudlow (who now serves as Director of the National Economic Council under President Trump), had detailed how the tax cut policies of Democratic Party President John Kennedy, and Republican Party President Ronald Reagan saved the American economy during some of its most dangerous economic times, that Mr. Kudlow described about in his 2016 book entitled “JFK and the Reagan Revolution: A Secret History of American Prosperity”.

Fees are Driving Expat Familes Out Of Saudi. by J

 

A new fee for expats’ dependents in Saudi Arabia will be paid in advance at the time of residency visa issuance from July 1 this year. 

According to the Saudi Gazette, the fee would be paid annually when a residence visa is sent for renewal, or a new visa issued.  It will start at SAR100 ($26.66) for each individual per month before increasing to SAR200 ($53.32) for each dependent from July 2018, SAR300 ($79.98) in 2019 and SAR400 ($106.64) in 2020.  The fees go to the State Treasury.

Private sector companies will also still have to pay the SAR200 a month levy for each foreign worker at the end of the current year.  This will double to SAR400 a month per expat worker in January 2018 and then increase to SAR600 ($159.97) in 2019 and SAR800 ($213.29) in 2020.

The fee increases come as the Saudi Kingdom seeks to diversify their economy away from oil as a result of the hard hit received from price decreases that began in the summer of 2014.  The Saudi Government has promised to provide SAR200bn ($53bn) of incentives to the private sector over the next four years to aid in this effort,  however there are concerns that investments will be impacted by increasing costs for businesses.

Global Investment House cited the fees and decreases to subsidies on electricity, water and fuel would increase input costs for corporates.  

Expats fear that the Saudi Government will tax remittances next. 

Now to the 64 dollar question:

Will expats have to pay for the privilege of cleaning their bathrooms? 

J.

 

I stopped watching ...

 

"In Kitchen Confidential he wrote candidly about falling into a depression that was fanned by his substance abuse. “I could no longer bear even to pick up the phone; I’d just listen to the answering machine, afraid or unwilling to pick up, the plaintive entreaties of the caller an annoyance,” he wrote. “I was in hiding, in a deep, dark hole, and it was dawning on me — as I cracked my oysters, and opened clams, and spooned cocktail sauce into ramekins — that it was time, really time, to try to climb out.”

It was in the 80s that Bourdain said he looked in the mirror and decided he “wanted to live.”

“It wasn't that I had any discipline or strength necessarily,” he told trade publication Nation’s Restaurant News in a 2000 interview. “It was just that I'd decided that, among my friends and the people I'd come up with, I would survive and go on and live, and in order to do that, in order to do anything, there was absolutely no question that I would have to leave [drugs] behind me.”"  Buzzfeed

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 We stopped watching Bourdain about a year ago.  He was always entertaining and informative but the pain and desolation in his heart became so evident that I, for one, could not bear it any longer. 

His account of his teen years as a kitchen assistant in a seaside resort was particularly hard to watch.  I worked in such places during high school summers in coastal Maine as; bus boy, dish washer, baker's assistant, soda fountain ice cream guy, fry cook, short order cook and breakfast cook.  The drugs, sex and rock and roll that he described in one program saturated the atmosphere with their seasonal people blend of; professional restaurant workers, local kids, tourists and college girls on the loose for the summer.  That atmosphere ate him alive and I do not think he ever recovered from it.  A profound sense of ennui settled over him that he never shook off.  He may well have had a genetic disposition toward clinical depression but the cocaine, heroin and massive amounts of alcohol did not make it any better.

We still have recordings of some of his best shows.  One was in Lyons and two were in Quebec where he was entertained by two zany Qubecois restaurateurs.  Their feast, cooked up in  a  nice little building sitting on a frozen lake, was memorable.  There were a lot of courses but I particularly liked the "bit" in which they grilled foie gras on the flat top of a wood burning stove.

For me, his saddest show was focused on a trip to what had once been a laird's hunting lodge in the Scottish Highlands.  It is now a place of amusement for fat-assed City of London bankers and the like.  There he was walked up into the hills, loaned an expensive rifle and pointed at a majestic stag.  He dutifully shot the beast and was escorted down to the corpse where his keepers painted his face with the animal's arterial blood in a ceremony that once had an animistic meaning but now has none.  I shot a lot of deer in my youth but was always just a pot hunter going to the woods to stay with my friends and uncles.  I have always been strongly affected by the logo from the film "The Deerhunter," in which the wings on the Army parachute badge are replaced with the antlers of a stag.   Bourdain's face smeared with the elk's blood brought that to mind.  pl 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Bourdain

https://www.buzzfeed.com/krystieyandoli/anthony-bourdain-depression-addiction-mental-illness-chef?utm_term=.ybjLqEAVN#.fwvzXpWKP

A master stroke at Charlevoix

 

President Trump has tied the international policy world (the Borg) in knots with his aggressive threats of retaliatory tariffs in response to long standing restrictions in international free trade.  The Borg and the countries that have profited since WW2 from American generosity in terms of trade understandably have reacted with anger at the thought of a leveling of the field of commerce.  The "never Trump" counter-revolutionary press howls in rage only to be scorned by him.

The G-7 met at Charlevoix, PQ intent on demonstrating their collective mastery of the situation.  Somehow their outrage was not visible.

At a parting press conference today Trump made it clear that he will settle for nothing but what he considers fair trade and if that is not to be had then there will be no be trade with those countries.  This is obviously a negotiating tactic.

Trump's real objective was revealed at Charlevoix in the same presser.  What he really wants is a TOTAL elimination of tariffs, non tariff barriers to trade and subsidies supporting unfair prices within and among the G-7 countries.  He also wants Russia re-admitted to the group arguing that economics rather than politics should govern such a decision.  His intention is to eventually extend his Three Eliminations in trade policy to many more countries.

This move has cut the guts out of the outrage abroad in the Borg. 

I have written that Trump is producing, directing and acting in a reality show entitled "The Greatest President."  IMO this incident at Charlevoix will be the subject of one of the better episodes.  pl

WE’RE NOT GOING TO BE SUCK THIS YEAR - TTG

The Caps, my beloved Caps and their crazy 8 captain, Alex Ovechkin won the Lord Stanley Cup in Las Vegas tonight. Slava Sasha! During an interview before the season started, Alex was asked how the team would perform this year. Alex’s response was the prophetic, “we’re not going to be suck this year.” 

Na pravda, Ovi, you are not suck this year.

I won’t bore you further with my exuberance. You can catch all the news at the other blog I read religiously, RMNB or Russian Machine Never Breaks, another literary gem coined by Ovi.

https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Oh! By the way, Alex Ovechkin and his wife, Nastya Ovechkina, are expecting their first child.

TTG 

Yemen as exemplar - Re-published 7 June 2018

"Yemeni Shi'ite Muslim Houthi fighters backed by government forces drove the local wing of al Qaeda from one of its last strongholds in central Yemen on Friday in intense fighting that killed at least 35 people, tribal sources said.

The Houthis' Ansarullah movement has become the main political force in Western-allied Yemen since capturing Sanaa in September and then pushing south and west into the Sunni Muslim heartland of al-Bayda province, where Ansar al-Sharia has allied itself with local tribes. 

Yemen has been in turmoil since 2011, to the dismay of neighboring Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, and of the Western powers who want to prevent instability in the Arabian peninsula threatening their crude supplies or giving al Qaeda a base for overseas attacks. 

Tribal sources said the Houthis had met stiff resistance as they pushed towards the village of Khobza district using Katuysha rockets and heavy artillery. 

They said at least 25 Houthis and 10 Ansar al-Sharia and tribal fighters had died in the fighting, which began on Thursday afternoon. Ansar al-Sharia and its allies withdrew to Yakla district, on the border with Maarib province."  Reuters

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Full disclosure - I was once DEFATT in Yemen at Sanaa.

 A primer on some aspects of Yemen:

- Zeidi (fiver) Shia  Muslims are so conservative (restrained) religiously that they are sometimes thought of as a fifth Sunni mathab.  Their theology and general view of the religious sciences follow the mu'tazilite tradition.  They are quite distinct from and have little allegiance to the 12er Shia in Iran, Lebanon and other scattered places.

- From a few miles south of Sanaa to the northern reaches of the country where it "borders" Saudi Arabia the country is almost altogether Zeidi Shia in population.  Those people are tough little mountaineers, who are extremely tribal in their lives and who are generally aligned in two major tribal confederations, the Baqil and the Hashid.  These tribal confederations are the real power in Yemen north of Sanaa.  they possess a lot of military equipment that was mainly stolen from the government when officers who are members of these confederations defected back to their true allegiance taking their gear and often soldiers with them.

- The former president, Ali Abdullah Salih, was a Zeidi tribesman of the Sanhan minor tribe of the Hashid confederation.

 - From Sanaa south, Yemen is primarily inhabited by much less tribal villagers who are Sunni and usually of the shafa'i mathab.  These folks are the recruiting ground for AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia and similar Sunni salafi jihadi groups for whom the Zaidi tribesmen of the north are just another kind of murtadoon (heretics) to be fought to the death.

- Further complicating the mozaic of groups that is Yemen is the lingering effect of British possession of the Aden crown colony for many years.  In the course of that period a lot of Yemenis from Aden attended such schools as the London School of Economics where they became  both atheistical  and left wing politically.  Such people are still on the scene in the cities and continue to be active in the government of a united Yemen.

- The Houthis are a Zeidi Shia reformist movement that draws solely on the Zeidi population of the north.  It does not have and cannot have any friendly relations with the Sunni jihadi groups of the south.  The movement started in the al-houthi clan and has since spread to the two major confederations of Zeidi tribesmen.  The Houthis as a cult prefer not to fight if it can be avoided and captured the capital, Sanaa, with very little violence.  Salih, a Zeidi tribesman understandably sides with the Houthis as opposed to the Sunni, left oriented people now running the government of the United Yemen.

- A government of national unity has been formed among; the Houthis and their army, the national army and the nationalist/left dominated functionaries now in office in Sanaa.  This coalition is actively and successfully fighting the Sunni jihadis.

The US government response to all this is to denounce the Houthis and Salih as interfering with stability and the integrity of the Yemeni state.  This reflects the ignorant, obsessive, insistence of the American foreign policy establishment that "one size fits all" in terms of the norms of governance across the world with the implication that the US embassies in such countries as Yemen are actually pro-consular outposts from which the ambassador/governor guides and controls the province/country in which he/she is located.  When this attitude, derived from notions of "exceptionalism," is accompanied by the IR/Poly Sci paradigm of foreign relations now so evident in the US government, the result is the noxious self-defeating  environment in which US decisions are now made.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/14/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN0IY1Q120141114

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_al-Sharia_(Yemen)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthis

 

Translation of the Houthi logo:

"God is Great

Death to America

Death to Israel

Rejection by God of the Jews

Victory for Islam."

 

You should not take the words in this too seriously.  This is standard populist cant in the Muslim World.  pl

 

No friends but the mountains… or BOHICA - TTG

A long sought thaw in US-Turkish relations appears within reach following yesterday's talks in Washington between Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Answering reporters’ questions in the Turkish city of Antalya today, an upbeat Cavusoglu elaborated on an agreement reached between the NATO allies on Manbij, a mainly Arab town in northern Syria. Manbij has been an abiding source of friction because of Kurdish influence over its administration. Cavusoglu termed the deal “an opportunity to put our damaged relations back on track.”

Cavusoglu said provisions of the plan would likely be fulfilled in less than six months but that the real test of the United States’ commitment to it rested in its implementation. The terms include a full withdrawal of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from the city and assurances they will be shorn of any weapons provided to them by the US-led coalition for the fight against the Islamic State (IS). Likewise, the civilian authorities are expected to be purged of pro-YPG elements, clearing the path for Turkish forces to monitor the area jointly with their US partners. Cavusoglu stressed the accord was “beyond a legal document" and "a road map that will affect relations between [our] two countries.”  (Al-Monitor)

**********************

Thus begins the latest chapter in our long history of first using and then abandoning the Kurds. This is a dismal history extending back for decades. 

In the 70s, with backing and encouragement from Nixon, Kissinger and the Shah, the Kurds rose up against Saddam Hussein. After a few years, we tired of this. Saddam and the Shah reached an accommodation and the Kurds were left high and dry. When Barzani appealed to the US for assistance, Kissinger reminded him that “covert action should not be confused with missionary work.”

After the First Gulf War, we actively encouraged the Shia in the south and the Kurds in the north to rise up against Saddam. When they did just that, we became frightened by the possible consequences of those rebellions. We lost heart and abandoned those we encouraged to rebel to their fate at the hands of the Republican Guard.

The Kurds are not blameless in this woeful history. The various Kurdish factions have betrayed each other and made bad decisions repeatedly over the years. It’s a sad history. 

In this latest iteration, Washington and Ankara have agreed to remove all YPG/YPJ forces out of Manbij and eventually establish joint US-Turkish patrols in the region. In Washington’s defense, we have never been thrilled by the YPG decision to cross the Euphrates and liberate Manbij. We knew this would drive Ankara insane and never supported this longstanding Rojava objective. However, the YPG has fought our war against IS with skill, courage and sacrifice. In exchange we have made them the bane of both Ankara and Damascus. The conditions for another betrayal of the Kurds are ripe.

In my opinion we were right in coming to the Kurds aid at the siege of Kobani in 2014. We were right to send fifty or so Green Berets to work with the YPG to fight the IS jihadis. We should never have made them our proxy force in our effort to oust Assad. We should have encouraged them to seek agreement with Damascus. Everyone from the SF light weapons leader working with a YPG company commander to the CJTFOIR Commander should have encouraged this. But a leopard can’t change his spots and we can’t stop kowtowing to the Neocons and Likudniks.  

But back to the June meeting between Pompeo and Cavusoglu in Washington. The rub in this agreement will be in how each side views the Manbij Military Council (MMC). The MMC is closely allied with the YPG both militarily and politically. It is largely Arab, but sympathetic to Rojava Kurdish causes. CJTFOIR claims there are very few YPG in Manbij and the YPG claims they are withdrawing their advisors in compliance with this agreement. The US and now the French forces will remain along with the MMC, which CJTFOIR calls its ally in the fight against the jihadis. I doubt this is what Cavusoglu had in mind in his talks with Pompeo. When Ankara starts whining about the MMC, will we abandon them as well? What price are we willing to pay, or are we willing to have the Kurds pay, for our continued access to Incirlik Air Base? Maybe the Kurds are asking the same questions. 

**********************

On June 6, Mays al-Kareidi, a spokeswoman for the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), made an official statement announcing that the SDC is ready for a direct negotiations with Damascus.

According to the statement, SDC Co-Chair Ilham Ehmed declared its readiness for negotiations with the Syrian government without any preconditions. The SDC leader even claimed that an intra-Syrian dialogue without “external interference” is the only solution.

To make the situation clear, the SDC is another brand created to hide the YPG/YPD dominance within the SDF. Ilham Ehmed is a Kurd, a senior member of the PYD.

Just a few months ago, an official position of the SDF/SDC was that the group does not cooperate with the Damascus government or Russia. Furthermore, the SDF has repeatedly accused the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance of cooperating with ISIS and carrying out aggressive acts against the “democratic northern Syria” controlled by the SDF. It looks that this strategy may have been re-shaped a little bit.  (SouthFront)

**********************

A bright spot in this situation is that the Kurds and their Arab allies in the Syrian Democratic Council may be coming to the realization that their best interest is served in seeking an accommodation with Damascus. Perhaps they are finally aware of the continuing pattern of betrayal/abandonment in US-Kurdish relations. My guess is that the Russian Reconciliation Center will actively encourage both this realization and an eventual Kurdish reconciliation with Damascus.

TTG

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/us-turkey-reconciliation-pompeo.html

https://thedefensepost.com/2018/06/05/manbij-ypg-us-turkey/

https://southfront.org/ypg-announces-withdrawal-from-manbij-turkey-says-kurdish-forces-to-surrender-us-supplied-weapons/

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/06/282967.htm

https://southfront.org/manbij-consequences-ypg-political-leadership-says-its-ready-to-negotiate-with-damascus/

A Poisoned Chalice by David Habakkuk - Re-published 6 June 2018

 

(This is the post that Mezvinsky was answering)

The proposals that Israel should be admitted to NATO, discussed by Clifford Kiracofe in a post not long ago, provide yet another illustration of the inability of so many of that country's most committed supporters, both in United States and elsewhere in the West, to grasp the suicidal nature of the course they have encouraged it to follow.

At a time when the waves of unrest sweeping the Arab world are calling fundamentally into question the ability of the United States to persuade governments in crucial countries – above all Egypt – to act in ways which Israel wants, support for that country in some of the traditionally most loyal allies of the US has been collapsing. Certainly, the Israeli government's presentation of its policies towards the Palestinians – and also Lebanon and Iran – as the unavoidable defensive responses of a beleaguered outpost of Western civilisation, confronted by that civilisation's implacable Arab and Muslim enemies, retains powerful traction, particularly among neoconservatives, in Europe as in the United States.

 

So in Britain for example a prominent neoconservative, Michael Gove – Education Secretary in the current Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition government – has argued in his influential polemic on the Islamist threat to Western civilisation, Celsius 7/7, that Israel must be defended all costs because it 'is an integral part of the West, a vessel for its values, an example of its virtues and is hated not for what it does but what it is'.

But neoconservatives like Gove – who in 2008 described the invasion of Iraq as ‘a proper British foreign policy success’ – are not being entirely successful in persuading their own peoples. While the events of the past decade have encouraged a wave of Islamophobia in Europe, as in the United States, this has signally failed to produce an increased sense of solidarity with Israel among the population at large. The annual poll of perceptions of the global role of different countries done for the BBC World Service, published earlier this month, showed a marginal improvement in Israel's worldwide rating, which still however left Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea as the only countries surveyed ranked as having a more negative influence.  Among the generally very negative views of the country in Europe, a particularly dramatic change was the increase in negative ratings in the UK from 50% to 66% – with only 14% now giving the country a positive rating.

 

"Mick" Trainor - dead at 89

I was lucky enough to have some wonderful friends in the military; enlisted men too numerous to list, Colonel Robert Sawyer, Colonel David Hackworth and Lt. General  Bernard Trainor, USMC come to mind immediately. 

Mick was a product of Jesuit education at Holy Cross.  He was an absolutely no BS marine.  No swagger sticks, no Sam Browne belt, none of that kind of swagger appealed to him.  He was a grunt's grunt.  This is high praise from me.   In character he was "a good and faithful tiger."  He was very sharp in the mind and vigorous in the body until late in his term of life.  He was wryly, humorously resigned to man's fate. I remember sitting across the table from him on St. Patrick's Day watching him eat corned beef and cabbage.  To accompany that he buttered up crackers and then salted them.  He said to me that he often visited his mother in the old people's home she lived in.  "Pat, you should see the people there with her.  Husks of humans, mere husks, you don't want to live that long."  And then he reached for another cracker.

He was Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations in USMC headquarters when the catastrophic Beirut barracks bombing occurred.  It was understood that but for that he would have been the next Commandant of the United States Marine Corps.

In retirement he was the military correspondent of the New York Times and wrote (with Michael Gordon) several excellent books.

He was a wonderful friend.  pl

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/04/obituaries/bernard-e-trainor-dead.html

"Emic" and Etic" Knowledge of Reform - Re-published 5 June 2018

 

"Once you get the genie out of the bottle, you cannot predict what will happen," says Mohamed Kamal, a political science professor at Cairo University and a member of the influential Policies Secretariat in the ruling National Democratic Party.  "When you use a religious discourse, no one can counter your argument or argue against you," he says. "In that case, you'll be arguing against Islam and against the Koran. You'll no longer be a political opponent. Rather, you'll be an infidel.""  Shadid

Salman Rushdie recently wrote that the time is ripe for a transforming "Reformation" within Islam.  He said that the time had come for Muslims to see their revelation as occurring within history rather than above it.  Rushdie is probably more directly interested in the possibility of this kind of Reform than most people since he has been the target of several "fatwas" declaring him to be outside Islam, an "apostate" and therefore not protected from the wrath of the Believers.

One might ask if his opinion in this matter is shared by many of the Believers, especially since the opinion is his. There have been any number of attempts in Islamic history to place Islam on a more "rationalist" and less "pietist" course.  In the first centuries of Islam, one of the most powerful competing schools of philosophy, theology and law in the Abbasid Caliphate of Baghdad was that of the "Mu'taziliin" (my own peculiar transliteration).  They sought to relate the message of the Revelation to the knowledge they had acquired of classical Hellenistic and Byzantine learning through their conquests.  For a time they prospered, and there was at least one Caliph who was a member of their school of thinking.  Then, the forces of reaction came to the fore, the "Mu'taziliin" were overthrown with much bloodshed, crucifixions, beheading etc, and "pietism" became the guiding force of Sunni Islam and has  remained such to this day.  Oddly enough, the thinking of the "Mu'taziliin" survives only among the Zaidi Shia of Yemen and in Indonesia.  As I mentioned, there have any number of attempts at reform, some of them claiming large numbers of adherents, and having the protection of princes lucky enough to live beyond the reach of majority opinion.  All of them failed in the end.  As a result, Sunni Islam remains a faith so closely wedded to scripture, precedent and a consensus of conformity that it has changed little in form or doctrine in a thousand years.  It is not surprising that pious Muslims still speak of the Crusades, they are still living in the mindset of that time.  Some will argue that we are as well.  I think not.

The recent American wars against what is euphemistically called "Islamic Extremism" have placed Islam under great stress.  The survival and prosperity of the Islamic Community is always at the front of the minds of Muslims.  The level of pressure and violence against Jihadis is seen by a lot of Muslims as something that threatens to spill over into a general hostility to Muslims.  This frightens them.  As a result, there is now great ferment among the 'Ulema (scholars) of the Sunni world to include such centers of fermentation as al-Azhar and al-Zeituna in Cairo and Tunis respectively.  The relevant discussion there seek a new consensus (Ijma') centered around the question of what it means to be a Muslim in the  21st Century CE.  What could be a more important question?

Are the "moderate" Islamists of the type described in this article also seekers for a "reasonable" answer to the same question or are they just "shamming" in order to reach power so that they can impose their constipated view of religion and  law on the unfortunate inhabitants of Islamic countries?  There are a lot of Islamists (both Sunni and Shia) who wear nice, Western clothes.  A lot of them are "shamming."  The goal of every Islamist I ever met was ultimately to impose Sharia law.  Those of you who were trained in anthropology know the difference betwee "Emic," and Etic" knowledge.  This distinction is particularly important in this case.

Let us not be so foolish as to believe what they say of themselves.  Let us find the truth before we accept their words.

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/07/AR2005080701000.html

This sounds like "the cure."

 

"The technology is a "living drug" made from a patient's own cells at one of the world's leading centres of cancer research.

Dr Steven Rosenberg, chief of surgery at the National Cancer Institute, told the BBC: "We're talking about the most highly personalised treatment imaginable."

It remains experimental and still requires considerably more testing before it can be used more widely, but this is how it works: it starts by getting to know the enemy.

A patient's tumour is genetically analysed to identify the rare changes that might make the cancer visible to the immune system.

Out of the 62 genetic abnormalities in this patient, only four were potential lines of attack.

Next researchers go hunting. A patient's immune system will already be attacking the tumour, it's just losing the fight between white blood cells and cancer.

The scientists screen the patient's white blood cells and extract those capable of attacking the cancer.

These are then grown in huge quantities in the laboratory.

Around 90 billion were injected back into the 49-year-old patient, alongside drugs to take the brakes off the immune system."  BBC

-----------

That is she kayaking about.  pl

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-44338276

Mezvinsky on Zionism - re-published 4 June 2018

 
Having read with interest David Habakkuk's article,I am motivated to write a brief comment on Zionism. (I may post another comment at another time about the advocacy of a two state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.)

Habakkuk opines categorically that "the whole Zionist enterprise was hopeless from the start." The growth and development since 1948 and the present strength of Israel, even with its internal and external problems and its oppressive policies and actions, make Habakkuk's statement wishful thinking rather than proven fact.

I am personally inclined to think (or perhaps guess) that the Zionist state will ultimately fail. As an historian , not a prophet,however,I neither believe failure is imminent nor absolutely certain to occur in the foreseeable future. I realize that United States backing and support has been essential for Israel's survival to date and will almost certainly be necessary for continued survival of that state. Although changes have occurred and are continuing to occur in United States public opinion concerning Israel, the United States government remains overwhelmingly supportive and protective of the Zionist state.

 

Razan al-Najjar (F B Ali)

Razan al-Najjar died on Friday, June 1^st.

She was a 21-year old Palestinian nurse and paramedic. And a mother.

She was killed while running (along with other paramedics) towards the Gaza border fence with Israel.

They were running to treat some Palestinian protesters who had been wounded by shots fired from across the border.

Like the others with her, she was wearing her white paramedic uniform and waving her arms above her head as she ran towards the fence.

An Israeli sniper on the other side of the fence aimed at her, and put a bullet in her chest.

Razan al-Najjar is dead. Like the 120 or so others killed at the fence in the last couple of months.

Razan al-Najjar is dead. The Israeli military says it will investigate.   

Razan al-Najjar is dead. Is there anything further to say?

Oh! yes, one thing: I prefer this picture of hers to the other one.

 

Open Thread 3 June 2018

pl

"We're taking names..." Ambassador Nikki Haley

"Washington is exerting pressure on Turkey to make it abandon the plans to purchase Russia S-400 Triumf state-of-the-art air defense systems. So far, Ankara stood tall refusing to bow. US Congress is already considering the proposals on halting US arms sales to that country."  Korzun

"Unlike Turkey, India is not a NATO ally but its desire to acquire the Triumf triggers a negative reaction in the US. American lawmakers not only express concern over the planned deal but also issue warnings that sensitive American military technology may be banned from being shared with India in future. According to House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry, “There is a lot of concern in the US administration and Congress with the S-400.” India’s decision will be made final before the October Russia-India summit. During the informal talks in Sochi in May 2018, President Putin and Prime Minister Modi discussed the ways to get around the US potential sanctions when the deal goes through. Both countries have pledged to jointly create a plan to keep it out of CAATSA. New Delhi has just concluded price talks on the S-400 deal with Moscow, saying it will go ahead, no matter what the US says or does.

Those who follow the news on arms trade know well that India is interested in purchasing 22 American Predator Guardian drones for its Navy. It’s also willing to acquire the weapon the US has not sold anyone so far: 80-100 Avenger (Predator C) armed drones for the Air Force. The price may be as high as $8 billion. The F-16 production on Indian soil is also in doubt. All these projects are questioned as the US sticks to its guns implementing the “do it or else” policy. But it will hardly work with India, a nation known for its independent foreign policy. It has never bowed to any pressure from outside since its independence.

Iraq, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, Morocco, Indonesia and Vietnam are among the countries threatened by sanctions if they go on with the plans to purchase Russian weapons. Many of them are particularly interested in the S-400."  Korzun 

https://southfront.org/us-warns-india-not-to-buy-russian-weapons/

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America leads the way!  Or else.  Well, folks the international situation would be at least this bad with the wandering basket case Hillary Clinton in charge.

It appears that Israel is wasting American money by maintaining its own ambassador at the UN since they already have Nikki Haley.  They should make her status official and save money.  Yesterday she vetoed Kuwait's draft resolution on Gaza and was joined by no other country on that.  Then she offered a US resolution condemning Hamas for the Palestinian deaths on the Gaza border and was joined by none.  Not even the usual European toadies would sign up to support that.  Haley must be planning to run for president on the new Ziotrumpian Party ticket.

The control wielded by the Zionists over Trump appears to be complete at this point.   I doubt if Trump really understands anything about the Middle East.  His "thinking" appears to be a melange and reflection of the Grima Wormtongue murmurings of his family members, the flickering images on the Fox channels, (Hannity the Wise, Jack Keane and Stewart Varney) and his own lack of a reflective mind. 

The Saudis get s big response from him as well.  But, after all, they have disposable cash.  They don't have as much as they did, but they still have a lot.  That counts in the narrow world of The Art of the Deal."

In the arms trade, the objective seems to be to dragoon all these countries into accepting their roles as satrapies of the Peacock Throne,  Will that work?  We will see.

The name of US Pacific Command has been changed to US Indo-Pacific Command.  I don't quite see the significance of that unless it is accompanied by AOR boundary changes in the Unified Command Plan (UCP).  pl 

Twelver Shiism and Political Power by Patrick Lang - Re-published 1 June 2018

In a number of different settings I have recently heard the opinion voiced that Ithna'ashari  (Twelver) Shia 'Ulema (scholars) have traditionally chosen to hold themselves apart from political power in whatever state they have inhabited and that they believe in something akin to the Western notion of a proper separation of church and state.  Usually, the same speaker or writer will accompany this with a description of the late Ayatollah Khomeini as a "heretic" for holding a different view of this matter.  I find these positions to be inadequate in both statements for two broad reasons:

-Historically

Shiism began as a movement of the underdog in Iraq in the first century of the Islamic era.  The Arabians who defeated the Sassanian Persians at the Battle of Qadisiyah under the beduin general Muthanna believed that the spoils of empire were rightly theirs.  In Iraq they established garrison towns like Kufah and settled down there amid a captive Mesopotamian population to enjoy the fruits of victory.  To divide the "loot" they devised a list of the "entitled" called the "Diwan."  One's placement on this list determined how large an annual subvention one received.  The higher you were on the list, the bigger the share. This position was determined by a number of factors.  Most important of these were the date of your acceptance of Islam (the earlier the better) and secondly the level of your prominence in Meccan, Medinan or other Arabian society.  In conformity to one's position, a regular payment was received from the treasury (beit al-mal) of the community.  Over time more and more of the conquered population were converted to Islam, accepting in the process the many intangible benefits brought by being a member of the Islamic community. Unfortunately for them, this did not generally include inscription in the "Diwan" or the payments from the public purse that went with this.  As a result, the converted, "mawali" in Arabic felt cheated of what they thought to be their rightful share of the money.  This led to great bitterness among the "mawali" against the Arabians and especially against the "Ummayad" Arabian dynasty of Caliphs soon established in Damascus.  This bitterness led to adoption by the Mawali of the cause of the rights of the family of the Prophet whom they believed had been wrongly deprived of the succession to the leadership of the Islamic politico-religious community, the "Umma."  In the early period the family of the Prophet was represented by the Caliph Ali who the Shia incorrectly believe was murdered in Najaf by agents of the Damascus (Sunni) crowd, then by the subjugation of Hassan, Ali's son and the Prophet's grandson.  The "grand finale" for the Mawali (who were also known as “Shiat Ali – “The party (Shiat) of Ali”) was the battlefield death of Hussein, Hassan's younger brother at Karbala at the hands of the Sunni general 'Umar ibn Sa'd (of malodorous memory).  Following Hussein's death, the "Shiat Ali" (Party of Ali) were beaten into submission by the Arabian Sunni 'Ummayad Caliphs ruling from Damascus and remained a more or less permanent underclass in the 'Umma until the 16th Century C.E.  Sunni Caliphs came and went, first the 'Ummayads, then the Abbasids ruling from Baghdad.  Throughout this period, the Shia 'Ulema were deprived of political power, not because they preferred to be without political power, but because they were not able to seize it.  Islam in its pure form envisions a world theocratic state in which all aspects of life are integrated into a whole, a "seamless garment."  These Shia of the Middle Ages (al-Qurun al-Wusta) were people living as best they could in the direction of this ideal.  In this period there lived nine more leaders of the Shia community whom they considered to be "divinely selected."  They were descendants of the Prophet and thought to be vessels of special grace from God.  The Shia would have liked nothing better than to install these "Imams" as they called them in supreme political power, but they lacked the means.  The Sunni 'Ummayad, and Abbasid Caliphs stood in the way as did a variety of Sunni Turkish Sultans who often wielded the real power behind the Caliphs.  Faced with this situation, the Shia retreated into development of their religious sciences within the "Ghettos" of Najaf and Karbala and accepted the status quo with what grace they could muster.